Super Bowl Props Thread

Brady total completions over.

He will throw all day long on philly. Philly is best vs the run.
I can see janes white burkhead getting 6-8 grabs

Cooks will maKe 4 grabs

AMENDOLA will make 6 grabs

Hogan will make 5 grabs.

Dwayne Allen 2 grabs.

Gronkowski 8-12 grabs.

I see an easy over for brady here as Foles will have some 2 and outs. Also pats as their usual strategy should be trailing at halftime which means brady will come out firing. I see an easy 15-18 completions in the second half when the pats tire out the eagles.

The first half brady by design won’t get tons of completions. The first half is a throw away half for Bellichek. He uses the first half to see the opponents plays and formations and then shuts it down after halftime. He even sends those bullshit 3 man rushes like he did to bortles to see all their route concepts and to give the opposing offensive coordinator a false sense of security. They feel wow I have Bellichek beat today until he burns your ass after halftime.
 
In both super bowls vs Seattle and Falcons I watched them.

The pats vs zone will throw to the running backs like crazy. Shane Vereen was targeted 10 times in the first half vs Seattle. James white had 15 catches vs falcons.

The eagles like all other nfl teams should play scared. So they play zone because they are scared of brady.

Brady will carve your defense up vs zone. They will clear out zones by running receivers deep and then releasing the running backs into those vacated zones. Nfl linebackers aren’t good enough to stop this play because they don’t understand the game of football like brady does. The average nfl linebacker has like 10% of football Iq compared to Brady’s which is over 100%. This is why no one can stop brady. His understanding of the game is equivalent to a world class Chess player.

I think at minimum there is 10 easy completions to running backs.
 
The big key here is Fletcher Cox. He is a destroyer inside. The best d lineman in the league can absolute force. The uneducated football pundits and media alike will say then oh cox will be in Brady’s face all day long.

Absolute wrong take-

Cox is what will make Brady’s completion prop win

Because of Cox expect McDaniels to have a game plan of quick passes screens slants dump offs to running backs. Pats will get rid of the ball quick on short passes.

Brady over all day
 
Bar I think the philly linebackers is what McDaniels will target.

They haven’t seen a qb like brady and offense in the nfc that runs a patriot style system.

Seattle has a vaunted pass rush. In that game brady wAs firing very short quick passes early on. Getting easy completions. Just to tire out Seattle pass rushers.
Pats seem to win all the time but in key games they are rarely winning big at halftime like 24-7? It’s because they play to win the second half and they know if they win the 2 nd half they will win the game.

I don’t see may Deion Lewis rushes. Probably just like cs Atlanta they will just throw all day and tire out the eagles.
 
D-Woww said:
Sammy thinks Brady is going 50 for 50
Click to expand...


Eagles may win. I’m pulling for them because I feel they were the top team this year and it’s a great story for Foles.

But brady will throw as we already know the entire offense is short passes with the spread.

Opportunities will be there for the eagles to win. They are always there , just need to execute like the giants did.
 
MANEKI NEKO said:
Brady total completions over.

He will throw all day long on philly. Philly is best vs the run.
I can see janes white burkhead getting 6-8 grabs

Cooks will maKe 4 grabs

AMENDOLA will make 6 grabs

Hogan will make 5 grabs.

Dwayne Allen 2 grabs.

Gronkowski 8-12 grabs.

I see an easy over for brady here as Foles will have some 2 and outs. Also pats as their usual strategy should be trailing at halftime which means brady will come out firing. I see an easy 15-18 completions in the second half when the pats tire out the eagles.

The first half brady by design won’t get tons of completions. The first half is a throw away half for Bellichek. He uses the first half to see the opponents plays and formations and then shuts it down after halftime. He even sends those bullshit 3 man rushes like he did to bortles to see all their route concepts and to give the opposing offensive coordinator a false sense of security. They feel wow I have Bellichek beat today until he burns your ass after halftime.
Click to expand...

I think eagles might very well have some success shortening this game and wearing pats d down with their stable of backs.
 
MANEKI NEKO said:
They could do that. It seems like a good plan to beat the Pats. Running on them will give you a chance to win.
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More than just running I think pats front 7 kinda slow and vulnerable to backs in middle of field catching passes. Think it safe to assume hoody gonna figure out what foles does well/is most comfortable running and take that away, I have no doubt if that what he chooses to do pats will be successful in doing so. I do think that will give eagles rushing attack a advantage tho. Unlike the titans I don't think pats can focus on taking away the eagles rushing attack as even with foles as trigger man their passing game is much more dangerous and versatile.
 
I dunno what the number on Brady completions is but certainly not saying the over a bad play. He definitely gonna be throwing a lot one would assume, and eagles play lot of zone which he tends to carve up with the short/intermediate routes. Really think only way the over wouldn't hit is A) it really high and B) the potential of eagles offense to limit his opportunities.
 
MANEKI NEKO said:
Bar I think the philly linebackers is what McDaniels will target.

They haven’t seen a qb like brady and offense in the nfc that runs a patriot style system.

Seattle has a vaunted pass rush. In that game brady wAs firing very short quick passes early on. Getting easy completions. Just to tire out Seattle pass rushers.
Pats seem to win all the time but in key games they are rarely winning big at halftime like 24-7? It’s because they play to win the second half and they know if they win the 2 nd half they will win the game.

I don’t see may Deion Lewis rushes. Probably just like cs Atlanta they will just throw all day and tire out the eagles.
Click to expand...

They win the second half/game cause Hoody just head and shoulders above everyone else when it comes to in game adjustments.

The reason they not up big on teams in big games is cause they facing teams just as or more talented than them in many cases and they win late cause hoody and co figure out what their opponent is having success doing and fix it.

It would be nice to see another staff in the league with some balls, creativity, brains or whatever and figure out they need to be prepared to completely change themselves in the second half instead of ignorantly expecting what worked early to continue. In that sense it would be great to see rams here cause mcvay appears to me like the kind of forward thinking aggressive offensive mind that would be prepared for such. I do think this eagles coaching staff is pretty good tho and could possibly be up to the challenge. Certainly more so than majority of bum staffs who playing checkers to hoody's chess.
 
cubsker said:
lets be honest, the pats have won their last two SB because the opposing coach went full braindead moron. they aren't some unbeatable juggernaut.
Click to expand...

Very very true statement.

The opportunities to beat the pats are there in almost every super bowl except for the Reid McMabb team.

Pats are just better closers.

Giants closed them twice because those pats teams had crappy secondaries. They allowed Eli to win with 2 late drives. The secondary blew it.

Ironically the secondary then win the gane vs Seattle. Bill beefed up the secondary with Revis and browner and butler.
Then vs Atlanta the defense helps win the game again with the Hightower sack fumble and the late sack on matt Ryan
 
Yes 2 da bank.

Brady completions is 25.5.

But I feel he can get 10 completions in a quarter.

Eagles will play zone. No team has the balls to challenge brady and play man but that’s the only wG to defeat him.

With the zone I can see 1 quarter where brady gets an easy 10 completions. If he scores on a long drive it’s at least 6-7 passes on that drive

Even a drive where pats get one first down and punt he could still get an easy 3-4 completions.

This play is the best because pats have no interest running. They will spread out the eagles 5 wide sets to put people like Daniel elderberry 1 on 1 vs the Gronk,
They will attack the philly linebackers by making them cover guys like hogan.

Brady will attempt minimum 10-15 passes just to his running backs alone.
 
Deon Lewis under 12.5 carries. I’m thinking the patriots always change things up and other backs will get more carries than usual. Moreover I think they won’t be able to run too much on the cheatriots. This and $2.50 will get you a cup of Starbucks coffee but I’m going for it. Good luck all
 
widder said:
Deon Lewis under 12.5 carries. I’m thinking the patriots always change things up and other backs will get more carries than usual. Moreover I think they won’t be able to run too much on the cheatriots. This and $2.50 will get you a cup of Starbucks coffee but I’m going for it. Good luck all
Click to expand...
Of course I meant run too much on the eagles
 
MANEKI NEKO said:
They could do that. It seems like a good plan to beat the Pats. Running on them will give you a chance to win.
Click to expand...

maybe but look at the stats of teams that run on the pats in the first half semi successfully and what they get in the second half.....basically nothing....and then they will rely on foles to win and he's going up against the goat and an excellent d.....if the eagles have a 14-17 point lead at half then they might win....otherwise they will get beat and beat pretty good
 
BJPLAYER said:
sorry....wrong thread....i like hogan over 40 yds receiving...he's healthy and tuned up and will see some looks i think
Click to expand...

I think Hogan gets lots of looks also. He’s been quiet lately. Pats do this and then unleash him for 7 grabs for 88 yards in the Super Bowl
 
Over 7.5 players with a reception for the Eagles. I like the same for the Pats for less. But the Eagles one should def hit.
 
another prop worth a look i think is dorsett over 9.5 yards receiving....he may never get a look but brady tends to spread it out to whomever is open or mismatched and when eagles go man which they do regularly putting robinson on amendola and jenkins on gronk leaving the possibility of mills on dorsett and that's a mismatch....and dorsett is rumored to be having a good practice week
 
Here are some cross sports props with NBA guys. Posting them here and will look tonight at work (can't log onto sportsbooks at work). Sometimes they give some decent spots if you got a good NBA guy like BAR who can see a line to exploit.

CS1.JPG CS2.JPG CS3.JPG
 
Chris Paul points and assists vs Brady completions is interesting. CP3 last 9 games have been 13, 19, 41, 19, 22, 44, 25, 25, 33 combined points and assists. But this is a big game vs his buddy Lebron and that sorry ass Cavs defense that I think CP3 can do some damage. Just hope Jimmy let's him get a few shots off. Gonna hit CP3 for a small bet to make this Houston/Cavs game interesting tonight.
 
22 points and assists by CP3 at halftime. I'll take that. With this sorry ass Cavs defense though CP3 won't play the 4Q.
 
MANEKI NEKO said:
Yes 2 da bank.

Brady completions is 25.5.

But I feel he can get 10 completions in a quarter.

Eagles will play zone. No team has the balls to challenge brady and play man but that’s the only wG to defeat him.

With the zone I can see 1 quarter where brady gets an easy 10 completions. If he scores on a long drive it’s at least 6-7 passes on that drive

Even a drive where pats get one first down and punt he could still get an easy 3-4 completions.

This play is the best because pats have no interest running. They will spread out the eagles 5 wide sets to put people like Daniel elderberry 1 on 1 vs the Gronk,
They will attack the philly linebackers by making them cover guys like hogan.

Brady will attempt minimum 10-15 passes just to his running backs alone.
Click to expand...

Pats ml is down under -200 a few places. Starting to think that the way to go, take pats to win and be done with it. Didn't expect it to get this cheap. Hell I can prob find a large NCAA hoops fav like Ohio st money line andget it down to like -130ish. I don't see much sense in playing anything else when this the play I'm becoming most sure of.
 
Dilly gets said in a commercial before a td is scored -215

Clement rush & rec. o24.5

Elliott pts o7.5-110
 
Lol, when exactly do they start counting the dilly prop? I'm sure it be in pretty much every group of commercials, prob one before kick but that probably doesn't count. So all ya need a punt, turnover, time out, fg, feels like you basically wagering against a touchdown being 1st thing to happen, actually seems like really good odds when ya look at it that way! Might have to join you.

Like clement prop as well, think pats vunerable to backs as pass catchers.
 
Posted this in my own thread, but cross posting it here...

The NFL, has at least one 60-second spot in the game, Ad Age reports. Expect to see quarterback Eli Manning and the New York Giants offensive line, per a tweet from the league.

Eli Manning appears in a commercial -350 (5Dimes). Going to be pissed off if this is during halftime.
 
Who needs a run gane to win?

Brady can just throw all game long. They will use that strategy if they need to.
 
For anyone who likes to play 1Q totals like I do, I took Patriots o6.5 -110, but just came across a prop that Patriots score a TD in 1Q +110 that I should have taken instead.
 
Fondybadger said:
For anyone who likes to play 1Q totals like I do, I took Patriots o6.5 -110, but just came across a prop that Patriots score a TD in 1Q +110 that I should have taken instead.
Click to expand...

Pats have started slow of late and havent scored in the 1Q in any of their 7 Super Bowls....what's your thoughts here?
 
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