Super Bowl - Patriots V. Seahawks Discussion

jimmymo said:
First spot open for me is at -5 now..........don't really think it goes higher, but rolling dice and waiting
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Do I need to get golf tickets or do you just want to be amongst the Seattle people all day?
 
I dont think the ne offense can give the Seattle defense trouble like the Rams did this year. Seattle or nothing I think.
 
lvmike32 said:
I dont think the ne offense can give the Seattle defense trouble like the Rams did this year. Seattle or nothing I think.
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For sure.

The equalizer is turnovers.

Can New England make Sam and company uncomfortable?

These playoffs have been abysmal on offense for the Patriots.

They averaged 3.2 ypp today. Before we use the weather as an excuse, that average was actually better in the 2h during the snow.

Last week they averaged. 3.9 ypp.

Total yards amassed these playoffs by NE --

206 and 248.

Bottom line is that the New England offense faces two excellent defenses. Houston is probably the best in the league. Luckily, the defense helped them to win those games.

What's not so lucky? Now they face another great defense.

Should be tough sledding on offense. The only part to victory is forcing turnovers and having short fields.

The Rams last two games up in Seattle offensively are exceptions, not the norm. I wouldn't use those as part of this handicap.

In reality, this ML is CHEAP.

I have 25 units riding on the future. As an independent bet, I believe Seattle ML has hella value.

23-13 or so seems prudent.
 
Nice on the future. Lot of options. Yeah Puka and Adams are the best wr duo in nfl imo. Puka catches everything. Add in Stafford and its lethal. What does ne have? Diggs. Not nearly good enough. I'd say Seattle in a cakewalk but we know that doesn't happen for strange reasons. I'd say SF was a much bigger offensive threat than ne and we saw how those games turned out. Ne did nothing vs Denver except for 4 big Maye scrambles. All my analysis says Seattle big but gotta respect oddsmakers at 4.5 open.
 
Missing Charbonnet was big for Seattle.

I want to really like Seattle but I do have fear of Darnold throwing a big INT to cost them the game.

I wonder if Gonzalez shadows JSN…..
 
B.A.R. said:
For sure.

The equalizer is turnovers.

Can New England make Sam and company uncomfortable?

These playoffs have been abysmal on offense for the Patriots.

They averaged 3.2 ypp today. Before we use the weather as an excuse, that average was actually better in the 2h during the snow.

Last week they averaged. 3.9 ypp.

Total yards amassed these playoffs by NE --

206 and 248.

Bottom line is that the New England offense faces two excellent defenses. Houston is probably the best in the league. Luckily, the defense helped them to win those games.

What's not so lucky? Now they face another great defense.

Should be tough sledding on offense. The only part to victory is forcing turnovers and having short fields.

The Rams last two games up in Seattle offensively are exceptions, not the norm. I wouldn't use those as part of this handicap.

In reality, this ML is CHEAP.

I have 25 units riding on the future. As an independent bet, I believe Seattle ML has hella value.

23-13 or so seems prudent.
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Yeah, this is pretty spot on. And it's not entirely impossible that New England could force some turnovers here. The Pats defense isn't elite, but it's by far the best unit that Seattle has faced in a long time and Gonzalez as good as it gets.

With all that said. 4.5 and the -230 seem very light.
 
Just my random thoughts for postseason games

Seattle O & D is good, but so are the Patriots.
Seattle played Rams team for the 3rd time, all games were close, the muffed punt I feel cost them the game, and the Rams D just didnt make any important plays. Mcvay's clock managment to end the half also cost them, and in my non gambling opinion, I would have kicked the FG to make it a 1 point game. You have almost 4 minutes, 3 timesouts, plus the two minute. Need a FG to win if the D gets a stop, and if Seattle takes it down and scores a TD, its still a 1 possession game.
SF game I feel that score was all one sided, game was done in the 1Q it seemed- too many injuries on both sides for SF. JSN is one amazing WR! I give that guy some major props on how good and calm he is! Unbelievable talent.

Pats played top two defenses in the league, but they did not play the best QBs. Their offense has not been as great as it has been in the regular season, but I cant overlook the conditions both their games were in. Their D has also started to play better than the regular season in my opinion, and clicking at the right time. Run game is there and the Sea D can be ran on in my opinion. Maye has been good with his feet getting first downs, but he has held the ball a bit too long, again, weather in the two post season games was a huge factor.

This should be a close game in my opinion and it will come down to who makes that costly error. I've taken Pats+5.5 and +205 when it opened. Line should be Seattle -3/3.5 in my opinion.

GL to everyone
 
Vrabel has a little Belechick in him as far as game planning a defensive strategy to confuse a QB. He will take away JSN and take his chances with the others beating him.
Everyone is saying Seattle’s defense is great. We need to define great because the Rams went up and down the field against them 2 games in a row. Great defenses usually stop great offenses. I think Vrabel tries to keep Seattle’s offense off the field and turns this into a 20-17, 17-13 type game. Overreaction Monday with Darnold. His body of work also includes imploding vs defenses who can pressure. Also, anyone notice how predictable the Rams pass rush was and when they did disguise or stunt, they broke through Seattle’s oline? Shula sucked last night as DC. That’s where the Rams lost that game last night.
 
wiseplayer said:
Vrabel has a little Belechick in him as far as game planning a defensive strategy to confuse a QB. He will take away JSN and take his chances with the others beating him.
Everyone is saying Seattle’s defense is great. We need to define great because the Rams went up and down the field against them 2 games in a row. Great defenses usually stop great offenses. I think Vrabel tries to keep Seattle’s offense off the field and turns this into a 20-17, 17-13 type game. Overreaction Monday with Darnold. His body of work also includes imploding vs defenses who can pressure. Also, anyone notice how predictable the Rams pass rush was and when they did disguise or stunt, they broke through Seattle’s oline? Shula sucked last night as DC. That’s where the Rams lost that game last night.
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Seattle and Houston and Denver get tossed around as all “great defenses”.

2 of them are on a complete other level. And Houston is on another level over Denver.

Seattle is a very physical defense, for sure and has a DL capable of wrecking the pocket. But their secondary and LB pass coverage leaves a lot to be desired.

Shula sucked bad over and over on third down. That was disappointing. Feels like a future Browns HC.
 
wizardofodd said:
Just my random thoughts for postseason games

Seattle O & D is good, but so are the Patriots.
Seattle played Rams team for the 3rd time, all games were close, the muffed punt I feel cost them the game, and the Rams D just didnt make any important plays. Mcvay's clock managment to end the half also cost them, and in my non gambling opinion, I would have kicked the FG to make it a 1 point game. You have almost 4 minutes, 3 timesouts, plus the two minute. Need a FG to win if the D gets a stop, and if Seattle takes it down and scores a TD, its still a 1 possession game.
SF game I feel that score was all one sided, game was done in the 1Q it seemed- too many injuries on both sides for SF. JSN is one amazing WR! I give that guy some major props on how good and calm he is! Unbelievable talent.

Pats played top two defenses in the league, but they did not play the best QBs. Their offense has not been as great as it has been in the regular season, but I cant overlook the conditions both their games were in. Their D has also started to play better than the regular season in my opinion, and clicking at the right time. Run game is there and the Sea D can be ran on in my opinion. Maye has been good with his feet getting first downs, but he has held the ball a bit too long, again, weather in the two post season games was a huge factor.

This should be a close game in my opinion and it will come down to who makes that costly error. I've taken Pats+5.5 and +205 when it opened. Line should be Seattle -3/3.5 in my opinion.

GL to everyone
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I agree. they should have gone for the FG to make it a one point game. They also should have gotten 3 early in the game, but went for it on 4th and 4 I think it was? I feel like this new NFL of going for it on 4th down most of the time is a little dumb sometimes. Possible great rewards with a TD or 1st Down, but sometimes just take the 3.

Back to the FG they should have gone for to make it a 1 point game, maybe McVay had no trust in his D to stop Seattle with 4 mins left.

Great write up @wizardofodd
 
Inspekdah said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2015602783232168284
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Doesn't matter who the QB was in Minnesota this year -- that wasn't a Super Bowl team.

The lack of understanding on how football teams are built and how they win is beyond comical at this point.

That being said, it's an easy point for content.

Sam has been wonderful this year. He's playing on a team built extremely well for him to succeed.

We saw the breakdowns at the end of last year when the Vikes OL fell apart.

Minnesota with Sam this year was a 10/11 win team. A better team? Absolutely. Certainly not Super Bowl contenders. That line was abysmal. No one was winning 3-4 straight games in January playing behind that group.

Shit, look at how the Lions looked defensively playing on Xmas at Minnesota. Damn near dominate! There is a reason for that, again, it's the trenches.

Seattle is so well built for Sam. Between his career resurgence and how they've built that team -- well here we are -- a chance at a ring. I'm rooting for him. It's been a great story seeing him comeback.
 
B.A.R. said:
Doesn't matter who the QB was in Minnesota this year -- that wasn't a Super Bowl team.

The lack of understanding on how football teams are built and how they win is beyond comical at this point.

That being said, it's an easy point for content.

Sam has been wonderful this year. He's playing on a team built extremely well for him to succeed.

We saw the breakdowns at the end of last year when the Vikes OL fell apart.

Minnesota with Sam this year was a 10/11 win team. A better team? Absolutely. Certainly not Super Bowl contenders. That line was abysmal. No one was winning 3-4 straight games in January playing behind that group.

Shit, look at how the Lions looked defensively playing on Xmas at Minnesota. Damn near dominate! There is a reason for that, again, it's the trenches.

Seattle is so well built for Sam. Between his career resurgence and how they've built that team -- well here we are -- a chance at a ring. I'm rooting for him. It's been a great story seeing him comeback.
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Great point @B.A.R. Raider fans love saying, "If we just would have picked him, we could have been a playoff team." Or 9er fan. "If we would have kept him in 2023, we'd be going to the Superbowl!" A lot of woulda coulda shoulda. Seattle had a missing piece and it was Sam. Nothing more nothing less.
 
Vapster said:
I agree. they should have gone for the FG to make it a one point game. They also should have gotten 3 early in the game, but went for it on 4th and 4 I think it was? I feel like this new NFL of going for it on 4th down most of the time is a little dumb sometimes. Possible great rewards with a TD or 1st Down, but sometimes just take the 3.

Back to the FG they should have gone for to make it a 1 point game, maybe McVay had no trust in his D to stop Seattle with 4 mins left.

Great write up @wizardofodd
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Well, Sean was basically correct as they couldn't stop Seattle at the end.

Yes, they got the ball back but that was going to be a miracle to get even into FG range.

I was 50/50 on kicking or not.

The kick allowed the D to give up a TD and still be in it. That should be noted.

The time management end of 1h wasn't great. Tough situation there deciding to be aggressive or not.

The Rams had this game, despite their D. The Colby drop ultimately decided it IMO. The muff punt was brutal.
 
Vapster said:
Great point @B.A.R. Raider fans love saying, "If we just would have picked him, we could have been a playoff team." Or 9er fan. "If we would have kept him in 2023, we'd be going to the Superbowl!" A lot of woulda coulda shoulda. Seattle had a missing piece and it was Sam. Nothing more nothing less.
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No doubt.

I myself underestimated how well they had built this team. I honestly had to go back and re analyze them in October. That's when it clicked for me and thankfully made the bet on them to win it all.

As a few have pointed out in this thread -- the defense is damn good but can be had at times. Vrabel and company I'm sure will be ready.

I've mentioned it before and will again -- don't take too much into account how the Rams offense played in both games in Seattle. Sometimes a matchup is a matchup. Don't forget some of these passes Stafford was dropping into receivers hands are ones that 98% of the QBs in football cannot make. LAR simply had a great mojo going offensively up in the PNW.
 
Vapster said:
Great point @B.A.R. Raider fans love saying, "If we just would have picked him, we could have been a playoff team." Or 9er fan. "If we would have kept him in 2023, we'd be going to the Superbowl!" A lot of woulda coulda shoulda. Seattle had a missing piece and it was Sam. Nothing more nothing less.
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Yeah look no farther than Geno when making the comparison.
 
B.A.R. said:
Doesn't matter who the QB was in Minnesota this year -- that wasn't a Super Bowl team.

The lack of understanding on how football teams are built and how they win is beyond comical at this point.

That being said, it's an easy point for content.

Sam has been wonderful this year. He's playing on a team built extremely well for him to succeed.

We saw the breakdowns at the end of last year when the Vikes OL fell apart.

Minnesota with Sam this year was a 10/11 win team. A better team? Absolutely. Certainly not Super Bowl contenders. That line was abysmal. No one was winning 3-4 straight games in January playing behind that group.

Shit, look at how the Lions looked defensively playing on Xmas at Minnesota. Damn near dominate! There is a reason for that, again, it's the trenches.

Seattle is so well built for Sam. Between his career resurgence and how they've built that team -- well here we are -- a chance at a ring. I'm rooting for him. It's been a great story seeing him comeback.
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Minny wasn’t a SB team either last year. They didn’t sniff a competitive quarter for the last 2 games of the year.

It’s just a X post that shows how far some of the swings are for these organizations. Darnold leading a team to a SB and the Vikings stuck with JJ and being 50 million over the cap.

Same thing with the Raiders giving up assets to relieve Seattle of Geno.

There’s one team that Sam Darnold could have gone to the SB with and he picked them in free agency. He’s got a great team around him and has been on the right track since doing what Mac Jones did this year and that’s get a PHD in football under Kyle. Perfect system for him as it’s essentially the same concepts as in SF.
 
Vapster said:
Great point @B.A.R. Raider fans love saying, "If we just would have picked him, we could have been a playoff team." Or 9er fan. "If we would have kept him in 2023, we'd be going to the Superbowl!" A lot of woulda coulda shoulda. Seattle had a missing piece and it was Sam. Nothing more nothing less.
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Yeah, I’ve seen some 9er fan say this. The 9ers aren’t even making the playoffs if Sam was their QB this year. He’s right where he needed to be to maximize his success. Running for his life with 0 weapons on the outside for most of the year doesn’t equate to success.

Raiders - yikes. His career may be over with like Geno’s likely is now.
 
Vapster said:
I agree. they should have gone for the FG to make it a one point game. They also should have gotten 3 early in the game, but went for it on 4th and 4 I think it was? I feel like this new NFL of going for it on 4th down most of the time is a little dumb sometimes. Possible great rewards with a TD or 1st Down, but sometimes just take the 3.

Back to the FG they should have gone for to make it a 1 point game, maybe McVay had no trust in his D to stop Seattle with 4 mins left.

Great write up @wizardofodd
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They never got the ball back after that 4th and goal did they (well with 10 seconds left)? Not sure what good 3 points woulda did them other than fucking up the spread? Thought broncos going for it instead of taking the fg to go up 10 was retarded, didn’t understand Ben Johnson refusing to kick fgs all playoffs, didn’t think rams had much choice but to go considering that drive ate up a bunch of clock and their d hadn’t exactly proven capable of getting off the field the entire game.
 
I thought fourth and 4 that going for it was by far the right decision.

I think Denver should have gone up the second score with a FG given pts appeared to be at a premium and weather was arriving. When a game looks like opponent might get 10-20 pts max, that score is pretty valuable. A little different than the up and down stuff in the rams/hawks.
 
RetroRetrovk said:
I thought fourth and 4 that going for it was by far the right decision.

I think Denver should have gone up the second score with a FG given pts appeared to be at a premium and weather was arriving. When a game looks like opponent might get 10-20 pts max, that score is pretty valuable. A little different than the up and down stuff in the rams/hawks.
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the fact they never got ball back kinda solidifies it was the correct call. How much heat Mcvey be getting had they kicked it then never gotten another chance which what happened. Kicking the fg wouldn’t have all a sudden got the d to get a stop.

I thought if Mcvey should get criticized for anything it was calling that timeout instead of challenging the spot on the 3rd down play.
 
2daBank said:
They never got the ball back after that 4th and goal did they (well with 10 seconds left)? Not sure what good 3 points woulda did them other than fucking up the spread? Thought broncos going for it instead of taking the fg to go up 10 was retarded, didn’t understand Ben Johnson refusing to kick fgs all playoffs, didn’t think rams had much choice but to go considering that drive ate up a bunch of clock and their d hadn’t exactly proven capable of getting off the field the entire game.
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Yeah, teams have been leaving points on the field all playoffs but there was zero reason to kick 3 with less than 5 minutes left in the game down 4. The question should be they should have tried to get it to 3 with a 2 point earlier. But losing by 1 only matters for the spread. They essentially didn’t get the ball back so it didn’t matter. 100% go there.
 
RetroRetrovk said:
I thought fourth and 4 that going for it was by far the right decision.

I think Denver should have gone up the second score with a FG given pts appeared to be at a premium and weather was arriving. When a game looks like opponent might get 10-20 pts max, that score is pretty valuable. A little different than the up and down stuff in the rams/hawks.
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If someone was doing their job and watching the weather, they'd know snow was coming and should have taken the 3 there in Denver. Absolutely agree @RetroRetrovk
 
Inspekdah said:
Yeah, teams have been leaving points on the field all playoffs but there was zero reason to kick 3 with less than 5 minutes left in the game down 4. The question should be they should have tried to get it to 3 with a 2 point earlier. But losing by 1 only matters for the spread. They essentially didn’t get the ball back so it didn’t matter. 100% go there.
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in general I think it kinda redic how little coaches seem to value points now. We went from them all being scared and always kicking to all of them going for it pretty much regardless of situations or strategy, just for the sake of not kicking. Surely there some kinda happy medium where they actually use some common freaking sense to make these decisions. I’ll never understand Ben Johnson math, not sure I recall a bears gm where going for it netted them more points than kicking all gm would have!

All that said rams going was absolutely the right move. I’m with you I thought it was odd they didn’t go for 2 also. I don’t always love some the times coaches be going for 2 and putting themselves in a spot they gotta chase points but I was kinda shocked they didn’t try to make it 28-31 there.
 
I will be in Seattle heavy. I get why the number is what it is as some of the computer models Vegas uses has it around this number. I just think it’s two different classes of teams. There are very few spots on the field where I could reasonably say “advantage New England”.

Turnovers are the great equalizer. Don’t think it matters here. Respect anyone on NE, just vehemently disagree.

I also thought the OL was fine for KC leading up to last years SB so I’ve been wrong.
 
A few quick thoughts here.....

-- Stafford played a simply amazing game and got a bit unnoticed in the loss -- people come away with misconception that Hawks D aint all that -- mistake imo
-- There are arguments that Rams "coulda, woulda, shouda," but the Hawks were a couple plays/stupid penalties away from making the game a semi-blowout
-- One big reason Rams O had a great night is that MacDonald is scared to fukk to blitz Stafford and get burned - that will not be the case with Maye

I heard a vegas book risk manager on VSIN today say that the "sharps" will be betting NE and the Under......I say good for them
 
jimmymo said:
A few quick thoughts here.....

-- Stafford played a simply amazing game and got a bit unnoticed in the loss -- people come away with misconception that Hawks D aint all that -- mistake imo
-- There are arguments that Rams "coulda, woulda, shouda," but the Hawks were a couple plays/stupid penalties away from making the game a semi-blowout
-- One big reason Rams O had a great night is that MacDonald is scared to fukk to blitz Stafford and get burned - that will not be the case with Maye

I heard a vegas book risk manager on VSIN today say that the "sharps" will be betting NE and the Under......I say good for them
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Someone has to bet the Pats, someone, somewhere….

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This seems really tough. IMO the spread is absolutely justified but at same time it’s ridiculously hard to lay it when majority these games come down to the end. I should probably hedge off my Seattle future but don’t really want to, maybe I’ll take the points for a bit but havnt decided. Helps I let it ride vs rams so still working with lot of upside. My history been to let it ride when I had one of these and often times regretting it, 😂..

I’m actually more worried bout darnold here than I was last week. Unlike rams pats will blitz the ever loving shit out of darnold and probably a bunch right up the middle. If I was ne I wouldn’t put Gonzalez on Jsn, nobody gonna stop him 1 on 1, use Gonzalez to take the other half the field away and bracket Jsn i think would make life pretty difficult.

While I think this be tougher for darnold and sea offense i also think Seattle d has a way easier task stopping pats than the rams offense. Just don’t think pats WRs gonna be getting open vs Seattle secondary and we have seen all playoffs they not great protecting maye! Maye’s legs are once again gonna have to be a big part the story but I’d think McDonnell will have a design to limit that. Short of defensive scores or setting up bunch of short fields I really don’t see this getting to 47 points. Neither offense been great in the red zone, Seattle d has been far better in that area but neither d gives up many tds. Pats offense been incredibly slow starting vs the good defenses they have faced these playoffs, don’t see much reason it be different here. I’d like to get a 23 for a 1st half under but that for sure my strongest lean at moment. Like full gm under also just don’t see much point not starting with a 1st half.
 
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All that dark magic left with Brady. The uniform doesn't have any.

I think the Seahawks win this but the line is about right IMO.
 
B.A.R. said:
Doesn't matter who the QB was in Minnesota this year -- that wasn't a Super Bowl team.

The lack of understanding on how football teams are built and how they win is beyond comical at this point.

That being said, it's an easy point for content.

Sam has been wonderful this year. He's playing on a team built extremely well for him to succeed.

We saw the breakdowns at the end of last year when the Vikes OL fell apart.

Minnesota with Sam this year was a 10/11 win team. A better team? Absolutely. Certainly not Super Bowl contenders. That line was abysmal. No one was winning 3-4 straight games in January playing behind that group.

Shit, look at how the Lions looked defensively playing on Xmas at Minnesota. Damn near dominate! There is a reason for that, again, it's the trenches.

Seattle is so well built for Sam. Between his career resurgence and how they've built that team -- well here we are -- a chance at a ring. I'm rooting for him. It's been a great story seeing him comeback.
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I agree with you 100%!! Great write up , GO SAM
 
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