MLB Best Bets for August 17: Hitters Reign in Queens Tonight
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, August 17, 2025 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park
Logan Webb's Struggles
San Francisco is heavily favored today because Logan Webb, who is generally thought to be a great pitcher, is starting.
I am not denying that Webb is, generally, a great pitcher, but we are concerned with the present moment.
Presently, Webb is struggling. He has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last six starts.
The two exceptions came against the lowly Pirates who have one of baseball's worst lineups, if not the worst, and struggle mightily against ground ball-inducing pitchers.
Webb vs. Rays Batters
Whereas the Pirates rank dead-last in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties, Webb's opponents who thrived against him rank 26th or better against those pitches from righties.
I like the Rays because they rank eighth against Webb's favorite pitches from righties.
The Key for Ryan Pepiot
Tampa Bay starts Ryan Pepiot today.
As a pitcher who relies heavily on inducing fly balls, it is crucial for him to avoid surrendering home runs — home runs are typically fly balls that are long enough to leave the ballpark.
Unfortunately for him, his last three opponents ranked top-seven in home runs per game.
His form is still good — he enters today's game having collected the win in both of his last two starts.
He is primed to collect a third straight win against a Giants team that ranks fourth-to-last in home runs per game.
San Francisco won't do what it needs to do to perform well against Pepiot. The Giants are, in terms of slugging rate, at their worst against fly ball-inducing pitchers. They also rank below-average against Pepiot's favorite pitches from righties.
A Great Underdog
With a highly-ranked bullpen that is very fresh, the Rays are a great full-game underdog today.
They counter a struggling Webb against whom they match up well with a strong Pepiot who will outperform Webb before handing the baton off to reliable relievers.
Best Bet: Rays ML at +140 with BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, August 17, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium
Yu Is Back
Yu Darvish starts for San Diego today.
Darvish's initial starts this season elicited concern because they were all poor.
However, his first start came on July 7. It is tough for a pitcher to enter the fray in the middle of the season and to perform well against well-seasoned batters.
Darvish is known to be a good pitcher, though. It took time for him to find his groove. In his last start, he limited the Giants to one run in six innings. He is now 2-0 in his last three starts.
Low-Scoring First Five Innings
Tyler Glasnow, who starts for the Dodgers today, has been solid since his return to action in the beginning of July. Since then, he held four of his last six opponents to one run or less. He even locked down the Brewers twice in a row.
The outlook for both Glasnow and Darvish is solid today because of how well each performs against the other team's lineup.
Dodgers batters hit .196 and slug .361 against Darvish. Padres batters hit .128 and slug .205 against Glasnow.
Key Trend
The Dodgers — their lineup and their team as a whole — are in a terrible spot today because they are coming off a shutout victory.
History dictates that we should invest in a Dodgers let-down today. They are 0-4 this year after a shutout win.
In the second half of the season, they scored a combined total of two runs in the two respective games that followed a shutout win.
With San Diego anyhow having the superior group of relievers — baseball's top-ranked bullpen — that ranks 20 spots ahead of the Dodgers' bullpen, the Padres merit a full-game investment.
Best Bet: First-Five Under 4 at +100 with BetOnline
Best Bet: Padres ML at +136 with BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
Sunday, August 17, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field
George Kirby's Spurious Success
Seattle starts George Kirby tonight.
Kirby looks reliable based on his most recent starts.
However, of his last four opponents against whom he thrived, two ranked better than 27th against his favorite pitches from righties.
Those two teams were Baltimore and the Angels. He caught Baltimore in the midst of a cold streak and yielded a 4.28 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) against the Angels, indicating that he performed poorly against them.
Kirby does not deserve any benefit of the doubt from bettors tonight, especially against a Mets lineup that has scored at least six runs in four of its last six games.
Kirby vs. Mets Batters
The Mets also match up uniquely well against Kirby.
They rank fourth with a .459 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Collectively, they already bat .385 and slug .564 against him. Four different batters slug at least 1.000 against him. Their collective track record against him isn't better, because a single batter has faced him many times and struggled.
Seattle's Lineup Will Keep Pace
The Mariners get to face Mets starter Clay Holmes.
Holmes, who allowed five earned runs in his last start, is experiencing statistical regression, as his ERA aligns toward his FIP that remains .49 higher than it.
Seattle's outlook on offense is solid today because it ranks second with a .477 slugging rate against the sinker, which is by far Holmes' favorite pitch, from righties.
Holmes is a heavy ground-ball-inducing pitcher, and the Mariners are at their best against this sort of pitcher.
They will therefore contribute to a high-scoring start in this game.
Best Bet: First-Five Over 4.5 at +106 with BetOnline
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, August 17, 2025 at 4:05 p.m. ET at Oracle Park
Logan Webb's Struggles
San Francisco is heavily favored today because Logan Webb, who is generally thought to be a great pitcher, is starting.
I am not denying that Webb is, generally, a great pitcher, but we are concerned with the present moment.
Presently, Webb is struggling. He has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last six starts.
The two exceptions came against the lowly Pirates who have one of baseball's worst lineups, if not the worst, and struggle mightily against ground ball-inducing pitchers.
Webb vs. Rays Batters
Whereas the Pirates rank dead-last in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties, Webb's opponents who thrived against him rank 26th or better against those pitches from righties.
I like the Rays because they rank eighth against Webb's favorite pitches from righties.
The Key for Ryan Pepiot
Tampa Bay starts Ryan Pepiot today.
As a pitcher who relies heavily on inducing fly balls, it is crucial for him to avoid surrendering home runs — home runs are typically fly balls that are long enough to leave the ballpark.
Unfortunately for him, his last three opponents ranked top-seven in home runs per game.
His form is still good — he enters today's game having collected the win in both of his last two starts.
He is primed to collect a third straight win against a Giants team that ranks fourth-to-last in home runs per game.
San Francisco won't do what it needs to do to perform well against Pepiot. The Giants are, in terms of slugging rate, at their worst against fly ball-inducing pitchers. They also rank below-average against Pepiot's favorite pitches from righties.
A Great Underdog
With a highly-ranked bullpen that is very fresh, the Rays are a great full-game underdog today.
They counter a struggling Webb against whom they match up well with a strong Pepiot who will outperform Webb before handing the baton off to reliable relievers.
Best Bet: Rays ML at +140 with BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sunday, August 17, 2025 at 4:10 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium
Yu Is Back
Yu Darvish starts for San Diego today.
Darvish's initial starts this season elicited concern because they were all poor.
However, his first start came on July 7. It is tough for a pitcher to enter the fray in the middle of the season and to perform well against well-seasoned batters.
Darvish is known to be a good pitcher, though. It took time for him to find his groove. In his last start, he limited the Giants to one run in six innings. He is now 2-0 in his last three starts.
Low-Scoring First Five Innings
Tyler Glasnow, who starts for the Dodgers today, has been solid since his return to action in the beginning of July. Since then, he held four of his last six opponents to one run or less. He even locked down the Brewers twice in a row.
The outlook for both Glasnow and Darvish is solid today because of how well each performs against the other team's lineup.
Dodgers batters hit .196 and slug .361 against Darvish. Padres batters hit .128 and slug .205 against Glasnow.
Key Trend
The Dodgers — their lineup and their team as a whole — are in a terrible spot today because they are coming off a shutout victory.
History dictates that we should invest in a Dodgers let-down today. They are 0-4 this year after a shutout win.
In the second half of the season, they scored a combined total of two runs in the two respective games that followed a shutout win.
With San Diego anyhow having the superior group of relievers — baseball's top-ranked bullpen — that ranks 20 spots ahead of the Dodgers' bullpen, the Padres merit a full-game investment.
Best Bet: First-Five Under 4 at +100 with BetOnline
Best Bet: Padres ML at +136 with BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets
Sunday, August 17, 2025 at 7 p.m. ET at BB&T Ballpark at Historic Bowman Field
George Kirby's Spurious Success
Seattle starts George Kirby tonight.
Kirby looks reliable based on his most recent starts.
However, of his last four opponents against whom he thrived, two ranked better than 27th against his favorite pitches from righties.
Those two teams were Baltimore and the Angels. He caught Baltimore in the midst of a cold streak and yielded a 4.28 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) against the Angels, indicating that he performed poorly against them.
Kirby does not deserve any benefit of the doubt from bettors tonight, especially against a Mets lineup that has scored at least six runs in four of its last six games.
Kirby vs. Mets Batters
The Mets also match up uniquely well against Kirby.
They rank fourth with a .459 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Collectively, they already bat .385 and slug .564 against him. Four different batters slug at least 1.000 against him. Their collective track record against him isn't better, because a single batter has faced him many times and struggled.
Seattle's Lineup Will Keep Pace
The Mariners get to face Mets starter Clay Holmes.
Holmes, who allowed five earned runs in his last start, is experiencing statistical regression, as his ERA aligns toward his FIP that remains .49 higher than it.
Seattle's outlook on offense is solid today because it ranks second with a .477 slugging rate against the sinker, which is by far Holmes' favorite pitch, from righties.
Holmes is a heavy ground-ball-inducing pitcher, and the Mariners are at their best against this sort of pitcher.
They will therefore contribute to a high-scoring start in this game.
Best Bet: First-Five Over 4.5 at +106 with BetOnline
