MLB Best Bets for June 15: The Padres Are Barking Today
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, June 15, 2025 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Camden Yards
Don't Believe in Yusei Kikuchi
For the Angels, Yusei Kikuchi starts today.
Given his ERA, it might seem strange to play an "over" with him on the mound.
However, his ERA is deceptive.
Kikuchi's ERA has benefitted from an unsustainably high strand rate.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is tremendously higher at 4.29 and reflects how poorly he has truly been performing.
Kikuchi vs. Orioles Batters
It is only a matter of time until Kikuchi experiences regression and his ERA shifts toward his higher FIP.
This shift will begin to happen today, as Kikuchi faces Baltimore in Camden Yards.
In this venue, his career ERA is 5.06.
His struggles in this venue help explain the strong track record that Baltimore's batters boast against him.
Collectively, they slug .453 with him on the mound.
Outlook for Baltimore's Starter
Cade Povich starts for the Orioles today.
Camden Yards has not been kind to Povich — three of his worst four starts took place here, despite it being his home venue. His ERA and FIP are both well over twice as high at home as they are on the road.
Angels batters are primed to prolong his struggles in Camden Yards.
They rank eighth in slugging against his pitches from lefties.
With both starters struggling, the first-five "over" will hit.
Best Bet: First-Five over 5 at -110 with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Sunday, June 15, 2025 at 2:35 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field
Chicago's New Pitcher
Aaron Civale will make his first start for the White Sox today after they acquired him in a trade with his previous team Milwaukee.
Civale's start today will be the sixth of his season.
His ERA does not make an "under" seem appealing at first glance, but consider that his ERA is skewed by his poor outing against the mighty Yankees.
Civale vs. Rangers Batters
Chicago's starter will be radically more comfortable against Rangers batters than he was against the Yankees.
Whereas the latter rank second in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties, the Rangers rank 23rd against them.
The fact that Texas batters match up poorly against him makes sense of their poor track record with him on the mound.
Collectively, with more strikeouts than hits, they slug .383 against him.
Ready to Rock
Kumar Rocker starts for the Rangers today.
Don't dismiss his chances today because of his last start. He was rusty after being reactivated from the injury list.
His excellent minor-league start on Tuesday shows that he is back to his usual self and thus indicates his capacity to thrive in the right matchup.
This is the perfect matchup for him. By far, the White Sox rank dead-last with a .340 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
He will help keep the scoring low through five innings.
Best Bet: First-Five under 4.5 at +105 with BetOnline
The Angry Padres
San Diego is going to be angry today. The Padres had a strong lead in the ninth-inning last night before their bullpen, which has been fantastic all year, suffered an anomalous meltdown and
blew their lead.
This is a bitter way to lose.
Some teams hang their heads and recoil in response to such a gut punch. But the Padres are not one of those teams.
For example, the Padres lost a late lead to the Yankees before losing to them in extra innings. In their next game, they won at Colorado by four runs.
Later, they bitterly lost a tight, eleven-inning affair in Toronto before, in their next game, impressively winning in Atlanta.
Most recently, they responded to a close, extra-inning loss to the Dodgers by blowing them out in their subsequent game.
After they suffer a tight loss, one can count on the Padres to respond well.
San Diego's Matchup Edge
With Nick Pivetta pitching for them, the Padres have the starting pitcher advantage in this game.
Pivetta loves facing the Diamondbacks. They slug .315 against him.
Arizona's top hitters this year, Geraldo Perdomo, Josh Naylor, and Eugenio Suarez, are combined 3-for-19 with him on the mound.
Arizona starter Merrill Kelly, conversely, will struggle against the opposing lineup. The Padres love to face him, as evident in their collective .449 slugging rate with him pitching.
Their strong bullpen advantage, as evident in its significantly superior ERA, is supported today by the freshness of key relievers like Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada, who are ready to protect San Diego's lead.
Best Bet: Padres ML at +116 with BetOnline
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, June 15, 2025 at 1:35 p.m. ET at Camden Yards
Don't Believe in Yusei Kikuchi
For the Angels, Yusei Kikuchi starts today.
Given his ERA, it might seem strange to play an "over" with him on the mound.
However, his ERA is deceptive.
Kikuchi's ERA has benefitted from an unsustainably high strand rate.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is tremendously higher at 4.29 and reflects how poorly he has truly been performing.
Kikuchi vs. Orioles Batters
It is only a matter of time until Kikuchi experiences regression and his ERA shifts toward his higher FIP.
This shift will begin to happen today, as Kikuchi faces Baltimore in Camden Yards.
In this venue, his career ERA is 5.06.
His struggles in this venue help explain the strong track record that Baltimore's batters boast against him.
Collectively, they slug .453 with him on the mound.
Outlook for Baltimore's Starter
Cade Povich starts for the Orioles today.
Camden Yards has not been kind to Povich — three of his worst four starts took place here, despite it being his home venue. His ERA and FIP are both well over twice as high at home as they are on the road.
Angels batters are primed to prolong his struggles in Camden Yards.
They rank eighth in slugging against his pitches from lefties.
With both starters struggling, the first-five "over" will hit.
Best Bet: First-Five over 5 at -110 with BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Sunday, June 15, 2025 at 2:35 p.m. ET at Globe Life Field
Chicago's New Pitcher
Aaron Civale will make his first start for the White Sox today after they acquired him in a trade with his previous team Milwaukee.
Civale's start today will be the sixth of his season.
His ERA does not make an "under" seem appealing at first glance, but consider that his ERA is skewed by his poor outing against the mighty Yankees.
Civale vs. Rangers Batters
Chicago's starter will be radically more comfortable against Rangers batters than he was against the Yankees.
Whereas the latter rank second in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties, the Rangers rank 23rd against them.
The fact that Texas batters match up poorly against him makes sense of their poor track record with him on the mound.
Collectively, with more strikeouts than hits, they slug .383 against him.
Ready to Rock
Kumar Rocker starts for the Rangers today.
Don't dismiss his chances today because of his last start. He was rusty after being reactivated from the injury list.
His excellent minor-league start on Tuesday shows that he is back to his usual self and thus indicates his capacity to thrive in the right matchup.
This is the perfect matchup for him. By far, the White Sox rank dead-last with a .340 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
He will help keep the scoring low through five innings.
Best Bet: First-Five under 4.5 at +105 with BetOnline
The Angry Padres
San Diego is going to be angry today. The Padres had a strong lead in the ninth-inning last night before their bullpen, which has been fantastic all year, suffered an anomalous meltdown and
blew their lead.
This is a bitter way to lose.
Some teams hang their heads and recoil in response to such a gut punch. But the Padres are not one of those teams.
For example, the Padres lost a late lead to the Yankees before losing to them in extra innings. In their next game, they won at Colorado by four runs.
Later, they bitterly lost a tight, eleven-inning affair in Toronto before, in their next game, impressively winning in Atlanta.
Most recently, they responded to a close, extra-inning loss to the Dodgers by blowing them out in their subsequent game.
After they suffer a tight loss, one can count on the Padres to respond well.
San Diego's Matchup Edge
With Nick Pivetta pitching for them, the Padres have the starting pitcher advantage in this game.
Pivetta loves facing the Diamondbacks. They slug .315 against him.
Arizona's top hitters this year, Geraldo Perdomo, Josh Naylor, and Eugenio Suarez, are combined 3-for-19 with him on the mound.
Arizona starter Merrill Kelly, conversely, will struggle against the opposing lineup. The Padres love to face him, as evident in their collective .449 slugging rate with him pitching.
Their strong bullpen advantage, as evident in its significantly superior ERA, is supported today by the freshness of key relievers like Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada, who are ready to protect San Diego's lead.
Best Bet: Padres ML at +116 with BetOnline
