NBA Playoffs Best Bets for May 11: The Pacers Are Done Playing Soft
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena
Key Trend
Many people blindly expect the Thunder to bounce back today, but the fact that they are playing on the road is crucial. Their Game 3 loss was a prolongation of their tendency to underperform on the road relative to their success at home.
In this postseason, they are 2-1 on the road. Their best road win came by six points when Memphis' best player exited the game early.
Extending to last postseason, the only team that they beat on the road by more than six points was New Orleans. Besides Memphis minus Morant, they have not won a road postseason game by more than four points.
Stopping Oklahoma City's Transition Attack
Game location is vital because home teams tend to dictate their preferred tempo. Dictating the style of play is crucial in this matchup because of how starkly each team's respective tempo preferences diverge: the Thunder want an up-and-down game; conversely, the Nuggets desire a half-court game.
It is already notoriously true that game tempo tends to slow down in the postseason. Denver appeared more comfortable on offense in Game 3 not simply because it has so much postseason experience, but because the postseason favors teams that find greater success in slower-tempo games.
Oklahoma City's Half-Court Offense
The Thunder's loss in Game 3 highlighted its weaknesses in half-court offense. Down the stretch, it frequently resorted to low-percentage shot attempts from Isaiah Hartenstein down low.
Chet Holmgren appears ineffective driving inside because his skillset proves more limited when he occupies the power forward position. Moreover, Thunder three-point shooting declines dramatically on the road where it is 35.5 percent this year. For comparison's sake, Houston ranks 21st with a 35.5-percent conversion rate.
They rely extensively on Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This reliance, which is magnified in a closer game, creates a problematic outlook for the Thunder today because Williams can hardly play better than he did in their Game 3 loss where he amassed 32 points.
OKC needs Gilgeous-Alexander to be more than great in the half-court, but Christian Braun for Denver has proven to be a very underrated defender as he played a large role in locking down the Thunder down the stretch and holding SGA to 18 points on 22 field-goal attempts.
Nikola Jokic
Given the strong outlook that defenders like Braun and the lengthier and more athletic Aaron Gordon yield for Denver's defense because of their ability to contain SGA, I find it extremely troubling for the Thunder that they lost Game 3 given the game that Denver's best player had.
The Nuggets won Game 3 with Nikola Jokic underperforming tremendously. He missed so many good looks that he normally coverts. His 32-percent conversion rate in that game is almost as bad as his shooting performance in Game 5 against the Clippers. In his following game, he converted 11 of 22 field-goal attempts.
Expect a bounce-back performance from the Nuggets' best player. Ivica Zubac of the Clippers was supposed to be the best player at guarding Jokic, and even he failed to limit Jokic when the latter was bouncing back from a poor effort.
Support for Jokic
The Nuggets also won Game 3 without getting much from Russell Westbrook, who scored 18 points in Game 1 and 19 points in Game 2.
He ably contributes to an offense that has now figured out how to get Jamal Murray going against OKC's defense and that benefits from Aaron Gordon's versatility and Michael Porter Jr.'s resurgence behind the arc.
Denver's made baskets will further contribute to the establishment of a half-court game today — a team's made baskets force its opponent to in-bound the ball, preventing it from playing in transition.
With Denver's defense being so comfortable against OKC's deficient half-court offense, the Nuggets' notorious lack of depth is not a problem for them. OKC in practice relies on a limited number of players that does not give them the depth advantage against the Nuggets that the Clippers sometimes showed to its great aid in the first round.
The Thunder don't have a better supporting cast than the Nuggets, and Denver likewise has an MVP-caliber player in Jokic, who will outperform OKC's. OKC is favored in this game because of its regular season success, but that will appear irrelevant today in Denver.
Best Bet: Nuggets +6.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers
Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
What Happened in Game 3
It is tempting to think that with important Cleveland scorers returning, as they did in Game 3, the Cavaliers will simply continue to run away with this series.
Game 3 proved to be a golden situation for them: their returning players brought them renewed belief and other forms of momentum; they had urgency down 0-2; the Pacers were coming in too high and needed a good slap in the face.
Indiana Is Done Playing Soft
Game 3 was one of those games in which Indiana played soft. The Pacers do this sometimes, reiterating that Game 3 does not show Cleveland's dominance over Indiana but rather Indiana's negative tendencies.
We've seen Indiana do this multiple times in the postseason. Last year, for example, they came out soft in Game 1 against the Bucks. They were also soft this year in Game 3 in Milwaukee.
You have to expect an NBA team, filled with prideful professional players, to man up after a soft performance.
Indeed, the Pacers have a history of manning up, as evident in the success with which they bounced back against Milwaukee in Game 2 last year and in Game 4 this year.
Indiana's Bounce-Back Trend
More extensively, the Pacers have proven to be an excellent bounce-back team.
Dating to last year's postseason, the Pacers are 5-1 in the game following one in which they lost by nine or more points. In the one exception, they missed their starting point guard and lost by three points without Tyrese Haliburton to eventual champion Boston.
In Game 3 this year against Cleveland, the Pacers lost by 22 points. Rather than get dominated by a superior team, they were out-fought by a more determined team. Cleveland accumulated 17 more second-chance points than they did.
Look at the footage of different rebounding opportunities in that game to see what I mean: Indiana suffered from an insufficient willingness of its players to box out and go after the ball.
Tyrese Haliburton is still someone who is so hard for defenders to stay in front of. With Myles Turner, as a center who shoots three-pointers efficiently, able to clear space in the paint, Haliburton is able to get the basket. Darius Garland is a notoriously bad defender, and Donovan Mitchell likewise can't be expected to stay in front of him.
Indiana's Perimeter Defenders
Cleveland's offense frequently has its guards adopt a tremendous level of responsibility.
Darius Garland did return in Game 3 but did not look convincing with his 27.3-percent field goal percentage. With Ty Jerome looking unplayable this series, in contrast to his performance in Round 1, Donovan Mitchell has to take over.
It is impossible to expect Mitchell — or any player ever — to score 40 points for a third straight time.
This is especially the case given the quality of Indiana's perimeter defenders. Andrew Nembhard has a tremendous history of limiting the field goal efficiency of star guards — these include Ja Morant, Steph Curry, and Anthony Edwards.
Aaron Nesmith has good length and for good reason is commonly tasked with defending the opposing team's top perimeter player.
Player Prop
Andrew Nembhard has a great history in bounce-back spots, as most recently evident when he scored 20 points in Game 4 against Milwaukee this year.
His three-point efficiency will enable Indiana to perform better in general but also specifically against Cleveland's zone defense because good three-point shooting is a common simple tactic against a zone.
Man-to-man, it is tough to stop key facets of Indiana's offense like the dribble penetration of Haliburton and the post-ups of Pascal Siakam. Nembhard, who is 11-for-21 from deep in his last three games following a postseason loss, has a particularly strong outlook today because he will be his team's best weapon against Cleveland's zone defense.
Best Bet: Pacers +5 at -105 with BetOnline & Andrew Nembhard over 13.5 points at +120 with Bovada
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 3:30 p.m. ET at Ball Arena
Key Trend
Many people blindly expect the Thunder to bounce back today, but the fact that they are playing on the road is crucial. Their Game 3 loss was a prolongation of their tendency to underperform on the road relative to their success at home.
In this postseason, they are 2-1 on the road. Their best road win came by six points when Memphis' best player exited the game early.
Extending to last postseason, the only team that they beat on the road by more than six points was New Orleans. Besides Memphis minus Morant, they have not won a road postseason game by more than four points.
Stopping Oklahoma City's Transition Attack
Game location is vital because home teams tend to dictate their preferred tempo. Dictating the style of play is crucial in this matchup because of how starkly each team's respective tempo preferences diverge: the Thunder want an up-and-down game; conversely, the Nuggets desire a half-court game.
It is already notoriously true that game tempo tends to slow down in the postseason. Denver appeared more comfortable on offense in Game 3 not simply because it has so much postseason experience, but because the postseason favors teams that find greater success in slower-tempo games.
Oklahoma City's Half-Court Offense
The Thunder's loss in Game 3 highlighted its weaknesses in half-court offense. Down the stretch, it frequently resorted to low-percentage shot attempts from Isaiah Hartenstein down low.
Chet Holmgren appears ineffective driving inside because his skillset proves more limited when he occupies the power forward position. Moreover, Thunder three-point shooting declines dramatically on the road where it is 35.5 percent this year. For comparison's sake, Houston ranks 21st with a 35.5-percent conversion rate.
They rely extensively on Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. This reliance, which is magnified in a closer game, creates a problematic outlook for the Thunder today because Williams can hardly play better than he did in their Game 3 loss where he amassed 32 points.
OKC needs Gilgeous-Alexander to be more than great in the half-court, but Christian Braun for Denver has proven to be a very underrated defender as he played a large role in locking down the Thunder down the stretch and holding SGA to 18 points on 22 field-goal attempts.
Nikola Jokic
Given the strong outlook that defenders like Braun and the lengthier and more athletic Aaron Gordon yield for Denver's defense because of their ability to contain SGA, I find it extremely troubling for the Thunder that they lost Game 3 given the game that Denver's best player had.
The Nuggets won Game 3 with Nikola Jokic underperforming tremendously. He missed so many good looks that he normally coverts. His 32-percent conversion rate in that game is almost as bad as his shooting performance in Game 5 against the Clippers. In his following game, he converted 11 of 22 field-goal attempts.
Expect a bounce-back performance from the Nuggets' best player. Ivica Zubac of the Clippers was supposed to be the best player at guarding Jokic, and even he failed to limit Jokic when the latter was bouncing back from a poor effort.
Support for Jokic
The Nuggets also won Game 3 without getting much from Russell Westbrook, who scored 18 points in Game 1 and 19 points in Game 2.
He ably contributes to an offense that has now figured out how to get Jamal Murray going against OKC's defense and that benefits from Aaron Gordon's versatility and Michael Porter Jr.'s resurgence behind the arc.
Denver's made baskets will further contribute to the establishment of a half-court game today — a team's made baskets force its opponent to in-bound the ball, preventing it from playing in transition.
With Denver's defense being so comfortable against OKC's deficient half-court offense, the Nuggets' notorious lack of depth is not a problem for them. OKC in practice relies on a limited number of players that does not give them the depth advantage against the Nuggets that the Clippers sometimes showed to its great aid in the first round.
The Thunder don't have a better supporting cast than the Nuggets, and Denver likewise has an MVP-caliber player in Jokic, who will outperform OKC's. OKC is favored in this game because of its regular season success, but that will appear irrelevant today in Denver.
Best Bet: Nuggets +6.5 at -115 with BetOnline
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Indiana Pacers
Sunday, May 11, 2025 at 8 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse
What Happened in Game 3
It is tempting to think that with important Cleveland scorers returning, as they did in Game 3, the Cavaliers will simply continue to run away with this series.
Game 3 proved to be a golden situation for them: their returning players brought them renewed belief and other forms of momentum; they had urgency down 0-2; the Pacers were coming in too high and needed a good slap in the face.
Indiana Is Done Playing Soft
Game 3 was one of those games in which Indiana played soft. The Pacers do this sometimes, reiterating that Game 3 does not show Cleveland's dominance over Indiana but rather Indiana's negative tendencies.
We've seen Indiana do this multiple times in the postseason. Last year, for example, they came out soft in Game 1 against the Bucks. They were also soft this year in Game 3 in Milwaukee.
You have to expect an NBA team, filled with prideful professional players, to man up after a soft performance.
Indeed, the Pacers have a history of manning up, as evident in the success with which they bounced back against Milwaukee in Game 2 last year and in Game 4 this year.
Indiana's Bounce-Back Trend
More extensively, the Pacers have proven to be an excellent bounce-back team.
Dating to last year's postseason, the Pacers are 5-1 in the game following one in which they lost by nine or more points. In the one exception, they missed their starting point guard and lost by three points without Tyrese Haliburton to eventual champion Boston.
In Game 3 this year against Cleveland, the Pacers lost by 22 points. Rather than get dominated by a superior team, they were out-fought by a more determined team. Cleveland accumulated 17 more second-chance points than they did.
Look at the footage of different rebounding opportunities in that game to see what I mean: Indiana suffered from an insufficient willingness of its players to box out and go after the ball.
Tyrese Haliburton is still someone who is so hard for defenders to stay in front of. With Myles Turner, as a center who shoots three-pointers efficiently, able to clear space in the paint, Haliburton is able to get the basket. Darius Garland is a notoriously bad defender, and Donovan Mitchell likewise can't be expected to stay in front of him.
Indiana's Perimeter Defenders
Cleveland's offense frequently has its guards adopt a tremendous level of responsibility.
Darius Garland did return in Game 3 but did not look convincing with his 27.3-percent field goal percentage. With Ty Jerome looking unplayable this series, in contrast to his performance in Round 1, Donovan Mitchell has to take over.
It is impossible to expect Mitchell — or any player ever — to score 40 points for a third straight time.
This is especially the case given the quality of Indiana's perimeter defenders. Andrew Nembhard has a tremendous history of limiting the field goal efficiency of star guards — these include Ja Morant, Steph Curry, and Anthony Edwards.
Aaron Nesmith has good length and for good reason is commonly tasked with defending the opposing team's top perimeter player.
Player Prop
Andrew Nembhard has a great history in bounce-back spots, as most recently evident when he scored 20 points in Game 4 against Milwaukee this year.
His three-point efficiency will enable Indiana to perform better in general but also specifically against Cleveland's zone defense because good three-point shooting is a common simple tactic against a zone.
Man-to-man, it is tough to stop key facets of Indiana's offense like the dribble penetration of Haliburton and the post-ups of Pascal Siakam. Nembhard, who is 11-for-21 from deep in his last three games following a postseason loss, has a particularly strong outlook today because he will be his team's best weapon against Cleveland's zone defense.
Best Bet: Pacers +5 at -105 with BetOnline & Andrew Nembhard over 13.5 points at +120 with Bovada
