Sunday NBA Play & Analysis


To the left, to the left, to the right to the righ
'05/'06 NBA Record: 122-95 (56%)
'06/'07 NBA Record: 10-4 (71%)

Having internet issues. I'm at my school right now. Getting this up while I'm here in case my shit doesn't get fixed for a day or two. Hopefully it will be good by the time I get home, but who the fuck knows.

Houston plus the points (Probably +4, but will grab +4.5 if it pops up at Pinny or Greek)
I'm high on this team, I know it's cliche to be high on Houston this season, but I think they are VERY dangerous and I have future bets on them. They're also my favorite team in the NBA, as McGrady is my favorite player and Van Gundy my favorite coach. So if you don't like taking advice from a fan, or you think I'm biased, stop reading now. It's all good.

The key to this game is the way the two teams matchup. Van Gundy is starting fucking Hayes at PF now, which moves Battier to SF, which moves McGrady to SG. This is a 6'8'' shooting-guard. This poses enormous matchup problems for Miami. Wade is 6'4''. They will have likely have to put him on McGrady. Payton can't cover him. And if Wade tries to cover Battier, and they put Walker on McGrady, Wade will get eaten alive in the post. Somewhere on the floor, you're looking at a bad matchup, most likely for Wade. Van Gundy is sure to exploit this, and maybe even as a bonus get Wade into foul trouble. McGrady is the fucking Don when he's on the road, and he should explode here on ESPN.

Look at Houston's rebounding stats the last 4 games: +12, +10, +12, +16. This team is owning the paint right now. Yao in particular. And let's not forget the most decorated aspect of this game, Shaq vs. Yao. The problem is, this is not a fair fight. Yao is in a different stratosphere than Shaq right now. Yao will own him this game, in his own house. It's just the reality. He's younger, quicker, and more skilled. Van Gundy and McGrady will pound it into his head to not get in foul trouble. Shaq will be helpless against Yao, on both ends. Which will lead to frustration, which will make things even worse. Shaq's a competitive guy, and I'm not sure he's ready to accept the reality that Yao is HANDS DOWN the best center in basketball. It will cause him to force, and will likely hurt the whole team. BTW, if Shaq dominates my boy, I will be the first one to tip my hat off to him. But there's just nothing to suggest it will happen.

Houston wants to make it known they are a presence in this league. I think Miami has one of their lulls in the middle of this game, and against a team as good as Houston, it might bite them in the ass. I think Houston probably takes it SU, but I won't put it past Wade to get a close win so I'm comfortable with the points. Just a 1-unit play, as always. GLTA.
Adding my first prop of the season.........................

Arenas O33.5 P&A (-115)
Number is too low. Arenas' P&A at home this season are 40, 44, and 50. Nothing below 40. He has gone over this number in NINE straight home games. His last nine games at home, in terms of P&A: 40, 44, 50, 47, 40, 46, 48, 40, 34. All but one over 40. This man is an absolute machine, and it doesn't matter who guards him. He'll most likely clear this in points alone, but he's getting assists too, to the tune of 7.6 per game. He should have yet another huge game tonight. Number should be high 30s.
Trout- Line has been corrected to +2, which is what I thought it should've been. Not a square play IMO. If the line has gone to 4.5 or stayed at 4, I may have been concerned.
Arenas played as bad as you'll ever see him play. He shot 6-23 from the floor, and still ended up with 30 P&A. He missed wide open shots, and other Wizards missed wide open shots that cost him assists. The line I got represented incredible value, as it closed at -200 at Greek. I would play that prop again any day of the week and twice on Sunday. No regrets whatsoever on that one.

Go Houston........
good luck killa, wit ya on tha rockets jus los some of tha value u got though. tough break on tha wiz, i watched most of tha game an gilbert an the other wizards all basically looked like shit. game shouldnt have ever went into OT, nets took forever to inbound tha ball but refs didnt make tha right call.
What do you think about our chances?

They are playing close but cant pull ahead I think that Miami falls asleep in the second half.