SUNDAY MORNING COFFEE--Week 6 Review and Week 7 Line Predictions

Games I could be interested in:

Wake Forest +(3 or more?)
Lousiville -(under 7?)
East Carolina -
Syracuse +(24?)
Baylor -(3 or less)
South Carolina +(would have to be a lot though - around 7)
Mississippi St. +
UNC -
Bowling Green
Kent St.
Miami FL - (under 17)
SDSU +(only because I have a feeling the number will be ridiculous)
North Texas + (glutton for punishment)
 
I also think Cincy/Rutgers will be a FG game either way and I'm leaning toward Cincy losing outright.
 
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</td><td class="cc c">8:11 AM (23 minutes ago)
Box Scoring': Perfect Tigers

from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Matt Hinton
ept_sports_ncaaf_experts-25525379-1223217363.jpg
Weird, wild and eye-popping stats from Saturday's action. • UConn outgained North Carolina by 115 yards and ten first downs and lost by 26 points.
• Missouri converted seven of nine first downs, scored on each of its first seven possessions and went 60 yards before going out on downs on its eighth and final drive in a 52-17 win over Nebraska. After punting once against Nevada and once against Buffalo, the Tigers did not punt at all against the Huskers.
• With six points against Penn State, Purdue has averaged eight points in its last seven games against Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin, most of them with the game out of reach in the fourth quarter.
• Minnesota held Indiana to seven points on 293 yards, the Gophers' best defensive game in either category since beating depression-era Penn State in 2004. That would have been a good quarter for the Gopher defense in 2007.
• Georgia Tech completed nine passes for 230 yards in its 27-0 win over Duke, all of them to Demaryius Thomas. Duke's 132 total yards was the Devils' lowest output since September 2005.
• Florida State gained 440 yards, scored 41 points, turned the ball over five times, gave up 36 points in the second half and didn't punt in its 41-39 win over Miami.
• Boston College easily doubled up N.C. State in total yards, 578 to 253, but only scored the winning touchdown with 22 seconds on the clock.
ept_sports_ncaaf_experts-592461316-1223217382.jpg
• Oklahoma State and Texas A&M were nearly dead-even in total yards, but four touchdowns apart on the scoreboard thanks to three non-offensive touchdowns by the Cowboys in the first half.
• Kansas gained 87 yards and scored zero points in the first half, before gaining 354 yards and scoring 35 points in the second half of its 35-33 win over Iowa State.
• As predicted, Jimmy Clausen had his first 300-yard passing game, with three touchdowns and no interceptions in Notre Dame's win over Stanford. And for Chris Marinelli: the Irish sacked Tavita Pritchard five times.
• Air Force outgained Navy by 167 yards, and lost, 33-27, thanks to two blocked punts returned for touchdown.
• TCU outrushed San Diego State by 396 yards, 383 to -13, in a 41-7 Horned Frogs win. SDSU held the ball for just 16:31 and totaled 85 yards total offense.
• Ball State ran for 240 yards and passed for 242 in a 31-0 win over Toledo.
• Southern Miss running back Damion Fletcher ran for a national-high 260 yards on 7.6 per carry in USM's double-overtime loss to (gag me) UTEP.






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Perfect ATS Teams
Georgia Tech
Penn St
Iowa St
Oklahoma
Oklahoma St
Texas
Tulsa
Ball St
N Illinois
Vandy

Perfect ATS Fades
Idaho
Wyoming
Washington St
Arkansas
 
Thanks for the post DMoney. Let me know your topline thoughts on the main ones where you have a diff of say 5 or more points, and I will do the same, as there is no right or wrong answer of course, but always trying to get better at this so I can be a step ahead once the opens come out, thanks!
 
Here are my reasons for Troy -4 (I saw you had them +1 so that one stood out)

Reason why I have Troy as the fav is because they have already defeated MTSU on the road, while FAU couldn't pull off the win. I think this will play in the perception that helps create the line. Also, Troy has been competitive against the likes of Okie State and Ohio State the last few weeks, so I think they have to be the fav vs a FAU team that has underperformed vs expectations to date. Troy -4 seems about right to me based on year to date performance, perception, etc as I would expect them to be about a TD fav on a neutral site.
 
2 different situations I am looking at:

UAB @ Houston: Painful last second home loss for UAB, now travel to Houston who is coming off a bye. UAB pass defense is weak. This game could have a lot of points because Joe Webb will be tough for Houston to contain and Houston is going to get their share of points.

ULM @ Arky St: ULM is off loss versus rival ULL, Arky St is coming off a bye-week, previous game was a loss @ Memphis, ULM won this game last yr by a large margin.



be back with more later.
 
Few more thoughts on our line differences...

Houston is one I wouldn't be surprised to be higher than the 10.5 I projected, but not sure it will be as high as it should b/c of their suspect D, as UAB should be able to put up points in this matchup, and not sure that the opening line will see Houston laying 3 scores, based on their inability to shut down opposing offenses. I think UAB got 2 TDs vs Tulsa at open earlier in the year, so maybe this one will open somewhere between 10.5 and 14.5?

Louisville, I have -2.5 vs your -7. My line projection is mainly based on the fact that Memphis seems to have found some offensive firepower, plus playing at home. I think this one could be a 3pt game either way, b/c this is usually a pretty competitive series, kinda like Ole Miss v Memphis, so I settled on 2.5 for the projected line.
 
ISU vs Baylor was a tough one to project, as I wouldn't be shocked to see ISU -2.5 or Baylor -2.5, so no major issue there, even though we have a diff fav listed.

WMU I fully expect to be greater than a pk b/c Western has demonstrated to me that they are one of the upper echelon teams of the MAC, so even though Buffalo has improved, I think WMU has gotten some soft lines the last few weeks and I expect that to change in week 7, which is why I think 7.5 or around there will be the open, so that Buffalo backers can be enticed and WMU backers can be spooked at least a bit. I will keep riding the Broncos by the way, as they are making me money week in and week out.

Tulsa I think has to be above 4 TDs in order to get any SMU money at all. Just like vs Rice, I see them getting 56+ in this one, and yes I will probably be on Tulsa as they are another team I have yet to lose with this year.

Last one, MTSU vs FIU...Being a 7pt fav vs hapless NT is one thing, but just don't see how they won't be a dog vs MTSU, b/c from a perception standpoint, people will remember the Maryland win, and the primetime win, even though neither was particularly pretty. FIUs win over Toledo doesn't seem as impressive after the Rockets failed to show up yet again this weekend. If the line is under a FG, MTSU will be a sunbelt special for me most likely.
 
Another potential Sunbelt special will be ULL as long as I don't have to lay a crazy amount of points, as either Fenroy or Mike D is gonna break a ULL offensive record next Saturday against North Texas. Just depends on whether or not the Mean Green decide to stack the line with 8 or 9 every play or not.
 
Ok, here is what I'm thinking on the differences:

Troy/FAU (You: Troy -4, Me: FAU: -1)

Interesting one here, as this would have been pegged as the Sun Belt championship game in the preseason. I don't think FAU should get shorted for last week's gimmicky loss. Rusty Smith has looked like he has regessed this year, but I'm not that down on FAU yet.

UAB at Houston (You: Hous -10.5, Me: -16.5)

Houston is going to put up some numbers here. UAB has Webb, that's it. This Houston team is solid when they put it together (inconsistent, but better at home). UAB also can't tackle. I'm expect low-mid 40s from Houston and mis 20s from UAB basically. UAB couldn't stop a hapless Memphis team, they aren't stopping Houston.

Louisville/Memphis (You: -2.5, Me: -7)

Just basically disagree here. Memphis is basically awful. I don't really buy into Louisville, but they are worlds better than this bunch. I might even bet UL at my projected line of 7.

EMU/Army (You: EMU -4.5, Me: PK)

Either number makes sense. No clue where they place this one. I think Garfather had Army -3.

Iowa St./Baylor (You: ISU -2.5, Me: Bay -3)

I just made it this way since I basically rate this a PK on a neutral. I think Griffin could carry them single-handedly.

WMU/Buffalo (You: WMU -7, Me: PK)

I think WMU wins the MAC. Still Buffalo has been solid this year and I think this past week taught us that no one should be a big MAC dog, especially at home. -3 might be the best number here.

Vandy/Miss St. (You: Vandy -8.5, Me: -4)

I think Vandy may be the biggest fraud ever. Unfortunately, Miss St.'s style fits them perfectly. I'll be on Miss St. +7 or more though.

KSU/TAMU (You: KSU -12.5, Me: -6)

Shrug. Not sure where to put this game.

Toledo/Michigan (You: -12.5, Me -17.5)

Not really sure how Toledo scores. Then again, Michigan has little reason to care about this game.

New Mex/BYU (You: -16.5, Me -21)

I think BYU is overrated, but again have a tough time seeing UNM scoring much with Gruner back there.

Ohio/Kent (You: Kent -6.5, Me: PK)

Hope you are wrong here as I want to bet Kent.

Rutgers/Cincy (You: Cin -2.5, Me: -7)

Would you favor Rutgers on a neutral?

Tulsa/SMU (You: -31, ME: -24.5)

I give this one to you as I have not yet seen Tulsa this year. I do see slow, gradual improvement out of SMU's Mitchell though.

I made the SB games lower than you because I think the last couple weeks have shown that bad teams shouldn't be huge favs (Toledo, Bowling Green, Tulane). Also, MTSU was awful against FAU and could have lost worse to Kentucky if Seiber doesn't miss 4 FGs. The Maryland win looks less impressive by the day as they don't show up against lesser competition it seems.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Games I could be interested in:

Wake Forest +(3 or more?)
Lousiville -(under 7?)
East Carolina -
Syracuse +(24?)
Baylor -(3 or less)
South Carolina +(would have to be a lot though - around 7)
Mississippi St. +
UNC -
Bowling Green
Kent St.
Miami FL - (under 17)
SDSU +(only because I have a feeling the number will be ridiculous)
North Texas + (glutton for punishment)
Click to expand...



Worst matchup in the league for the Aztecs. They have no ability to stop the rush this year.
 
JPicks said:
Worst matchup in the league for the Aztecs. They have no ability to stop the rush this year.
Click to expand...

I was going to ask you that after seeing what TCU did on the ground. I may have to flip my lean completely there. Thanks. :cheers:
 
dont know why but have a feeling lines are tight this week..... just my glass is half empty nature i guess.
 
Here are the lines I will be keeping an eye out for later this evening...

ECU - may get some value based on UVA game yesterday and empty ECU bandwagon
OU - Hoping for 3 or less
EMU - Army win yesterday more surprising to me than EMU win believe it or not
WMU - class of the MAC, just hope I get a 3 or 4 here
Utah - My fade Wyoming trend will continue, just hope I don't have to lay a ton
Toledo - If this line is more than 17, may bite, but not sure yet
UNC - will have plenty to say later in my thread, but hoping for 3 or less
Ore State - WSU is another team on the fade list these days
Tex Tech - They know they gotta run up the score to gain style points
Tulsa - My favorite team haha, haven't lost with em all year, not stopping now
Fresno - Idaho makes 3 on the fade list
Ball State - WKU only losing by 14 this weekend was an aberration, they suck
MTSU - not drinking the FIU kool aid as this team has still lost 25 of 28 or whatever
ULL - NT makes 4 on the fade list


With the money management in play like I talked about in my week 6 thread, I will only be playing no more than 5 this week, so gonna be real selective with the variance, as qualifiers will probably need to be significantly above variance to make the play list this week, whereas in previous weeks, I have been flexible give or take a point vs variance here and there.
 
Just did a little more work and if the lines open where I think they will, more than likely, I will end up taking the best 3-5 line variances from the list below...

EMU
WMU
UNC
Ore St
Tx Tech
Tulsa
Fresno
Ball St
Arkie St
MTSU
ULL
 
115 minnesota
116 illinois -10.5

I would empty my 401K on the Illini here.
The Illini have to be at least 17 maybe 16.5
 
My lines:

101 troy
102 florida atlantic pk

103 clemson
104 wake forest -6

105 uab
106 houston u -13

107 louisville -2
108 memphis

109 east carolina pk
110 virginia

111 syracuse
112 west virginia -24

113 iowa -6
114 indiana

115 minnesota
116 illinois -9

117 michigan state -3
118 northwestern

119 texas
120 oklahoma -7

121 eastern michigan
122 army pk

123 iowa state -2
124 baylor

125 south carolina
126 kentucky -2

127 western michigan -2
128 buffalo u

129 vanderbilt
130 mississippi state -1

131 utah -27
132 wyoming

133 kansas state
134 texas am -4

135 temple
136 central michigan -6

137 purdue
138 ohio state -16

139 tcu -12
140 colorado state

141 oklahoma state
142 missouri -11

143 tennessee u
144 georgia -17

145 arizona state
146 usc -21

147 ucla
148 oregon -12

149 toledo
150 michigan -17

151 notre dame
152 north carolina -6

153 arkansas
154 auburn -18

155 new mexico state
156 nevada -13

157 miami ohio
158 northern illinois -13

159 new mexico
160 byu -15

161 washington state
162 oregon state -24

163 arizona u -6
164 stanford

165 bowling green -2
166 akron

167 ohio -9
168 kent

169 rutgers
170 cincinnati u -8

171 nebraska
172 texas tech -13

173 colorado
174 kansas -6

175 penn state -4
176 wisconsin

177 central florida
178 miami florida -12

179 lsu
180 florida -13

181 utah state
182 san jose state -21

183 tulsa -16
184 smu

185 boise state -14
186 so mississippi

187 tulane
188 utep pk

189 air force -8
190 san diego state

191 idaho
192 fresno state -38

193 louisiana tech
194 hawaii -2

195 ball state -14
196 western kentucky

197 ul - monroe
198 arkansas state -9

199 middle tenn st
200 florida intl -2

201 ul - lafayette -14
202 north texas
 
From the openers, a look at the shopping list:

EMU a 2 pt dog. Just for you CB.
WMU opened at 3. Right on. Just stay there.
Utah -21. Like the number. I made it -27.
USC -20. Anything under 21 looks good here. Want 17 or less.
UNC -4.5. Like the number but it's in the middle of nowhere.
Oreg St -29. Too high for me.
TT -17. May be a little too high. Like it better at 14.
Tulsa -23. Hoping for -21 max.
Fresno -35. Tons of chalk. Probably still good but ugh.
Ball St -20. Hoping for closer to 14 or 17.
MTSU -2. Should be right in the wheelhouse, CB?
ULL -20. Seems too high. Like it between 14 and 17.
 
Also adding Mizzou to the potential shopping list. They bring in Oklahoma St at home and are only giving up 9 according to the openers.

However, is this a sandwich spot? Off the Nebraska game and with Texas on deck? I don't think so as Okie Lite is in the top 15, is 5-0, and has one of the best offenses in the country.

I think the difference here is the defenses. Okie Lite has always struggled on D and this game looks like last year's TT game in Columbia.
 
agree on mizzou... rush defense has been stout, 16th in the nation giving up 92 a game...facing some quality rushing attacks too in illinois and nevada.
while they go up against the #2 rushing team in the country, but what good defenses have okie light faced? none. this is their first big test, and theyre playing on the road on top of that

lwouldnt be surrpised to see mizzou score every possession, like they did in the nebraska game...and while okie will get theres too theyre not going to be able to keep up with mizzou.

TTU- even at this number, still liking em. currently at -20.5 will probably hit it before it gets to 3 scores

chase exposed that nebraska secondary for what it is already, harrell in a groove...and he has shown what he does to swiss-cheese secondaries. (ie, SMU and kstate)-- they cover. theyre 2-0-1 ATS in lined games this year(depending on what number you got on the SMU game)...

this is a nebraska team, that even at home let missouri score on 8 of 10 drives...
the only 2 that werent scores? missed FG and turnover on downs when backup QB came in lol....

will probably take them 1H and game....
 
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