SUNDAY MORNING COFFEE--Week 4 Review and Week 5 Line Predictions

[RJ Esq]

101 smu
102 tulane -12

103 usc -21
104 oregon state

105 connecticut
106 louisville pk

107 navy
108 wake forest -22

109 western michigan -3
110 temple

111 marshall
112 west virginia -14

113 pittsburgh -18
114 syracuse

115 michigan state -8
116 indiana

117 northwestern
118 iowa -7

119 virginia
120 duke -3

121 north carolina
122 miami florida -1

123 mississippi
124 florida -21

125 mississippi state
126 lsu -14

127 northern illinois -8
128 eastern michigan

129 buffalo u
130 central michigan -7

131 cincinnati u -12
132 akron

133 houston u
134 east carolina -11

135 purdue -1
136 notre dame

137 minnesota
138 ohio state -17

139 virginia tech
140 nebraska -3

141 stanford
142 washington u -7

143 colorado state
144 california -22

145 alabama
146 georgia -12

147 tennessee u
148 auburn -8

149 wisconsin
150 michigan -7

151 maryland
152 clemson -7

153 fresno state -4
154 ucla

155 bowling green -12
156 wyoming

157 oregon -20
158 washington state

159 tcu
160 oklahoma -18

161 uab
162 south carolina -25

163 army
164 texas am -28

165 kent
166 ball state -19

167 south florida -9
168 north carolina state

169 colorado
170 florida state -2

171 central florida -8
172 utep

173 illinois
174 penn state -12

175 new mexico -1
176 new mexico state

177 idaho
178 san diego state -13

179 nevada
180 unlv pk

181 san jose state
182 hawaii -2

183 western kentucky
184 kentucky -23

185 arkansas state
186 memphis -5

187 troy
188 oklahoma state -15

189 florida intl
190 toledo -14

191 ul - lafayette
192 kansas state -14

193 north texas
194 rice -19

221 arkansas
222 texas -21

 

[RJ Esq]

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</td><td class="cc c">1:16 PM (35 minutes ago)
Week 5 projected lines and some Week 4 thoughts

from underdogsofwar.com by horses
I didn’t know that Stanford alumni bet on their team the way some other schools’ do. Yet, there was the Cardinal on the San Jose St one yard line Saturday nite knocking in the front door cover and exterminating my largest wager of the day. I don’t have satellite so I didn’t get to watch this game but rather, was ticking it on the internet while watching the two overtime games last nite. Couldn’t fuckin’ believe it when Stanford kept running plays instead of taking a knee; this is especially true since they were only up 6…a fumble return TD would have beat them. The right thing to do was to take a knee but I guess Harbaugh felt like some statement had to be made. All this bitching aside, San Jose St had -24 yards in the 4^th quarter and were outgained by about 185 yards for the game, so from that respect, I can’t complain too much. All in all, I went 4-2 on my sides (I added Miami, Fl and Oregon from my posted list of leans) and 2-0 on totals, but losing the game in NOCAL was a very bitter pill as it could have been a huge day.
Other recaps:
Other loser was Oregon; clearly, the Boise offense vs the Oregon defense was the matchup I got wrong in this game. The rFr QB for Boise controlled this game and the crowd.
Both large favorites, BYU and Penn St both covered easily, but in different ways. Penn St through total domination; these guys have been nothing short of dominant and right now I have them as the #5 team in the country. BYU’s offense struggled thru much of the game and I really have to tip my cap to the Cowboy defense considering what they have to put up with on the other side of the ball; not only can the Wyoming offense not generate many yards but they commit turnovers…six yesterday. I think it should be made official, this is the worst offense ever. They’d be better off kneeling 3 times and punting.
Miami (Fl) was an easy winner and I feel good about this one because I felt they were clearly the better team, despite how close the yards were. Toledo was a thrilling game and again, I feel I was on the right side here and got the cover. Fresno had a fumble rtn TD right out of the gate and a long return…felt Toledo got the better of it at the LOS with 2 backs going over 100…getting a TD and having two back go over 100 yards pretty much equals a cover…almost always.
Hit both totals; New Mexico St/UTEP…didn’t see the game, but the total yardage wouldn’t indicate those many points. Perhaps a bit fortunate…felt I had it right in the Idaho/Utah St game though it did get hairy near the end; still, one team didn’t make it to 300 yards in a game lined in the 60’s so I felt I did ok here.
Anyway..on to week 5; here are my projected lines:
Note: These lines are what I think they should be; they are do not reflect what I think they’ll be released at.
Thursday
SMU at Tulane (-10’) Monroe is probably as good as SMU and Tulane just dominated them at home.
USC at Oregon St (+22) Cutoff point was 3 TD’s; decided to go above it.

Friday
Connecticut at Louisville (-4’) – Home field and a little more dynamic offense. Tough game…
Saturday
Navy at Wake Forest (-14) – Great trends for Navy in this one.
W Michigan at Temple No line from me yet
Marshall at West Virginia (-14) Rivalry game so ignore the somewhat poor spot for Marshall; still, I think WVA is poised for a solid game.
Pitt at Syracuse (+17’) Syracuse is un-bettable; could make this higher, but ‘Stache will run with lead.
Michigan St at Indiana (+7) Won’t overreact too much to last weak, but still may be low
Northwestern at Iowa (-10) Interested to see where Vegas puts this one.
Virginia at Duke (-9’) Ditto
North Carolina at Miami (Fl) (-8) Butch returns, so they’ll be getting over the loss to Va Tech. Miami the better team.
Ole Miss at Florida (-22)
Miss St at LSU (-24) So is UF better than LSU the same as Ole Miss is better than Miss St? I think slightly less…
N Illinois at E Michigan (+5’) Thinking NIU is under the radar a little bit.
Buffalo at C Michigan (-7) Bulls efforts have been solid to date and I see nothing changing here.
Cincinnati at Akron (+12’) Zips have been impressive last 3 wks but step up in class here; ‘Cat QB Pike solid past week.
Houston at East Carolina (-9’) Making it lighter than it should be due to BCS buster letdown.
Purdue at Notre Dame (-3’) Home field here…both teams severely flawed for what they’re cracked up to be.
Minnesota at Ohio St (-20) Minnesota as looked better this year and deserve some respect; think OSU gets up for conference opener, though.
Va Tech at Nebraska (-9) Outstanding spot for ‘Huskers, even w/Missou on deck.
Stanford at Washington (-7) UW off bye, looking for 1^st win.
Colorado St at Cal (-23) Cal will be mindful not to let this season slip
Alabama at Georgia (-5’) God bless the SEC; great games every week.
Tennessee at Auburn (-7’) Lower than most but I like the UT spot
Wisconsin at Michigan (+4) I think Michigan plays their best game of the year, here.
Maryland at Clemson (-13’) Tough game to judge
Fresno St at UCLA (+3’) Gotta do it; Bruins couldn’t muster 200 yds against Desert Kitties and Bulldogs always play BCS tough.
Bowling Green at Wyoming (+2’) Gotta do this too; BG a little better than the Ohio squad that should have won here earlier.
Oregon at Washington St (+21) ‘Cougs get no respect till they show a pulse against a real team.
TCU at Oklahoma (-21) Both teams off of a bye; TCU is solid…OU is that good and are playing w/revenge from a couple yrs back.
UAB at South Carolina (-22’) Spurrier should be able to let out the offense here a little…
Army at TAMU (-24) Wow..Army is that bad. TAMU looking to impress fans. Those idiot fans.
Kent St at Ball St (-14) How impressive have these guys been? Covering machines…Ball St that is.
USF at NC State (+12’) Good spot for USF but I’ll definitely be keeping this below 2 TD’s and then a little more
Colorado at Florida St (-7’) Tough to lay more than a score w/’Noles but I wasn’t that impressed with Buffs last Thurs
UCF at UTEP (+3’) CUSA scrum…
Illinois at Penn St (-17’) Full respect from me on the Lions
New Mexico at New Mexico St (Pk) Give me the winner and I’ll give you the cash
Idaho at San Diego St (-10) I think Idaho is the worst div 1 team…it’s close
Nevada at UNLV (Pk) Best possible spot for Wolfpack; still gotta give Vegas their due
San Jose St at Hawaii (-10’) Nice spot at home for Hawaii
W Kentucky at Kentucky (-25) Tough gm to line; hard to figure how much ‘Cats get up for in-staters
Arkansas St at Memphis (-5) Good spot for Memphis but Arkansas St has done nothing wrong this year to warrant a higher number
Troy at Oklahoma St (-21) Thought about making it higher consider the ugly spot for Troy
FIU at Toledo (-18) Can’t go under 17, won’t go over 21…
ULL at Kansas St (-20) ULL off big hm win while KSU stews an extra couple days off of bad loss…
North Texas at Rice (-14’) Points galore
Talk to ya later this week degenerates
Horses






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[RJ Esq]

Openers out now.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

 

[RJ Esq]

Based upon the openers, here's what I'm looking at:

Wake
Cincy
Rice
Oreg St +
Purdue +
Va Tech +
Bowling Green

 

[RetroVK]

i am a massochist .. why am i looking at this stuff ?

 

[RJ Esq]

i am a massochist .. why am i looking at this stuff ?

Because you know you're going to play.

 

[frankiegotti]

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:cheers: