SUNDAY MORNING COFFEE--Week 3 Review and Week 4 Line Predictions

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</td><td class="cc c">8:58 AM (2 hours ago)
This is not an offense that can win in the SEC

from Track Em Tigers by Col.Angus
Folks, we have all seen a lot of Auburn football and we have also seen a lot of bad offense from Auburn over the years because we just didn't get the top tier skill position players aside from the tailback position. We REALLY haven't had a game changing quarterback since Pat Sullivan, and I don't think we've ever had a game changing wide receiver. Good receivers yes, but game changers? I don't think so.
Having said that, I think we have a typical Auburn offense. Riches at tailback, a solid offensive line and mediocity everywhere else. If Tony Franklin wants to run the spread offense, great, just wait until we have the tools to run it. Right now we have a QB with a weak arm that consistently underthrows his very average receivers. Chris Todd may be a nice guy and may be a great JUCO QB but he does not have the stuff to win in the SEC. Its painful to watch him go through his progressions while the O-line struggles to hold back the rush, only to watch him throw a puff ball into double coverage.
So we know....as does everyone else....that we are going to run the ball to advance down the field. Therefore we saw what we saw tonight, a minimum of 8 players within 6 yards of the line on 1st and 2nd down. Our pathetic attempts to run outside are squashed quickly because we need blocking from the WR's to get past the line of scrimmage. There is absolutely NO FEAR of the passing attack because Todd cannot make a quick read and hit an open receiver without letting the defense get back into the play, his arm just isn't strong enough to make the defense pay for coverage lapses.
Kodi Burns DOES have that arm but he does NOT look at all comfortable in the offense and has been ineffective when he has played. The long and short is that we have played three games and we have not scored an offensive touchdown in 4 of the 6 halves we have played. I think the jury is in, and the verdict is Auburn is not ready to run the spread offense, our wide recievers can't block and can't get open on their pass routes. Chris Todd is not a legitimate passing threat and aside from Tistan Davis, our running backs do not have the speed to run outside the tackles consistently.
Here's the good news though, even though we only managed a lone field goal in offense tonight, we didn't lose. That being said, we stand to lose the rest of the games on the schedule that aren't homecoming opponents and that includes Vandy. I shudder to think what will happen next week against LSU and their speedy defense.
We are not prepared to take on such an opponent and unless we revert to a more standard offense featuring our running backs and utilizing the tight end as a blocker. We may still not score much but I can't believe it would look any nore inept than Franklins, Spread offese. Please Coach Tuberville, you still have a chance to to take advantage of our great defense and have a great season, but you must come to your senses and change our vapid offensive to a more traditional Auburn offense. Tell Tony, we tried it but it doesn't work and we aren't going to throw away our season to prove a point that already has been proven.






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</td><td class="cc c">8:58 AM (2 hours ago)
Had enough friends?

from Track Em Tigers by tigerstripe
I've posted this before and i'll say it again. This offensive system will not work in the SEC. Okay, maybe it will after 3 years of implementation and recruiting the right players but not any sooner than that. The question is, do we want to invest the time, energy, effort, money into becoming a team that resembles the early 90's University of Miami? It is just a different way to score and win, but do we want to get away from our roots of running the ball down your throat? After all we are Auburn and that is what we've built our traditions off of. I've been coaching for some time now at different levels of play and i will say that i am no expert but even i can tell you why this system will not work in the SEC.
1. Everything is out of the shotgun and mistakes will happen such as bad snaps, offensive linemen who jump offside because they can't hear the count. (We saw both of these in the Miss St. game)
2. When you do want to run, you ask the offensive linemen who stay in the 2 point stance because everything is out of the shot gun, to run block from their heels. When you run the ball the linemen need to be in the 3 point stance so they can fire out and hit the defense with some kind of speed/push.
3. When you do run, you only have 5 linemen blocking out of the 2 point stance. In the traditional running method, you have 5 linemen blocking out of the 3 point stance as well as 1 or 2 other running backs blocking for the ball carrier (also out of the 3 point stance).
4. Auburn doesn't have the recruits to win at this level with this offense. Don't get me wrong, I love our guys and they are great athletes, but if you are going to run this type of offense, you have to recruit the best WR, TE and QB and we did not recruit these type positional players. We recruited linemen who can run block and have asked them to become great pass blockers in a short amount of time. When they fail to pass block they get holding penalties. (ref. Miss St. game again) Because we didn't recruit WR's with world class speed, they don't get open as quick as the WR's say from Florida, Hawaii or Miami and therefore we see a lot of coverage sacks on the QB. Again an increase of holding penalties. And let's face it, I like Kodi and Chris, but neither were high on the National QB radar in High School for passing proficiency.
5. This new offensive scheme works at the high school level because H.S. QB's can't read defenses and therefore depend on the coaches to audible, which is a very good feature. Not sure it's worth changing a multi-million $ program just to use though. What was the difference between Brandon Cox walking up to the line and audibling based off of what he saw on defense and having the coaches do it from the sidelines. College QB's have the ability to read defenses or they wouldn't be playing at this level. Borges' system was a good mix of spread and traditional SEC running game.
6. The only thing that separates this offense from traditional spread offenses is that it's no huddle and the offense gets the play from the sidelines so the defense has to be ready to play and can't make adjustments. This is a great 2 minute drill offense but I'm not sure you want to hang your hat on.
7. The commentators said it best, "You can't date the spread offense, you have to marry it." I'm not sure Auburn or Tommy want to make this their bride. It's just not who we are and it will take years of recruiting changes to become proficient at. The spread is also very fickle. Sometime it looks flawless and awesome but most times it just looks bad (Miss St. game). Hawaii last year made it look great because they had the personnel to run it. However look what happened to Hawaii's spread offense when they faced a good UGA (SEC) defense... Do we really want to try to compete in the SEC with this type offense?
I even question Franklin's ability to call the right type of plays. Fourth qtr, late in the game and all you need is first downs to run the game out and what does he call: a play (again out of the shotgun - dangerous!) where the center snaps it back 4 yards and then the QB pitches it backward another 3 yards which turns into a fumble and recovery for Miss St. Therefore the ball was passed between 3 players over a total of 7 yards and Davis fumbled. The better play: under center, safe snap and a hand off to a tailback who has a fullback blocking for him. Clock runs, safe bet, ball control, positive results...
Let's face it, Auburn bailed this guy out by hiring him. Sure Troy's offense looked good - in the SUNBELT CONFERENCE. We took a big risk on this guy and we are watching him dismantle our offensive tradition. The commentators who do not follow AU football were questioning our offensive play calling.
These are just a few thoughts that i came up with from my recliner after the game. Heads up folks, here comes the tigers of LSU - WAR EAGLE!!!






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Sunday Hangover: It's Time To See Other People, Ohio State

Posted Sep 14th 2008 5:18AM by Ray Holloman (author feed)
Filed under: Ohio State, USC, General CFB Insanity
We thought this might be the one where Lucy keeps the football in place. This might be the time the Generals finally catch on to the Globetrotters shenanigans. Maybe this would be the one episode in which the Beav heads to Tijuana, consumes a few beverages, hijinks ensue and then someone slugs a cop (or as we think of it, the Hideki Irabu episode).

But in the end, it was more predictable than an episode of Baywatch. Lucy yanked the football away after sacking Todd Boeckman for the 10th time and we're left with the bucket of confetti all over us. It was the same, old story.

Ohio State football and the big stage: two things that go together like peanut butter and motor oil.

"Cop Rock" was better prepared for the primetime than the Buckeyes.

How bad was USC's 35-3 clobbering of Ohio State? Four cops and a shaky home video should have been involved. Rodney King no longer thinks we can all get along. The East Carolina police thought that was over the top. The Chinese government was fairly certain some sort of human rights violation took place.

The Trojans rolled up Ohio State like Vince Coleman in the Busch Stadium tarp, leaving Buckeye coach Jim Tressel to explain quietly what happened in another primetime meltdown a scene now as familiar a part of the college football landscape as BCS controversies, the Heisman Trophy and bail bondsmen.

And the once proud Ohio State brand, repping seven national championships and seven Heisman winners is about as hip as Joe Paterno's pantaloons drawer.

This time was no different after all. And like Jahvid Best, we just can't stomach it anymore. Ohio State, consider us broken up.

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Harry How, Getty Images
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Southern Cal 35, Ohio State 3: It's only September, but both the Trojans and Buckeyes are in January form; Southern Cal playing championship football and Ohio State getting blown out on national television.

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Week 3 Top Storylines

  • Southern Cal 35, Ohio State 3: It's only September, but both the Trojans and Buckeyes are in January form; Southern Cal playing championship football and Ohio State getting blown out on national television.
    Harry How, Getty Images
    Georgia 14, South Carolina 7: Nobody said it would be easy against the Ole Ball Coach and the Gamecocks' stingy defense. Knowshon Moreno rushes for 74 yards and the decisive touchdown, and follows up last week's leaping highlight by successfully hurtling Steve Spurrier's ego.
    Mary Ann Chastain, AP
    Maryland 34, Cal 27: The noon start time leaves the Bears sleepwalking for the first three quarters and the Terps hold on for a stunning upset just one week after losing to Middle Tennessee State. As usual, the penalty for losing to the ACC is relegation to the Lingerie Football League.
    Nick Wass, AP
    Notre Dame 35, Michigan 17: The Wolverines fumble the opening kickoff and its all downhill from there. Notre Dame, meanwhile, overcomes a hit to Charlie Weis that tears his ACL and MCL and leaves the coach on crutches, and survives the spittle from Lou Holtz's pre-game speech that fell through most of the second half.
    Michael Conroy, AP
    Iowa 17, Iowa State 7: The Hawkeye quarterback controversy heats up again, but Iowa moves to 3-0 and takes the Cy-Hawk Trophy from their rivals in front of a crowd of 70,000 fans, interestingly composed entirely of the Hawyekes' bail bondsmen.
    Charlie Neibergall, AP
    South Florida 37, Kansas 34: The Bulls rally from a 20-3 deficit in a matchup of climbing national programs. Maikon Bonani caps the comeback with a 42-yard game-winning field goal as time expires, providing a victory for his team, excitement for the fans and butt-sweat for some unlucky teammate carting him off the field.
    Reinhold Matay, AP
    Missouri 69, Nevada 17: Chase Daniel throws for 405 yards and four touchdowns and his backups lead two more scoring drives as Missouri wallops Nevada. The Tigers didn't punt until the fourth quarter, making punter Jake Harry the least used person in football this side of a Florida State academic adviser.
    Jamie Squire, Getty Images
    Illinois 20, Louisiana-Lafayette 17: The Ragin' Cajuns nearly turn into the worst cupcake since the Moon Pie, rallying from a 17-3 deficit, before falling 20-17. But on the upside, the Illini did manage to turn quarterback Michael Desormeaux into a really large helmet sticker and claimed a win over the team leading the nation in men whose last names end in "eaux," a little-known BCS component.
    Kelly J. Huff, The Herald & Review / AP
    Tennessee 35, UAB 3: The Vols bounce back from an opening week loss to BYU by rolling over the Blazers. Tennessee running backs account for 266 yards, although 240 were running from Phil Fulmer's summons servers.
    Wade Payne, AP
    Oregon 32, Purdue 26 (2OT): The Ducks fall behind 20-3 at halftime, survive a game-winning field goal try at the end of regulation and lose their quarterback to injury in overtime, but hang on to beat Purdue and avoid looking foolish on national television ... or at least as non-foolish as anyone dressed like a white tire can.
    Tom Strickland, AP
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<!-- END SWF PUBLISHER -->After all, we've seen this before.

First, there was the 41-14 clubbing in the 2006 BCS title game. Then, in 2007, the upstart Buckeyes made it to the BCS championship again in what should've been a rebuilding year ... and then did their best impression of Lehman Brothers' stock in a 38-24 implosion against LSU.

Now this.

Sylvester Stallone thinks you've put out too many sequels, Ohio State. Speed 2: Cruise Control and Jaws IV got together and decided this was unnecessary.

But we believed. We didn't ask for much, what with Chris Wells on the sideline, just that you didn't embarrass yourselves. Maybe that was like asking Steve Spurrier not to wear a visor or Oregon to wear uniforms that don't feature colors rejected by the 1998 Devil Rays or that might actually wind up in a Crayloa box. Maybe it was like asking Pacman, er Adam, Jones to stay away from the stripper.

Maybe it was our fault for expecting too much.

But we believed this one would be a little different, because of all that talent in scarlet and gray. Mature talent. Been there, seen that, beat them talent. This wasn't last year's glad-to-be-here team or 2006's shell-shocked team. This was a team that at least could go toe-to-toe defensively against anyone other than the Super Tecmo Bowl Bills.

We thought.

We should've considered that the Buckeyes have always had talent. Since Jim Tressel took over in Columbus, the Buckeyes have had 57 draft picks. Scouts project as many as 16 players on this team to go on to the NFL, including almost certain first rounders James Laurinaitis, Malcom Jenkins and Wells. Misfiring so many times with all that talent is like turning a lineup of Ruth and Maris into the Bad News Bears without Kelly Leak. It's like putting John, Paul, George and Ringo together in a band and getting Wham instead of the Beatles. It's like casting Bill Murray and Chevy Chase in a golf movie and getting "Who's Your Caddy?" instead of "Caddy Shack."

So Ohio State, we have to call it quits. We can't keep doing this self-destructive cycle. Our relationship isn't just dysfunctional. Amy Winehouse is dysfunctional. This is Charlie Sheen and Denise Richards marriage meets Andy Reid's kids at a Jackson family reunion screwed up.

And hey, we had some good times. The 2002 national championship win over a Miami team with as many offensive weapons on the field as actual weapons likely tucked into their uniforms was a helluva night. (And that definitely looked like pass interference to us.) And we'll never forget when Santonio Holmes and Ted Ginn took turns beating Notre Dame cornerbacks in the Fiesta Bowl like they were Usain Bolt racing against Charlie Weis on crutches. (Don't remember how that played out? Watch Colorado receiver George Hill demonstrate on a four-year-old kid). You're all a bunch of great guys and you've got a great personality (which isn't code for us thinking you're fat, though that is what we mean for Wisconsin), but it never works out in the end.

There was even a little sex appeal to start the night, with a nice drive and early 3-0 lead.

But after that field goal, the rest was exactly what a 1986 Mike Tyson might look like fighting your cat.

So here's what we need Ohio State. We need to see things can change rather than staying the course. You've gone from the cute co-ed in the sun dress in 2002 to the college football equivalent of Mom jeans by playing Boeckman over Terrelle Pryror, who was the only real offensive threat on the field tonight. Pryor was 7-for-9 and rushed for 40 yards. By comparison, Boeckman made Weis' afternoon, in which he tore both his ACL, MCL while being turned into a human grass stain, look comfortable.

In the second quarter with the game still in reach, Pryor rushed for 11 yards to spark a sagging Ohio State offense. Boeckman came in for the next play, just in time to throw a pick to a wide-open Rey Maualuga, who returned it for a touchdown that, while it didn't technically end the game, for all the world felt like it. On the next drive, Pryor rushed for 12 yards on the first play of the subsequent drive; Boeckman ended it with a fumble.

What's worse was that you even lost slow. The Buckeyes more than doubled USC's time of possession in the first half yet trailed 21-3 at the break. And what Southern Cal didn't do to you, you did to yourself, looking as unprepared as if the referee handed you the sheet music for Beethoven's Fifth Symphony and asked you to play. Blindfolded. You racked up six penalties, two turnovers and a missed field goal in the first half alone, including a holding penalty that negated the only trip to the end zone that wasn't at a light jog heading to the locker room.

Then when the Buckeyes went into catchup mode its lack of big-play threats was as obvious as Mr. Ed's nose on Tressel's face. The Buckeyes gained two yards in the third quarter and the only line in L.A. longer than the one to tee off on Boeckman was the one waiting on royalties from a Pam Anderson sex tape. If Boeckman didn't want to speak after the game, you can only assume it's because every major vital organ had been slammed upwards into his throat.

By the end of the game, Barbaro was rooting for your BCS hopes to be euthanized on the track.

So, Ohio State, we need to see some changes if this fandom thing is ever going to work out. Sure, it's tempting to stay with the way things are. The Buckeyes have more talent than anyone in the Midwest and as long as they stay within shouting distance of the Rust Belt, they'll rack up wins and give the alumni somewhere to go in January with the status quo. But outside the Big Ten, teams play better and teams scheme better than what you're bringing to the table.

It may mean more losses in the short term, but Ohio State, you've got to go back to the drawing board. We deserve better. Ohio State fans deserve better. The Buckeyes' legacy deserves better.

We'd be surprised if Ohio State didn't make it to the Rose Bowl, but unless things change, we won't be watching. In the first week of January we've got plans to see if Lucy will keep the ball down. This time will be the charm.

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The Big 16
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Find out who the nation's top teams are each week as we rank the best 16 and set up something heretofore unheard of in college football, a play...wait for it...off. At season's end, the top 16 will compete in two brackets -- the Fairburn, Ga. division, ancestral home of Hangover mancrush Eric Berry, and the erstwhile Fort Myers, Fla. division, ancestral home of the pizza bagel.

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  • 1. Oklahoma Sooners: We've ranked the Sooners No. 1 since the last Ohio State was being embarrassed on television in our preseason list and a 55-14 thumping of Washington doesn't change anything. We still want to see the Sooners against a team that isn't a cupcake or coached by a man leafing through Golf Magazine on the sidelines and wondering how to get that funny mark over the e in resume, but we still think the Sooners' defensive line has the advantage over USC's young front five. We think.
  • 1a. USC: Does anyone else find it a bit strange that the "next Reggie Bush" Joe McKnight played with the words "Pay Day" on his eye black, considering the first Reggie Bush is still caught up in pay-for-play allegations? Should Washington players honor alum Tank Johnson by putting NRA under their eyes? Or Oklahoma support Big Red Sports/Imports? Could the Trojans get a copy editor for their player's eye black?
  • 3. Georgia: Everybody in the SEC gets at least one ugly win and if Matt Stafford's receivers didn't drop more balls than puberty, the Bulldogs might've won easily.
  • 4. Florida Gators: The Gators move up a spot for doing nothing. Somewhere, every DMV worker that's ever waited on us smiles.
  • 5. Missouri: We're still wary of a defense Juice Williams picked apart in Week 1, but the Tigers offense put up 69 points against a solid Wolf Pack team, the most damage done in the state of Nevada without help from Pacman Jones.
  • 6. LSU: Les Miles was probably more likely to come out in a beanie than North Texas was to win, but the Tiger defense held the Mean Green to just 199 yards. Still, new quarterback Andrew Hatch has just one touchdown pass after two cupcake games.
  • 7. Ohio State: The sun will come up tomorrow, Buckeyes, although it'll probably be faster than anyone on your team.
  • 8. Auburn Tigers: Tommy Tuberville's career-long quest to kill offense finally has its apex -- Auburn 3, Mississippi State 2.
  • 9. Texas Tech Red Raiders: Michael Crabtree catches three touchdowns and the Red Raiders intercept Bo Levi Mitchell five times, a performance even Boeckman would have to cringe at.
  • 10. East Carolina Pirates: The Pirates nearly stumbled in their return to the small stage against Tulane, which after beating two ranked teams to start the season would be a little like tripping at the end of a marathon. By which we mean incredibly funny.
  • 11. Texas Longhorns: Hurricane Ike forced the Longhorns to postpone Saturday's game ... but probably still threw for 300 yards against Texas' young secondary.
  • 12. BYU: There's no controversy over unsportsmanlike penalties this week even though the Cougars have plenty to celebrate. Max Hall throws seven touchdowns as BYU makes a statement against Week 1 upset darling UCLA. For the Bruins, it's their worst loss since 1929, the year Rick Neuheisel's grandfather picked Butler to go all the way in the AAU hoops office pool.
  • 13. Wisconsin: Winning on the road halfway across the country against a ranked team is always impressive, even if you're outgained and benefit from a kicker with worse accuracy than Dick Cheney with a shotgun.
  • 14. Alabama: Impressive stat: The Tide won the rushing battle by 239 yards, roughly the length of Nick Saban's ego.
  • 15. Penn State: That's 560 yards of offense for Penn State's "Spread HD" attack, a handsome total even against a Syracuse team that's been downgraded from bad to awful to ACC.
  • 16. Oregon: Suddenly, starting quarterback for Oregon is now roughly as dangerous as being an oil driller, a North Sea fisherman or a member of the Cincinnati Bengals. Initial reports put Duck quarterback Justin Roper out for 2-4 weeks, which comes on the heels of last year's injury to Dennis Dixon and this year's season-ending injury to first-string signal caller Nate Costa.

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Cheerleaders dance before a World Cup 2010 qualifying game between Paraguay and Venezuela in Asuncion, Tuesday, Sept. 9, 2008.(AP Photo/Atilio Fernandez)
 
Does anyone have the link for the LVSC line openers? I used to have them on my computers favorites list but somehow it got erased when my computer got cleaned out.

Thanks in advance.
 
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</td><td class="cc c">11:19 AM (23 minutes ago)
Week 4 Line Projections

from underdogsofwar.com by horses
By Horses
Wed Nite
Kansas St at Louisville (Pk) Refuse to make KSU road chalk since they haven’t played anyone yet; not ready to give up on the ‘Ville quite yet.
Thurs Nite
West Virginia at Colorado (-3’) Sorry, gotta do it; large coaching edge to the Buffs here as well as big HFA. Talent is actually pretty close IMO.
Fri Nite
Baylor at UConn (-10’) Not gonna overreact to much to Huskies pasting of UVA; Cavs are about the worst BCS team out there.
Sat
Temple at Penn St (-33) How many would you need to take the pts?
UCF at BC (-14) both teams off of an early season bye…tough game to line
Ohio at Northwestern (-14) Maybe more considering Bob’s emotional state after 3 tough losses
Miami (Oh) at Cincinnati (-14) Rivalry game; I have no feel for Bearcat offense considering they’ve played a stiff and a top 3 team
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss (-6’) Two play on teams
Mississippi St at Ga Tech (-7) Two teams off of tough conf losses; think Bulldog defense will have a little trouble with offense they are not used to seeing
Wyoming at BYU (-35) Wyoming offense is one of the worst I’ve ever seen. Ever. Cougs can almost name the score.
LSU at Auburn (Pk) First one to 10 wins
Alabama at Arkansas (+10) Not sure the ‘Hogs are ready for this type of competition
Marshall at Southern Miss (-5) Usually by the 4<sup>th</sup> or 5<sup>th</sup> week, all CUSA teams start looking the same to me
Houston at Colorado (+4) Won’t overreact to Coug effort in Dallas, they’re still the better team here
Rutgers at Navy (+3) Put up or shutup time for the Scarlet Knights
Va Tech at North Carolina (-3’) Yeah…that’s right; you know they deserve the favorites role
Iowa at Pittsburgh (-4) Could make it higher then I remembered the coaches
Wake Forest at Florida St (-7) Probably not a popular line, but I think FSU is superior
Notre Dame at Michigan St (-6) These teams are virtual mirror images of each other
Boise St at Oregon (-14’) Tough line to make with the Roper injury; just don’t think BSU will score much regardless
Utah at Air Force (+7) No AF love from me
New Mexico at Tulsa (-4’) Very difficult game to ‘cap; tempting to make it higher but NM pretty superior on defense
Ball St at Indiana (-6’) Scorefest…
C Michigan at Purdue (-14) Double revenge for the Chips; same ‘Chips that gave up over 500 yds to Ohio U with their b/u QB
Akron at Army (+3’) Good Lord…
E Michigan at Maryland (-17) How can anyone ‘cap a Terps game?
Miami (Fl) at TAMU (+7) A little high perhaps, but TAMU needs to show me something
East Carolina at NCS (Pk) Not gonna overreact to dichotomy in records; these teams are close
Buffalo at Missouri (-29) See Missouri v Nevada LW
Fresno St at Toledo (+3) Giving Toledo a few pts for the horrible spot ‘Dogs are in
Rice at Texas (-30) Blowout
Idaho at Utah St (-3) Good Lord…Part II
TCU at SMU (+14) ‘Horned Frog flying under the radar as usual; definite look-ahead to OU next week
Florida at Tennessee (+7’) Don’t underestimate the ‘Vols here
Georgia at Arizona St (+7) Expect a supreme effort from Sun Devils
Iowa St at UNLV (-3’) Another tough game to ‘cap
San Jose St at Stanford (-6’) Spartans may actually be the better team at this point; their efforts the L2W have been superb
NMSU at UTEP (-4) First one to 60 wins
Arizona at UCLA (-3) Both teams off of forgettable performances; Bruins home/away splits are hard to ignore. Arizona isn’t very good…trust me.
Troy at Ohio St (-21) Maybe a little low, but I think Troy may catch OSU napping and they don’t have the playmakers to be caught napping (see Ohio game). My feeling is that Beanie may not play till Wisky now. We’ll see…
MTSU at Arkansas St (-6) Big SBC game; give edge to HT with slightly better team
ULM at Tulane (-5) intriguing, lower-tier southern tilt; we’ll see how Tulane reacts to being favored
FAU at Minnesota (-7’) tough spot for FAU making their 2<sup>nd</sup> str trip north to face a team bent on revenge (though Gophers and revenge is kinda funny)
USF at FIU (+21) seems about right
Kent St at ULL (pk) Who scheduled this?






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MWC line guesses:

WYO/BYU BYU -22
HOU/CSU HOU-3 ?? Really a guess here.
UTA/AFA Utah -4'
NMU/TUL TUL-8'
TCU/SMU TCU-17'
ISU/UNLV PK?? Another guess, don't know much about ISU.
 
Thx for the copy and paste RJ.

Just like to say that my lines have NOTHING to do with what I think they'll be released at and EVERYTHING to do with what I think they SHOULD be released at.
 
Thx for the copy and paste RJ.

Just like to say that my lines have NOTHING to do with what I think they'll be released at and EVERYTHING to do with what I think they SHOULD be released at.


Hence the reason that I agree 100% with your BYU line. Could be b2b shutouts for the Coogers.
 
Jpicks...:shake:

If it's anything close to what CB and GF are putting it at, I will be teeing it up for a bigger than normal bet.

If I could change one line, I would bump up USF closer to 28 over FIU.
 
Jpicks...:shake:

If it's anything close to what CB and GF are putting it at, I will be teeing it up for a bigger than normal bet.

If I could change one line, I would bump up USF closer to 28 over FIU.


Yeah, I think BYU is on a mission this year (mission, get it), so I will probably bite on anything less than 4 TDs against Wyoming. The main reason my line is under 3 TDs is b/c there isn't a lot of blowout history in this series that supports a 28+ line, but again, I am probably off on that one as I think 24.5 might be closer to the open than what I had.
 
There were a number of weird matchups that were tougher than usual for me to come up with lines on this week by the way, so not gonna be surprised at all if I am off on more than a few.
 
surprised to see kent st at +1 or as high as a 6 pt dog from some of you...i would make them -3.5...if they're in the +3 or +4 range i will certainly be on that one
 
OK, here are my line predictions based on PRs not on where I think Vegas will release:

In the order of CB/Matador/Garfather/MW/RJ (CB--use the rotation in post #1 next time):

Louisville +5.5/+4/NL/+6/+7 vs KSU
Colorado +4.5/PK/-1.5/+4/-3 vs WVU
UConn -10.5/-10/-14/-14/-17 vs Baylor
Auburn +6.5/+2/+3/-3/+2 vs LSU
Stanford -3.5/-6/-14/-10/pk vs SJSU
FSU +1.5/-9/pk/-8/pk vs Wake
NW -10.5/-10/-20/-10/-13 vs Ohio
Arkansas +14.5/+3/+10/+9/+7 vs Alabama
UCLA +6/+3/+4.5/PK/-1 vs Arizona
GT -4.5/-8/-9/-10/-5 vs Miss St
Indiana -12.5/-1/-6/-7/-4 vs Ball State
BC -14.5/-9/-17/-9/-9 vs UCF
Maryland -24/-15/-20/-20/-22 vs EMU
Minny -10.5/-10/-7/-6/-4 vs FAU
Ole Miss +5.5/-6/-6/-5.5/-6 vs Vandy
UNC pk/-6/-3.5/-4/-2 vs VT
Penn St -26/-24/-34/-31/-23 vs Temple
Army +4.5/+7/PK/+10/+8 vs Akron
Cincy -10.5/-13/-14.5/NL/-17 vs Mia OH
Oregon -8.5/-12/-10.5/-10/-8 vs Boise
Tulane -3.5/-7/-4/-7/-5 vs ULM
BYU -18.5/-25/-20/-20-26 vs Wyoming
CSU +6.5/-4/-3/+10/+2 vs Houston
SMiss -8.5/-6/-7.5/-5/-5 vs Marshall
MSU -1.5/-6/-8/-7/-11 vs ND
Mizzou -28.5/-24/-36/-35/-27 vs Buffalo
NC State +6.5/+6/+1/+7/-2 vs ECU
Pitt +3/-1/-3/PK/+1 vs Iowa
Texas -31.5/-24/-27/-34/-24 vs Rice
Arkie St -3.5/-7/-3/-4/-3 vs MTSU
Purdue -10.5/-10/-14/-21/-9 vs CMU
Tenn +8/+6/+9.5/+5/+11 vs Florida
Ohio St -24.5/-21/-28.5/-17/-22 vs Troy
Navy -2/+7/+5/+8/+5 vs Rutgers
AFA +10.5/+14/PK/+2/+8 vs Utah
Tulsa -13/-6/-7.5/-6/-8 vs NM
ULL -1/PK/-1/-6/-5 vs Kent
Toledo +12.5/+4/NL/+6/+12 vs Fresno
SMU +21/+20/+14.5/+17/+19 vs TCU
UNLV +2/_4/NL/PK/+7 vs ISU
A&M pk/PK/+2.5/PK/-2 vs Miami
FIU +28/+24/+23.5/+28/+23 vs USF
Utah St +6.5/-3/-7/-7/-1 vs Idaho
ASU +7/+8/NL/+4.5/+6 vs Georgia
Utep -9.5/-5/-3/-7/+2 vs NMSU
 
Perfect ATS Teams
Duke
Georgia Tech
Penn State
Wisconsin
Iowa St
Mizzou
Oklahoma State
Texas
Tulane
Tulsa
USM
Ball State
NIU
Ohio
Temple
AFA
TCU
USC
Troy
Vanderbilt
SJSU

Perfect ATS Losers
Syracuse
Rutgers
Pitt
Houston
Washington State
NM State
 
OK, here are my line predictions based on PRs not on where I think Vegas will release:

In the order of CB/Matador/Garfather/MW/RJ (CB--use the rotation in post #1 next time):


No sweat will do. As noted earlier, was working off a matchup page print out for week 4 so just listed em as they were ordered. Normally I am not first up with the lines, so I just end up putting the matchup page numbers in order according to the rotation listed on here. No harm no foul, will align to the rotation if I am ever first up again in the future.
 
LVSC numbers don't look as wild as they've been the last couple of weeks.

A few funny ones but it looks like they're honing in.......
 
They're getting better.

We'll see how much movement we get between LVSC and BetCris.

Last week a few of them moved by as much as a TD.

I'm still convinced that they look at some of our threads (not just on this board but on others) to get an idea what the sharp public bettors are thinking.
 
My opening shopping list based upon the LVSC numbers are:

KSU
Colorado +
Penn St
LSU
BYU
Wake +
Utah
Texas
Fresno St
 
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