SUNDAY MORNING COFFEE--Week 2 Recap and Week 3 Line Predictions




RJ Esq

RJ Esq

Prick Since 1974
Week 3 Matchups--Updated at 2:30 p.m. with My Line Predictions and Thoughts

301 maryland
302 west virginia -14

303 kansas
304 toledo -7

305 iowa state
306 iowa -15

307 byu
308 boston college -2

309 syracuse -4
310 illinois

311 temple
312 minnesota -32

313 cincinnati
314 ohio state -32

315 duke
316 virginia tech -40

317 wake forest
318 connecticut -1

321 marshall
322 kansas state -12

323 ohio
324 rutgers -12

325 ball state
326 purdue -15

327 akron
328 central michigan -3

329 kent state
330 miami ohio -3

331 eastern michigan
332 northwestern -15

333 south florida
334 central florida pk

335 san diego state
336 wisconsin -12

337 boise state -15
338 wyoming

339 michigan state
340 pittsburgh -2

341 florida
342 tennessee -1

343 baylor
344 washington state -9

345 michigan
346 notre dame -3

347 oklahoma
348 oregon -9

349 miami florida
350 louisville -4

353 mississippi
354 kentucky -9

355 texas -35
356 rice

359 memphis
360 east carolina -6

Fresno St -10
Washington

TCU
Texas Tech -9

361 uab
362 georgia -23

363 tulane
364 mississippi state -8

365 north carolina state
366 so mississippi -1

369 arizona state -14
370 colorado

371 lsu
372 auburn -5

373 buffalo
374 northern illinois -25

375 clemson
376 florida state -6

377 nebraska
378 usc -13

379 missouri -17
380 new mexico

381 utah -16
382 utah state

383 colorado state
384 nevada -8

385 army
386 texas am -23

387 navy -9
388 stanford

397 florida atlantic
398 oklahoma state -28

399 north texas
400 tulsa -17

Arkansas -7
Vandy

There may be some other games out there. Noticed a few missing.
 
Last edited:
301 maryland
302 west virginia -9.5

303 kansas
304 toledo -6

305 iowa state
306 iowa -7

307 byu
308 boston college -6.5

309 syracuse
310 illinois +2.5

311 temple
312 minnesota -18.5

313 cincinnati
314 ohio state -23

315 duke
316 virginia tech -26.5

317 wake forest
318 connecticut ???

321 marshall
322 kansas state -9

323 ohio
324 rutgers -15

325 ball state
326 purdue -14

327 akron
328 central michigan ???-4???

329 kent state
330 miami ohio???

331 eastern michigan
332 northwestern -3

333 south florida
334 central florida -7

335 san diego state
336 wisconsin -10.5

337 boise state
338 wyoming +8

339 michigan state
340 pittsburgh -4.5

341 florida
342 tennessee +3

343 baylor
344 washington state -6

345 michigan
346 notre dame -7.5

347 oklahoma
348 oregon -1.5

349 miami florida
350 louisville pickem

353 mississippi
354 kentucky +3

355 texas
356 rice +33.5

359 memphis
360 east carolina -10

361 uab
362 georgia -20.5

363 tulane
364 mississippi state -8

365 north carolina state
366 so mississippi -2.5

369 arizona state
370 colorado +13

371 lsu
372 auburn -5.5

373 buffalo
374 northern illinois -16

375 clemson
376 florida state -6.5

377 nebraska
378 usc -11

379 missouri
380 new mexico +8.5

381 utah
382 utah state +15

383 colorado state
384 nevada -7

385 army
386 texas am -24

387 navy
388 stanford -4.5

397 florida atlantic
398 oklahoma state -19.5

399 north texas
400 tulsa -10.5
 
If Michigan gets anything over 4 will play 2-3 units. I figure it will be 4.5

No way it's 7.5
 
As far as week 2

Looks like a lot of guys had awesome days. Its great to see the forum winning. For those that didn't, we know you will be right back up there next week.

I am overall happy with my day. I really wanted to hit Air Force all wek but I didn't and it makes me mad now. Oh well, what a finish there.

NC STate should lay points to nobody.

Turnovers and special teams were huge today. One play can change a game. The start of day when Rutgers had a 78 yard Punt was what really got them going. From there a block punt and it got worse and worse for Illinois.

Great games coming up this week.

Love Louisville at a PK. I would value this line at about 6 honestly. Thats being gracious too.

Minny -18.5 to Temple...lol...The Gophers maul teams up at the Dome. Home opener off loss tonight....thats a 51-2 kinda affair. I will lay up to 4 TD's

I like Clemson and FSU to be a 4 point game or less either way.

I do think that NIU takes out frustartion on Buffalo. Buffs of long draining game today. Not sure if I have balls to back Huskies though.

Wazzou will open much higher than that IMO

Toledo at 6 may be a gift

SDSU plus the points perhaps?



Many more thoughts later.
 
37-57

HUNTDOG said:
minny -100
Click to expand...

I'll put a unit on that.

I may have some thoughts on this week later on. Right now, I'm still trying to digest yesterday and why I'm still grumpy about some of those games.

Okay, here's one. New Mexico St turned the ball over way too goddamned much. I looked at the box score in the 3rd, and NMSU already had 1 int thrown and 4 fumbles dropped. Apparently they tried to lose a 5th. But beyond the stupid turnovers, the aggies beat up on the Lobos in almost every aspect of that game, and with 5 turnovers still managed a backdoor cover for the early spread. 528 yards to 427 yards. 8-17 3rd downs converted to 4-13. 37-57 compared to 12-28...BUT, Aggies gave up bigger passing plays, and the Lobos were able to run for over 4ypc and NMSU couldn't even get 2. Not sure about the complexion of that game because I couldn't see it. Anyone get/bother to watch? Both of these teams strike me as not worth much money this season except, perhaps, as a small home dog.

I will be back with more during niffel, I'm sure.
 
okay, I have some time.

First, as others have noted, NCSU should be laying points to just about no one now. Akron was better for almost the whole game. Marcus Stone managed to have a good passing day (in the 4th quarter, anyway), and I am profoundly surprised by that. He did throw one pick, but if someone had told me he would throw the ball 30 times, I'd say he will throw 3 or 4 picks. Chuck can take some comfort in Stone improving. However, that Defense sucked ass, especially when it counted at the end. The wolfpack gave up 389 yards including 148 on the ground for 3.5ypc. SURPRISE~!!!!
Wolfpack also coughed up 3 fumbles and lost 2. I love it when a plan comes together. MAYBE NCSU should have been favored by 1.5 or 2. But favoring the pack a FG would have been too much. 10 is just assinine.
Akron has kicker probs. Akron could have been more consistent. BUT, Akron came away with a win after NCSU came back to take the lead with 1 minute left. This is a most excellent game for the Zips.

Duke had a good passing day. Wake was playing no-tackle defense, and Duke's receivers were actually CATCHIng THE bALL. Wake had to come back in a last minute drive of their own to win this game by 1. This does not mean that Duke is so much better.......rather that Wake is so much worse than we thought. It will be interesting to see how the Deacs react to this scare next week. I mean, they damn near lost AT HOME to DUKE. Lots of turnovers in this game, and the Blue Devils outgained the Deacs 353-286. Honestly, Duke played a better game up until 6 minutes were left. whups. Good call to you guys who had Duke +points. That was never in doubt.


Wyoming UVA. Anyone see this game? I didn't. All I know is the cowboys lost in OT on a missed PAT after outgaining UVA 295-183 with a well-balanced offense. WYO gathered 4.7 ypc, and they were perfect on 4th down. I hate that I lost this ML. Hate it with a frickin passion. So, anyone see this one?

Tulsa got spanked. BYU woke up. They're also still very penalty prone. 11 for 90 yards. Even so, the mormons got 467 total offensive yards compared to Tulsa's 303. BYU does indeed have an offense.....at least against a shit ass defense. Did Tulsa bother to put 11 men on the field? Or did they try to defend with 9 or 10?

Notre Dame got it done. Do we need a recap? Morelli got his ass kicked, and Quinn did indeed get his heisman run started. The box score is similar except for the turnovers. Nittany lions got 362 yards compared to ND's 373, but PSU tossed a pick and fumbled twice giving ND points of turnovers. My ML bet here never stood a chance. WAS THE GRASS LONG??!?! Brady Quinn looked sharp yesterday. You guys who took ND chalk, good read on this weekend. As herbstreit said, that offense is fine.

Kent St and Army. WOW these teams are bad. Not quite as bad as temple/buffalo, but both of these teams TRieD to lose the game, and Kent st eventually managed... At +260, I'd do this again. Kent had more than a fair shot at winning this game, and ARMY CANNOT STOP KENT'S RUN ATTACK. It's going to be a long year for the Knights. Army cannot stop the run. Delayed QB draw, delayed handoffs, straight up the got, bounc to the outside, toss to the outside........nothing. Army could not stop it. Remember this for their upcoming games. Maybe laying reasonable chalk is a good idea against these weenies. Oh, and Kent couldn't stop a damn thing. Neither team managed 300 yards of offense, and it wasn't a great defensive game. It was just, well, ass.

Louisville @ Temple. Hmmmmmmmm. Didn't see it. Didn't matter. Damn near covered by halftime. If the line is lower for next week, I'll double my bet this time. MAN what a terrible team.

Pittsburgh Cinci. This game was closer than the score indicates. However, Pitt managed a win on the road, and a convincing one at that. Not that cinci is a great powerhouse, and I'll be real interested to see the line this weekend.......but Pitt has a team that should beat lesser teams this year. Hey! What a concept! They won't compete with Louisville or WVU, but against most anyone else in the big east they have a shot...

okay, I gotta run. more later.
 
already on it flava....sportsbook preseason when i heard about bomar. never wouldve known about this great value bet at -1 if not for horn
 
I haven't decided what to do on the Oklahoma/Oregon game yet if I do anything at all. After watching the defense look like shit for part of the game yesterday, I almost decided to just go with Oregon -- and I may yet.

The main reasons I can see taking Oregon is the double revenge factor, the home field advantage, and the fact this will be Thompson's first road game ever.

But, I can see several reasons to take Oklahoma as well.

- First off, Oklahoma went 4 weeks of closed practices because supposedly they were working on "new twists to the offense." They were either bullshitting everyone, or they were actually doing it, but have not showed it yet. What I have seen so far has been very vanilla in the last two games. I truly believe we will be seeing the "new twists" this week.

-- D. J. Wolfe has been playing like shit and getting burned on a regular basis at cornerback. In Saturday's game against Washington, he lost his starting job to Lendy Holmes. That will make Oklahoma's defense better in itself.

-- Oklahoma's defense played a little better Saturday, but is still not on par with where they should be. Their not getting into proper position and their tackling is still poor. They have been playing like a crew without motivation. If they can't get motivated for this game, then they can't get motivated. I look for some great effort to be out in this game on both sides.

-- Adrian Peterson thrives to play BIG games. These are usually where he has his best performances.

I haven't made up my mind on this game yet. But I thought it might be good to throw all these factors out for those who are contemplating plays on this game.
 
If USC is anywhere near single digits im on it. They have beaten down teams at home by 30+ over the past 3 years on average. Then factor in they have had a week off to prepare.. YUMMY
 
Would like dmac and horses thoughts on SDST... Strengths/weaknesses... to see how they match up against wisky - I feel wisky will be a good fade team here as the season moves on, but i'd put the line around -14 wisky. The run game is still solid. PJ Hill has been dominant, but if anything happens to stocco, god help em.
 
Heh, guys I'm still digesting yesterday, but as long as the Bears manage to not lose by 18, I'm up a shitload again this week. At last check, Chicago is up 16-0.

:smiley_acbe:

Okay, I'm going to continue a few more thoughts about yesterday. I could continue lambasting NCSU, but I think you guys get the point. The Wolfpack is a bunch of ass suckers this year, and they should wind up at the bottom of their division. It is POSSIBLE STILL that the wolfpack my lay some chalk again. If so, bet against.

I'd like to hear from the Maryland guys if they think UMD can possibly keep it within 3 TDs at WVU. I kinda doubt it, and my guesses at lines are notoriously horrible, but I want someone who knows the team better than I to tell me what he thinks. So have at it. MARYLAND?

Did anyone notice that Northwestern lost their home opener against New Hampshire? This team should have been on an emotional high to "Win it for the dead coach", but they shit the bed...and decidedly at 34-17. The yardage is about equal, and NW managed 5ypc on the ground...perhaps NW is turnover prone? Perhaps we should keep an eye on NH too...might be another real good dog spot later on this season.

I watched Eastern Michigan take on the Spartans yesterday. MSU gave up a few trick plays including a surprise onside kick that the spartans damn near didn't bother covering. They cruised through the first 2 quarters, and EMU went in to halftime only down 3. Now, once the Spartans kicked it in gear, and paid better attention on defense to stop trickery...EMU was crushed. But against stout competition this MSU squad may have more trouble with these focus issues. If they play Pitt next week like they did EMU this week, they will LOSE. Don't let the boxscore yardage and ypc fool you. EMU played above their level, sure, but MSU looked like shit until the 3rd quarter, and if the spartans do that crap against even the panthers, they'll give up the ghost. Wannstadt style won't let them come back... This is the second game where MSU has underperformed, and the worst thing for them was that not only did they win, but they COVERED. It may sound stupid as hell for me to say this, but EMU gave a bit of a run yesterday, and MSU failed to respond until after half. They tried to make it look better by running up the score on a demoralized bunch of EMUs. But this bunch looked shitty as hell. It's a trojan horse of Cards there, fellas. play MSU with a great deal of caution. I did lose my EMU bet yesterday, but I would absolutely play it again.

Washington Pushed for me, but I think for most folks, OU won it. But let's analyze what happened. 373-454 yards total. Huskies ran 70 plays; sooners ran 66. Huskies ran for 200 yards at 5.2ypc, and the sooners ran for 176 for 5.3 ypc. Huskies passed 29 times, completed 13 of them between 3 QBs, and gathered 166 yards. Thompson went 22-33 (66%!!) for 278 yards. AP ran for 165 yards. He was great, but Thompson really lit it up. Maybe Washington put 12 in the box and assumed Thompson would throw it in the dirt...

But what it all means to me is that OU moved the ball more with the pass than with the rush. Maybe this doesn't work without Adrian Peterson in the lineup, but the point remains that AP didn't beat the huskies. Thompson did with his arm. Sooners, tell me if I'm out of line and giving the kid too much credit, but this doesn't look like the moronic pushover folks have been making him out to be. Seems to me OU can move the ball both ways. Is there trouble in the Sooners defense, though? Or is the Husky run offense just that good? I have trouble believing the latter, but the former seems plausible. Which is it?

LSU vs Arizona. That was silly. Why'd Zona even show up?

Lafayette at TAMU. Ditto.

okay, I have a headache now.

speak to me, fellas.:4_12_12:
 
geezus, if I could get over 2 TDs for Iowa St vs Iowa, I'd do that. Hell yeah, I'd do that. I'd also take that ML.
 
good stuff redbearde..I don't really like this OU team so far, they don't seem to tackle very well at all, and they need to come out of the gate with more intensity instead of waiting until the second half. If they are asleep aginst Oregon rearly it might be a long day. I cannot back Paul Thompson in his first road start, especially in one of the loudest stadiums in the country. On the other side Oregon's Dixon is damn impressive to me, they are runninga hurry up offense and I love it.
 
huntdog, with OU's questionable run defense, and with what Oregon has been doing with the run, I can't blame you. I think Oregon will run it down the sooners' throats all game just like they did to the TREE in week 1. I tend toward playing dogs, though if I get a number that gives me a hardon, I will certainly play Oregon minus a few. Hell, I played em yesterday just before the game. But I got a number I could tolerate with juice I liked. =)

I can't wait for some numbers....
 
Fondy, I have this spread a bit lower, at 10; San Diego St is off a bye, but so is Wisconsin essentially. QB O'Connell got hurt for the Aztecs and will be out at least 6 weeks; backup Mougey was former HC Craft's highest rated recruit during his tenure, and has this is his 3rd year in the system as a Redshirt Soph; as you can tell from his numbers from the UTEP game, he represents absolutely no dropoff from O'Connell whatsoever. Yes, it will be his first road start, but his teammates remark how competitive this kid is, and I think he'll be fine. Nothing either team has done, has caused me to drastically adjust my power ratings from the beginning of the season. Sure, the Badgers waxed BG, but I bet them to do so, and thought they should have been favored by a lot more. BG sucks...they gave up 40 to Buffalo.

San Diego has a much improved DL, and if you look at the UTEP stats, you'll see they performed fairly well. I see a lower scoring game, and I don't think one can lay too many points here, so I see a number closer to 10 than 14. We'll see in a bit.
 
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