SUNDAY MORNING COFFEE--Week 1 Review and Week 2 Line Predictions

Our boy, Garf, posted his line predictions:

Line Predictions Week 2

from underdogsofwar.com by TheGarfather
Basically nothing went right this week. Passed on winners, liked the losers. Typical week one for me. Would really like to get to week 3 or 4 with little to no damage. 8 SU underdog winners have come through so far which is abnormally high for the first weekend of college football. Arkansas State which opened at 18:1 was the biggie.
South Carolina -10 @ Vanderbilt
Navy @ Ball State -2
EMU @ Michigan State -25
MiamiOH @ Michigan -21
Northwestern -6 @ Duke
GT @ BC -5
West Virginia -11 @ ECU
Minnesota @ BG PK
S. Miss @ Auburn -23.5
Tulane @ Alabama -30
SJSU @ Nebraska -22
Utah State @ Oregon -32
Cincinnati @ Oklahoma -24.5
Ohio @ Ohio State -28
Marshall @ Wisconsin -24
MiamiFL @ Florida -17.5
Texas Tech -18 @ Reno
CMU @ UGA -29
Oregon State @ PSU -14.5
Air Force @ Wyoming -3
BYU -9.5 @ Washington
SDSU @ Notre Dame -23
Texas A&M -3 @ New Mexico
Buffalo @ Pittsburgh -15
Houston @ Okie State -16.5
Mississippi @ Wake Forest -5.5
California -10 @ Washington State
South Florida -21.5 @ UCF
Connecticut -7 @ Temple
LaTech @ Kansas -22
Rice @ Memphis -1
UNLV @ Utah -16.5
Toledo @ Arizona -20
Texas -18.5 @ UTEP
FIU @ Iowa -28
Tulsa -17.5 @ North Texas
UAB @ FAU -12.5
Maryland -14 @ MTSU
Troy @ LSU -35
 
<table><tbody><tr><td colspan="3" class="storytitle">Instant Analysis: Illinois-Missouri </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="primaryimage" valign="top">
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</td> <td valign="top"> <table bgcolor="#f5f5f5" border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1" width="60%"> <tbody><tr valign="top"> <td valign="middle" nowrap="nowrap">By Matt Zemek
Staff Columnist
Posted Aug 31, 2008
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Before he got dinged up in the fourth quarter, Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin was able to provide the key turning point for his team in a scintillating St. Louis showdown.
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The sixth-ranked Tigers proved to be superior to the 20th-ranked Illini over the course of 60 minutes, but in order for Gary Pinkel’s team to prevail in this contest, the boys from the Big 12 needed a jolt in a moment of uncertainty.

Just over 20 minutes into the proceedings, Chase Daniel—Missouri’s Heisman-caliber quarterback—threw a shocking interception that turned into a pick-six and a 13-10 Illinois lead. After 20 minutes of controlling the line of scrimmage, the Tigers stood on the wrong side of the scoreboard because of two titanic turnovers: this pick-six from Daniel’s arm, and a fumble on a play that had gained a first down inside the Illini 15. Instead of leading 17-6, Missouri trailed by a field goal.

When a group of young collegiate athletes plays well but has nothing to show for it, heads can drop. Shoulders can sag. Confidence—under such circumstances—has been known to evaporate. Effort level (like pad level) has been known to deteriorate for a football family. Missouri wound up scoring over 50 points against Illinois on Saturday night, but after that paralyzing pick-six early in the second quarter, there was no way to know how well the Tigers would respond. They were in a position of difficulty, and whenever a game isn’t flowing in the right direction, a ballclub needs a pick-me-up to regain the momentum that produces superior performance. No sport on earth requires confidence more than big-time college football, and when Missouri fell behind the boys from Champaign, the Big 12 North favorites had to get a thunderbolt to erase the bad mojo from their sideline.

It was at this very point that Mr. Maclin—pre-injury—rose to meet the moment.

With a few slight jukes and shimmies, and a lot of explosively straightforward speed, Maclin took the ensuing Illinois kickoff 99 yards to paydirt. The bitter taste of trailing a game despite winning the battle of the trenches was immediately expunged from the Missouri mindset, and unsurprisingly, the Tigers—newly liberated by their ability to answer the Illinois touchdown—loosened up as the second quarter continued. Playing with increased fearlessness and improved precision, the Tiger offense—no longer pressing or feeling burdened by the occasion—reeled off four touchdowns in the game’s next 21 minutes, and by that time, Missouri had accumulated a 45-20 bulge. The Illini and quarterback Juice Williams responded valiantly, cutting the lead to 45-35 and driving deep into Missouri territory, but the Tigers’ defense came up with a crucial sack to blunt the last Illinois charge, and the outcome was settled.

College football fans were able to see Missouri’s offense shift into high gear in the middle third of this consequential collision, but in order for the Tigers to unleash their arsenal on the Illini’s overmatched defense, someone had to bring confidence back to the Missouri huddle. Jeremy Maclin initiated that process, and that’s why his kick return represented, by far, the biggest single play of Saturday night’s game.

In a sport where emotions are as central to a game’s outcome as they are volatile, Maclin did more than anyone else to ensure that Missouri had the better of the emotional battle. If the Tigers find themselves in the thick of the national title race at the end of the 2008 season, they’ll look </td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Tommy Bowden Reverses Trend, Decides to Start Big Game Choking Early This Year

Posted Aug 31st 2008 12:00AM by Will Brinson (author feed)
Filed under: Alabama, Clemson, ACC
bowden-fail.jpg

"WTF. December already?"

The Clemson Tigers were the hope of the ACC this year, especially after Virginia Tech coughed up an L to East Carolina in Charlotte earlier today.

Yes, I understand that Wake Forest and *shudder* North Carolina are supposed to finish with good records and have dangerous teams (note that Carolina only beat McNeese St. by a touchdown). But still, Clemson, Tommy Bowden, Lightning, Thunder, Hope.

Or, at the very least, I think we all believed that maybe Tommy could take his team deep enough into the season with a high enough rank that the BCS berth they earned vis a vis the ACC title would seem legitimate. Okay, okay, fine. We knew that Clemson wouldn't be flat out embarrassed by Nick Saban and Alabama in Atlanta during week one.

Or, perhaps I'm delusional. Because Clemson got destroyed 34-10 by the Tide on Saturday night, in the ACC's third consecutive national television debacle of the first weekend of the college football season.



The score should have been worse than it was, especially considering 'Bama settled for three field goals deep inside Tiger territory, and Clemson's lone TD came off a C.J. Spiller kickoff return to open the second half.

Yes, Alabama is much, much, better than anyone could have thought -- I think. Because I'm not totally ready to say that Clemson is much, much, much-much-much worse than anyone could have possibly imagined. But when you have the best running back tandem in the entire country in Spiller and James Davis, and they somehow manage to only put together 20 total rushing yards, well, something is wrong.

Which could be the fact that they only attempted eight rushes. Which speaks volumes about what type of coach they have running the show down in Death Valley; one who, had his father not allegedly punted a game his way a few years ago, might still be looking for a job.

Granted, Clemson didn't do anything with any of their rushing attempts, but, it seemed from the get-go (and I noted this in the evening football chat) that Bowden would abandon the obvious gameplan and attempt to air it out, like some rookie NCAA '09 player. Which, incidentally, is exactly what happened.

Again, not to take away from the Tide -- John Parker Wilson looked vastly matured, the 'Bama defense was absolutely stifling, and Mark Ingram and Glen Coffee might have averaged about 19.2 yards per carry, or at least it felt like it. But there was something significantly missing from Clemson as a whole. And whether or not you believe in intangibles, you certainly have to believe in "coaching", and the Tigers lacked it Saturday night.
 
Young secondary makes the grade in opener

By Cedric Golden
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Will Muschamp may need to switch to decaf.
Texas' new defensive coordinator actually sprinted 10 yards toward an official in the second quarter, knelt down and pounded the sideline boundary, just to make sure the ref knew the Florida Atlantic receiver was clearly out of bounds when he caught the ball.
The ref had already signaled an incomplete pass and was jogging back to the field of play.
That's Wild Willie. Organized. Thorough. Intense. Leaving no stone unturned. No sideline boundary unpounded.
He has work to do, too. So does secondary coach Duane Akina. A starting defensive backfield of senior cornerback Ryan Palmer, sophomore cornerback Chykie Brown and two freshman safeties — Blake Gideon and Earl Thomas — doesn't conjure up descriptive terms such as "experience" and "seasoned." But this group made the grade in Saturday's 52-10 dismantling of Florida Atlantic.
Florida Atlantic quarterback Rusty Smith was as good as advertised. Kosar-like efficiency led to 151 passing yards in the first quarter, a 4-of-5 conversion rate on third down, and six completions of at least 10 yards in the first half. Early growing pains for Texas weren't unexpected with a good passing offense coming in here, but a large dose of settle-down was needed.
It was administered at the half by the coaching staff.
Thomas said he spent the first half adjusting to the crowd noise and the atmosphere created by the biggest crowd to see a football game in Texas. By the second half, he said the jitters were a thing of the past.
"They showed some progress back there,'' said linebacker Roddrick Muckelroy of Thomas and Gideon. "They're playing in front of 98,000 people now, not 1,300. Once they settled down, things started to get better."
Coach Mack Brown believed FAU to be the best team he has faced in a season opener at Texas, so to hold the Sun Belt Conference player of the year to a single touchdown pass when he threw 32 last season is a nice feat for Texas' inexperienced secondary.
That said, the opponents will get tougher. Maybe not so much this week in El Paso, but certainly against Arkansas in game three. Muschamp didn't need a film projector to know improvement is needed, but it's a lot easier to coach a team that just held its opponent to 10 points and 253 yards in the opener than it would be to coach a group that was shredded on the scoreboard and on the stat sheets.
"We obviously made some mistakes in the first half,'' said Muschamp, who had to be told after the game that he had an enormous scratch dominating the left side of face. "We didn't perform well on third down and we know we will have to make a lot of improvements from game one to game two."
Muschamp understands the process will be season-long. It can also be said that a lot of improvement was made in the second half, though the 62-yard reception by FAU's Jamari Grant in the third quarter will be prominently featured in film study this week.
That play included, the Owls threw for only 102 yards in the final three quarters, though it should be mentioned that FAU coach Howard Schnellenberger sat Smith in the final quarter.
The secondary will remain Muschamp's top priority given its youth, and it shouldn't be a surprise that he had few complaints about the front seven, who didn't register a sack against FAU's sliding protection scheme but kept good pressure on Smith. The Owls aren't a running team, and the 37 yards they gained on 23 carries shouldn't be over-examined.
Not a bad opener overall. Muschamp shouldn't have many complaints. He will find some. It's the only way improvement will lead to better production and the ultimate goal — consistency.
"He's a real intense coach,'' said Thomas. "He has a lot of confidence in the young guys."
And how does Muschamp show confidence in the young guys, Earl?
"He put us out there, didn't he?" Thomas replied.
Good point.
 
Western Michigan Post Game Overreaction - Hungover Version

Photo_6_tiny.jpg
by corn blight on Aug 31, 2008 7:46 AM CDT in Football
Normally I try to write one of these right after the game is over, but I don't think that would have been the best idea late last night, so instead, here it is early this morning.
I haven't looked at stats, nor watched the game again, just a (somewhat) initial overreaction from a fuzziy-minded guy who is not a morning person.
- Unimpressed with our offensive line, especially in run blocking.
- Cody Glenn. He certainly started the season with a bang, didn't he? Came on the first defensive series and made himself known immediately.
- The stuff about splitting time between the backs wasn't just talk.
- That first quarter it felt like we were the Nebraska of old. Really a lot of energy, and a lot of excitement. We dominated WMU early - was that wonderful, or what?
- Defensive line played well, How many rushing yards did they finish with?
- Alex Henery, four field goals over 40 and we didn't even try one last season?
- Joe Ganz, that guy can manage the offense well. He looked smooth both throwing and running.
- We lost focus in the second half and the game felt like it was dragging on. I'm sure there will be plenty said by the coaches about that.
Overall, a rough game, but a nice win. It's the first of the Pelini era (win and game), so I shouldn't be so critical, it's obvious we have a lot of work to do. Today we're better off than Clemson And Virginia Tech and whomever else ended up at 0-1 today.
 
301 south carolina -10
302 vanderbilt

303 navy
304 ball state -3.5

305 eastern michigan
306 michigan state -20

307 akron
308 syracuse -6

309 miami ohio
310 michigan -10.5

311 northwestern -7
312 duke

313 georgia tech
314 boston college -5.5

315 west virginia -11
316 east carolina

317 minnesota
318 bowling green PK

319 so mississippi
320 auburn -17.5

321 tulane
322 alabama -20.5

323 san jose state
324 nebraska -19.5

325 utah state
326 oregon -27

327 cincinnati u
328 oklahoma -15.5

329 ohio
330 ohio state -28.5

331 marshall
332 wisconsin -20

333 miami florida
334 florida -13.5

335 texas tech -13
336 nevada

337 central michigan
338 georgia -23.5

339 oregon state
340 penn state -12.5

341 air force
342 wyoming PK

343 byu -5.5
344 washington u

345 san diego state
346 notre dame -17

347 texas am -4.5
348 new mexico

349 buffalo u
350 pittsburgh -9.5

351 houston u
352 oklahoma state -15

353 kent
354 iowa state -8.5

355 mississippi
356 wake forest -8.5

357 california -10.5
358 washington state

359 northern illinois
360 western michigan -6

361 south florida -15.5
362 central florida

363 connecticut -13.5
364 temple

365 louisiana tech
366 kansas -19.5

367 rice
368 memphis -3

369 unlv
370 utah -14

371 toledo
372 arizona u -21

373 stanford
374 arizona state -14.5

375 texas -23.5
376 utep

377 florida intl
378 iowa -24.5

379 ul - monroe
380 arkansas -10

381 tulsa -18.5
382 north texas

383 uab
384 florida atlantic -9.5

385 maryland -10
386 middle tenn st

387 troy
388 lsu -21



Some of these are probably way off their mark, 1st draft
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Sunday Hangover: ACC Football, Point, Laugh, Repeat as Needed

Posted Aug 31st 2008 6:17AM by Ray Holloman (author feed)
Filed under: General CFB Insanity
Miss any of Saturday's action? Get the storylines and implications every Sunday morning with a shot of humor, two of vermouth and a pot full of whatever coffee becomes 10 hours later.

Take a number, Hurricane Gustav, no one does disaster like the ACC.
How awful was the weekend for whatever small amount of credibility ACC football may have owned?
New Coke is laughing at the ACC while wearing parachute pants and drinking with Captain Hazelwood in Mike Dukakis' tank.
Memo to the league: Maybe you should've just spent your Labor Day weekend with your fuzzy slippers on while parked in front of the "Crossing Jordan" marathon. Football may, in fact, not be your thing.
If you weren't drunk, sadistic or too lazy to find the remote this weekend, you might've missed what was a nationally televised debacle so embarrassing Miss Teen South Carolina felt bad for the ACC.
 
Indiana 31, Western Kentucky 13.

IU didn't produce the overwhelming win that many might have wanted to see, but IU did show some positive signs in a 31-13 win over Western Kentucky, a team in the second year of its transition to Division I-A. Here's the box score.

The overall numbers look reasonably good. IU outgained WKU 450 to 282. IU averaged an impressive 6.3 yards per play to WKU's 4.1, and punted 4 times to WKU's 7. Each team had one turnover in close succession. Kellen Lewis threw an interception, but WKU gave it back with a fumble just a few plays later. WKU quarterback KJ Black completed 19 of 31 passes for 219 yards and a touchdown. IU's two QBs combined for a similar completion percentage but managed only 153 yards in the air, albeit with two touchdowns. The difference was on the ground. IU ran for 297 yards and averaged 7.2 yards per carry. WKU ran for 63 yards and only 2.0 yards per carry. Even setting aside Kellen Lewis's two long TD runs, for a combined 137 yards on two carries, IU still averaged a solid 4.1 yards per carry.

As to individual performances:

The good:
  • Kellen Lewis became IU's career touchdown passing leader with his first half pass to Ray Fisher. Lewis completed 63 percent of his passes and threw one interception.
  • IU used Ben Chappell in certain short yardage and goal line situations. Chappell was 1-3 for 9 yards. Most encouraging was one of the incompletions: when IU was pinned back on its ~2 yard line, Chappell was under pressure and threw the ball away. Yes, I'm still stuck on the Northwestern game from last year.
  • Andrew Means, IU's leading returning receiver, led the team with 6 catches for 63 yards.
  • Terrence Turner, who caught only 1 pass before a season ending injury in 2007, caught 4 passes for 38 yards.
  • Deja vu: 6-5 freshman Demarlo Belcher, from Fort Wayne, caught only one pass for 5 yards, but it was for a touchdown on the patented Hardy fade. If the oversized Belcher can provide just partial replacement of Hardy's production, it will be a huge help to this offense.
  • As promised, freshman tight end Max Dedmond did line up in the slot and caught a pass for five yards.
  • Bryan Payton ran for 57 yards and 6.3 per carry. Demetrius McCray ran for 38 yards on 9 carries.
  • Jammie Kirlew, moved to the right end to replace the suspended Greg Middleton, recorded two sacks.
The bad:
  • Marcus Thigpen ran for only 18 yards on 8 carries. Against Western Kentucky. I like Thigpen. He should be on the field as much as possible. But what is the coaching staff seeing that suggests that Thipgen is capable of being the starting tailback for what we hope will be an average to above average Big Ten team?
  • Our new starting corners didn't record an interception or a broken up pass, although Black's numbers were held a bit below his 2007 averages (based on completion percentage).
The ugly:
  • It's not often that a punter gets the hook, but after opening with a 57 yarder, redshirt freshman Chris Hagerup followed up with a 12 yarder, a 35 yarder, and a fumble. Joe Kleinsmith kicked the last punt of the game, a 50 yarder.
It was an opener, and while the pass defense and non-Kellen rushing games are concerns, IU has time. After next week's game against Murray State, IU has a bye week before playing Ball State and beginning the Big Ten season against Michigan State.
 
Week 2 Line Guesses

Several are likely to be well off -- that's always the case this early in the year.......

South Carolina -13 @ Vandy
Ball State -7 vs Navy

Michigan St. -21 vs EMU
Syracuse -7 vs Akorn
Michigan -16 vs MOH
Northwestern -6 @ Duke
BC -8 over Georgia Tech
W. Virginia -13 @ ECU
BGSU-2 vs Minnesota
Auburn -22 vs USM
Alabama -29 vs Tulane
Nebraska -26 vs SJSU
Oregon -31 vs Utah St.
Oklahoma -21 vs Cincinnati
Ohio St. -32 vs Ohio
Wisconsin -23 vs Marshall
Florida - 10 vs Miami
TTU -13 @ UNR
Georgia -24 vs CMU
Penn St. -15 vs Oregon St.
Wyoming -8 vs AFA
BYU -9 @ Washington
Notre Dame -22 vs SDSU
TAMU -5 @ New Mexico
Pittsburgh -13 vs Buffalo
Oklahoma St. -18 vs Houston
Iowa St. -6 vs Kent
WFU -8 vs Mississippi
California -12 @ Washington St.
WMU -5 vs NIU
USF -15 @ UCF
UConn -7 @ Temple
Kansas -28 vs LTU
Memphis -4 vs Rice
Utah -19 vs UNLV
Arizona St. -12 vs Stanferd
Texas -24 @ UTEP

Iowa -31 vs FIU
Arkansas -12 vs ULM
Tulsa -17 @ UNT
FAU -7 vs UAB
Maryland -11 @ MTSU
LSU -24 vs Troy
 
Minnesota as a PK ?

NI just shit the bed last night on that last possession. Possible let down for Minny after the emotional win?

Minny is going to need to put up 30-40 pts to beat anyone this year, IMO
 
I would think the A&M line is close to 2.
Hope that total is in the 40's after yesterdays performances by both teams.
If NM could catch the ball before running, they could have kept some drives alive vs. the froggies.
Not sure the Ag D will be able to pound an offense into submission like TCu did. And Goodson would have to hold on to the ball, if I even begin to think over on a low total.
 
Northwestern looked good yesterday, how good is Duke? Duke upset them last year when NW was 14pt fav...

Id bite on a td with NW
 
my lines are probably very off on some games, there are some teams i just refuse to bet and have no read on, ie. minnesota
 
I just merged my line guesses with yours, mine listed 2nd for comparison sakes. Not expecting mine to be all that close on some games.


South Carolina -13 -10 @ Vandy
Ball State -7 -3.5 vs Navy

Michigan St. -21 -20 vs EMU
Syracuse -7 -6 vs Akorn
Michigan -16 -10.5 vs MOH
Northwestern -6 -7 @ Duke
BC -8 -5.5 over Georgia Tech
W. Virginia -13 -11 @ ECU
BGSU-2 PK vs Minnesota
Auburn -22 -17.5 vs USM
Alabama -29 -20.5 vs Tulane
Nebraska -26 -19.5 vs SJSU
Oregon -31 -27 vs Utah St.
Oklahoma -21 15.5 vs Cincinnati
Ohio St. -32 -28.5 vs Ohio
Wisconsin -23 -20 vs Marshall
Florida - 10 -13.5 vs Miami
TTU -13 -13 @ UNR
Georgia -24 -23.5 vs CMU
Penn St. -15 12.5 vs Oregon St.
Wyoming -8 PK vs AFA
BYU -9 -5.5 @ Washington
Notre Dame -22 -17 vs SDSU
TAMU -5 -4.5 @ New Mexico
Pittsburgh -13 -9.5 vs Buffalo
Oklahoma St. -18 -15 vs Houston
Iowa St. -6 -8.5 vs Kent
WFU -8 -8.5 vs Mississippi
California -12 -10.5 @ Washington St.
WMU -5 -6 vs NIU
USF -15 -15.5@ UCF
UConn -7 -13.5 @ Temple
Kansas -28 19.5 vs LTU
Memphis -4 -3 vs Rice
Utah -19 -14 vs UNLV
Arizona St. -12 -14.5vs Stanferd
Texas -24 -23.5 @ UTEP

Iowa -31 -24.5 vs FIU
Arkansas -12 -10 vs ULM
Tulsa -17 -18.5 @ UNT
FAU -7 -9.5 vs UAB
Maryland -11 -10 @ MTSU
LSU -24 -21 vs Troy


Some of mine are wayyyyy off but they are based off of preseason #'s, not adjusted for what has happened in WK1
 
I just now noticed the "Sunday Morning Coffee" sticky thread. Forgive me if this is redundant. Rookie mistake.

E.T.G. --

There's always going to be a lot of discrepancy this early in the year. Actually your lines are closer to mine than mine are to Garfather's. Looks like I failed to discount Wyoming as much as either of you, and I have Ball St. and Nebraska too high, and Florida too low.
 
Matador said:
I just now noticed the "Sunday Morning Coffee" sticky thread. Forgive me if this is redundant. Rookie mistake.

E.T.G. --

There's always going to be a lot of discrepancy this early in the year. Actually your lines are closer to mine than mine are to Garfather's. Looks like I failed to discount Wyoming as much as either of you, and I have Ball St. and Nebraska too high, and Florida too low.
Click to expand...

No problem, Matador. Good to see you here.
 
It goes, matador-etg-garfather

South Carolina -13 -10 -10@ Vandy
Ball State -7 -3.5 -2 vs Navy

Michigan St. -21 -20 -25 vs EMU
Syracuse -7 -6 vs Akorn
Michigan -16 -10.5 vs MOH
Northwestern -6 -7 -6@ Duke
BC -8 -5.5 -5 over Georgia Tech
W. Virginia -13 -11 -11@ ECU
BGSU-2 PK PKvs Minnesota
Auburn -22 -17.5 -23.5 vs USM
Alabama -29 -20.5 -30vs Tulane
Nebraska -26 -19.5 -22vs SJSU
Oregon -31 -27 -32 vs Utah St.
Oklahoma -21 15.5 -24.5 vs Cincinnati
Ohio St. -32 -28.5 -28 vs Ohio
Wisconsin -23 -20 -24 vs Marshall
Florida - 10 -13.5 -17.5 vs Miami
TTU -13 -13 -18 @ UNR
Georgia -24 -23.5 -29vs CMU
Penn St. -15 12.5 -14.5 vs Oregon St.
Wyoming -8 PK -3 vs AFA
BYU -9 -5.5 -9.5 @ Washington
Notre Dame -22 -17 -23 vs SDSU
TAMU -5 -4.5 -3 @ New Mexico
Pittsburgh -13 -9.5 -15 vs Buffalo
Oklahoma St. -18 -15 -16.5 vs Houston
Iowa St. -6 -8.5 vs Kent
WFU -8 -8.5 -5.5 vs Mississippi
California -12 -10.5 -10 @ Washington St.
WMU -5 -6 vs NIU
USF -15 -15.5 -21.5@ UCF
UConn -7 -13.5 -7 @ Temple
Kansas -28 19.5 -22vs LTU
Memphis -4 -3 -1 vs Rice
Utah -19 -14 -16.5 vs UNLV
Arizona St. -12 -14.5 vs Stanferd
Texas -24 -23.5 -18.5 @ UTEP

Iowa -31 -24.5 -28 vs FIU
Arkansas -12 -10 vs ULM
Tulsa -17 -18.5 -17.5 @ UNT
FAU -7 -9.5 -12.5 vs UAB
Maryland -11 -10 -14 @ MTSU
LSU -24 -21 -35vs Troy


I think i missed a few, the bold and non-bold doesn't mean shit, just format issue
 
RJ Esq said:
A few observations about the Texas game:

--Young secondary is going to get a quick learning curve.

--Mack burned more red-shirts in this game and started more true freshmen in this game than I have seen over the last 4 or 5 years, combined. Looks like Mack is staying true to his word of playing the best regardless of experience and not wasting the talent as they are even leaving Texas early now.

--Blaine Irby. TE. If he holds up and plays like Game 1, you're looking at David Thomas v.2. Dude was making great catches and was Colt's safety valve.

--Colt: Set a Texas record with 16 straight completions and did not throw any interceptions. Couple of close calls but did not force the ball like he did last year.

--Couple of possible injuries we have to look out for: G Tanner and RB Ogbayanna.

--RB Cody Johnson looks just awesome. How is this guy sitting behind the top 3 backs? Dude is a VERY physical runner.

--The team has the aggression back. Even when up by 20-30 they want to score more and they don't want to allow junk. Love it.

--Another TOP note that I almost forgot: It looks like GD and Major and Mack are going to allow the offense to become creative. Truly, it had become stale and everyone could call out the plays before they happened.

--Called the fake FG last night and impressed the bar. Routine.

--Defensive work: Coach Boom will need to shore up the pass D and getting to the QB. No sacks last night but they did put pressure on them. Boom wants sacks and QB pressure more than anything.
Click to expand...

Good stuff:shake:
 
Quick randm thoughts in no particular order:

ACC blows balls, hey Miami beat up ZCharleston Southern though:)

SEC may be deeper this year than they ever have been.

Healthy Beanie or not, USC wins that game by AT LEAST 10 points...sorry all of you OSU homers but that one may get ugly.

Big 12 may actually be very good this year.
 
Matador said:
I just now noticed the "Sunday Morning Coffee" sticky thread. Forgive me if this is redundant. Rookie mistake.

E.T.G. --

There's always going to be a lot of discrepancy this early in the year. Actually your lines are closer to mine than mine are to Garfather's. Looks like I failed to discount Wyoming as much as either of you, and I have Ball St. and Nebraska too high, and Florida too low.
Click to expand...


I hope that the books discount Wyoming like Garfather and ETG did. I'll certainly be on anything below a TD.
 
Mine are in carolinablue of course.



South Carolina -13 -10 -10.5@ Vandy
Ball State -7 -3.5 -4vs Navy

Michigan St. -21 -20 -21.5 vs EMU
Syracuse -7 -6 -3.5 vs Akorn
Michigan -16 -10.5 -12.5 vs MOH
Northwestern -6 -7 -7.5 @ Duke
BC -8 -5.5 -6.5 over Georgia Tech
W. Virginia -13 -11 -8.5 @ ECU
BGSU-2 PK -1 vs Minnesota
Auburn -22 -17.5 -18.5 vs USM
Alabama -29 -20.5 -27 vs Tulane
Nebraska -26 -19.5 -27 vs SJSU
Oregon -31 -27 -28 vs Utah St.
Oklahoma -21 15.5 -21.5 vs Cincinnati
Ohio St. -32 -28.5 -30 vs Ohio
Wisconsin -23 -20 -21.5 vs Marshall
Florida - 10 -13.5 -17 vs Miami
TTU -13 -13 -11.5 @ UNR
Georgia -24 -23.5 -27 vs CMU
Penn St. -15 12.5 -15.5 vs Oregon St.
Wyoming -8 PK -3 vs AFA
BYU -9 -5.5 -8 @ Washington
Notre Dame -22 -17 -18.5 vs SDSU
TAMU -5 -4.5 -3 @ New Mexico
Pittsburgh -13 -9.5 -8.5 vs Buffalo
Oklahoma St. -18 -15 -16.5 vs Houston
Iowa St. -6 -8.5 -8.5 vs Kent
WFU -8 -8.5 -8.5 vs Mississippi
California -12 -10.5 -15.5 @ Washington St.
WMU -5 -6 -4 vs NIU
USF -15 -15.5 -17.5 @ UCF
UConn -7 -13.5 -6.5 @ Temple
Kansas -28 19.5 -21.5 vs LTU
Memphis -4 -3 +2.5 vs Rice
Utah -19 -14 -12.5 vs UNLV
Arizona St. -12 -14.5 -16.5 vs Stanferd
Texas -24 -23.5 -28 @ UTEP

Iowa -31 -24.5 -28 vs FIU
Arkansas -12 -10 -17.5 vs ULM
Tulsa -17 -18.5 -24.5 @ UNT
FAU -7 -9.5 -6 vs UAB
Maryland -11 -10 -7.5 @ MTSU
LSU -24 -21 -25.5 vs Troy
 
now reads matador-etg-garfather-carolinablue


South Carolina -13 -10 -10 -10.5@ Vandy
Ball State -7 -3.5 -2 -4 vs Navy

Michigan St. -21 -20 -25 -21.5vs EMU
Syracuse -7 -6 -3.5 vs Akorn
Michigan -16 -10.5 -12.5 vs MOH
Northwestern -6 -7 -6 -7.5 @ Duke
BC -8 -5.5 -5 -6.5 over Georgia Tech
W. Virginia -13 -11 -11 -8.5 @ ECU
BGSU-2 PK PK -1 vs Minnesota
Auburn -22 -17.5 -23.5 -18.5 vs USM
Alabama -29 -20.5 -30 -27 vs Tulane
Nebraska -26 -19.5 -22 -27 vs SJSU
Oregon -31 -27 -32 -28 vs Utah St.
Oklahoma -21 15.5 -24.5 -21.5 vs Cincinnati
Ohio St. -32 -28.5 -28 -30 vs Ohio
Wisconsin -23 -20 -24 -21.5 vs Marshall
Florida - 10 -13.5 -17.5 -17 vs Miami
TTU -13 -13 -18 -11.5 @ UNR
Georgia -24 -23.5 -29 -27 vs CMU
Penn St. -15 12.5 -14.5 -15.5 vs Oregon St.
Wyoming -8 PK -3 -3 vs AFA
BYU -9 -5.5 -9.5 -8 @ Washington
Notre Dame -22 -17 -23 -18.5 vs SDSU
TAMU -5 -4.5 -3 -3 @ New Mexico
Pittsburgh -13 -9.5 -15 -8.5 vs Buffalo
Oklahoma St. -18 -15 -16.5 -16.5 vs Houston
Iowa St. -6 -8.5 -8.5 vs Kent
WFU -8 -8.5 -5.5 -8.5 vs Mississippi
California -12 -10.5 -10 -15.5 @ Washington St.
WMU -5 -6 -4 vs NIU
USF -15 -15.5 -21.5 -17.5 @ UCF
UConn -7 -13.5 -7 -6.5 @ Temple
Kansas -28 19.5 -22 -21.5 vs LTU
Memphis -4 -3 -1 +2.5 vs Rice
Utah -19 -14 -16.5 -12.5 vs UNLV
Arizona St. -12 -14.5 -16.5 vs Stanferd
Texas -24 -23.5 -18.5 -28 @ UTEP

Iowa -31 -24.5 -28 vs FIU
Arkansas -12 -10 vs ULM
Tulsa -17 -18.5 -17.5 @ UNT
FAU -7 -9.5 -12.5 vs UAB
Maryland -11 -10 -14 @ MTSU
LSU -24 -21 -35vs Troy
 
South Carolina -11 @ Vandy
Ball State -7 vs Navy

Michigan St. -23 vs EMU
Syracuse -7 vs Akorn
Michigan -13 vs MOH
Northwestern -6.5 @ Duke
BC -6 over Georgia Tech
W. Virginia -11.5 @ ECU
BGSU -3 vs Minnesota
Auburn -21.5 vs USM
Alabama -27 vs Tulane
Nebraska -27 vs SJSU
Oregon -29.5 vs Utah St.
Oklahoma -18.5 vs Cincinnati
Ohio St. -28 vs Ohio
Wisconsin -19 vs Marshall
Florida -16 vs Miami
TTU -11 @ UNR
Georgia -25 vs CMU
Penn St. -14.5 vs Oregon St.
Wyoming -6 vs AFA
BYU -8 @ Washington
Notre Dame -19.5 vs SDSU
TAMU -3 @ New Mexico
Pittsburgh -15 vs Buffalo
Oklahoma St. -16.5 vs Houston
Iowa St. -7 vs Kent
WFU -8 vs Mississippi
California -14.5 @ Washington St.
WMU -7.5 vs NIU
USF -17 @ UCF
UConn -10.5 @ Temple
Kansas -29 vs LTU
Memphis -5.5 vs Rice
Utah -17.5 vs UNLV
Arizona St. -14 vs Stanferd
Texas -22 @ UTEP

Iowa -26.5 vs FIU
Arkansas -11 vs ULM
Tulsa -21 @ UNT
FAU -10 vs UAB
Maryland -9 @ MTSU
LSU -25 vs Troy
 
I made a few but forgot to type them in. Stupid.

Here we go.

Syracuse -6.5
Iowa State -7
Arkansas -7.5
Arizona State -18
WMU -4.5
 
if it wasn't for barwis michigan wouldnt have been in the game jump..Utah was worn the fuck out at the end.
 
general UM thoughts..

-Knew I should have taken the over...oh well, hindisight is 20/20

-Michigan will win some games you won't expect them to, and lose games you won't expect them to lose..

-did not expect defense to be so conservative and rarely blitz in first half, and people who think Utah just played conservative in 2nd half are just fooling themselves..UM D was dominant in 2nd half.

-Utah's kicker/punter is retarded. They tackle very very well, and have a great qb...they could go undefeated. Very good team.

-People that think this was an upset..I laugh my ass off to them.

-UM's oline needs work..mainly run blocking..pass protection was decent. Threet is much better than Sheridan although it's not saying much.

-Big House was actually loud. I was on the 50 and and it was shaking in the fourth.

-Tate Forcier was there and will be committing shortly hopefully.


IF you have a future bet at your book...Take Alabama...seriously.
 
Early potential fav leans, pending the lines of course (just using the line predictions above as a rough guide right now)...

Northwestern
Nebraska
Oregon
Wisky
Iowa State
Syracuse
WMU
Kansas
Texas
Iowa
Tulsa
FAU
Utah
Cal
 
Actually like week 2 as it allows me to follow my instincts more, as week 1 almost gives me too much time to outthink myself and add plays I never would have added had I not been given months to think about em haha.

Hoping the greek releases their lines sometime around 7 to 8pm tonight, as I should have all my week 2 plays locked in within 10 mins of the lines opening at the greek, since my plays beginning in week 2 are simply based on amount deviation vs my projected lines for the most part.
 
HUNTDOG said:
if it wasn't for barwis michigan wouldnt have been in the game jump..Utah was worn the fuck out at the end.
Click to expand...

oh jeebus...cmon dude, not more of this....Utah got extremely conservative to sit on a lead and the two turnovers allowed them to stay in the game..

It wasn't Barwis or Bill Brasky or Chuck Norris..
 
OK these maybe optomosiic but for early lines I am looking for huge disparity or a really good number to hammer without question so here are key numbers I will be looking for....

SC-7
Ball St-3
MSU-20
UM-13
Cuse-3
GT+7.5
ECU+10
Minn+3
Bama-24
Neb-27
Ore-27
OU-24
Wisky-21
CMU+24
PSU-14
ND-21
TAMU-7
Buffalo+14
ISU-6
Cal-10
USF-14
UCONN-6
LT+24
Mem-3
Utah-14
ASU-14
Texas-24
ULM+14
Tulsa-17
MTSU+14
LSU-24

Again if I see these or better I will likely immediately hit these unless we can get more discussion going on why I should or should NOT hit these!
 
JumpOnBoard said:
oh jeebus...cmon dude, not more of this....Utah got extremely conservative to sit on a lead and the two turnovers allowed them to stay in the game..

It wasn't Barwis or Bill Brasky or Chuck Norris..
Click to expand...


bro, Utah was not getting conservative...I guess we will just have to agree to disagree.
 
jpicks..sakoda was devastating...his punts where above the new structures being put in on the other side of the field....Utah is a great team, very fundamentally sound and sakoda is the icing on the cake.
 
now reads matador-etg-garfather-carolinablue-RJ (in Dark Blue)


South Carolina -13 -10 -10 -10.5 -6 @ Vandy
Ball State -7 -3.5 -2 -4 -3 vs Navy

Michigan St. -21 -20 -25 -21.5 -21vs EMU
Syracuse -7 -6 -3.5 -5 vs Akorn
Michigan -16 -10.5 -12.5 -17 vs MOH
Northwestern -6 -7 -6 -7.5 -4 @ Duke
BC -8 -5.5 -5 -6.5 -9 over Georgia Tech
W. Virginia -13 -11 -11 -8.5 -10 @ ECU
BGSU-2 PK PK -1 -4 vs Minnesota
Auburn -22 -17.5 -23.5 -18.5 -23 vs USM
Alabama -29 -20.5 -30 -27 -25 vs Tulane
Nebraska -26 -19.5 -22 -27 -15 vs SJSU
Oregon -31 -27 -32 -28 -33 vs Utah St.
Oklahoma -21 15.5 -24.5 -21.5 -27 vs Cincinnati
Ohio St. -32 -28.5 -28 -30 -29 vs Ohio
Wisconsin -23 -20 -24 -21.5 -19 vs Marshall
Florida - 10 -13.5 -17.5 -17 -22 vs Miami
TTU -13 -13 -18 -11.5 -8 @ UNR
Georgia -24 -23.5 -29 -27 -25 vs CMU
Penn St. -15 12.5 -14.5 -15.5 -11 vs Oregon St.
Wyoming -8 PK -3 -3 +1 vs AFA
BYU -9 -5.5 -9.5 -8 -4 @ Washington
Notre Dame -22 -17 -23 -18.5 -17 vs SDSU
TAMU -5 -4.5 -3 -3 -7 @ New Mexico
Pittsburgh -13 -9.5 -15 -8.5 -12 vs Buffalo
Oklahoma St. -18 -15 -16.5 -16.5 -16 vs Houston
Iowa St. -6 -8.5 -8.5 -18 vs Kent
WFU -8 -8.5 -5.5 -8.5 -7 vs Mississippi
California -12 -10.5 -10 -15.5 -11 @ Washington St.
WMU -5 -6 -4 -5 vs NIU
USF -15 -15.5 -21.5 -17.5 -13 @ UCF
UConn -7 -13.5 -7 -6.5 -9 @ Temple
Kansas -28 19.5 -22 -21.5 -17 vs LTU
Memphis -4 -3 -1 +2.5 pk vs Rice
Utah -19 -14 -16.5 -12.5 -22 vs UNLV
Arizona -19 vs. Toledo
Arizona St. -12 -14.5 -16.5 -15 vs Stanferd
Texas -24 -23.5 -18.5 -28 -25 @ UTEP
Iowa -31 -24.5 -28 -26 vs FIU
Arkansas -12 -10 -13 vs ULM
Tulsa -17 -18.5 -17.5 -17 @ UNT
FAU -7 -9.5 -12.5 -11 vs UAB
Maryland -11 -10 -14 -16 @ MTSU
LSU -24 -21 -35 -21 vs Troy
 
Notes from Wk 1

from underdogsofwar.com by TheGarfather
This will be the area for consolidating thoughts and observations from the first weekend of action. This is also a great place for mentioning statistical anomalies that made results look deceiving. Heroic performances that changed the outcome of games can go here as well.
Syracuse didn’t look particularly bad, but they didn’t look particularly good either. They played well in the first half and it looks like the ground game could be vastly improved from where it was a year ago. 6.4 ypc allowed isn’t going to work. Defense was tough for a while, but just wore out, particularly in the second half. Robinson wasn’t any better than last year. No receiving threats. Pick 6 made the margin larger than it really deserved to be. Sutton may have a nice senior year.
VT was embarrassing, across the board. The veteran OL played like frosh. All things considered I thought Kenny Lewis did alright. Glennon is no better now than last season and they have no deep targets. The Hokies secondary really missed Harris I thought. There were more weird special teams happenings than you could shake a stick at. Missed XPs, nice returns, punts blocked, defensive PAT convesion, all sorts of weirdness. Neither team could run the ball, or perhaps more accurately stated, each team’s DL was solid. PP was awesome going 19/23 with a score and no picks. His game management really was the difference as ECU outgained them by 130 yards and 7 first downs.
Penn State really ought to KILL the Beavers next week.
Pitt ougained BG by 140 yards, had 12 for more first downs, and played better generally, but as so often happens the turnovers tell the tale of the game and the Panthers were -3. Just an awful start for Wannstedt (they really needed this one) who clearly looks to be in the waning months of his tenure in Pittsburgh. Maybe if he gets fired mid-season they will let Phil Bennett take over. LMAO!! Pitt’s OL has clearly taken a step back.
Wisconsin’s ground game completely determined this game. Akron really didn’t play all that badly on offense, but they had to throw the whole time because they were behind which gave them no balance, and their defense wore down because the Badgers had it for 12 minutes longer. Brutal backdoor cover for Wisconsin backers as they fumbled it with a couple minutes left in their own end. Possible Akron angle at Syracuse?
WVU wasn’t crisp against Villanova. They were outgained, out FDed, out TOPed by 15 minutes and attempted 12 more passes than rushes. When they wanted to run they were successful so maybe Bill Stewart and Co intentionally took this opportunity to get White some passing experience for later in the year?
 
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