sportsnut , i understand what you are saying ..... runs scored might be the most effected by the actual matchups a umpire gets assigned. But his over/under results do matter.
Whether the umpire was calling a game between peavy and webb or calling a game between chen ho park and joel piniero shouldnt make a difference in terms of his over/under numbers. That should already be reflected in the price. One game is set at 10 and the other at 6.5. Assuming all the prices are basically "fair" , the quality of the starters doesn't really matter.
Now it will effect strike percentage as you stated earlier.
I agree that it is just a part of the bigger puzzle but maybe a larger part than you give it credit for.
To each his own , and you are good at capping baseball without taking much consideration in umpiring. I think there are angles with umps though. There is a chance you could be missing out on extra value.
Why though VK? It's not an easy discussion to have over a message forum .
Think about it logically .
What do low totals suggest ? Besides quality SP?
Dont they suggest lower scoring games . You see peavy vs Webb and we think runs are at a premium . So if the expectation is for a lower scoring game then what does the actual result have to do with it ? Is there any difference if the total is 7 runs and the game scores 6 or 8 runs in what effect the ump had on the game ? Maybe I dont explain it right but the underlying message the total gives doesnt seem to be clear to everyone. Peavy v Webb is supposed to go under if they are in good form , isnt it ? Its supposed to be low scoring regardless of what the posted total is .
I understand paying attention to O-U records but I am saying thaey dont portay a clear example . Sure I am willing to gamble on an Under if a guy has an 11-3 record for UNDERS to date if the situation looks possible. Still I want to know why the UNDER run is coming from. I do pay attention to guys who have huge Home biases as I have uncovered guys who are sometimes 45-18 for home chalk over a span . I like shit that behind me .
I dont think I understand your point about the SP matchups. It does mean alot . Guys with 10 totals are medicore pitchers . Medicore pitchers throw less strikes and may actually have to rely on an umpire more then a quality pitcher does . They allow more hits and more runs . Thats what makes them medicore . Thats my point Jake Peavy when he is going good doesnt give a fuck who is umping , it simply doesnt matter . While Jaime Moyer does because he is at the mercy of the ump on most days . Which is why Moyer will never have a 6. total. So 6.5 totals suggest low scoring games so if an UMP has low totals and a .500 O/U record then he has hardly any effect . Even if he was 9-0 OVER I would be cautious if his runs per game avg 7.1 runs and his avg total was 6.5 . However if he was 6-3 over and avg 8.2 runs with that 6.5 avg I would weigh him heavily as having an effect . WHich again how can you weigh an o/U record without knowing the totals for an ump and his SP ?
So I dont agree the total reflects the SP matchup . In the sense you are saying in that it stops there . Higher totals simple suggest higher probabilities of runs being scored and vice versa . Whats more shocking Peavy vs Webb being 1-0 or Giese vs Pelfrey ?
I am not saying there arent angles to use . Hell I use days of the week angles for side plays . I am saying they all play roles . Rarely does anyone explain what role the home plate ump in helping there posted play achieve its goal . I see so many obvious plays made and people backing it due to the ump and then suggesting the ump played a role . I took the over @ SD today because you had 2 name SP who had battled injuries and probably less then 100% of there peak performance . Still couldnt tell you who the ump was and if it was a guy who had an over bias I think its ridiculous to allow him any credit when he had 1 SP at 75% and another at maybe 85%.
I respect BC and all his points . My only point was Rob Drake from what I see tends to make SP better rather then worse . Which is what I want for an UNDER play . Which is what every gambler should want from ump .....
I dont want waste everyone's time here arguing something that I may not be clear on. I still think they are alot variables when making plays and the lowest factor is the umpire .
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