Sunday MLB discussion

Los Mets -136 (BOL)

This line feels short. Should be north of -150. Red birds have scored 5 runs in 3 games thus far this series. Sonny L2 vs anemic offense teams. Possibly anti sweep money
 
Los Mets -136 (BOL)

This line feels short. Should be north of -150. Red birds have scored 5 runs in 3 games thus far this series. Sonny L2 vs anemic offense teams. Possibly anti sweep money

I have to look at Holmes more, not sure how I feel about him as a starter. I can’t see playing cards tho I been saying from the jump that offense they started w was fugazi, the lineup isn’t all that good to even be a top 10 run producing team imo. Holmes hasn’t exactly been facing the better offenses in the league tho, Tough cap for me, I think both pitchers will most likely be good thru 5 innings but Holmes walks worry me. Gray has fantastic history vs Mets and at this park.
 
Gonna keep rocking the overs in Baltimore. Gunner started smashing like we knew he would and that just makes the entrie lineup more dangerous. I assume this a bit a opener for reds, starting the lefty as o’s stack the top of k lineup w them, if they let suter go more innings great I don’t think he can get thru this lineup 2x, not sure he can get thru the bottom half honestly. Morton hasn’t been himself, he never been a quick starter and the older you get the longer it prob takes. No chance I see either pitcher working more than 5 and the pens been used quite a bit this series,

Cincy/o’s ov 9
 
Eaton Lucas ov 4.5 k’s +112

Jays ml

This be stronger in Seattle but m’s are fanning over 32% the time vs lhp and we get plus money to get 5? Yes please.

I always been a Castillo fan but I think he starting to lose a bit, I don’t expect him to get much run support and I think we might be getting the better team w plus money.
 
I have to look at Holmes more, not sure how I feel about him as a starter. I can’t see playing cards tho I been saying from the jump that offense they started w was fugazi, the lineup isn’t all that good to even be a top 10 run producing team imo. Holmes hasn’t exactly been facing the better offenses in the league tho, Tough cap for me, I think both pitchers will most likely be good thru 5 innings but Holmes walks worry me. Gray has fantastic history vs Mets and at this park.

Feel like he doesn’t pitch to contact very well but that’s just off the dome from what I’ve seen and recall with his time as a Yankee. You’d think he’d get tons of ground balls. Maybe he does. Against Marlins a couple weeks back he K’d a ton of guys to avoid trouble.
 
Feel like he doesn’t pitch to contact very well but that’s just off the dome from what I’ve seen and recall with his time as a Yankee. You’d think he’d get tons of ground balls. Maybe he does. Against Marlins a couple weeks back he K’d a ton of guys to avoid trouble.

Even tho I totally expect cards offense to continue trending more to around 20th in the league they not a high k team so walks could def get him into trouble. I don’t feel confident laying it with him against Sonny gray who can blank anyone.
 
Springs ov 4.5 k’s -153

Little steep but if ya havnt noticed im a buyer on this dude, he was filthy before the TJ and I think he will get tougher as the feel for his change up comes back. Milw another team that swings and misses a lot vs lhp.

I really Like the price on A’s ml as well, better starter, I think A’s lineup is more dangerous than brewers, A’s have some filth in the pen. Milw laying -150s is crazy imo.
 
Kc/dst 1st inn h,r,e un 2.5 -152

I like to be lower on juice w these but I like the way wacha change matches up w the lefties at top tigers lineup. Of course kc not hitting so last guy they want to see is Skubal
 
So this is the 1st time I’m playing one of these overs and you will probably laugh when you see the teams I’m doing it with but I really feel the numbers make sense, I could end up looking dumb but luckily that never stops me!!

Cle/pit 1st inning ov 2.5 h,r,e +100

I did lot of this last night and didn’t take great notes. Always been a fan of Keller but I don’t think the genius pirates staff ever taught him the best way to pitch to his skill set (shocking I know), I love the way the top 4 in cle lineup match up against him, he has a history of slow starts then clamping down in later innings. I have little doubt cle could cash this themselves but it not we have a backup plan in cle starter Allen who never been a guy I was big on, he walks to many as he nibbles around the k zone not trusting his ok stuff, walks don’t help us here in cashing but walks turn into doubles these days then a base hit and we have a run plus hit. Allen another very slow starter who has a 6+ era in 1st then everything below 4 till the 5th. So think we have 2 pitchers who at their worst early, 2 lineups I think can get some hits, they might not get a run home but even if they don’t 3 hits not out the question imo.
 
anyone think Suter is good enough to come in and take out o’s lefty hitters in 1st? You think they plan on letting him pitch 2nd inning vs more the righties? I don’t buy for a 2nd he can get thru this lineup 2x. What you think the play is here for pirates @Marsski how they finna use him??

I feel pretty confident reds can get Morton out the game before 6th and score at least 3 minimum, So def not just bout fading reds here.
 
Locus ov 15.5 outs +130

Locus to win +250

Just 1x total between the 2 but I do feel like there could be real value here. Maybe Seattle proves me wrong and hits a lefty, they def have a better chance here than at home. I dunno was just something bout locus stuff that madd me think he could go 5+, maybe 6 and hold these guys to 2 runs, I could be wrong 28 pretty old to just be breaking in but it been known to happen and unlike past years I feel like jays have a way better mojo where things gonna work out for them.

Castillo always been my dude, I wanted cards to go after him for years, that said I think he has started to lose a bit. He can still go out and dominate anyone but he doesn’t do it as consistently, jays hsvng crushed him but he hasn’t faired great in this part and while I think he showing some decline I think the jays bats are showing progress. I’m either really stoned or really like this, actually both I think!!
 
I really have no idea on cards/muts, I feel like I can make cases if plays out lot of different ways. I still have no clue what we will get from Holmes as a starter, he has potential but let’s not pretend he king!! Sonny is damn near a Ace, think maybe mentally he just short the top dogs, or maybe it stuff but he was a good buy, I have no question he can navigate the bottom half mets lineup. He can work around a few the top guys and see if they swing at his pitch, maybe the do maybe they don’t, if they Don’t then I think he will struggle to go 6 innjngs but he still be pretty good. After he leaves Mets could unfold a big number. I think I’m gonna watch live and see if I ever feel like a spot to get in with some good numbers.
 
Well that was interesting. Felt like a complete moron watching jays lefty not getting an out, but then he strikes out the side, loads them again in 2nd and gets 2 more k ‘s to cash k prop!!!

Jays had Castillo and let him off the hook in the 1st. I don’t think this Lucas kid can pitch 5 innings for the W but jays could still win this game.
 
That’s shitty I thought it was 3-0 and strikes cashed! Still shows 5 k’s so musta been a passed ball on the strikeout?
 
Jays live .+450., would love to know how the fuck that 2nd inning didn’t end 3-0? So annoyed. 3 runs wasn’t worrying me at all.
 
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