Sunday , Feb. 4th @ 6:20

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Super Bowl XLI : Colts versus Bears

Peyton Manning finally exercised his Patriot demons. Well sorta of. Manning had already defeated NE the past 2 PrimeTime meetings @ Foxboro. Now he defeated them in a playoff game but it was on his Turf so to speak. The Bears well lets page Denny Green on that one. They are what we thought they were. What exactly was that in response to ? Was it all the talk about the GREAT Chicago Bears who could go undefeated and were already earmarked for the SuperBowl in like week 7. I believe thats what he was referring to. It also was in refernce to the fact as good as CHI was it had flaws. You could rattle the quaterback and they did. However there defense and Devin Hester is everything was SUPPOSED to be . Fast foward to today the Bears lost 2 key members of the defense. Which takes it down only a notch IMO. Their frontline(front 7 )is still as good as it gets. The run defense has lost a stuffer and the secondary lost its best gamechanging playmaker in Mike Brown.

Well it strikes me as funny that the same team in week 7 everyone said was SuperBowl bound suddenly doesnt have a chance to win it. It strikes me as funny that most people didnt think Indy could win in Baltimore yet have already crowned Indy the CHAMPS. One twist to this game in Miami is it puts both teams out of there element. We saw how the Bears thrive in the cold Chicago weather. We have the Colts who are built for turf with its smaller defense playing on grass. Neither team will have an advantage here and Indy is probably at more of a disadvantage.

I have read were Indy is praised for its play against the NFC going 9-1 in meaningful regular season games. Then I look and see it was verus the NFC North in 2004 , the Rams and Niners in 05 (which if you remember that MNF STL game the Rams took it to them early but Bulger hurt and was replaced mid 2nd quarter by Martin. Bulger threw a pick got hurt on the attempted tackle and STL fell to pieces in the 2nd H ), this year they defeated NYG in the opener (close win) and lost @ Dallas. The Skins and Eagles at home were not challenges. Back in those 4 games only Minny was good and they won by 3 at home. So I dont buy into Peyton Manning owning the NFC. When they faced Chi in 2004 that was a different Chi team in every way.

I am sure we all watched the Indy / NE matchup . It seemed like everything that could go wrong did for Indy early. They force a fumble on the goal line after a huge 4th down run and the Pats OL recover in the end zone. Now someone out there is thinking but hey Indy got that break returned later in the game. They did but the context was much different. Just think of the huge momentum shift for Indy if they get a turnover there it changes the whole complex of the 1st Half. The more NE scored the more rattled Peyton Manning looked. Which was due to his OL and Addai's poor blocking as well. They Int to Samuel returned for a score was just a forced pass. So anyway the Pats got all the breaks early and it looked like NE was in Indys head. Really the comeback is more about what NE didnt do then what Indy did . The penalty that tookaway the 1st down was the play that started the Colts rally. Until then they still couldnt stop NEs offense. Then it reversed and Indy got all the breaks. Brady not seeing Caldwell and his bulging eyes wide open on the sideline which he dropped, the no call INTEFERENCE on a NE WR in the end zone , the very favorable roughing the passer contact to the head call....

Anyway the point is really nothing stood out in that game . Other then momentum shifts. We saw that Devin Hester could have a huge day. Indy already resorted to putting starters on Special teams and Hobbs had a day. He returned 6 kicks for 220 yards. Now you face possibly the best in Devin Hester. Another thing we saw was Indys ability to NOT stop an offense on fourth and short. We did learn that Lovie loves to go for it 4th and 1. We learned Peyton Manning could be rattled and he is still having communication issues with Harrison and INTs are still happeneing. Add to that Addai's struggles in pass blocking could keep him on the bench. We know that Chi has one of the best , if not thee best front in the NFL. We heard about the elements in Chi and the Florida QB outplayed the Purdue QB( to a degree). I think we saw in Balt that on the road the Indy run defense still has some question marks.They missed some tackles vs NE and Sanders looked really beatup by the end of the game. Will 2 weeks be enough ? Think about it he couldnt play hardly all season so probably not.

Everyone was praising the Saints offense putting them in Indys category and well what happened? Does anyone else find it odd that the team with more wins and the one who was 7-1 on the road compared to 4-4 is the TD underdog? The only game Chi lost away was @ NE and that was a tough game. Generally speaking I think CHI travels better then Indy. The Colts had some nice wins and some tough losses as I have explained. What I am talking about what seperates these teams...not very much.

These teams I believe had 5 similiar situation opponents...@ NE , @NYG , @NYJ , vs Miami and vs Buffalo. Now Buffalo gave Indy a game when the Bills were playing better ball but were smoked in Chicago. The Phins ended the Bears undefeated season. I have to think CHI made the mistake of taking them to lightily. Chi self destructed versus a very good Miami defense. WhenIndygot them it was late in the year but Miami was starting Cleo Lemon and hung with them all game. The road games Chi won convincingly against the Giants , shutout the Jets and lost by 4 in NE(catching 3.5). The Colts won by 7 in NE , 5 in NYG and 3 in NYJ. To me if this was a regular season neutral field game at the highest I would set Indy as -2.5 pt favs with the 2 injuries on defense for Chi. My range would be -1.5 to -2.5 and would guess -2. With the circumstances and hype maybe I could see Indy -4 since they are a veteran team. The TD line IMO presents a ton of value for a team who worst case is only slightily worse.

The Bears outside of Grossmans play which statistically can be ugly , doesnt seem to be awful decision making or mistakes. Manning has made more mitsakes then him with throws this playoff season. The key is the Bears defense playing like it has since early 3rd quarter vs Seattle and carried over versus NO. If Chi is dictating this game with its defense I think they can win SU. Indy has to many flaws that play into Chi strengths. Personally I enjoyed the effort Cedric Benson ran with vs NO. It also allowed Thomas Jones to play the game with a huge chip on his shoulder. The containment of Freeney is huge and Tait I think will struggle cause he is a big OL not a quick OL. The Bears will be able to run the ball. Some say Lovie Smith didnt trust Rex to throw the ball in the 1st Half . Well I applaud Smith for realizing that Rex was struggling and not putting in him a postion where he needed to make a lay until he was righted somewhat. I still cant go over the handoff to Rhodes on 3rd and 5 when Indy was already in very makeable FG. Dungy plays it to safe and Lovie gambles. How in the world is Dungy with Manning at QB playing it safe? If Manning cant throw for a 1st down who can? The man was playing for a tie!!! He was gonna ask his defense to stop Tom Brady. I dont care much for comparing coaches but Dungy is simply to conservative IMO.

The Colts have scored 15 , 24 ,17 , 17 and 14 in the past 5 games on the road. They had 6 points at half vs NE last week. The offense isnt running smooth .

I know people will think of this as ridiculous but I think it has merit. The Bears played @ Indy in preseason 2005.

Team Stats

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead></TD><TD class=datahead>Bears</TD><TD class=datahead>Colts</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>First downs</TD><TD class=datacell>17</TD><TD class=datacell>15</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Rushes-Yards</TD><TD class=datacell>37-152</TD><TD class=datacell>18-30</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Passing Yards</TD><TD class=datacell>91</TD><TD class=datacell>172</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Sacked-Yards lost</TD><TD class=datacell>5-38</TD><TD class=datacell>4-34</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Return Yardage</TD><TD class=datacell>107</TD><TD class=datacell>34</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Passing</TD><TD class=datacell>14-22-2</TD><TD class=datacell>23-36-0</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Punts-Average</TD><TD class=datacell>8-39.9</TD><TD class=datacell>9-46.3</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Fumbles-Lost</TD><TD class=datacell>4-1</TD><TD class=datacell>6-2</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Penalties-Yards</TD><TD class=datacell>12-95</TD><TD class=datacell>12-89</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Field Goals</TD><TD class=datacell>1-1</TD><TD class=datacell>1-2</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Red Zone Efficiency</TD><TD class=datacell>2-2-100% </TD><TD class=datacell>1-1-100% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Goal To Go Efficiency</TD><TD class=datacell>2-2-100% </TD><TD class=datacell>1-1-100% </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datacell>Time of Possession</TD><TD class=datacell>32 : 54</TD><TD class=datacell>27 : 06</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


Its funny we see the Bears being able to run and the Colts struggling. Its interesting we see Chi success pre-Hester in the return game. The Bears were up 14-7 at half. Thats somewhat meaningless. My point about the merit of this Exhibition game is that Indys flaws stopping the run and on return coverage were evident way back when. So I dont think they can correct those flaws at this point in the season if they havent already...which they clearly havent.

Another plus for Chi is the fact that it has Miami/Fla ties. The Bears have Grossman and 3 other Gators, Ogunelye started his career in Miami and Hester starred at Miami U! Only Reggie Wayne had Miami ties...

I see in Chi a team that has a very good defense the better of the two defenses. They have a solid punter in Manyard and kicker in Gould. I dont see this as anything but a TIE. Vinateri is clutch no doubt but Gould has done the job for sure and has a stronger leg outdoors. Vinateri's kickoffs are also part of the return game issues. The Bears have the better running game as well. What the Bears dont have is Manning , Harrison and Wayne. They do have the neutralizer to Dallas Clark in Desmond Clark.

So now looking @ Manning in 7 games outdoors this season (reg season) he had 89 passer rating and just 10 TDs and 7 Ints. Grossman played his best in teh warmer weather. So the egde Indyhas on paper is the three amigos. Well Harrison has disappeared in the playoffs and is possibly playing hurt and Manning just hasnt had a good playoffs. They dint score a TD in Balt and 1st H vs NE. Thats 6 quarters and defenses that are in Chi caliber so while will they improve here?? Indy squeaked by its first four road games against solid opponents...but Chi won in NYG , won in NYJ and lost by 4 in NE. The win in Denver is nice but nothing spectular.

At the end of the day I really think these teams are much closer to equal then given credit for. I agree with majent in that we shouldnt expect much line movement. Really not sure about the TOTAL yet I haevnt thought about it but think Bears 10-1 Over past 11..

Play: Bears +7 or better cause its a key number and some ML as well.
 
One side note. Before it gets questioned I should have developed what I said about Grossman outplaying Brees. Brees stats were much better but really inflated for a few reasons. One of which was an 88 yd TD pass to Reggie Bush that traveled 5 yards. Really he had a nice 2 minute drive before the half and the drives after half. For as much as he had the chance to do things he really didnt outside of the 2 minute drill drive before half. Grossman wasnt asked to do as much and probably made more clutch throws. It was two teams trying to do two different things. My point was when Chi needed a big pass play even if it was just 3 or so Grossman delivered. Where as Brees was getting sacked in big spots and always played from behind which helps accumulate passing yardage. Grossman did his job where Brees didnt...it wasnt suposed to be a QB comparision..
 
SportsNut,

You pretty much have the same logic I do on this game. I already played it yesterday pretty big. I'll post more thoughts in next few days. Just wanted to say you have this one to a tee it looks like.
 
Thanks BAR. Lots of discussion on this game already which is great. We seem to do well when our thought process is the same , so that has to be a plus..I took some +7 already figured I would wait on the other half incase I could get 7.5....BOL

Thanks NY BOB!!
 
SportsNut said:
One side note. Before it gets questioned I should have developed what I said about Grossman outplaying Brees. Brees stats were much better but really inflated for a few reasons. One of which was an 88 yd TD pass to Reggie Bush that traveled 5 yards. Really he had a nice 2 minute drive before the half and the drives after half. For as much as he had the chance to do things he really didnt outside of the 2 minute drill drive before half. Grossman wasnt asked to do as much and probably made more clutch throws. It was two teams trying to do two different things. My point was when Chi needed a big pass play even if it was just 3 or so Grossman delivered. Where as Brees was getting sacked in big spots and always played from behind which helps accumulate passing yardage. Grossman did his job where Brees didnt...it wasnt suposed to be a QB comparision..
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couldn't have said it better myself. brees will generally have huge numbers in losses (500+ vs CIN).....spot on analysis, as usual
 
Sidenote is you should reread my previous threads if you think I am NOT respecting Indy here. I had Indy all three games and big. I dont recall anyone defending Indy as strongly as I did before KC and Balt. Last week was simply now or never for Peyton . It didnt take any capping at -3. He either beat a watered down version of the NE reign of supremacy or it was never gonna happen. I simply think at the end of the day this line is bad in the terms of value.



Thanks BeASaint...thought I might get slaughtered for that comment...
 
SportsNut said:
Thanks BeASaint...thought I might get slaughtered for that comment...
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you're right, no matter how much i screamed at you about Balt, you were on Indy big all three weeks.

although i think you're probably going to get slaughtered because my recently sub-par handicapping agrees with you. without Seattle +10, i'd be down a ton of juice right now.

BOL, i'm with you
 
BeASaint said:
you're right, no matter how much i screamed at you about Balt, you were on Indy big all three weeks.

although i think you're probably going to get slaughtered because my recently sub-par handicapping agrees with you. without Seattle +10, i'd be down a ton of juice right now.

BOL, i'm with you
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Actually I had no idea about your post when I typed that. It was just a general statement not even directed at you. When I submited it then I saw your post. So rather then a 1 line response Ijust edited in the last message. So that post until the last sentence had ZERO to do with you. I didnt even recall you being on Balt that day.

Seattle was a great play. I am still kicking myself for talking myself into Chi and NO that week. I convinced myself they were begging oneto take those dogs. I was silly...GL bro:cheers:
 
Nice write up. I hate to see all the things that made me bet the Ravens jump out at you for the Bears, but I get why they would.

The bottom line is that Manning hasn't played very well away from home this year. So, really, why should we think he will here.

That said, him playing worse on the road only gets him closer to where Grossman is in his development as a QB. Grossman is still young, and in many cases, so willing to do something stupid.

I think the trick with this game is not to get sucked into playing the line. I know, more often than not, you will hear me say that you have to play the game on the board--and you do--but when there's only one game on the board, and it's sitting there for two weeks, at times I think you can make more of the points being laid or given either way.

I look at this game and in a snap judgment I think the Colts have about a 65% chance of winning it, maybe closer to 70%. Just based on talent and where the teams are in their development. We saw last week what happens when Manning gets down, we don't know what will happen to Rex if he's in the same situation.

That said, it's tough to look at this Indy team and like anything over -6.5. I personally think at 7 you're looking for the push and maybe the win if only because, as we can all pretty much agree, if this game wasn't the SB the line would be closer to 4.5 rather than 7.

Good luck, SN, I worry that there's a chance Chicago could implode on ya, but I hope they cover--just not win the game.
 
nut - i keep hearing how manning is under no pressure since he got the NE demons off his back. i think just the opposite.. manning will put more pressure on himself to win and this is what is making him play worse in this years playoffs. i listened closely to the presser after the ne/indy game and he talked about how much time the team and he spent working on making sure they were prepared. looking closely at this eyes and facial expressions all i saw was him sweating. what is the old attiage - never let them see you sweat..this is all i have seen payton do is sweat. what about the last pictures of manning setting on the bench with his head down as ne was driving the ball in the last minute of the game. as we know a picture tells the story. imo manning is putting way to much pressure on himself and this is making him play worse. your statement about the interception in the first half is so on. it was a forced throw.. anyway, i know indy can score and play well but they would have lost the champ game if it was on the road since the crowd is instrumental in keeping the atmosphere and momentum in the colts favor. thanks for your effort !!!!
 
Thanks guys. This is a response to both posts just generalized.

I tend to look at the fav and the underdog in completely different context. Especially with a line that denotes more then simply picking a winner. For me with Indy its not about them winning cause I rarely play fav ML's. For me its beat the line basically.

To me the singlest scariest aspect of this game is the fact Indy has not played there best game yet and is 3-0. I know the Colts are much better then they have shown or I would have not backed them every game! We saw a slightily above average KC defense with some experience against Manning give him some trouble or at least somewhat limit the offense. They could not score a TD in Baltimore. The difference is Brown is hurt and Balt had Ed Reed bewteen those defenses. Then at home vs NE they manage two 1st Half FGs. The game was nearly lost for Indy so many times but it just worked out. When the Colts fumble and Saturday recovers it for the score thats the game there. If NE recovers its game over.

So that strikes me as a huge concern.

As far as Manning he ended the season strong but since the first game vs KC he has been shaky for a variety of reasons. How much credit can I give the best QB in the game for getting time and hitting wide open WR's? I think its hard to say what or how Manning is thinking. I dont think he got to the Super Bowl like we had envisioned. I hate to say it cause what Manning does is remarkable on a football field but I feel he is soft. Sitting with your head down at this pont in your career is telling IMO. Thats a team leader looking like a pussy or defeated man. Oooh I am to scared to watch. If I am Lovie Smith I use that to motivate my defense. The Bears are better then the Ravens much better IMO.

If Manning gets down again to me its proven he cant just make things happen. It has to be everything in sync. Peyton Manning can NOT just drop back and move the ball especially versus Chicago. We saw how much trouble Addai had versus Balt and then in pass protection vs NE.

The major difference bewteen the Ravens game and this is the spread and the much more potent CHI running game. Actually the Devin Hester factor as well . Losing Sams was crucial and that flew under the radar cause if you remember I harped on how important starting field position was for Balt this season.

I think I disagree with Grossman is so willing to do something stupid. I think its quite the opposite . Manning knows he has to make plays and leads to forced passes. Grossman take away that GB game cause I know he was not mentally into that game. Last 3 reg season and playoffs 7 TDs and 1 Int. I think he realizes he is better off just throwing it away and we saw that in the playoffs.

With the SuperBowl I think really you have to decide what type of game it will be. If you like Indy to win it svery hard to say dont lay -6.5. I tend to agree I would put Indy chances of winning this at 2 to 1 (at best). I think that leaves me with a better then 50% chance of the game falling within in 7 points even if the Colts win...

Interesting point about being down. Thats something thats missed Chi rarely gets down though. The last game doesnt count but it was only Miami and Arizona who I recall having big leads on them. In the biggest game of the year Indy gets down 21-3 early. To me that says alot about Indy. They have been down often this year for a variety of reasons.

At the end of the day I just think this line is whack. I dont think it would be -4.5 on a neutral field no way , no how. I think more like -1.5 to -2.5 . The main difference here is the LINE is truly just a tool to spereate action. There was very little difference bewteen spreads for these teams in similiar situations despite the difference in approach. That tells me they are very close to equal...very close as teams.

I certainly could see CHI imploding cause you never know with Rexy. Thats something I have made peace with. I dont think that I am looking for a PUSH here cause 3 and 4 points are very possible in this matchup. To me if you like Indy your betting they cruise here. That is something that hasnt happened in 9 road games.

Going to be interesting.....BOL
 
At the end of the day I just think this line is whack. I dont think it would be -4.5 on a neutral field no way , no how. I think more like -1.5 to -2.5 .

Ah ha. That's where we differ. I was wondering why it felt like we were a good three or so points off on our looks at this game, and there it is.

See, I look at this game and think that if it were in Chicago the Colts would be a -1, so I have to put a neutral field at a 3.5 or a 4. (For the record, that -1 comes in part from Indy @ Dallas and Indy @ Jax.)

I think seven is a fine number, and as I've said I will likely aim for a middle with my ML and a little of the 7.5, my concern is just if Chicago gets down. Rex is a gambler, and if they're put in a position where they need to go away from the run a little, I think they could lose by 13 without trying very hard.

You know what's funny to me about this game, however, is that both of these teams have started slow in the playoffs. Both teams should have scored TDs early on in the first half of their games and yet they kept coming away with FGs. It will be interesting to see if one, or both, of these teams starts that way again next week.
 
I cant see how they would install Indy as a Favorite in Chicago. The Colts were dogged @ Denver , Indy and Balt by 3 and 4....virtual PKs in Jax and Dallas.... Chicago is better then all these teams and about 1 pt worse then NE....You really would after bashing the Colts about there play on the road would make them a DOG in Chicago?? What happened to Peyton in NE when it was cold??

Lovie Smith wont let Rex gamble and I think Rex doesnt want to either. He took the safe option everytime they were in FG range. When he wasnt playing well Lovie took the ball out of his hands...

Could Chi lose by alot? Sure they could but I think to many people have that Carolina gamein there mind. That was the Baby Bears these are the full grown Bears.....

Should be interesting though...
 
I do think its extremely odd that 2 weeks you didnt see value in the Colts @ +4 but now dont seeIndy at -6.5 or -7 as expensive....Bears are much better then Balt at full strength with the 2 starters misisng tehy are still better. balt has no offense. The way Grossman hits the deep ball I'll take him ove McNair today. When has McNair made a big play this year? All those crap 4th q comebacks against teams that should have put the game away long before. Running game and OL is all Chicago. Balthas some talent on WRs but dont sleep on the Bears foursome of Berrian , Muhhammad , Bradley , Davis......

Think your seriously undervaluing Chi as a team
 
Well, wait a sec. I never said I didn't see value in Indy at +4 in Baltimore, I had the Ravens at -3 and on the ML, with the majority on the ML. Four is a different story. I didn't lay four anywhere and saw value in the Colts at the price, I just didn't take it.

As we've talked about before, just because you see value in a number doesn't mean you have to bet it--and actually, that's what's keeping me off the Bears right now.

Second, I think you see me making the case for laying the 7 here when that's not what I'm doing. I'm saying I understand the line, not that I'm going to bet it. The only thing I have on this game so far is the ML based on Indy futures to win the SB. I have not bet -7, nor will I. I may take a little bit of -6.5, but more likely I will take a little bit of +7.5 to try for the middle.

I'm making Indy a -1 at Chicago not based on the weather. Just Indy goes to Chicago, like Curious George goes to the hospital, a fictional 'what if.' Now, if it were this particular week, February in Chicago, sure, I'd make the Bears a -1 or -2.5 favorite. Only because of the cold and Indy's history in it. But, to me, home field in Chicago on a normal day is only worth three points and since I'd have Indy at -4 or -4.5 on a neutral field, that's why I'd end up with them at a -1.

Also, not that it matters, I'd do it to minimize the ML on both sides being that Indy's a public team and Chicago would be at home.

I do see the value here in the Bears, I just worry that they need to play a great game to cash the ticket. Whereas, as you said, Indy has yet to play a great game in the playoffs and they're still 3-0 SU and ATS. So my feeling is, even if they don't cover, they've got the better chance to win whether they play very well or just OK.

Last, you know, I'd love to not sleep on the Bears' WRs, but their performance forces me to do so. I think they go two deep at best. Berian is the only one I fear and having Harper on him with Betha and Sanders over the top makes me feel much better. Meanwhile, Muhammed right now is a possession receiver. Why he's become that this year I don't know, but that's what he's become.

What the Bears desperately need is production from their TE Clark to help their passing game, but I think that entails Grossman throwing over the middle which I think sort of scares the s**t out of Lovie and the boys.

That said, I will be the first to say that the Colts aren't as deep at WR as they should be. Not just because Stokley is out, but because Marvin Harrison doesn't show up in the playoffs. Now, this is his big chance, and big talents often shine on the big stage, so maybe he proves me wrong, but Marvin Harrison is turing into football's version of A-Rod, great in the regular season, nowhere to be found once it counts.

Speaking of which, you know what I'm shocked nobody is discussing is the total.

I mean NOBODY is talking about this number. I know it's the SB, so add three points or whatever, but 49?? For a Bears game?
 
Actually what I was trying to say was see value in that line. I meant as in the line being inflated. Thinking back I thought you believed the line was fair and I thought it was somewhere around 2.5 to 3 points to high. Thats what the comment was based on.

I do understand you dont like understand your more about the Indy ML then the spread. I just feel if your not comfortable laying the chalk then why play a pricey ML? I know why but you see my point. Its like a teaser in asense...you get those extra points that really dont mean much in the majority of wagers.

As for Indy -1 @ Chi I would never change a spread based on weather just the value placed on it. It would be a negative for Indy to travel now to Chi with the weather but it would not change the number placed on it.
I just cant understand how you see +4 in Balt as relatively fair then turnaround and say Indy should be favored in Chicago? There is no way the Balt offense is better then Chi's offense...not the way I see it. Grossman has shortcomings but as I explained all season BALT still has no offense period. If there defense doesnt set it up then they aint scoring. Home field is a variable and a tool. Its like almost the same fucntion as a line. Its something youhave to decide for yourself 3pts ,3.5 ,4 , maybe 2...

Anyway like I said no way is Chi dogged once all season and Indy dogged or PK 5 times or so on the road ..... and suddenly favored in a game versus an elite opponent regardless of AFC or NFC.

The main difference bewteen US happens to be this IMO. You simply think the Colts are clearly the better team and I dont. I think based on there offensive talent that makes them the slightest of favorites and Chi somewhat unknown commodity here. All Indy has is a QB that makes you feel QB...and by that I mean you the Bettors...

I dont think CHI needs to play great or its best game to win/cover not by any means. I just fear everything going right for Indy. Two different things IMO...if they both play good games not best possible type games I think this is a FG game....I agree the Colts could sneal out a win but your paying so much for that option...

Whats wrong with there performance? Muhammad has always been a possession WR but he is as good as those types get. One of the best fundamental WRs in the game(excellent blockerin the run game) , Berrian was injured and now fully healthy is one of the better deep threats in the game , Bradley has been hurt alot this year but just look ay how he played last year before the injury , Rashied Davis stepped up some in Berrians absence and played well vs Seattle. You cant look at numbers and get afeel cause they avg what 16 completions a game?? They have capable guys IMO..just like I am confident Fletcher and Moorehead can make plays for Indy....

Desmond Clark has been there everytime he was needed and I dont see why that will change now. I see Chi making plays when they have to and not having gaudy stats that a high scoring offense does. They have production though....

Great comparision Harrison vs ARod....

The total I tend to think Over because its always got that exhibition feel to it. I just wanted to get the side done first. I think people over look Bears 39 and Indy 38 last week....I am pretty comfortable thinking these teams can get to 23 ,24 each...
 
Yeah, I think we're going to start getting away from the point which is the SB, but let me clear up where I was with Indy/Balt & Indy/Chic on a neutral field.

Yes, I thought there was value to Indy at +4, but I understood the line based on the situation (Baltimore off the bye, at home, Indy losing their last four on the road, etc.) and since I liked Baltimore to win the game I didn't want to try to catch the middle or side on a 3.5 or 4 point line. My mistake. (This week will be a different situation, though, as I can try for that middle with more room.)

I wouldn't move a Indy/Chicago line based solely on the weather, my point is setting one line based on a hypothetical contest vs. another where you incorporate situational elements to that hypothetical situation. That's why I said if you wanted to put Indy in Chicago a week after the NE game (that is, taking into account everything else, simply moving the contest site) then, yes, I would favor Chicago because it's Feburary and Indy's coming off a huge comeback indoors at home, blah, blah, blah.

However, in a vacuum, Indy @ Chicago I would set the line differently. It's just a difference of how you and I are setting the hypothetical situation, nothing more. We're actually on the same page.

To clarify my position on the Colts ML it's this, I have the Colts to win the SB at plus-money future wagers. I'm not laying -250, nor am I advocating it.

Again, we agree on the line, it's a good two points higher than it should be.

That said, here's what worries me as I've mentioned before. Indy has exactly the offense that gives the Bears fits. Good QB who's willing to take what they give him, who can spread the field. They're also likely not going to be dealing with lots of blitzes because that's not what the Bears do and if the Bears are relying solely on their front four the Colts' O-line gave up the least sacks of any team in the NFL this year.

So I look at that and I think, OK, without weather to worry about, the Colts should be good for 24ish.

Great, so can the Bears match it? Yes, I think they can, however, I think that unlike Indy, the Bears can only get there one way. I think they need to get there either first, or they need to match Indy score for score. They will not do it coming from behind, that's not how they're built and I don't have faith in Rex to make it happen if he falls behind by 10 or 14 in the second half.

That's why I side with the Colts to win the game, because I think they can attack that 24 or more points from all angles. I don't think the Bears have as many points of entry if you will. Does that mean Indy runs away with the game, certainly not. But I think Indy's game plan is going to be somewhat like Chicago's. I think they are going to force Rex to beat them by putting together long drives. Can he do it, yeah. But can he also come unglued? You bet, because we've seen it happen.

Basically I think they're going to force Rex to play a very good game to beat them. Which, really is how it should be with the SB. And if Rex has a great game, throws for three TDs and no INTs to win the game, he'll have beaten me and earned my money.
 
Oh, two other quick things.

Let's all not forget how dominant the AFC was against the NFC all year long. Period. Again, it's not to say they'll cover, but these were just two different classes. (If anybody's looking for a counterpoint to that, I'd suggest the St. Louis Cardinals.)

Second, don't forget about a game not this year, but last year where Cincy went into Chicago with a similar set-up. Carson Palmer is noted for trying to pattern himself and his game after Peyton, and he went into Chicago and cut the Bears to ribbons. Again, that game was a year ago, so it's not a huge factor, but it is something to factor in seeing as how the offenses are similar in how they spread the field and attack a defense.
 
excellent thread...

and you make a very compelling case, SportNut...as always. good stuff, buddy.

personally, i still haven't decided...other than i'll prolly be playign more props this week, lol.
 
Great stuff Joe.

I do understand better now that you have futures play versus laying the -250. Quite a difference in prospective

The comment about Balt wasnt any sort of knock on you or to vere from the subject. It was more like as diligent as you are it is hard to imagine thinking Indy would lose in Balt but yet have the same chance as blowing out Chi. If you felt maybe that you were just off with that game and misjudged Indy and had changed your opinion then maybe I could understand. To say that 4 had some value but not as much value as Balt ML doesnt make me believe your opinion of Indy has changed much. Only your lower opinion of CHI as a team. I dont mean to get off the SuperBowl but Chi vs Balt is such an interesting comparision. Bears are not the 85 Bears here with Harris and Bown sidelined. They are a very good defense who I love the fact just plays that were gonna make you feel it defense. Every hit has a controlled purpose. I think the Bears offense is so much more capable then Balt. Grossman is a concern but you can see that even if a bad game can he make 3 or 4 great throws to get you on the board. I do agree that Chi cannot fall far behind. I do agree with the way the universe works it wont be suprising to see CHI implode and INDY explode. However I think you need more of that CHI is easy attitude for it to setup that way and I dont foresee it. The way I see any event connected to a market its outcome is highly infuenced by perception.

Anyway if Indys offense plays like it did all playoffs can you see them going 3 scoring drives for 3tds or 2 drives for 2FGS(maybe 3) and maybe a TD..?? No one has gotten up big on CHI so why now? Indy is not a well oiled machine at this point. While Addai might not be scared I dont think he will be effective.

Two things I know about Indy. When there OL is playing well and Manning is sitting back there untouched it can get ugly. I also know that when NE did pressure him he looked like any other QB. So I dont think I will say that he is safe even without blitzes. The dink and dunk approachis great but it will stall if you cant run the ball. You cant go down the field on 6 yard gains through the air vs Chi...not for TDs at least..

I am suprised you are concerned that 10 or 14 pts is a big defecit..for me its 20+ pts. Your so down on Grossman who is a tale of two QBs for sure.

This whole Grossman thing just baffles me. Is he an All Pro QB? Nope. Is he better then average? Clearly IMO.

In 16 reg season games he had 8 games with 100+ ratings( included the 99 vs GB). He had 2 solid ratings in Det and in NYJ around 80 , 81. He had a neutral performance in Minny at 65 . That leaves 5 games...@ Zona , Miami , @ NE , Minny and the season ending GB game . The least explainable is Minny.

The game in Arizona. What happened? The world outisde of me expected Arizona to get ass raped that day. I loved that home doggie cause that line was ridiculous. Perception was far ahead of reality. The Bears never playing on MNF were thought to smoke ARI before it even kicked. The Cards showed up and pressure Rex all nite long. ARI defense is decent like Indys.

The game vs Miami similiar event except the Phins were one of the TOP defenses in the NFL. Something Indy is clearly not and more closer to Arizonas defense .

Then Rex played back to back awful games in NE and vs Minny. With the Pats its one of the toughest places to play and Tom Brady didnt exactly shine either. With Minny that is the one game that is odd. Other then Minnys run defense its odd he would struggle so much.

Then the last poor effort was the last game of the year vs GB. It was literally the last game of the season meant nothing and played on NYE. Grossman simply didnt show up mentally prepared.

So out of 18 starts he had 5 bad games and really inexcusable. In the playoffs Manning is 72 ,40 and 79...and the 79 is all 2nd H in NE vs a tired defense. The Colts ran 80 plays that day....EIGHTY!

To me I think Grossman is very Big Ben Roethlisberger-esque! I dont see much difference bewteen these guys. When Big Ben is going good he looks great when he isnt he isforcing INTS ala Grossman! I think the biggest knock on Rex is this he consisntently inconsistent to extremes. he is either very good or very bad with little in bewteen. So little inbewteen in fact that he played almost every game outside of 3 well out of the range of his 73,74 passer rating.

I think our approach is different. I do agree that the Colts have more ways to get to 24 on offense but I think Chi has more ways to get 24 cause it could come from the defense or return game. When you need points it easier to get them from your offense which makes Indy attractive. Chi due to its defense and return gane could starte very possession at there 35 or 40 and I wont be suprised.

I think you need to know one tricky fact. Grossman in the games he threw 2+TDs in ::

18TDs and 1 INT which was 7 games!

When he throws 2 INTs +

2TDs and 18 INTS which was 6 games!!

With the playoffs included he is 5 TDs and 2 INTs in the 5 other games remaining.....Chi is 14-0 when rex does not throw 2 INTS or more (so 1 or less)

Now during the regular season the COLTS versus a weak schedule they allowed 16TDs passing and had 15 Ints...they had only 25 sacks. The teams both scored 427 points.

While bettors struggle to stake confidence in Grossman the Bears have had all along.

In regards to the AFC thing. Again simple media misperception. I saw Chi smoke Buffalo , shutout the Jets @ the Meadowlands , lose by 4 in NE in a game that was always close and winnable and the bad home loss when Miami snuck up on them. Again how did Indy fair versus those teams? Colts nearly lost @ the Meadowlands won by 3 , they won by 7 in NE , they should have lost to Buffalo but Lindell missed the FG(which Indy was lucky in that all year cause opps hit 15 of 25 from 30-49 yds(60%)...)and the Cleo Lemon Phins gave Indy a game....

That Cincy game is so irrevelant and misleading. First it wasnt the same bears it was the baby bears. If it was at least late in the year I would give it some merit. Palmer did have 3TD passes but was 16 of 23 for 169. He didnt really dink either cause hit 36 and 40 yd TD passes to Henry and CJ. Wayne is a deep threat at times but really thats it. The 1st TD came off a turnover the other were big plays. No other Cincy drive accumulated more then 23 yds that day. They had 14 possessions and punted 9 times!

That was a sloppy game which 2 Bears INTS led to Bengals scores...think they had something like 244 yds of offense which was significantly below average which was 462 at the time...that game has little merit.

``We're definitely not there yet,'' Palmer said. ``We're pretty good. Offensively, we do some good things, but we're still a ways away from where we need to be.

I think it comes down to the uncomfortableness surrounding Grossman. can the Colts pressure him and force turnovers?
 
Thanks, SN, you too.

In one area you're absolutely right on. I was off on Baltimore/Indy. I was just wrong on the game. I say I saw value in the line only because Baltimore is not, was not, a big score team. Though I fully expected them to get to 20 in that game, given the Colts' offense, and Baltimore's propensity to play tight games, I could have easily seen that game finish at 20-17. That's why I wasn't going to lay more than a FG there, and, in that case I got the ML on the open at a good price so I didn't need to worry about it much.

But the fact is, I was wrong on the game. I liked the spot for Baltimore very much and many of the things surrounding the game and they just didn't show up on offense. These things happen.

Funny thing is, I was in almost exactly the same spot a year ago with Pittsburgh coming into Indy. I teased the Colts in that game down to a PK. Really liked them to win and we all know what happened. It was at that point that I jumped back on to Pittsburgh (I had 'em in Cincy) and rode them the rest of the way.

In some ways that's what's going on here, but in other ways it's just me staying with what I consider the better team.

I happened to be looking at stats this morning, did you know the Colts had more rushing TDs this year than the Bears? And that they rushed for a slightly better average than the Bears? And that they did it on 60 less carries? I didn't. And that's in the run game.

People make a big deal out of the Grossman thing--and I realize I am too, but I'm doing so, in part, based on the defense he's going to be seeing. To beat the Colts you need to sustain drives. Unless you're Jacksonville, then you just break 80 yard TD runs. But otherwise, you need to move the ball down the field bit by bit.

This forces a QB to be accurate and make good decisions. Grossman has yet to prove to me that he can do that for an entire game. He did it maybe once or twice during the regular season, but did it neither time during the playoffs--both games, by the way, I had money on the Bears in some way.

This suggests to me that he's not going to do it this week, either. So, for me, that's good for 17 to 20 points. (I totally agree with you on the return game, by the way. That's a serious issue for the Colts.) Manning, on the other hand, has sustained drives in the playoffs. His problem has been more about converting them into FGs rather than TDs. Even in the first half a week ago, when things weren't going well for the Colts, they still were getting guys open to move the ball, they just weren't connecting.

That's why, in this case, I feel more comfortable going with the guy and the offense that seem to have been able to be more consistent. Because that's what the schemes they're playing will give them. Neither team is playing the Saints, who give up big plays and therefore can keep you in the game. They're playing safe, Cover Two teams. They force you to be accurate and make good decisions.

So far, to me, Rex has only shown he can do that in spurts--part of his youth and cockiness, I believe--as opposed to a whole game whereas Manning has shown me he can do it.

Last, it's tough to call the AFC's dominance over the NFC this year media hype. The AFC was 40-24 vs. the NFC this year and, by and large, if you had a decent AFC team playing a supposed decent NFC team, you could bet the AFC blind.
 
I'll be back with more later.

The media hype part meant this. If I was responsible journalist I would have pointed out what I did about the Bears vs the AFC. The AFC is clearly the better league and deeper. No arguement from me. What does that have to do with CHI? They played well versus the AFC. I agree with your comments. The difference is neutral field and big enough spred were just picking the winner doesnt really help.

So to me its misperception to bring that into the equation. The Bears have no problem vs AFC teams who were of higher quality. We know most of the time the AL is deeper and stronger then the NL but at the end of the day its still about 2 teams not two conferences....

be back later!
 
You're right, the Bears did play well against the AFC. Though they played some bad AFC teams.

To my mind, they really only played one good AFC team, and that was NE. I know you're going to get on me about the Jets, and they had a good season. However, the Jets, and I loved them for this, were very consistent. They beat bad teams and lost to good ones. It just so happened that their schedule was fat with bad teams.

Their lone good win was vs. NE and we all know that was a grudge match.

Chicago, and you can only play who's on your schedule, but they lined up vs. Buffalo, Miami, NE and the Jets. They only should have lost one of those games, and they lost two.

Oooh, hey total sidenote, we just had a little earthquake here in L.A. Real small, but it happened as I was typing this.
 
Austintx_05 said:
I agree with Bears+7,but I gotta let my Colts +1152 ride...
Click to expand...

Welcome back Austin.

I played the Bears quite big. Big props to guys like yourself, Vas and Hunt with the futures..

You want to let it ride..fine...but cap the game..and see if you have a strong side and play it. If you think Bears are strong you should at least dabble a lil ML as a hedge

Gl
 
BAR - The hedge or "middle" here is Chitown +7...not a true middle,but I see the Colts winning by 3-4 points...and honestly the last blowout SB we saw was TB over Oak with TB being a 3.5pt dog....nowyou say thats more reason to put a little on the Chitown ML....itsa cliche but it really is Peyton's year....and I think the NFL and the world would love to see him win one...as would I, hunt & vas but all for different reasons :)

One of the reasons for the future play on Indy was that unlike inyears past, Colts have been winning close games,they have been running more possession offense instead of 3 play 80 yard drives. Just as you saw with D Wade in the Finals last year and how Stern wanted it for the league, Peyton winning the SB and defying the critics is what is best for the league...

I don't wanna cry fix,cause I truly believe the Colts are the better team...but it is something to think about...I woudl have more faith in Colts offensecoming back down 10,than I would with Bears....plsu Colts already displayed what they can do down 21-6 @ Halftime...

Its Tennessee vs Florida in an SEC showdown....lol
 
If I had your future..I would hit the +7 hard/...trust me..thats what I believe in...

I was just saying at worst you should hit the ML a bit
 
Its funny I rarely listen to sports radio. I just happened to tune into the Michael Kay show 1050 AM or whatever it is. Anyway they are talking SuperBowl and this guy calls in. Great way to get a handle on the perception of the public is listening to these shows. All these guys do is regeratate(spelling?) what they hear and read. They dont understand the concept of forming an unbiased or uninfluenced opinion. Anyway what you think this guy says.

The Colts have suprised with there ability to stop the run and I think they can slow the Bears run game down. Then he says I cant trust Grossman to make a play if he needs to. Which Kay responds even though he went 6 for 6 down the stretch in NO after starting 5 of 20? He says the kid is inconsistent and cant be trusted to make a 3rd and 7. Funny is that the same arguement Every Colts backer makes? Can they get original?

Kay just pointed out that Grossmas did make plays when he had to. The moron responds I dont think he can do it on a big stage. Oh the NFC Championship game doesnt count what about at Fla???

The Colts will not stop the Bears running game. Grossman will be fine and I just cant wait to watch this game. Cause its a great matchup....finesse vs power!
 
Joe Public said:
You're right, the Bears did play well against the AFC. Though they played some bad AFC teams.

To my mind, they really only played one good AFC team, and that was NE. I know you're going to get on me about the Jets, and they had a good season. However, the Jets, and I loved them for this, were very consistent. They beat bad teams and lost to good ones. It just so happened that their schedule was fat with bad teams.

Their lone good win was vs. NE and we all know that was a grudge match.

Chicago, and you can only play who's on your schedule, but they lined up vs. Buffalo, Miami, NE and the Jets. They only should have lost one of those games, and they lost two.

Oooh, hey total sidenote, we just had a little earthquake here in L.A. Real small, but it happened as I was typing this.
Click to expand...


I totally disagree. Not with the Jets comment which I completely agree with. I dont see that as weak competition. The fact they loss to Miami was based solely on timing. The play that game when Indy faced them and they win. Context a game is played on is huge. Indy didnt play that well vs Buffalo or Miami at home. They didnt play that well @ NYJ either. If Bills kick the FG they win SU in Indy. Colts did play some tougher games but teams had weak schedules. As a whole Bears probably played these teams better but at least as good IMO. The difference is Indy is a team that isnt going to lose many games it should win. The Bears are gonna shit the bead every once in awhile. They will not shit the bed here though. The shit the bed when they get over hyped .

Austin made a point about winning close games. They are finally doing that but thats all they are winning. Continually playing close games versus inferior opponents shows me they arent that good. They had 13 wins and 9 were by 7 or less. They near lost to or where outplayed at home by Jax , Tenny and Buffalo. They lost at Houston , Tenny and Jax. These are elite teams?? They struggled to defeat a depelted Miami defense and Cleo Lemon in a meaningful game.

Can it be a week away and we have exhausted the conversation?

Seriously the keys are simple.

Can the Colts not get shredded in the return game?
Can the Colts stop the bears ground attack?
Can the Bears secondary play well against Peyton?
Can Addai orRhodes run on Chi?
Can Grossman play well but conservatively?
 
SportsNut said:
Seriously the keys are simple.

Can the Colts not get shredded in the return game?
Can the Colts stop the bears ground attack?
Can the Bears secondary play well against Peyton?
Can Addai orRhodes run on Chi?
Can Grossman play well but conservatively?
Click to expand...


Damn Nut.. you really hit the nail right on the head here...

finding the answers to those 5 questions gives you your play no doubt.

been looking over this game and you are pretty much right on saying it's finesse vs power... and honestly, if they both use their strengths to their advantages, this could be a fun one...

this thread is definitely a great read... I'm still looking at stuff, but if you don't mind, I'll probably come back in later to discuss... I say if you don't mind because it looks like you and Joe already drained each other here.. haha... good stuff like always though.
 
Its always good to discuss the game. I think Joe and I know eachothers counterpoints all to well at this point..
 
Its always good to discuss the game. I think Joe and I know eachothers counterpoints all to well at this point..

I completely disagree.

=)

I do think we've just about exhaused this game, SN. We know how this thing is going to play out--that is, at least what it's going to take to win.

For the Colts:
Protection and time for Peyton
Peyton makes plays
A semblance of a running game
A semblance of a defense

For the Bears:
Pressure on Peyton
Turnovers
Consistency and a lack of turnovers from Rex
Hold the Colts to FGs and run the ball

At this point I'm kind of over the side, all the value's in the Bears, but they may not be able to put together the game to pay it off. If I can get the 7.5 I'll probably try for some of the middle and just be disappointed if the Bears can't keep it close.

What's starting to intrigue me more is the total. That under is so tempting. Everybody knows that the game plan with the Colts is to keep their offense off the field. And the Bears are a running team. On the other side, even though the Colts can strike quickly, both teams run offenses that are tailor made for a running clock.

And yet, it's very easy to see Indy into the mid-twenties, maybe even more--and the Bears put up, and Indy allowed more than 30 last week.
 
You and I have no doubt. I meant if anyone fresh had something to say.

Actually what I had originally thought about was a 1st Half Under. Figure both teams come in tight . As you said both teams will probably have to scrape early. CHI is going to run and keep Peyton off the field. Unless Lovie does the illogical. Indy is going to have methodically go down the field. Look at the 1st H for both so far...

Plus both teams off high scoring Championship games.

Indy 26 , 31 , 24 , 27 first four away , since 14 , 17 ,17 ,24 and 15 . You sure about Indy in the mid twenties? I still contend that INDYs comeback was pure exhaustion by NE defense and nothing more.

One thing we didnt mention was 3rd down conversion rate. On offense Indy is high at 56%. However Bears allow only 31 % and Colots allow 47%. Remember I mentioned Lovie 's willingness to go for ot on 4th down and Indy struggle to stop NE in that spot? Worse is they allowed 11 of 14 on 4th down in the reg season as well.

Think I will be on the 1st H UNDER.

Gonna say Indy or the winner scores 23 here and we see 43 points scored in this game....
 
SportsNut said:
We saw that Devin Hester could have a huge day. Indy already resorted to putting starters on Special teams and Hobbs had a day. He returned 6 kicks for 220 yards. Now you face possibly the best in Devin Hester.
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damn bud.. I been real busy and have not been in much, there is definitely lots to discuss in this game... so many different things to look at... anyway, let me spit out what I can on your post above since it caught my eye immediately..

fist off, I agree... Hester is definitely tops in the league.... and the guy is a threat from anywhere in the field, but I don't think he can be counted on to be a factor as to the result of this game... now remember, I am NOT saying he cannot contribute by scoring a td or even getting some good field position for the Bears one or two times, but realistically, his chances of scoring would not be as good as him not scoring... hope we agree so far... I mean.. since even though he has the record for return tds this year, that doesn't mean return tds are easy to come by.. they are still a bitch to do.. right??

I actually find it funny reading how some people are saying (and no.. not referring to you so don't jump on me.. haha).. that Hester will score a td maybe even two... it reminds me of how people were talking about Randal El returning one last year... they just don't seem to understand that 6 tds in a 16 game season where some teams don't see you coming is hard enough.. much less to do it when you are being considered a threat and being keyed on...

here's my point...

in the last 5 games, Hester has had 8 fumbles... yes.. 8... and he had a fumble in all of them except one.. last week against NO... and in those 5 games, he has had no td returns....

In fact, in the last 4 games, he has not had a return (kick or punt) for over 25 yards....

his punt return average has been horrible in those games averaging probably less than 2 yards per return...

he was the only one who returned anything against the Saints, but against the Seahawks, Gabe Reid had one return and it was for 20 yards, which matched Hesters' longest return for the day... the week before against GB, Rashied Davis had less returns (2) than Hester (4) on kickoffs for the Bears, but Davis had a better average and the longest run of the day there too.. and Berrian outdid him in punt returns as well that day.... against Detroit, Davis matched him again in average and beat him again with the longest return for the day... Davis had more returns than Hester that time...

those were the last four games in a nutshell, but all I can say is Hester is most definitely a threat and CAN be a factor to making a difference, but he should not be COUNTED on to be a factor or to make a major difference.

anyway.. hopefully I can get back in here to discuss more with you... I would definitely like to see your input on some things I am looking at... like I said.. this one has lots to look at.
 
Would have to say its kinda crazy to expect Hester to score. What I am saying is he could lead to great starting position if he is touching the ball. Even if he doesnt touch it , if they short kick it or something. Vinateri is not the guy to kick it out of the back end zone so that is not an option. My feeling is there special teams can be exploited for good starting field position. Much different game if your starting at your 35 or 40 instead of your 20.

The problem with looking at what Hester has done recently and he was damn sloppy in that Seattle game is this. I have not seen a team play so poorly in kick coverage as Indy has. This is an ongoing problem for them.
He played some decent ones down the stretch. You cant look at the GB game for anything it was meanlingness squared. So who are we talking TB , Det with Marinelli a exTB coach , Sea and NO. I dont think Hobbs is anything special and he couldnt be contained.

So thats the influence I see him having. A team that is so poor on special teams will have to face one of the elite guys. There really is much for them to counter with. Berrian is a blazer as well so yo dont want him to have the ball. Your options with Vinateri are few. That is the impact I am looking for. No way do I expect him or the Bears defense to score.

Keep firing away when you have time
 
I did disagree with you saying him he shouldnt be counted on to be factor. I say this cause its not so much him as Indys special teams that is making my decision.

Colts on punt returns allowed 2nd to last this season and 3rd to last in kick returns in the NFL. This is a clear weakness which plays into a strength for Chi.
 
i couldnt agree anymore with what you have here in this thread SN. line should be no greater than indy -3. the line that we currently see indy -7 on this neutral site is far to big. indy -7 on neutral would translate to
indy -4 at chicago. My god is this line off.

A line that is off 4 pts IMO is worth a suitable bet. I cant wait for the game.

I think the SB comes down to a fg. 27 - 24 type of game. well thats all for now.
 
I kinda disagree about GB being meaningless squared... I say kinda because it probably was to the Bears and to their playoff situation and position at the time, but I don't think it was so much meaningless to a guy who just set the record for returns in a season and still had potential to boost it more... I mean really.. even in a meaningless game, I think you can count that he was doing his best to run it back everytime he touched the ball... but GB was on top of things in that game all around... I am sure they were focused on stopping him... he was held to 2 punt returns for a 0.5 avg, but he did okay on kickoffs...

I do agree that field position is crucial and he can help there, but I think, even against NO last week, NO turnovers and punts from deep in their own territory is what helped the Bears have good field position more than anything else... I think the Bears defense deserved alot more credit for field position in that one...

but I do agree that Indys' return coverage sucks... but I think if Hester is someone that is being focused on, they would be okay.. in other words... when facing NE, you prepare on finding ways to stop Brady, Dillon, etc... when facing KC, they were focused on stopping LJ... the thing is when they focus on something so much, that's when you get burned by the side show little things.. like special teams and turnovers that nobody was counting on... against the Bears, they know what Hester is and they know what he is capable of... I just think one of the reasons his numbers have gone down lately a bit is because teams are focussing on him more... that does make things alot harder... same thing happened to Dante Hall when he was considered a 'factor'... he became part of the opponents gameplan...

not sure what is gonna come out of Peyton here.. it seems Dallas Clark has been the one shining through the playoffs over the others, but I see that mainly because of what the defenses are allowing.. and of course... what their not allowing.... but I don't see Clark doing much here... he will help, but it is not the same having Urlacher shadowing you than it is some of these other linebackers that are more concerned with helping on Harrison and Wayne... but I also think if Chicago starts blitzing too much here, they will regret it... I just saw them give up and bend alot in some crucial moments against NO last week and against SEA... there is a weak spot in the pass coverage running that Tampa 2 zone cover defense... I guess what I am saying is Manning can correct and fix what Brees wasn't able to.
 
Here is my problem with that GB game. It had no implication for Chi , it was literally the last game of the season and played on New years Eve. It might sound follish to say there minds were elewhere but I truly believe they had no interest in that game and it showed. I believe if you dont have interest mentally well then playing part of the game just wont be there either. It may may a stretch I am wiulling to admit that but due to circumstance I just dont see how CHI cared two bits baout that game and it showed. I could be wrong though thats just my feeling...

In respect to the NO game I do agree. However thats part of what I am trying to say. Whether its the Bears defense , the punting of Maynard ot the return game its very likely CHI will have very good field position. Its just 3 aspects that I feel Chi has huge advantages in.

I dont agree with the part about focusing on 1 area only to get burned in other. The bottomline is no matter how much they focus on the return game its been a huge problem. Such a problem they have resorted to using starters who even failed on special teams. There special teams arent failing or appear to be failing cause of concentration on other areas / weaknessess. I do agree that teams are probably gameplanning for him more now. That doesnt solve the weakness of Indys problem though. So they gameplan for him does that mean it will be enough to slow him? It took years for Dante Hall to be neutralized though.

After harping on Chi strengths vs Indy weakness , we must be fair and talk about Manning vs the secondary. Now all this shit they put on TV about the secondary is propoganda IMO. I say that cause the two games were alot of those numbers were accu,u;ated reg season were STL and TB. The Bears IMO simply thought e knocked out the QB and were killing them late 3rd Q ....game over and shutdown mentally. The Rams most of the scores and yads I believe came in the final 7 minutes. The Saints as we saw mostly garbage yards and dropping back ever possession.

Not sure what they will do but 7 playoff sacks tells me Manning can be presured......

I think we are on the same path here. I agree with what your saying to a degree. For me its about finding postives for the Bears @ +7...they have just 1 weakness compared to Indy strengths IMO.....

Thanks Brewers fan , hopefully it lives up to my expectations and is decided either way by a FG late....
 
well.. the thing is, in the NO game, both teams started with punts after two possessions... then on the third, NO fumbles at the 50... and all CHI gets out of it is a fg... then on the next kickoff, NO fumbles again and CHI recovers at the NO 30.. and again.. just another fg... then on next NO drive, offensive pass interference comes in and brings their emotions even lower so they punt and give CHI the ball at midfield again only to allow another fg....

I can tell you right now, if the Bears are going to be counting on those turnovers to happen early on, then I think its going to be a long day... as long as they concentrate on slowing Peyton and the offense when they are in there and not so much counting on turnovers, then I think they could be okay here, but I don't think Peyton will give up that much slack to them early on and if he does.. the Bears better think tds and not fgs...

the bush play that went over 80 yards was a bit of luck on the NO side, but at the same time, the Bears fell asleep there... they can't do that here... but I do agree with you that the tv hype on the secondary is crap.. just about everything on tv is... but Harrison and Wayne have yet to show anything spectacular through these playoffs, if they can't do it here in the big game, then it's over for them.. but if they get going here... I don't know if Rex can keep up... they have the receivers, but I have seen Rex underthrow Berrian enough times this year that it isn't even worth considering them to be a major threat if Indy is on top of things... Rex has shown he can play well in crucial times to win games, but he has also shown sides that are just pathetic to watch...

anyway, you pretty much already mentioned the keys to this game and I agree with most so like you said, I think we are on the same path here.. but its just a matter of which side we're on..... I'll be honest.. I don't like the line at all... but I am still leaning indy for now... tough to do considering I believe top 3 defenses are 3-0 against top 3 offenses in the super bowl... I may sway, but we'll see as I am still digging... haha..

gl with the Bears bud.
 
I'm clueless about NFL but after reading this I have to put something on those Bears ;). Fantastic write-up SN. I'll be watching it as well. :cheers:
 
if your gonna hedge a futures bet, the ML is not the way to do it... im seeing +200 at best at most places, truthfully this should be closer to 300 if the spread is a true 7.... take the 7 and hope that middle hits
 
Super Bowl Funday:

Bears +7 -110 {10u}
Bears +7 -115 {10u}
Bears ML +220 {2u}
1st H Under 24.5 -130 {5u}


Props:{All 1unit unless noted}
Mannings 1st Pass will be Incomplete +170
Over 3.5 FG's combined teams -105
First TD scored is other then passing +110
Longest FG of the game ov44.5 -115
Total rush yards by Chi 123.5 over -140 {2units}
First TD scored by CHI Rasheid Davis +1200
First TD scored by Indy Dominic Rhodes +500
 
Last point...

We all see how the Jaguars get up for Indy. Some even foolishy replaying yeah its there SuperBowl. Does anyone not think Chi isnt at least as good as Jax?? Jaguars gave them hell this year. They were so lucky to win at home and got smoked away....If you have had to compare the Beras to AFC team I think Jax is a soild comparision except the Bears are better.

Also Sanders got nicked up in the last game , Mathis left pratice early Fri with back spasms which is never good (could be nothing or could be uncertainity) and Harper is gametime decision and cant be 100%....

I leave you with that...Oh and all the people mentioning how the AFC was -5.5 to the NFC before the Champ game and thinks it was a wise point or something. They forget that both home teams were about 4 pt sfavs which made them neutral or equal. Therefore it didnt take brain surgey to realize the line should have been around -5.5 in fact I think Pinny opened at -6. Indys comeback which IMO was alot of smoke and mirrors further skewed perception to push Indy higher.

So the moral is you had two teams with 3 spreads at home. If the AFC game was competitive it shoildnt have fluctuated much cause Indy and NE were basically equal. The same with the NFC opponent....

So this line has been inflated for no good reason other then Indy is involved off a comeback win...

Basically 3 or 4 points is what is considered home field. So if NE got in over Indy it wouldnt have mattered. The game of interest for the SuperBowl spread was Indy vs NE...think about ...the NFC couldnt do much to change the spread. NE blasting Indy may have weakened teh AFc and Indy blasting NE would have strengthen them. A flukeish comeback wound up influencing the line....
 
nice writeup as usual sportsnut and after all that reading I just did tells me this will be a close game for 3 quarters and in the 4th there will be a turnaround for one of these teams ppl have said the ints for peyton but with grossman as shaky as he can be I feel more comfortable with peyton as I would grossman as my qb. Da bears have lots of explosive players but what I see is the Hester and the special teams has had there moments all ready and the colts will not take nothing for granted here colts should have been to the big show by now and this is there time bol on your picks awesome writeup just feel the colts want it bad enough that they will get it. Da bears they are by far an awesome team but the colts they are more sound to proving to everyone that this is their time now I also look at something else here that not to many ppl have brought up but the bears have had another lets say byweek for them I do believe that does interupt momenteum, I could be wrong but with the humid skys of s. fla tonite the game will be a fun one to watch I wish you the best on your plays..BOL
 
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