Sugar Bowl Discussion...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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[TD="align: left"]Jan 02[/TD]
[TD]259[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]OKLAHOMA[/TD]
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[TD]<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="2_80165_-51.5_-110" style="margin-top: 4px; margin-right: 4px; margin-bottom: 4px; font-size: 18px; vertical-align: middle; width: 13px; position: relative; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(136, 136, 136) rgb(136, 136, 136) rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 0.2em 1.2em; box-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px 1px; cursor: pointer; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); height: 13px; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; text-shadow: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.74902) 0px 1px !important;">o51½-110[/TD]
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[TD="align: left"]8:30 PM[/TD]
[TD]260[/TD]
[TD="colspan: 2, align: left"]ALABAMA[/TD]
[TD]<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="1_80165_-17_-110" style="margin-top: 4px; margin-right: 4px; margin-bottom: 4px; font-size: 18px; vertical-align: middle; width: 13px; position: relative; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(136, 136, 136) rgb(136, 136, 136) rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 0.2em 1.2em; box-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px 1px; cursor: pointer; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); height: 13px; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; text-shadow: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.74902) 0px 1px !important;">-17-110[/TD]
[TD]<input type="checkbox" name="text_" value="3_80165_51.5_-110" style="margin-top: 4px; margin-right: 4px; margin-bottom: 4px; font-size: 18px; vertical-align: middle; width: 13px; position: relative; border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(204, 204, 204) rgb(136, 136, 136) rgb(136, 136, 136) rgb(204, 204, 204); padding: 0.2em 1.2em; box-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px 1px; cursor: pointer; color: rgb(68, 68, 68); height: 13px; border-top-left-radius: 0px !important; border-top-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-right-radius: 0px !important; border-bottom-left-radius: 0px !important; text-shadow: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.74902) 0px 1px !important;">u51½-110[/TD]
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Throw out the team names and from a purely statistical standpoint I like Oklahoma +17 - but history and coaching advantage huge in favor of Bama. OKL 0-5 L5 vs SEC. Mature leadership on Bama. This game is tough. I'm taking a shot at OKL 1H +9.5 hoping that Sooners can hang around.
 
Taking Bama for purely non-statistical reasons. Bama is going to destroy them I think. Coaching and player personnel.
 
C-MAN said:
Throw out the team names and from a purely statistical standpoint I like Oklahoma +17 - but history and coaching advantage huge in favor of Bama. OKL 0-5 L5 vs SEC. Mature leadership on Bama. This game is tough. I'm taking a shot at OKL 1H +9.5 hoping that Sooners can hang around.
Click to expand...

Not that it matters, but Alabama hasn't given up a first half point in a bowl game since giving up 6 to Texas in 2009. Also had 8 1H shutouts this season. Of course, the 4 to score on them were Va tech, aTm, LSU, and Auburn, who not coincidentally are the 4 best teams they played
 
What's more scary? Placing your hard earned money on Alabama or Oklahoma? I think it's an easy answer. I'd be shocked if Alabama didn't come out ready to play and OU has the worse big game coach in the business.

Ala - 34
Okl - 6
 
gps_3 said:
Not that it matters, but Alabama hasn't given up a first half point in a bowl game since giving up 6 to Texas in 2009. Also had 8 1H shutouts this season. Of course, the 4 to score on them were Va tech, aTm, LSU, and Auburn, who not coincidentally are the 4 best teams they played
Click to expand...

That '08 Sugar Bowl was a big motivator for Saban IMHO. I think Bama approaches the bowls in a different manner since that happened. 17 such a tough number. Given how the other 17 point dogs have done I want to take OU but as previously mentioned.....how can you have any confidence in a Stoops' led team in a big game?
 
Carolina Guy said:
What's more scary? Placing your hard earned money on Alabama or Oklahoma? I think it's an easy answer. I'd be shocked if Alabama didn't come out ready to play and OU has the worse big game coach in the business.

Ala - 34
Okl - 6
Click to expand...

this is just flat out nonsense.

9-6 vs Texas
7-1 in the Big 12 championship game
 
I don't get the Stoops hate either. His record in Bowl game is 7-7, but I think he's one of the better coaches out there.
 
scdoggy said:
I don't get the Stoops hate either. His record in Bowl game is 7-7, but I think he's one of the better coaches out there.
Click to expand...

Just like everything in life, we tend to remember the losses more than the wins. How many of us can reel off a list of the bad beats we've had gambling, but can only come up with a handful of the times we had a lucky win. Stoops hate also comes from having the nickname "Big game Bob" and then losing those BCS games in the mid-2000s. He will forever be known as the coach that lost to a mid-major in a BCS bowl. The losing 3 BCS Championship games hurts him too, but how many coaches have been to 3 BCS games in 5 years (besides the coach on the other sideline tonight)? He's a great coach, and easily one of the top 10 coaches in NCAAF.

17 points is a lot of points. But as mentioned above, who do you feel better about covering. I'll likely stay away from the full game line. Alabama 1H has some attractiveness at 9.5
 
I watched most Sooners games this year and all of the Okie State game and they are/were very lucky especially in the Bedlam game. Trick plays, lucky bounces, etc. Told myself no way I touch OU here. I think we see more Bama v Sparty bowl game than Bama v Utah. I have Bama pending a few teasers -9 and -10. Knight hurt his wrist in Bedlam I'll be surprised if he plays the whole game. After the last couple big dogs covering easy I wouldn't be surprised to see a 42-10 game.
 
I'm contradicting myself here a bit because I said earlier that those of us who try to guess about which team is "motivated" are just shooting in the dark, but I'd be careful about going large on this game. The similarities between this game are reminiscent from a motivational standpoint to the Bama/Utah Bowl game years ago. I'll agree with most of you, that this OU team isn't like the Utah team that beat Bama that year. I honestly think that Utah team may have been the best team in the land that season. But what needs to be remembered is that its tough to bring your A game when the air was let out of the balloon after you lost your previous game, which had you won - would have given you the chance to play for the National Title. This is as classic a letdown spot as there is. If Bama wins, oh well - they were supposed to. If they lose - they get clowned for losing to an inferior team. Stoops is not the guy I'd want to be coaching against in this kind of situation. Just keep that in mind when deciding how much loot to drop on this one..
 
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cubsker said:
this is just flat out nonsense.

9-6 vs Texas
7-1 in the Big 12 championship game
Click to expand...

How has he done in January? Seems like he has won ONE BCS/championship game out of seven or eight games. Numbers are crazy thing as we can make them do exactly what we want them to. But when push comes to shove, Oklahoma fans always seem to be let down in the last game of the year. Tonight will be no different if the script plays out like it has so many other times. 17 is a lot of points, but "Big game Boob" typically let's you down in these spots. Prove me wrong ...
 
Carolina Guy said:
How has he done in January? Seems like he has won ONE BCS/championship game out of seven or eight games. Numbers are crazy thing as we can make them do exactly what we want them to. But when push comes to shove, Oklahoma fans always seem to be let down in the last game of the year. Tonight will be no different if the script plays out like it has so many other times. 17 is a lot of points, but "Big game Boob" typically let's you down in these spots. Prove me wrong ...
Click to expand...

I was unaware that big games are only played in January. If a couple of championship game losses and a couple of BCS game losses are all you have against a guy, he must be a pretty damn good coach. Just the fact that OU has played 9 BCS games in 15 years and has won the Big 12 7 times in those 15 years tells me all I need to know. Bob Stoops can flat out coach and nothing can happen tonight that will change that fact.
 
Both are great coaches in my book. Big game Bob has won several big games..hell he won with josh heupel at Qb.
 
cubsker said:
I was unaware that big games are only played in January. If a couple of championship game losses and a couple of BCS game losses are all you have against a guy, he must be a pretty damn good coach. Just the fact that OU has played 9 BCS games in 15 years and has won the Big 12 7 times in those 15 years tells me all I need to know. Bob Stoops can flat out coach and nothing can happen tonight that will change that fact.
Click to expand...

When are big games played, cubsker? I don't give a crap about what he did in conference when I'm looking to make a play on a Stoops coached team in a January bowl game. When he goes toe-to-toe with other conferences in January he loses and loses and loses. Tell me - who has suffered more losses and less wins than Bob Stoops in January games? There's no question the guy is a "good" coach, but he is terrible in these games and it needs to be in the open for all to see when one is deciding to play Oklahoma or the opponent in a January bowl game. Why is that and less importantly why can't you see that? And listen to the announcers talk about it again tonight during the game like they do in every January game Stoops has coached in as the losses have piled up.
 
A lot of speculation about player motivation on the Bama side, but what about motivation of the coaching staff? We all know how much time and dedication these head coaches put in - is Saban gonna put in the same effort as he would if they were playing for a third straight NC? I doubt it - I don't care how dedicated the guy is it is simply human nature. Saban actually looks a little burned out IMO. The mistake at the end of the Auburn game was inexcusable and not characteristic of his past coaching. Think Bob is highly motivated to win this game and erase any questions about his ability to win big games. He will not coach this game conservatively and OU will have to take some chances early.
 
scdoggy said:
I'm contradicting myself here a bit because I said earlier that those of us who try to guess about which team is "motivated" are just shooting in the dark, but I'd be careful about going large on this game. The similarities between this game are reminiscent from a motivational standpoint to the Bama/Utah Bowl game years ago. I'll agree with most of you, that this OU team isn't like the Utah team that beat Bama that year. I honestly think that Utah team may have been the best team in the land that season. But what needs to be remembered is that its tough to bring your A game when the air was let out of the balloon after you lost your previous game, which had you won - would have given you the chance to play for the National Title. This is as classic a letdown spot as there is. If Bama wins, oh well - they were supposed to. If they lose - they get clowned for losing to an inferior team. Stoops is not the guy I'd want to be coaching against in this kind of situation. Just keep that in mind when deciding how much loot to drop on this one..
Click to expand...

You're right in that this is about as big a letdown spot as there is. However, this team is infinitely more talented and experienced than that '08 team. Also, this team feels like it should be the one playing FSU, and they have been quoted as saying this is their last chance to show the nation that they are the best team. I don't know if they'll cover, but I think the motivation will be there. If they don't play well, it will be other things, not a lack of motivation.

Also, there a lot of spots on the depth chart up for grabs next season. A lot of young guys trying to earn spots during practice the last 3 weeks, wouldn't surprise me to see some new guys with something to prove getting PT tonight
 
If you're using 2 qb's then you don't have one. Stoops was talking shit about the sec... He'll eat his words tonight.
 
OU just not that good IMO.....their #11 rank is a joke. They looked good against KSU the week after Zimmerman got hurt and that is literally the only game all year they looked "good" and Lockett still had like 300 yards receiving. If they can run for 300+ with the zone read then maybe they win or cover....I don't see it. Saban is a psycho....him and his staff will be ready.
 
Carolina Guy said:
When are big games played, cubsker? I don't give a crap about what he did in conference when I'm looking to make a play on a Stoops coached team in a January bowl game. When he goes toe-to-toe with other conferences in January he loses and loses and loses. Tell me - who has suffered more losses and less wins than Bob Stoops in January games? There's no question the guy is a "good" coach, but he is terrible in these games and it needs to be in the open for all to see when one is deciding to play Oklahoma or the opponent in a January bowl game. Why is that and less importantly why can't you see that? And listen to the announcers talk about it again tonight during the game like they do in every January game Stoops has coached in as the losses have piled up.
Click to expand...

Big games are played all the time. It's downright silly to think that a coach turns into a bad coach for a one week period in January when he has 15 years of evidence that show him as an outstanding coach the rest of the time. But you keep preaching this silly narrative if that's what makes you happy. It won't have anything to do with who wins or covers tonight.
 
gps_3 said:
Not that it matters, but Alabama hasn't given up a first half point in a bowl game since giving up 6 to Texas in 2009. Also had 8 1H shutouts this season. Of course, the 4 to score on them were Va tech, aTm, LSU, and Auburn, who not coincidentally are the 4 best teams they played
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm on Alabama -9.5 (1st Half), and I feel pretty good about it. I may also make a small play on UNDER 27 (1st Half). I usually like to save my UNDER bets in Alabama games for the 2nd half though.
 
Opponents score 90% of the time in the RZ against Oklahoma. That's good for 114th in the NCAA. Opponents score 64% of the time when they reach the RZ versus Alabama, ranks 3rd.
 
Opponents only REACHED the Red Zone 22 times this season versus Bama. That's good for 1st in the nation.
 
42% of Oklahoma's Red Zone Scoring this season was field goals. When you rank that nationally it's 118th.
 
Some good points all around. The more I look at this the more I like an Under full game...
 
cubsker said:
Big games are played all the time. It's downright silly to think that a coach turns into a bad coach for a one week period in January when he has 15 years of evidence that show him as an outstanding coach the rest of the time. But you keep preaching this silly narrative if that's what makes you happy. It won't have anything to do with who wins or covers tonight.
Click to expand...

Cubby,

With Bob's terrible record in Jan bowl games and all the other information being bandied about in this thread, you go ahead and bet with your heart. I wish you all the best. (VK shake)
 
Those red zone efficiency numbers are unbelievable. Making me rethink my position a bit.
 
NameAppearancesBCS W-LOverall BCS Era W-L
1. Bob Stoops93-5*159-39 (80.3%)
2. Jim Tressel85-3106-22 (82.8%)
3. Nick Saban75-1*142-38 (78.8%)
4. Pete Carroll76-197-19 (83.6%)
5. Bobby Bowden61-5108-46 (70.1%)
6. Frank Beamer51-4156-53 (74.6%)
7. Urban Meyer54-0*128-24 (84.2%)

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Bobby Bowden must have been a horrible coach as well.
 
SEC is (77-64-6) against Big 12,

Average score: SEC 21.9 - Big 12 21.1,

In bowl games: SEC is (34-28-1) against Big 12,

Average score: SEC 22.1 - Big 12 22.1
 
Here is one. Pick the winner of the game. Look at that trend for this bowl season. Quickly glancing, it appears that the winner has covered every game. Huh...go figure.
 
Ten wins in the sec is different. Texas gave up like 500 yards rushing to byu and Bamas only loss was a fg returned for a td as time expired.
 
Transitive property is a poor capping strategy, but ole miss got shut out by Alabama and they did ok against texas
 
i dont love doing this but i teased bama to -11.5 and added SF pick in NCAAB...Really dont see it being a rout and if oklahoma covers i still expect it to be because bama only won by 14
 
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