Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
[h=1]Picks: FSU will win big over Miami[/h] [h=3]Predicting Week 10's big games, including Florida State-Miami[/h]
Updated: October 31, 2013, 11:09 AM ET
<cite class="source"> By Phil Steele | ESPN Insider</cite>
<cite>Getty Images</cite>Florida State's Jameis Winston and Miami's Duke Johnson square off in a battle of undefeated teams.
Each week during the 2013 college football season I will offer up my picks and scores for the biggest games in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Week 9 is in the books and my picks went 7-2. Overall, this year my record stands at 62-19.
After a week that featured the top four teams all winning in impressive fashion, Week 10 sees Alabama and Oregon both idle, but it does bring us two teams who dominated the 1980s and 1990s college football landscape clashing in their biggest game in a decade.
[h=3]No. 7 Miami (FL) Hurricanes at No. 3 Florida State Seminoles[/h] Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, ABC
The last time these two faced off as undefeated top-10 teams this late in the season was 2003. There were eight upsets in nine years in this rivalry through 2010, but the favored Seminoles have won the past two games.
Last week could have been a flat spot for the Seminoles off the big win over Clemson, but they quashed those concerns by jumping out to a 35-0 first-quarter lead before cruising over North Carolina State. It was the sixth game this year they have won by four touchdowns or more, as quarterback Jameis Winston continues to make his case for becoming the second consecutive redshirt freshman to take home the Heisman Trophy.
On the opposite side, for the second straight week the Hurricanes escaped with a victory as Duke Johnson's touchdown run with 53 seconds left capped off a 24-21 comeback win over Wake Forest. Unlike the Seminoles who have been winning by large margins all year, the win over the Demon Deacons was the Hurricanes' third win this season by five points or fewer.
While Miami certainly has come a long way under head coach Al Golden, Florida State has made a case for being the best team so far this year with a top-10-ranked offense, defense and special-teams unit. While it worries me that most of the experts are calling for a blowout win, the fact remains that the Seminoles are the far superior team.
Pick: Florida State 48, Miami (FL) 24
[h=3]No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders[/h] Saturday at 7 p.m. ET
The Cowboys have taken the past two meetings in dominating fashion, winning 66-6 here two years ago and then following it up with a 59-21 pasting last year.
Last week I called for the Red Raiders to be knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten, and despite a valiant effort on the road in Norman, they fell to Oklahoma 38-30. After trailing 21-7 in the third quarter, they rallied to take the lead but couldn't hold on late. They come into this one 7-1 and still have Big 12 championship and big bowl game aspirations left on the table.
I have been waiting all year for the Cowboys' offense to show up on a consistent basis, as I rated it one of the best in the country coming into the season. Last week, they did get it in gear but it was the ground game that carried the way with a season-high 342 rush yards in their 58-27 win over Iowa State. Quarterback Clint Chelf only threw for 78 yards, but head coach Mike Gundy said he would get the start here as he managed the game well and was an effective runner.
While this game should go down to the wire, unlike the past couple of meetings, it is tough for me to get those drubbings erased from my memory as the Cowboys get not only their third straight win over the Red Raiders, but also set themselves up for a run at the Big 12 championship down the stretch.
Pick: Oklahoma State 33, Texas Tech 30
[h=3]No. 21 Michigan Wolverines at No. 22 Michigan State Spartans[/h] Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
The Spartans have won four of the past five games since former Wolverines running back Mike Hart made his now-infamous "little brother" comments. Michigan did finally get a win last year, but it came in the last seconds of a 12-10 defensive slugfest.
This year, the Big Ten Legends Division title is on the line as Michigan State comes in as the winner of four straight conferences games, while Michigan, despite the loss to Penn State, still remains in the hunt.
The Wolverines do have the edge coming in off a bye week, the first time they've had one before playing Michigan State since 1919. However, this game has been about which team owns the line of scrimmage, as the team with the most rushing yards has won 40 of the last 43 meetings. The huge edge goes to Michigan State in this category, as the Spartans boast the nation's No. 1 rush defense, allowing just 55 yards per game, while Michigan has been dealing with inconsistency on their offensive line.
I'll call for little brother to take down big brother for the fifth time in six years.
Pick: Michigan State 27, Michigan 20
[h=3]Georgia Bulldogs versus Florida Gators (in Jacksonville)[/h] Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
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<cite>Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports</cite>Can Georgia's Aaron Murray beat Florida for a third straight time?
What a difference a year makes. Last year, these teams both came into this matchup ranked in the top 15. This year, they come in wounded losers of two straight games. Both are on the outside looking in on the Top 25 and the race for the SEC East Division title.
Three weeks ago, Georgia was in control not only in the SEC East but also had BCS Championship aspirations. Those all came crashing down thanks to injuries to many of their skill-position players that led to back-to-back losses to Missouri and Vanderbilt.
The Gators have not fared much better on the injury front, and it started with quarterback Jeff Driskel being injured in the Tennessee game. While backup Tyler Murphy won over Gators fans in his first couple of starts, he has not thrown a touchdown pass in the past two games and has been sacked 10 times during that span.
While dreams of a BCS championship and most likely an SEC championship are done for both of these teams, this game still means a lot to both fan bases. I will call for the Bulldogs, who welcome the return of running back Todd Gurley and also have the experience edge at quarterback with Aaron Murray, to get their third straight win over their rivals after getting dominated in the series for much of the previous 20 years.
Pick: Georgia 24, Florida 20
[h=4]Quick hitters:[/h][h=3]No. 24 Wisconsin Badgers at Iowa Hawkeyes[/h] Saturday at noon ET, ABC
These two have not played since their classic 2010 encounter, with No. 10 Wisconsin beating No. 13 Iowa 31-30. The Badgers are the fresher team as this is just their third game in five weeks, while Iowa has played two physical teams in Michigan State and Ohio State and last week went to overtime with Northwestern. The key matchup in this game will be the powerful Badgers rushing attack led by Melvin Gordon, who already has 1,012 yards while averaging 9.5 yards per carry, against an Iowa defense that has allowed 200-plus rush yards in each of their past two games. Wisconsin flexes its Big Ten muscle yet again here.
Pick: Wisconsin 30, Iowa 14
[h=3]No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes at Purdue Boilermakers[/h] Saturday at noon ET
Purdue has actually taken the past two games played here and last year appeared to have pulled off another upset over the Buckeyes before Kenny Guiton led Ohio State to a 29-22 comeback overtime win. This year there will be no upset and no chance for a close game, as the Buckeyes finally got an impressive showing for the voters last week by handing Penn State its worst loss since 1899. Look for the Buckeyes to get their second straight comfortable win.
Pick: Ohio State 48, Purdue 10
[h=3]Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 14 South Carolina Gamecocks[/h] Saturday at 12:21 p.m. ET, ESPN3
South Carolina has won six straight in the series and return home after a three-game SEC road trip that saw them climb back in the race for the East title after an upset win over Missouri last week. The Bulldogs have not played on the road for seven weeks and have not been impressive in each of their past two games despite winning both. Although the Gamecocks still need a little help in the form of a Missouri loss, they make one more step to Atlanta here.
Pick: South Carolina 34, Mississippi State 17
[h=3]No. 11 Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks[/h] Saturday at 6 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Razorbacks have won four of the past five meetings and are coming off a bye. These teams look to be going in opposite directions as Auburn has four straight wins and is starting to think BCS bowl, while Arkansas has five straight losses. However, this is the Hogs' last chance to make a possible run at a bowl, while the Tigers have been getting a lot of love after pulling the upset over Texas A&M two weeks ago. This one goes down to the wire.
Pick: Auburn 27, Arkansas 24
[h=3]Tennessee Volunteers at No. 9 Missouri Tigers[/h] Saturday at 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Last year, the Tigers got their only SEC road victory of the season by defeating the Volunteers in dramatic fashion, winning 51-48 in four overtimes. This year, they are coming off a devastating 27-24 loss to South Carolina in two overtimes after holding a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead. While they still control their own destiny in the SEC East, a win over the Gamecocks would have all but assured a trip to Atlanta, and you have to wonder what frame of mind they will be in. Tennessee will go with freshman quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who will be making his first start here. While I will call for the Tigers to get a bounce-back win, this one could go down to the wire like last year.
Pick: Missouri 30, Tennessee 24
Updated: October 31, 2013, 11:09 AM ET
<cite class="source"> By Phil Steele | ESPN Insider</cite>
Each week during the 2013 college football season I will offer up my picks and scores for the biggest games in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Week 9 is in the books and my picks went 7-2. Overall, this year my record stands at 62-19.
After a week that featured the top four teams all winning in impressive fashion, Week 10 sees Alabama and Oregon both idle, but it does bring us two teams who dominated the 1980s and 1990s college football landscape clashing in their biggest game in a decade.
The last time these two faced off as undefeated top-10 teams this late in the season was 2003. There were eight upsets in nine years in this rivalry through 2010, but the favored Seminoles have won the past two games.
Last week could have been a flat spot for the Seminoles off the big win over Clemson, but they quashed those concerns by jumping out to a 35-0 first-quarter lead before cruising over North Carolina State. It was the sixth game this year they have won by four touchdowns or more, as quarterback Jameis Winston continues to make his case for becoming the second consecutive redshirt freshman to take home the Heisman Trophy.
On the opposite side, for the second straight week the Hurricanes escaped with a victory as Duke Johnson's touchdown run with 53 seconds left capped off a 24-21 comeback win over Wake Forest. Unlike the Seminoles who have been winning by large margins all year, the win over the Demon Deacons was the Hurricanes' third win this season by five points or fewer.
While Miami certainly has come a long way under head coach Al Golden, Florida State has made a case for being the best team so far this year with a top-10-ranked offense, defense and special-teams unit. While it worries me that most of the experts are calling for a blowout win, the fact remains that the Seminoles are the far superior team.
Pick: Florida State 48, Miami (FL) 24
[h=3]No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 15 Texas Tech Red Raiders[/h] Saturday at 7 p.m. ET
The Cowboys have taken the past two meetings in dominating fashion, winning 66-6 here two years ago and then following it up with a 59-21 pasting last year.
Last week I called for the Red Raiders to be knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten, and despite a valiant effort on the road in Norman, they fell to Oklahoma 38-30. After trailing 21-7 in the third quarter, they rallied to take the lead but couldn't hold on late. They come into this one 7-1 and still have Big 12 championship and big bowl game aspirations left on the table.
I have been waiting all year for the Cowboys' offense to show up on a consistent basis, as I rated it one of the best in the country coming into the season. Last week, they did get it in gear but it was the ground game that carried the way with a season-high 342 rush yards in their 58-27 win over Iowa State. Quarterback Clint Chelf only threw for 78 yards, but head coach Mike Gundy said he would get the start here as he managed the game well and was an effective runner.
While this game should go down to the wire, unlike the past couple of meetings, it is tough for me to get those drubbings erased from my memory as the Cowboys get not only their third straight win over the Red Raiders, but also set themselves up for a run at the Big 12 championship down the stretch.
Pick: Oklahoma State 33, Texas Tech 30
[h=3]No. 21 Michigan Wolverines at No. 22 Michigan State Spartans[/h] Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
The Spartans have won four of the past five games since former Wolverines running back Mike Hart made his now-infamous "little brother" comments. Michigan did finally get a win last year, but it came in the last seconds of a 12-10 defensive slugfest.
This year, the Big Ten Legends Division title is on the line as Michigan State comes in as the winner of four straight conferences games, while Michigan, despite the loss to Penn State, still remains in the hunt.
The Wolverines do have the edge coming in off a bye week, the first time they've had one before playing Michigan State since 1919. However, this game has been about which team owns the line of scrimmage, as the team with the most rushing yards has won 40 of the last 43 meetings. The huge edge goes to Michigan State in this category, as the Spartans boast the nation's No. 1 rush defense, allowing just 55 yards per game, while Michigan has been dealing with inconsistency on their offensive line.
I'll call for little brother to take down big brother for the fifth time in six years.
Pick: Michigan State 27, Michigan 20
[h=3]Georgia Bulldogs versus Florida Gators (in Jacksonville)[/h] Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
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<cite>Dale Zanine/USA TODAY Sports</cite>Can Georgia's Aaron Murray beat Florida for a third straight time?What a difference a year makes. Last year, these teams both came into this matchup ranked in the top 15. This year, they come in wounded losers of two straight games. Both are on the outside looking in on the Top 25 and the race for the SEC East Division title.
Three weeks ago, Georgia was in control not only in the SEC East but also had BCS Championship aspirations. Those all came crashing down thanks to injuries to many of their skill-position players that led to back-to-back losses to Missouri and Vanderbilt.
The Gators have not fared much better on the injury front, and it started with quarterback Jeff Driskel being injured in the Tennessee game. While backup Tyler Murphy won over Gators fans in his first couple of starts, he has not thrown a touchdown pass in the past two games and has been sacked 10 times during that span.
While dreams of a BCS championship and most likely an SEC championship are done for both of these teams, this game still means a lot to both fan bases. I will call for the Bulldogs, who welcome the return of running back Todd Gurley and also have the experience edge at quarterback with Aaron Murray, to get their third straight win over their rivals after getting dominated in the series for much of the previous 20 years.
Pick: Georgia 24, Florida 20
These two have not played since their classic 2010 encounter, with No. 10 Wisconsin beating No. 13 Iowa 31-30. The Badgers are the fresher team as this is just their third game in five weeks, while Iowa has played two physical teams in Michigan State and Ohio State and last week went to overtime with Northwestern. The key matchup in this game will be the powerful Badgers rushing attack led by Melvin Gordon, who already has 1,012 yards while averaging 9.5 yards per carry, against an Iowa defense that has allowed 200-plus rush yards in each of their past two games. Wisconsin flexes its Big Ten muscle yet again here.
Pick: Wisconsin 30, Iowa 14
[h=3]No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes at Purdue Boilermakers[/h] Saturday at noon ET
Purdue has actually taken the past two games played here and last year appeared to have pulled off another upset over the Buckeyes before Kenny Guiton led Ohio State to a 29-22 comeback overtime win. This year there will be no upset and no chance for a close game, as the Buckeyes finally got an impressive showing for the voters last week by handing Penn State its worst loss since 1899. Look for the Buckeyes to get their second straight comfortable win.
Pick: Ohio State 48, Purdue 10
[h=3]Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 14 South Carolina Gamecocks[/h] Saturday at 12:21 p.m. ET, ESPN3
South Carolina has won six straight in the series and return home after a three-game SEC road trip that saw them climb back in the race for the East title after an upset win over Missouri last week. The Bulldogs have not played on the road for seven weeks and have not been impressive in each of their past two games despite winning both. Although the Gamecocks still need a little help in the form of a Missouri loss, they make one more step to Atlanta here.
Pick: South Carolina 34, Mississippi State 17
[h=3]No. 11 Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks[/h] Saturday at 6 p.m. ET, ESPN2
The Razorbacks have won four of the past five meetings and are coming off a bye. These teams look to be going in opposite directions as Auburn has four straight wins and is starting to think BCS bowl, while Arkansas has five straight losses. However, this is the Hogs' last chance to make a possible run at a bowl, while the Tigers have been getting a lot of love after pulling the upset over Texas A&M two weeks ago. This one goes down to the wire.
Pick: Auburn 27, Arkansas 24
[h=3]Tennessee Volunteers at No. 9 Missouri Tigers[/h] Saturday at 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Last year, the Tigers got their only SEC road victory of the season by defeating the Volunteers in dramatic fashion, winning 51-48 in four overtimes. This year, they are coming off a devastating 27-24 loss to South Carolina in two overtimes after holding a 17-0 fourth-quarter lead. While they still control their own destiny in the SEC East, a win over the Gamecocks would have all but assured a trip to Atlanta, and you have to wonder what frame of mind they will be in. Tennessee will go with freshman quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who will be making his first start here. While I will call for the Tigers to get a bounce-back win, this one could go down to the wire like last year.
Pick: Missouri 30, Tennessee 24
