Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Each week during the 2014 college football season, I will offer my picks and scores for the biggest games in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Last week, my picks went 6-4 straight up and 3-7 against the spread. My overall record stands at 102-38 SU and 69-70-1 ATS.
Conference championship week sees all of the top seven teams in action as they try to make one final impression to the College Football Playoff committee that will lead to inclusion in the top four.
[h=3]Pac-12 championship game (Santa Clara, California)[/h] [h=3]No. 7 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 2 Oregon Ducks (-14.5)[/h] Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET
The Wildcats have pulled the outright upset in each of the past two meetings, and neither game has been a fluke. Last year, they won 42-16 as an 18-point home underdog, and this year they had a 49-yard edge on the road in Autzen Stadium while pulling off the biggest upset of the season in terms of the Vegas line as a 24-point underdog.
However, after that loss to Arizona earlier this year, the Ducks have won and covered seven games in a row and did play at this site earlier this year in a 59-41 win over California. QB Marcus Mariota is guaranteed at least a trip to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony as he has an incredible 36-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio (99-12 for his career) and has added 11 more touchdowns on the ground.
Arizona's 3-3-5 stack defense, led by All-American Scooby Wright III, matches up well with Oregon's spread offense, while the Oregon defense is allowing 483 yards per game on the road this year. I think the Ducks will get the straight-up win, but asking them to cover more than a two-touchdown spread against an Arizona team that has had their number recently is too tall of a task.
ATS pick: Arizona
Score: Oregon 41, Arizona 31
[h=3]No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats at No. 6 Baylor Bears (-7.5)[/h] Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Wildcats could be playing with revenge on their minds here. Two years ago they were unbeaten and ranked No. 2, but were beaten by an unranked Baylor team 52-24, as the Wildcats' QB at the time, Collin Klein, was less than 100 percent.
While the CFP committee has not given the Bears much respect, keep in mind that this is a Baylor team that beat Oklahoma on the road by 34, led Oklahoma State 42-14 and last week led Texas Tech 42-17 when QB Bryce Petty was injured. Petty has said all week that he expects to play, and my forecast reflects that this will be the case.
There is a huge advantage for the Bears when analyzing the home and away dichotomies. Baylor is plus-394 in YPG at home this year (just plus-86 YPG on road) while Kansas State is getting outgained by 43 YPG away from home (and is plus-161 YPG at home). K-State also trailed TCU 41-14 on the road this year before going 97 yards on five plays and scoring a touchdown with 1:36 left to make the final score more respectable. If Baylor is going to have any chance of making the playoff, the Bears need to win this one by double digits; I think they do so here.
Pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 41, Kansas State 28
[h=3]SEC championship game (Atlanta, Georgia)[/h] [h=3]No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-14.5) vs. No. 16 Missouri Tigers[/h] Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
The favorite in SEC championship games is 4-2-1 ATS, and the much stronger West division has won the past five games, going 4-1 ATS. The Tigers are playing in their second straight SEC championship game, while the Crimson Tide are making their ninth overall appearance.
The matchup to watch here is an Alabama offensive line that has given up just 11 sacks all year taking on a Missouri defense that leads the SEC with 40 sacks. Alabama's powerful run game, which is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, should be able to neutralize that Tiger pass rush, similar to what Georgia and Indiana did in their wins against Missouri earlier this year.
While it is noted that Missouri is 8-1 ATS as an underdog the past two years -- pulling the outright upset in all eight of their covers -- they have not beaten a single team all season that had a winning record in SEC play, and they do not own any wins over teams currently ranked in the Top 25 in the CFP rankings (the Tide have three). Look for the Tide to roll into the playoff as the No. 1 seed.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 34, Missouri 16
[h=3]ACC championship game (Charlotte, North Carolina)[/h] [h=3]No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (-4) vs. No. 11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets[/h] Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Florida State has won 13 of the past 15 meetings in this series, but the Yellow Jackets have covered each of the past four. These two last met in the 2012 ACC championship game, which was a 21-15 win for the Seminoles.
Georgia Tech has been playing like a top-five team in its past five games, with an average margin of victory of 23 points. Last week, the Yellow Jackets ran for 399 yards against a good Georgia defense and they are averaging an incredible 386 rushing YPG away from home this year.
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<cite>Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports</cite>Jameis Winston and the Seminoles are looking to maintain their undefeated streak.
On the other side, for the first time in school history, the Seminoles finished with back-to-back unbeaten regular seasons after yet another close win last week over Florida. They continue to find ways to win despite so much adversity, and last week became the first team in the FBS this year to win when its QB (Jameis Winston) threw four interceptions.
While Georgia Tech is a trendy upset pick this week (just like Florida last week), keep in mind that while Florida State is 3-9 ATS this year, the Seminoles are 2-0 ATS when the line is four or less. They also have much more big-game experience than the Yellow Jackets. I think they will feel disrespected yet again after falling to No. 4 in the CFP rankings this week -- despite having one of the longest win streaks in college football history. I'll call for them to punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff with a win in Charlotte.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 42, Georgia Tech 34
[h=3]Big Ten championship game (Indianapolis, Indiana)[/h] [h=3]No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers (-4) vs. No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes[/h] Saturday, 8:17 p.m. ET
The Buckeyes have had the Badgers' number as of late, as they have won and covered three straight in the series. More impressive is how the Ohio State run defense has fared against the vaunted Badgers ground attack, as they have held them to an average of 133 YPG (and 3.6 YPC) in the past three meetings -- a far cry from the Badgers' 252 rushing YPG (and 5.7 YPC) averages the past three years.
Naturally, the big storyline for this one is Ohio State QB Cardale Jones making his first career start against the No. 2 total defense in the country. However, that Badgers defense has allowed 24 PPG in the past three games after allowing just 14 PPG in the first nine. Even without J.T. Barrett at QB, a case could be made that the Buckeyes are still by far the most explosive offense the Badgers have faced all year.
Excluding his final season at Florida in 2010, Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer is on a 12-0 ATS run as an underdog dating back to his days at Utah; that includes a 3-0 mark as Ohio State's coach, as the Buckeyes have not only covered but pulled the outright upset in all three.
Jay Kornegay at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook said the Buckeyes would have been 4-point favorites had Barrett not gotten injured last week. You don't see 8-point line swings even for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in the NFL, and I will call for the "upset" here, despite the Buckeyes being ranked eight spots higher in the latest CFP rankings.
ATS Pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 31, Wisconsin 30
[h=3]Quick hitters[/h]
MAC championship game (Detroit, Michigan)
Northern Illinois Huskies (-7) vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
This is a rematch of last year's MAC championship, in which the Falcons upset the 12-0 Huskies, ending their dreams of appearing in back-to-back BCS bowls. Neither team is as good as last year's edition; Bowling Green is getting outgained by four YPG in MAC play while Northern Illinois is dead even, averaging 406 YPG on offense and allowing the same 406 YPG on defense in conference action. Last week, Bowling Green was coming off a big rivalry game against Toledo and rested some players in their loss to Ball State to get prepared for this. The underdog has covered six straight MAC championship games and Northern Illinois is 0-5 ATS in MAC title game appearances. I look for those streaks to continue.
ATS pick: Bowling Green
Score: Northern Illinois 34, Bowling Green 30
Iowa State Cyclones at No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs (-34)
Saturday, noon ET, ABC
Two years ago in this matchup, the Cyclones pulled the upset over the Horned Frogs -- that will not happen this year. TCU is plus-98 YPG in Big 12 action, while Iowa State is getting outgained by 154 YPG. The Cyclones' defense is allowing 5.9 yards per carry, 291 passing YPG and 552 total YPG in Big 12 play, and now faces the high-powered Horned Frogs offense that is averaging 47 PPG against their Big 12 foes. Despite the fact that Iowa State has lost just one game all year by more than 21 points, this is the Horned Frogs' last chance to impress the committee, and I think they make another statement.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 54, Iowa State 16
Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 20 Oklahoma Sooners (-20)
Saturday, noon ET, ESPN2
The Sooners have won 10 of the past 11 meetings in this series, and are on a 7-3-1 ATS run. This year in Big 12 play, Oklahoma is outgaining opponents by 70 YPG, while Oklahoma State is getting outgained by 128 YPG. The disparities are even greater when you look at their home and away performances. The Sooners are plus-140 YPG at home while Oklahoma State is getting outgained by 216 YPG on the road. Oklahoma State freshman Mason Rudolph will be making just his second start after they took the redshirt off him against Baylor, while his counterpart Cody Thomas has really struggled replacing the injured Trevor Knight, completing just 41 percent of his passes. While the Sooners clearly are the better team, large point spreads in rivalry games always concern me. The best play is to take the under, as Oklahoma will be conservative with a powerful ground game while Oklahoma State is averaging just 13.6 PPG during its five-game losing streak.
Pick: Under 60
Score: Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma State 17
Conference USA championship game (Huntington, West Virginia)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Marshall Thundering Herd (-12.5)
Saturday, noon ET, ESPN2
The question here is what frame of mind the Thundering Herd will be in after last week's 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky ended their unbeaten season and most likely shattered their major bowl hopes. Louisiana Tech comes in on the opposite end of the spectrum, fresh off a dominating 76-31 win over Rice. The Bulldogs have been just as impressive in C-USA play as the Herd, and remember that head coach Skip Holtz has experience in C-USA championship games -- winning two at East Carolina. While I think Herd quarterback Rakeem Cato will bounce back after throwing four interceptions last week, I'll gladly take the points here.
ATS pick: Louisiana Tech
Score: Marshall 40, Louisiana Tech 30
Mountain West championship game (Boise, Idaho)
Fresno State Bulldogs at No. 22 Boise State Broncos (-21)
Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
This is a rematch of an earlier meeting this year that the Broncos won 37-27. Boise State had a 24-12 first-down edge and also outgained the Bulldogs by 179 yards in that game, but a couple of key Bronco turnovers kept Fresno State in it. The Broncos are playing their best ball of the season: They have won their past six games by nine points or more, and last week hung 50 points on the Mountain West conference's best defense in Utah State. Boise State quarterback Grant Hedrick has rebounded after a shaky start, with a 17-4 TD-to-INT ratio in the past seven games, and the defense has allowed just 248 YPG in the past two. I would have originally laid the points with the home team here, but the line has ballooned after opening at 17, and I will call this one right at the line.
ATS pick: Pass
Score: Boise State 48, Fresno State 27
Last week, my picks went 6-4 straight up and 3-7 against the spread. My overall record stands at 102-38 SU and 69-70-1 ATS.
Conference championship week sees all of the top seven teams in action as they try to make one final impression to the College Football Playoff committee that will lead to inclusion in the top four.
[h=3]Pac-12 championship game (Santa Clara, California)[/h] [h=3]No. 7 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 2 Oregon Ducks (-14.5)[/h] Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET
The Wildcats have pulled the outright upset in each of the past two meetings, and neither game has been a fluke. Last year, they won 42-16 as an 18-point home underdog, and this year they had a 49-yard edge on the road in Autzen Stadium while pulling off the biggest upset of the season in terms of the Vegas line as a 24-point underdog.
However, after that loss to Arizona earlier this year, the Ducks have won and covered seven games in a row and did play at this site earlier this year in a 59-41 win over California. QB Marcus Mariota is guaranteed at least a trip to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony as he has an incredible 36-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio (99-12 for his career) and has added 11 more touchdowns on the ground.
Arizona's 3-3-5 stack defense, led by All-American Scooby Wright III, matches up well with Oregon's spread offense, while the Oregon defense is allowing 483 yards per game on the road this year. I think the Ducks will get the straight-up win, but asking them to cover more than a two-touchdown spread against an Arizona team that has had their number recently is too tall of a task.
ATS pick: Arizona
Score: Oregon 41, Arizona 31
[h=3]No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats at No. 6 Baylor Bears (-7.5)[/h] Saturday, 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Wildcats could be playing with revenge on their minds here. Two years ago they were unbeaten and ranked No. 2, but were beaten by an unranked Baylor team 52-24, as the Wildcats' QB at the time, Collin Klein, was less than 100 percent.
While the CFP committee has not given the Bears much respect, keep in mind that this is a Baylor team that beat Oklahoma on the road by 34, led Oklahoma State 42-14 and last week led Texas Tech 42-17 when QB Bryce Petty was injured. Petty has said all week that he expects to play, and my forecast reflects that this will be the case.
There is a huge advantage for the Bears when analyzing the home and away dichotomies. Baylor is plus-394 in YPG at home this year (just plus-86 YPG on road) while Kansas State is getting outgained by 43 YPG away from home (and is plus-161 YPG at home). K-State also trailed TCU 41-14 on the road this year before going 97 yards on five plays and scoring a touchdown with 1:36 left to make the final score more respectable. If Baylor is going to have any chance of making the playoff, the Bears need to win this one by double digits; I think they do so here.
Pick: Baylor
Score: Baylor 41, Kansas State 28
[h=3]SEC championship game (Atlanta, Georgia)[/h] [h=3]No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (-14.5) vs. No. 16 Missouri Tigers[/h] Saturday, 4:00 p.m. ET
The favorite in SEC championship games is 4-2-1 ATS, and the much stronger West division has won the past five games, going 4-1 ATS. The Tigers are playing in their second straight SEC championship game, while the Crimson Tide are making their ninth overall appearance.
The matchup to watch here is an Alabama offensive line that has given up just 11 sacks all year taking on a Missouri defense that leads the SEC with 40 sacks. Alabama's powerful run game, which is averaging 5.1 yards per carry, should be able to neutralize that Tiger pass rush, similar to what Georgia and Indiana did in their wins against Missouri earlier this year.
While it is noted that Missouri is 8-1 ATS as an underdog the past two years -- pulling the outright upset in all eight of their covers -- they have not beaten a single team all season that had a winning record in SEC play, and they do not own any wins over teams currently ranked in the Top 25 in the CFP rankings (the Tide have three). Look for the Tide to roll into the playoff as the No. 1 seed.
ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 34, Missouri 16
[h=3]ACC championship game (Charlotte, North Carolina)[/h] [h=3]No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (-4) vs. No. 11 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets[/h] Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC
Florida State has won 13 of the past 15 meetings in this series, but the Yellow Jackets have covered each of the past four. These two last met in the 2012 ACC championship game, which was a 21-15 win for the Seminoles.
Georgia Tech has been playing like a top-five team in its past five games, with an average margin of victory of 23 points. Last week, the Yellow Jackets ran for 399 yards against a good Georgia defense and they are averaging an incredible 386 rushing YPG away from home this year.
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<cite>Tim Heitman/USA TODAY Sports</cite>Jameis Winston and the Seminoles are looking to maintain their undefeated streak.On the other side, for the first time in school history, the Seminoles finished with back-to-back unbeaten regular seasons after yet another close win last week over Florida. They continue to find ways to win despite so much adversity, and last week became the first team in the FBS this year to win when its QB (Jameis Winston) threw four interceptions.
While Georgia Tech is a trendy upset pick this week (just like Florida last week), keep in mind that while Florida State is 3-9 ATS this year, the Seminoles are 2-0 ATS when the line is four or less. They also have much more big-game experience than the Yellow Jackets. I think they will feel disrespected yet again after falling to No. 4 in the CFP rankings this week -- despite having one of the longest win streaks in college football history. I'll call for them to punch their ticket to the College Football Playoff with a win in Charlotte.
ATS pick: Florida State
Score: Florida State 42, Georgia Tech 34
[h=3]Big Ten championship game (Indianapolis, Indiana)[/h] [h=3]No. 13 Wisconsin Badgers (-4) vs. No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes[/h] Saturday, 8:17 p.m. ET
The Buckeyes have had the Badgers' number as of late, as they have won and covered three straight in the series. More impressive is how the Ohio State run defense has fared against the vaunted Badgers ground attack, as they have held them to an average of 133 YPG (and 3.6 YPC) in the past three meetings -- a far cry from the Badgers' 252 rushing YPG (and 5.7 YPC) averages the past three years.
Naturally, the big storyline for this one is Ohio State QB Cardale Jones making his first career start against the No. 2 total defense in the country. However, that Badgers defense has allowed 24 PPG in the past three games after allowing just 14 PPG in the first nine. Even without J.T. Barrett at QB, a case could be made that the Buckeyes are still by far the most explosive offense the Badgers have faced all year.
Excluding his final season at Florida in 2010, Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer is on a 12-0 ATS run as an underdog dating back to his days at Utah; that includes a 3-0 mark as Ohio State's coach, as the Buckeyes have not only covered but pulled the outright upset in all three.
Jay Kornegay at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook said the Buckeyes would have been 4-point favorites had Barrett not gotten injured last week. You don't see 8-point line swings even for Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in the NFL, and I will call for the "upset" here, despite the Buckeyes being ranked eight spots higher in the latest CFP rankings.
ATS Pick: Ohio State
Score: Ohio State 31, Wisconsin 30
[h=3]Quick hitters[/h]
MAC championship game (Detroit, Michigan)
Northern Illinois Huskies (-7) vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
This is a rematch of last year's MAC championship, in which the Falcons upset the 12-0 Huskies, ending their dreams of appearing in back-to-back BCS bowls. Neither team is as good as last year's edition; Bowling Green is getting outgained by four YPG in MAC play while Northern Illinois is dead even, averaging 406 YPG on offense and allowing the same 406 YPG on defense in conference action. Last week, Bowling Green was coming off a big rivalry game against Toledo and rested some players in their loss to Ball State to get prepared for this. The underdog has covered six straight MAC championship games and Northern Illinois is 0-5 ATS in MAC title game appearances. I look for those streaks to continue.
ATS pick: Bowling Green
Score: Northern Illinois 34, Bowling Green 30
Iowa State Cyclones at No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs (-34)
Saturday, noon ET, ABC
Two years ago in this matchup, the Cyclones pulled the upset over the Horned Frogs -- that will not happen this year. TCU is plus-98 YPG in Big 12 action, while Iowa State is getting outgained by 154 YPG. The Cyclones' defense is allowing 5.9 yards per carry, 291 passing YPG and 552 total YPG in Big 12 play, and now faces the high-powered Horned Frogs offense that is averaging 47 PPG against their Big 12 foes. Despite the fact that Iowa State has lost just one game all year by more than 21 points, this is the Horned Frogs' last chance to impress the committee, and I think they make another statement.
ATS pick: TCU
Score: TCU 54, Iowa State 16
Oklahoma State Cowboys at No. 20 Oklahoma Sooners (-20)
Saturday, noon ET, ESPN2
The Sooners have won 10 of the past 11 meetings in this series, and are on a 7-3-1 ATS run. This year in Big 12 play, Oklahoma is outgaining opponents by 70 YPG, while Oklahoma State is getting outgained by 128 YPG. The disparities are even greater when you look at their home and away performances. The Sooners are plus-140 YPG at home while Oklahoma State is getting outgained by 216 YPG on the road. Oklahoma State freshman Mason Rudolph will be making just his second start after they took the redshirt off him against Baylor, while his counterpart Cody Thomas has really struggled replacing the injured Trevor Knight, completing just 41 percent of his passes. While the Sooners clearly are the better team, large point spreads in rivalry games always concern me. The best play is to take the under, as Oklahoma will be conservative with a powerful ground game while Oklahoma State is averaging just 13.6 PPG during its five-game losing streak.
Pick: Under 60
Score: Oklahoma 38, Oklahoma State 17
Conference USA championship game (Huntington, West Virginia)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Marshall Thundering Herd (-12.5)
Saturday, noon ET, ESPN2
The question here is what frame of mind the Thundering Herd will be in after last week's 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky ended their unbeaten season and most likely shattered their major bowl hopes. Louisiana Tech comes in on the opposite end of the spectrum, fresh off a dominating 76-31 win over Rice. The Bulldogs have been just as impressive in C-USA play as the Herd, and remember that head coach Skip Holtz has experience in C-USA championship games -- winning two at East Carolina. While I think Herd quarterback Rakeem Cato will bounce back after throwing four interceptions last week, I'll gladly take the points here.
ATS pick: Louisiana Tech
Score: Marshall 40, Louisiana Tech 30
Mountain West championship game (Boise, Idaho)
Fresno State Bulldogs at No. 22 Boise State Broncos (-21)
Saturday, 10:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2
This is a rematch of an earlier meeting this year that the Broncos won 37-27. Boise State had a 24-12 first-down edge and also outgained the Bulldogs by 179 yards in that game, but a couple of key Bronco turnovers kept Fresno State in it. The Broncos are playing their best ball of the season: They have won their past six games by nine points or more, and last week hung 50 points on the Mountain West conference's best defense in Utah State. Boise State quarterback Grant Hedrick has rebounded after a shaky start, with a 17-4 TD-to-INT ratio in the past seven games, and the defense has allowed just 248 YPG in the past two. I would have originally laid the points with the home team here, but the line has ballooned after opening at 17, and I will call this one right at the line.
ATS pick: Pass
Score: Boise State 48, Fresno State 27
