South Florida @ Rutgers

spanishshark

spanishshark

Youngest guy on the forum
20-16 YTD
20-15 ATS
0-1 Totals

Im placing this bet in early because I just cant wait anymore. South Florida going to Rutgers and only being favored by 3 is a gift IMO. So what that Rutgers has Rice? The whole freakin team is Rice. If Rice gets shut down then what? Listen to me, Rutgers hasnt played a fast defense like USF has this year. USF is for real guys, dont get fooled. This is a quote from USF nose tackle Richard Clebert who played against Ray Rice last year:

"I want to play against Ray Rice, but it's not just him," Clebert said. "You take away Ray Rice's offensive line and who is Ray Rice? No one."

That is pretty much the mentality that this entire USF team has this year. They are concentrating on one game at a time and doing what it takes to win it. Do they win by 3? Are you kidding me? They would have to lose the game and I dont see that happening. I mean, come on, I've heard the arguments that Rutgers is tough at home and all that jazz but who are they tough against? Cincinnati ? Maryland? Norfolk State? Gimme a break.

USF -3 money;
 
I think you know which way I am going to play :smiley_acbe:

The only problem is how much to put on it. Home dogs on Thursday nights are money but I think this is a different situation. You summed it up perfectly the mentality of this team. If they get up by 10-14 points the game is over because I can't see Rutgers scoring much on this defense. GL to us. :cheers:
 
ATP.....As far as how much to put on them I would just go your normal bet. I've learned over the years that going heavier because it feels good to you doesnt always work. Case in point was that LSU game. Luckily I had my normal bet on that one. USF should easily cover here, emphasis on the word should. Good luck to us tonight brotha :cheers:
 
I don't know if it is just my heart telling me so but I feel something wierd is about to happen down in Central Jersey Thursday night..
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
I don't know if it is just my heart telling me so but I feel something wierd is about to happen down in Central Jersey Thursday night..
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Once again I don't bet with my heart. This team is for real. I will tell you what is going to happen. USF will prove to Kirk Herbstreit that they belong in the top 2 or even the #1 ranking. I love how people continue to bash USF on their ranking. That just adds more fuel to the fire. I said it earlier in the week: if USF beats Rutgers they will run the table. Rutgers won't be a pushover but this isn't the same Rutgers team as last year.
 
AgainstThePublic said:
Once again I don't bet with my heart. This team is for real. I will tell you what is going to happen. USF will prove to Kirk Herbstreit that they belong in the top 2 or even the #1 ranking. I love how people continue to bash USF on their ranking. That just adds more fuel to the fire. I said it earlier in the week: if USF beats Rutgers they will run the table. Rutgers won't be a pushover but this isn't the same Rutgers team as last year.
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I am not a RU fan at all, despite being from NJ. Being an RU fan is the trendy thing to do now-a-days around here but I use to go watch their miserbale games when they sucked and 10-15k would show up because they were so bad. My sister was in school there so we use to make the treck to seem them play vs the likes of Mike Vick and company. So I don't root for them much and thought they were overrated coming into the yr.

My issue in this game, which I am not betting, is that home teams on Thursday night are like 11-3 so besides the X'S and O's there seems to be some travel issues for teams, USF is good, don't get me wrong but they are not unbeatable. They needed a +5 turnover margin to win on the road vs. Auburn. Going on the road when you have a giant target on your back is tough, especially when you are in unchartered territory with a program making their own history everytime they step on the field. I think this is going to be an ugly game where the home team and the points might be enough to pull something out. Not to mention, their field goal kicker sucks under pressure
 
I like the pick shark ... if they can stop WVU's run game, why the hell can't they stop Rutgers'??? The only reason not to unload on this is the home dog on Thursday night angle, but USF is still fighting for respect. I love Herbstreit, but it's really disappointing that he doesn't respect USF yet. He said USC shouldn't have dropped out of the top 10 last week also. If you only base your rankings on a team's recruits, then what's the point of playing the games? USC has no heart, USF is all heart ... I don't think they'll be overcome by the atmosphere in Jersey ... GL
 
with you on this one SS. THis is the most balanced team in the country imo...but crazy shit happens every week eh?
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
I am not a RU fan at all, despite being from NJ. Being an RU fan is the trendy thing to do now-a-days around here but I use to go watch their miserbale games when they sucked and 10-15k would show up because they were so bad. My sister was in school there so we use to make the treck to seem them play vs the likes of Mike Vick and company. So I don't root for them much and thought they were overrated coming into the yr.

My issue in this game, which I am not betting, is that home teams on Thursday night are like 11-3 so besides the X'S and O's there seems to be some travel issues for teams, USF is good, don't get me wrong but they are not unbeatable. They needed a +5 turnover margin to win on the road vs. Auburn. Going on the road when you have a giant target on your back is tough, especially when you are in unchartered territory with a program making their own history everytime they step on the field. I think this is going to be an ugly game where the home team and the points might be enough to pull something out. Not to mention, their field goal kicker sucks under pressure
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I agree with your angle. Home dogs are money on Thursday night. Grothe will once again be key to USF winning this game. He needs to be smart with the football and limit his mistakes. The defense will be there and they have to limit Rice and his yards. USF definitely has a target on their back. The reason I am so high on this team is coaching. Leavitt is the difference maker to me. You don't need to have a great team but an excellent motivator. He has motivated his guys to keep focused on the task at hand (which is one game at a time). Yes USF is in unchartered waters both going on the road tomorrow night as well as being #2. The difference between LSU, OK, USC, FL, etc... is that USF has never been in this position which I love because they realize that they may not ever be in this position again. Therefore they realize what is a stake each and every week and that every game is their own personal national championship. That is why I feel that if they win tomorrow night they run the table. If they lose then they lose and it's still been a great season. :smiley_acbe:
 
GL Against the Public..

I sort of like the season USF is having but the other part of me is dying for all 10 of the top 10 to have 1 loss. I guess if anyone runs the table, I could accept it being USF.

You make an interesting point, although it is unchartered territory, this is not something they will take for granted and you are right, Leavitt is a hell of a coach.
 
The line moving down : -2 now ? Did Dr.Bob's opinion cause the movement ! LOL...

Once again I'm on your USF's money train ! Shark

:7_5_142:
 
Bandwagon, I will tell you why they could stop WVA but won't be able to stop Rutgers.

1.WVA played without Pat White for 2 1/2 quarters in that game. His replacement was poor, completing just 55% of his passes, getting sacked thrice, and throwing 2 picks. Take away his long run of 27, and he averaged just 2ypc.

2. Offensive style. WVA runs a spread offense with the triple option. They beat slower, bigger defenses, and struggle against those that attack with speed such as SoFlo. Rutgers plays with a Pro Set, out of the I-formation mostly. They run Rice mostly between the tackles and with the stretch play, but I imagine they will avoid that against SoFlo.

3. Battle in the trenches. Average size of SoFlo D-lineman: 6'3 267.
Rutgers O-lineman: 6'6 308. Not only does Rutgers have a decent size advantage against USF along the line, but the replacement of Kevin Haslam by 5-star recruit Anthony Davis did wonders for the run game last week. Rice, who was held to less than 100 yards by Cincy and Md broke out for almost 200 yards and 3 scores.

4. History. Rice owns SoFlo. Clebert is going to pay for opening his uneducated mouth. Boy do his comments make him sound like a backwoods yokel.
 
Not sure yet, but I'm not crazy about your logic. Different situations and different games dictate lines. I think the fact that Rutgers lost at home to Maryland and Cincy would scare me off of this team, but I think the line is right. As a matter of fact, i think if they had managed to win that Cincy game, they would be a PK or favored in this game.

Going to look at this some more, but really not figured out on a side just yet.
 
last i saw ucf and kevin smith run a similar style of rush attack as rutgers. check out the box score of that one .... this usf team can stop the run, of that i am pretty damn sure. If someone is betting rutgers they really need to either believe tht teel can get the job done or that south florida will be unable to score on rutgers .... counting on a huge rushing day from rice looks like suicide on paper. of course ul looked good on paper vs syracuse ... michigan looked good on paper vs appy state, etc etc ad nauseum
 
J Galt said:
As a matter of fact, i think if they had managed to win that Cincy game, they would be a PK or favored in this game.
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Galt, when was the last time you saw an unranked team be favored to the #2 in the country? Come on man, you're kidding right? :shake:
 
This line is giving a ton of respect to Rutgers, basically calling for the upset. I don't claim to know a whole hell of a lot about either team however I did watch the whole game where Cinci went into the Scarlet Knights house and whooped em for 4 quarters. Remember its still Rutgers football! Gotta put a lot of stock in that Auburn win for the Bulls and they have been tested and responded on 2 different occassions. Whats Rutgers shown this year?? If this game was in SoFla in the same spot it would be Bulls -8. Give me the better QB and the better D to sneak out of there with atleast a fg win.
 
B.A.R Health to you too buddy :cheers:

Kmacc My sentiments exactly. Alot of respect for Rutgers is right, which also translates to alot of disrespect for the Bulls. I hope the books lose their asses on this one. hehe :cheers:
 
man originally going into this game i was all over the Rutgers ML, after capping this I really do think I like USF, however i'm torn on what to play

and this game has "bet me " all over it
 
chopz33 said:
man originally going into this game i was all over the Rutgers ML, after capping this I really do think I like USF, however i'm torn on what to play

and this game has "bet me " all over it
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When I pounded my numbers I came out with USF - 17. I think Dr. Shark is better than Dr. Bob but thats our secret :36_11_6:
 
spanishshark said:
When I pounded my numbers I came out with USF - 17. I think Dr. Shark is better than Dr. Bob but thats our secret :36_11_6:
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LMAO :36_11_6:

Almost game time and I won't be able to do anything at work today. Here is some additional infor amtion for some guys that are on the fence with this game.

USF has faced the #2 rushing offense (WVU) and the nation's #1 rusher (UCF's Kevin Smith). They held both guys to next to nothing in rushing yards. Now they face the #7 rusher in Rice who was the last back to rush for over 100 yards against USF. Do you really think USF will let Rice beat them again? I don't think so. Leavitt will have a game plan to stop or at least contain Rice just like he did against WVU and UCF. This is where Teel will be the X factor tonight. He stinks they lose, he shines they could possibly pull the upset. I am telling you guys, I have watched this USF team and they have all kinds of talent on the defensive side of the ball.
Rutgers is 1-6 at home against top 10 teams only beating Louisville(#3 at the time) last season 28-25. The Bulls are 8-2 when playing a team they lost to the previous year.

As for Clebert's comments, it seems to be that he is praising the offensive line of Rutgers. Not bashing Ray Rice. Just some more thoughts for you guys on the fence. GL.
 
I am leaning USF. And I want them to run the table. But before you coronate them kings of the defensive world, where was their defense against FLORIDA ATLANTIC? They have done their job up to this point, but let's not confuse this defense with the 85 Bears. They are the clear beneficiaries of many upsets, paving the way for their ranking.

Like I said, I want them to win. I like them. But if anyone thinks this is the 2nd best team in the country they are mistaken.
 
Capaholic said:
I am leaning USF. And I want them to run the table. But before you coronate them kings of the defensive world, where was their defense against FLORIDA ATLANTIC? They have done their job up to this point, but let's not confuse this defense with the 85 Bears. They are the clear beneficiaries of many upsets, paving the way for their ranking.

Like I said, I want them to win. I like them. But if anyone thinks this is the 2nd best team in the country they are mistaken.
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I agree and disagree. I agree that they aren't the 2nd best team in the country. They are the BEST team in the country at this moment. Ohio St. surely isn't the best in the country at the moment. While I am a USF homer, I am also a realist. Each team in the country schedules patsies so the schedule argument is a tough one. My point is: nobody told OK to lose to Colorado AT OK, or USC to lose to STANFORD AT HOME, or APP ST. to beat Michigan AT MICHIGAN, or CAL to lose AT HOME to Oregon St. USF has taken care of business up to this point and that is all you can ask. The best teams in the country don't lose to crapbag teams mentioned above no matter what the name of your school is.

The FAU game was a letdown spot for them. They had just played WVU 10 days earlier. Just like next week when they go to UCONN. That will be another sandwich/letdown game that IMO will be almost as difficult as tonight's game. Every defense in the country has had a letdown at some point this season. Let me ask you this: If USF wins tonight do you still think they aren't the #1 or #2 team in the country after they beat Auburn at Auburn when Auburn was ranked, they beat WVU (#5 at the time) for the 2nd year in a row at home, smashed a UCF team that hung with TX until the last few minutes of the game and beat Rutgers at Rutgers? Just curious in your response. GL with whatever you play.
 
AgainstThePublic said:
Yes USF is in unchartered waters both going on the road tomorrow night as well as being #2. The difference between LSU, OK, USC, FL, etc... is that USF has never been in this position which I love because they realize that they may not ever be in this position again. Therefore they realize what is a stake each and every week and that every game is their own personal national championship. That is why I feel that if they win tomorrow night they run the table. If they lose then they lose and it's still been a great season. :smiley_acbe:
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Amen. Being the first time ranked at all, much less that high, and knowing that they possibly wont be here again. Thats alot of motivation. No let down here tonight !
 
spanish,

Ive been keeping an eye on most of your threads this season, and have agreed with most of your sides. Im def with you on tonight. GO USF!!!!

whats better than thursday night football??? esp. 2 points seperating the two teams.

BOL:prayer
 
Been going back and forth on this game all week. The fact that the line keeps moving towards Rutgers means I'll probably take USF.

My take on the game is this. Both teams have been inconsistant all year long. Even as recently as last week both teams played 2 entirely different halves. Rutgers found themselves down 14-0 to lowly Syracuse and then rattled off 38 straight and totally controlled the 2H. USF struggled against a decent team (surely better than Cuse) in UCF and offensively they struggled in the 1H as well before going bonkers in the 2H.

Looking at the defenses it is quite apparent the USF defense is much stronger. They're not the near the Top 10 in the nation because of flukes. Despite being small, there's a lot of speed and the secondary is one of best in the nation. It should be a great test for the USF defense going up against a strong Rutgers OL, that rarely gives up sacks. Sorry, but I have to disagree that just because Rutgers is bigger doesn't mean they won't struggle with the speed of the Bulls.

This game really comes down to QB's in my opinion and the Rutgers defense. Mike Teel vs. Matt Grothe. Ray Rice will be a factor and if Rutgers can run against the USF front 7 (100+ yards) Rutgers will have a great chance to win at home and get back into a new years day bowl. If Grothe can mix up his running and passing USF wins by DD against a very inconsistant Rutgers defense.

1 thing I'm a little worried about is if the weather gets cold in New Jersey tonight, how will that effect the USF team. My warm weather schools don't like playing in the cold theory.

BUT, if USF plays like they did last week in the 2H, and Rutgers plays like they did in the 2H I still like USF because a great defense will beat a very good offense the majority of the time.
 
Alright, again, no money on this game but some devils advocate and some thoughts from the otherside.


1) Home teams dominating Thursday nights. Both underdogs and favorites are winning these mid-week games and I think school/ travel has to have some kind of impact here. No offical numbers but home teams are around 11-3 on the yr SU.

2) USF has 2 big wins, much bigger than any wins RU has but they won those games by forcing 11 turnovers. Now turnovers are certainly part of the game and credit goes to USF for forcing them and RU will obviously be undone if they do not take care of the ball but both of those games were battles, despite USF winning the turnover margin in both. RU will stress the importance of taking care of the ball tonight.

3) USF stopped the rush game of WVU but that to me is because WVU style of offense plays to their type of defense. RU will try to use a power game and superior size along the OL which will negate the speed of USF while WVU tried to get wide on a team that was just as fast, if not faster than them.

4) Whoever is more productive on 1st down will likely win this game. I don't think either team is a true threat to kill you passing. Grothe has come up with some big plays, mainly because he escaped the pocket and Teel is no Joe Montana. USF is touting the best cover tandem in the land right now so they will be tested for sure by Britt and Underwood. They key will to have 2nd and 5 rather than 2nd and 8

5) Field goals... In a game that I expect to be close, this is crucial. USF kicker can't shit his pants and go 1/5 in this one. He is iffy at best.


GL guys, should be a fun one to watch. I just have a feeling RU gets it done on their homefield but my feelings have been anything but right lately.
 
Another tidbit here, which I think is important, 3rd down offense and defense.

Rutgers converts 46.8% of 3rd downs (17th in nation), USF allows 24% of 3rd down conversions (2nd in nation).

USF converts 37.4% of 3rd downs (70th in nation), Rutgers allows 34.3% of 3rd down conversions (35th in nation).
 
bjorks said:
if USF plays like they did last week in the 2H, and Rutgers plays like they did in the 2H I still like USF because a great defense will beat a very good offense the majority of the time.
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And the thing is, USF's offense isnt that shaby. Grothe is one hell of an up and coming quarterback.

Thanks for comments bjorks :cheers:
 
ETG....I really appreciate all of your thoughts in this game. If there is one thing we both agree on is that this game will indeed be a fun game to watch. Thanks for inputs bro.. :cheers:
 
i think what everythingthatsgreen about the +5 turnover margin in the auburn game should be taken into consideration with this USF squad as the bulls also benefited greatly from WVU shooting themselves in the foot on numerous occasions in that game. living in sw florida, i've seen every USF game this year, and i must admit that the breaks have always fallen in USF's way thus far. i say that ends tonight. i don't think rutgers will hand USF the ball. these jersey boys are out for redemption tonight imo.

rutgers +2 (i think)
 
One last thing to add.

If I did not get my ass raped on every total I've bet this yr, I would take the 1st half and game under. I see this thing being 21-17, 20-17, 21-20, 23-20, not 54 total points
 
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