S
SoonerBS
Guest
I'll be adding plays in here from now until Friday evening so check back. After last week's debacle, I had decided I was going to just play dogs this week. But, then, someone reminded me that if you are winning all season long and suffer a losing weekend, you don't stop what has caused you to win consistently and totally change the way you cap. I agreed. Last week was a very different type of week and I'm not going to allow the fact that a team can have a 10 point lead going into the last 3:00 of play and totally lose the game and the cover!! :hairout: On a positive note, with help and encouragement from Hawaiiguy, I was able to hit my first ever "middle" on the Hawaii/Nevada game. :cheers: I looked back over my plays from last week and I decided I would make the same plays again if given the chance. 9-10, last week's plays would have cashed. Instead, I lost 2 UNITS overall.
So, on to this week:
Colorado/Air Force UNDER 47 (1 UNIT) -- This play tonight is the first of many TOTALS I will be playing this week. One of my winning plays last week was the Air Force/Navy UNDER. The reason it was successful was because it pitted two teams that were run oriented and defenses that were efficient at stopping the run. This week, we have two games like this again: Air Force/Colorado St and Navy/Rutgers. I will be playing them both for 1 UNIT a piece.
I don't like the ESPN game tonight between two ACC teams, so I'll pass on that one. I am thinking that 44 points is too many points to be giving any team this time of the year -- even Temple -- but have not layed any money on it. I may before gametime . . . . .
LSU -14 in 1st Half (2.5 UNITS)-- LSU is coming off a disappointing loss to Florida last week and has now achieved 2 conference losses. They cannot afford to lose another conference loss for any chance to stay in the conference race and for an opportunity to get in a good bowl game. They will play host to a Kentucky team that is beat up and missing some players. If this were being played at kentucky, I wouldn't be making a play on it at all, but last week's game against S. Carolina showed that Kentucky's young talent is still not up to playing competitively in the SEC. I'm trying to guard against a backdoor cover here by Kentucky, so I'm playing the first half only.
West Virginia -13.5 in 1st Half (2.5 UNITS) -- Look at JumpOnBoard's thread to find all the details you need to know for this play.
Bowling Green -10.5 (2 UNITS) -- This is strictly a "numbers" play. As far as I know, both these teams appear to be healthy. This is Bowling Green's Homecoming game and they have chosen wisely playing the worse team in the MAC. ALL of the trends favor Bowling Green as they have completely dominated E. Michigan in this series. Now, it's a "numbers" play because three of the sets of Power ratings I use show Bowling Green to be anywhere between a -16 to -25 point favorite here! This play is flying under the radar guys . . . . . . . .
Hawaii -4 (2.5 UNITS) -- Again, all you have to do is read Hawaiiguy's thread on this play to learn all you need to know. Whenever Hawaiiguy is playing BIG on his team, I'm going along for the ride on the money train . . . .
Mich/PSU UNDER 42.5 (3 UNITS) -- This is the biggest bet on my card so far this week, along with Army. HUNTDOG and Big Al have commented a great deal about this play in their threads and I agree. Both these teams have great defenses, Michigan's top TD producer will not play, and the weather will be very cold and possibly messy. All the proper ingredients for a good under. I bought this up above 7 TDs for -140.
Army +5.5 (3 UNITS) -- Army is coming off a Div 1A loss to Rice and a Div 2A BIG win over VMI which was also their homecoming. I agree with redbearde that this line is making Army a dog simply because of what Rice did to them two weeks ago. There's two things to remember about that game: Rice is a team that is implementing a new offensive scheme and they will get better as the season goes along, AND they whole team was riding an emotional high as they had dedicated that game to their lost teammate. Guys, this is one of the best Army teams we have seen in quite a while. And, here's a capping angle that is lost on Sportsnut -- UCONN SUCKS REALLY BAD!!! Now, back to something Sportsnut would understand -- my three sets of Power ratings have Army favored in this game! Army will likely win this one SU!!
Texas -27 (2.5 UNITS) -- Guys, I was considering all week that this game was a play on Baylor or no play. Texas is in a classic "sandwich spot" here after playing Oklahoma last week and Nebraska next week. Now, they play a team that they have whipped the living daylights out of in forever in this series. I could see them becoming complacent and allowing a Baylor backdoor. BUT, then, a Baylor cornerback had to shoot off his mouth about Texas this week and give them a reason to want to pummel Baylor again in this series. This is all you need to read for a play here: http://www.baylorfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=110593http://www.baylorfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=110593http://www.baylorfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=110593
Nebraska -8 (2.5 UNITS) -- I'm not going to allow the fact that Oklahoma State sucks on the road scare me off a play I think is good value! Nebraska is the better team and should win this by 2 TDs or more here. I know they have Texas next week, but they also know they can't overlook K-State in this road game. Oklahoma State was winning the game SU by 10 with 3:00 minutes left in the game (ok, I already mentioned this once, dammit) and they ended up losing! Prince is playing his recruits over Snyder's and i don't think it's a good idea. It will sting him here against a much better defensive team than Okie State.
Florida State -20.5 (2.5 UNITS) -- I'm not impressed with this ACC conference this year at all. Florida State with 2 losses is still in the run for the championship, so this team is not likely to lay down. Bowden Jr. is still catching flack over his offensive playcalling and Weatherford is starting to take the criticism personally about his QBing (I've read articles stating as much all week.) FSU needs a BIG offensive performance and Duke "blew their wad" last week against Alabama. I'm looking for an ass-whipping here in this game with Duke on the receiving end.
Here's some other TOTALS I am playing a UNIT on this week:
Arkie St/Memphis UNDER 44
Oregon/UCLA OVER 55
Texas Tech/Colorado OVER 47.5
Rutgers/Navy UNDER 45.5
Good luck this week, guys!!
So, on to this week:
Colorado/Air Force UNDER 47 (1 UNIT) -- This play tonight is the first of many TOTALS I will be playing this week. One of my winning plays last week was the Air Force/Navy UNDER. The reason it was successful was because it pitted two teams that were run oriented and defenses that were efficient at stopping the run. This week, we have two games like this again: Air Force/Colorado St and Navy/Rutgers. I will be playing them both for 1 UNIT a piece.
I don't like the ESPN game tonight between two ACC teams, so I'll pass on that one. I am thinking that 44 points is too many points to be giving any team this time of the year -- even Temple -- but have not layed any money on it. I may before gametime . . . . .
LSU -14 in 1st Half (2.5 UNITS)-- LSU is coming off a disappointing loss to Florida last week and has now achieved 2 conference losses. They cannot afford to lose another conference loss for any chance to stay in the conference race and for an opportunity to get in a good bowl game. They will play host to a Kentucky team that is beat up and missing some players. If this were being played at kentucky, I wouldn't be making a play on it at all, but last week's game against S. Carolina showed that Kentucky's young talent is still not up to playing competitively in the SEC. I'm trying to guard against a backdoor cover here by Kentucky, so I'm playing the first half only.
West Virginia -13.5 in 1st Half (2.5 UNITS) -- Look at JumpOnBoard's thread to find all the details you need to know for this play.
Bowling Green -10.5 (2 UNITS) -- This is strictly a "numbers" play. As far as I know, both these teams appear to be healthy. This is Bowling Green's Homecoming game and they have chosen wisely playing the worse team in the MAC. ALL of the trends favor Bowling Green as they have completely dominated E. Michigan in this series. Now, it's a "numbers" play because three of the sets of Power ratings I use show Bowling Green to be anywhere between a -16 to -25 point favorite here! This play is flying under the radar guys . . . . . . . .
Hawaii -4 (2.5 UNITS) -- Again, all you have to do is read Hawaiiguy's thread on this play to learn all you need to know. Whenever Hawaiiguy is playing BIG on his team, I'm going along for the ride on the money train . . . .
Mich/PSU UNDER 42.5 (3 UNITS) -- This is the biggest bet on my card so far this week, along with Army. HUNTDOG and Big Al have commented a great deal about this play in their threads and I agree. Both these teams have great defenses, Michigan's top TD producer will not play, and the weather will be very cold and possibly messy. All the proper ingredients for a good under. I bought this up above 7 TDs for -140.
Army +5.5 (3 UNITS) -- Army is coming off a Div 1A loss to Rice and a Div 2A BIG win over VMI which was also their homecoming. I agree with redbearde that this line is making Army a dog simply because of what Rice did to them two weeks ago. There's two things to remember about that game: Rice is a team that is implementing a new offensive scheme and they will get better as the season goes along, AND they whole team was riding an emotional high as they had dedicated that game to their lost teammate. Guys, this is one of the best Army teams we have seen in quite a while. And, here's a capping angle that is lost on Sportsnut -- UCONN SUCKS REALLY BAD!!! Now, back to something Sportsnut would understand -- my three sets of Power ratings have Army favored in this game! Army will likely win this one SU!!
Texas -27 (2.5 UNITS) -- Guys, I was considering all week that this game was a play on Baylor or no play. Texas is in a classic "sandwich spot" here after playing Oklahoma last week and Nebraska next week. Now, they play a team that they have whipped the living daylights out of in forever in this series. I could see them becoming complacent and allowing a Baylor backdoor. BUT, then, a Baylor cornerback had to shoot off his mouth about Texas this week and give them a reason to want to pummel Baylor again in this series. This is all you need to read for a play here: http://www.baylorfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=110593http://www.baylorfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=110593http://www.baylorfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=110593
Nebraska -8 (2.5 UNITS) -- I'm not going to allow the fact that Oklahoma State sucks on the road scare me off a play I think is good value! Nebraska is the better team and should win this by 2 TDs or more here. I know they have Texas next week, but they also know they can't overlook K-State in this road game. Oklahoma State was winning the game SU by 10 with 3:00 minutes left in the game (ok, I already mentioned this once, dammit) and they ended up losing! Prince is playing his recruits over Snyder's and i don't think it's a good idea. It will sting him here against a much better defensive team than Okie State.
Florida State -20.5 (2.5 UNITS) -- I'm not impressed with this ACC conference this year at all. Florida State with 2 losses is still in the run for the championship, so this team is not likely to lay down. Bowden Jr. is still catching flack over his offensive playcalling and Weatherford is starting to take the criticism personally about his QBing (I've read articles stating as much all week.) FSU needs a BIG offensive performance and Duke "blew their wad" last week against Alabama. I'm looking for an ass-whipping here in this game with Duke on the receiving end.
Here's some other TOTALS I am playing a UNIT on this week:
Arkie St/Memphis UNDER 44
Oregon/UCLA OVER 55
Texas Tech/Colorado OVER 47.5
Rutgers/Navy UNDER 45.5
Good luck this week, guys!!
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