S
SoonerBS
Guest
Like Yanks said in his thread, we have one night off this week (Wednesday) and then it's football for a week and half. Great time of the year for a football fan! I had a break out week last week and came away with some good money. On to this week -- I'll have write-ups as the week goes along but I wanted to get these up now:
Southern Mississippi -4 (2 UNITS) w
Florida -13 W- My reasons for playing Florida and Auburn are similar.Last week I faded both these programs because they were coming off BIG wins and playing lesser opponents with better opponents upcoming. That is known as a "sandwich" situation. The time to play them is NOT after they come off a BIG win, but 2 games from the win. That would be where we are playing them here.
Last year, BAMA won this game 31-3. BUT, let's face it here -- this is not the same BAMA ball team that held the field last year. Last year's team may have struggled at times on offense, but they led in all categories defensively. This season they are middle of the road at best in all categories. Florida, on the other hand, has taken over the role as defensive leader. And, we all know what they are capable of offensively. It's time for revenge here, and there is no better place for it to take place than in the swamp!
Auburn -8.5 (L) - Note the situational play from Florida above. Match that with the fact that S. Carolina has not been impressive in anything this year so far. USC has not beat a quality opponent yet, and has for the most part played a soft schedule. Auburn got to rest a lot of their players last week against Buffalo and should be fresh for tonight's game. Everything about this game points to a play on Auburn or "no play." I got a great early line and look forward to an easy cover here.
Miami -14 L - I've been amused by some who say Houston will score against Miami. That may be true, but will 10 points from Houston allow them to cover? I don't think so -- especially whenever you consider that Houston has one of the worse defenses I have seen this season! Last week in Houston, Houston played their toughest opponent to date in Oklahoma State. OSU has a much improved offense (although their defense still sucks!), but that doesn't excuse the fact that they were able to go up and down the field at will against Houston. That was a game where Phil Steele predicted it best -- the team that has the ball at the end of the game will win. Lot's of offense against inferior defenses.
Yes, Houston has a squirrelly, sandlot type offense. But, Miami, who has one of the best defenses in the country and has played a schedule of very tough competition so far this season, has had two weeks to prepare for this meeting. Not only will they be the toughest defense that Houston has had to face by FAR this season, but Houston will have to play this game IN Miami! Miami has a lot of pent up frustrations to let go of here and it will not be pretty for Houston.
Navy +3 (3 UNITS) W- First off, can anyone say they have been impressed with UCONN this season? Has anyone noticed who they have played and who has beat them? Now add to that the fact that you have a Navy team coming off a loss where they are 12-1 ATS coming off losses, and they are bringing the #1 rushing offense in the country to play an untested UCONN team! Navy's discipline and experience will be too much for UCONN here and Navy will win this one SU!
Nebraska -20 L- Revenge and a sorry Kansas team that has lost their defensive stars and swagger from last two years. That's all you need to know about this one. Last week was a "quality" win for Kansas. Quality in the sense that all wins will be few and far between for this team this year. Now, they have to go to Lincoln . . . . .
Rice +11 W- You know, there are a lot of "angles" to consider and play in college football. Ideally, you'd love to find plays that will meet every handicapping criteria and angle, but let's face it, if we waited for that we would likely only be making about 4 plays a season. My reasoning for this play is this: Rice is dedicating this entire game to their lost comrade who passed away last Sunday. Emotions should be running high, and they will have an opportunity to finally be able to do something against a team they can actually play with. I'm not disrespecting Army's accomplishments this season, but should they really be laying 11 points here?
Miami (OH) +10 L - Two teams that have had about the same success this season and I'm playing the one who is getting DD points.
Arkansas St +8 W - Whenever the Sun Belt teams start playing each other, I like to bet the team that has the better defense and is catching more than a TD. ASU fits the bill here.
Air Force -13 W - This will be the third week I have faded New Mexico after being bit by them the last two times. I know this may not make a lot of sense from a capping standpoint, but I have followed Phil Steele's *4 plays almost religiously over the last two years and have won some great money! This is his *4 play this week.
Colorado +16 (2.5 UNITS) W
Washington St +17 W
Iowa +7 L
Notre Dame -14 (2.5 UNITS) P
Tennessee -13.5 W
Iowa State -16 (2 UNITS) L
Good luck, dudes!!
Southern Mississippi -4 (2 UNITS) w
Florida -13 W- My reasons for playing Florida and Auburn are similar.Last week I faded both these programs because they were coming off BIG wins and playing lesser opponents with better opponents upcoming. That is known as a "sandwich" situation. The time to play them is NOT after they come off a BIG win, but 2 games from the win. That would be where we are playing them here.
Last year, BAMA won this game 31-3. BUT, let's face it here -- this is not the same BAMA ball team that held the field last year. Last year's team may have struggled at times on offense, but they led in all categories defensively. This season they are middle of the road at best in all categories. Florida, on the other hand, has taken over the role as defensive leader. And, we all know what they are capable of offensively. It's time for revenge here, and there is no better place for it to take place than in the swamp!
Auburn -8.5 (L) - Note the situational play from Florida above. Match that with the fact that S. Carolina has not been impressive in anything this year so far. USC has not beat a quality opponent yet, and has for the most part played a soft schedule. Auburn got to rest a lot of their players last week against Buffalo and should be fresh for tonight's game. Everything about this game points to a play on Auburn or "no play." I got a great early line and look forward to an easy cover here.
Miami -14 L - I've been amused by some who say Houston will score against Miami. That may be true, but will 10 points from Houston allow them to cover? I don't think so -- especially whenever you consider that Houston has one of the worse defenses I have seen this season! Last week in Houston, Houston played their toughest opponent to date in Oklahoma State. OSU has a much improved offense (although their defense still sucks!), but that doesn't excuse the fact that they were able to go up and down the field at will against Houston. That was a game where Phil Steele predicted it best -- the team that has the ball at the end of the game will win. Lot's of offense against inferior defenses.
Yes, Houston has a squirrelly, sandlot type offense. But, Miami, who has one of the best defenses in the country and has played a schedule of very tough competition so far this season, has had two weeks to prepare for this meeting. Not only will they be the toughest defense that Houston has had to face by FAR this season, but Houston will have to play this game IN Miami! Miami has a lot of pent up frustrations to let go of here and it will not be pretty for Houston.
Navy +3 (3 UNITS) W- First off, can anyone say they have been impressed with UCONN this season? Has anyone noticed who they have played and who has beat them? Now add to that the fact that you have a Navy team coming off a loss where they are 12-1 ATS coming off losses, and they are bringing the #1 rushing offense in the country to play an untested UCONN team! Navy's discipline and experience will be too much for UCONN here and Navy will win this one SU!
Nebraska -20 L- Revenge and a sorry Kansas team that has lost their defensive stars and swagger from last two years. That's all you need to know about this one. Last week was a "quality" win for Kansas. Quality in the sense that all wins will be few and far between for this team this year. Now, they have to go to Lincoln . . . . .
Rice +11 W- You know, there are a lot of "angles" to consider and play in college football. Ideally, you'd love to find plays that will meet every handicapping criteria and angle, but let's face it, if we waited for that we would likely only be making about 4 plays a season. My reasoning for this play is this: Rice is dedicating this entire game to their lost comrade who passed away last Sunday. Emotions should be running high, and they will have an opportunity to finally be able to do something against a team they can actually play with. I'm not disrespecting Army's accomplishments this season, but should they really be laying 11 points here?
Miami (OH) +10 L - Two teams that have had about the same success this season and I'm playing the one who is getting DD points.
Arkansas St +8 W - Whenever the Sun Belt teams start playing each other, I like to bet the team that has the better defense and is catching more than a TD. ASU fits the bill here.
Air Force -13 W - This will be the third week I have faded New Mexico after being bit by them the last two times. I know this may not make a lot of sense from a capping standpoint, but I have followed Phil Steele's *4 plays almost religiously over the last two years and have won some great money! This is his *4 play this week.
Colorado +16 (2.5 UNITS) W
Washington St +17 W
Iowa +7 L
Notre Dame -14 (2.5 UNITS) P
Tennessee -13.5 W
Iowa State -16 (2 UNITS) L
Good luck, dudes!!
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