S
SoonerBS
Guest
Guys, this week has been a tough week of capping which will probably turn out to be good because it has caused me to do some indepth capping to find the good plays. We have a lot of apots of teams coming off BIG games last week. I also think that this is the week the dogs will be barking as it is typically the fiirst three weeks where the favorites sing. I've seen a lot of chalk bet around the board this week and I hope we don't get caught with our pants down. I exactly EVEN overall in record this year, but I am up on UNITS thanks to a 6 team teaser that cashed last week. OK, enough of the preliminaries:
UTEP -8.5 (2 UNITS) -- I was on Missouri -13.5 last week in a losing effort as they only beat the Lobos by 10. Looking back, I shouldn't have bet it because it was Missouri's first road game with a new QB. The score does not show a great New Mexico effort as much as it shows a poor Missouri effort. The Lobos were only able to manage a little over 200 yards total offense and had 3 turnovers in the game. Let's face it guys, New Mexico sucks this year and should be faded a lot! Why are we going to fade them here after they covered ATS at home last week? This is not UTEP's first road trip. They beat SDSU pretty convincingly in their season opener. Two weeks ago they nearly upset Texas Tech at home. They have had two weeks to figure out what went wrong in the Tech game and to prepare for this pitiful New Mexico team. The best way to get over a loss is to beat the shit out of you next opponent. I look for a 14+ win for UTEP here over NM!
California -8 -- I can't give any better explanation for this play other than what horses has already given http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=3340 .
Tulsa +5.5 -- One of my best plays last week was Navy against Stanford in which they won easily. So, why not take them now playing a 2-1 Tulsa team at home? I had lots of thoughts on why Tulsa was the right play, and then I came across this write-up by "Sports Reporters" that backed up my thoughts:
"The size disadvantage at the line of scrimmage that hurt Tulsa when it was routed by BYU two weeks ago doesn't exist here. And from a schematic standpoint, Tulsa's preparation should be helped immensely by the fact that fourth-year coach Steve Kragthorpe’s team played (and beat) Rice each of the last three seasons when Rice still was running
a triple option similar to Navy's. Tulsa’s unusual 3-3-5 defensive alignment means that its DBs are familiar with providing run support, which they must do in this game. That, right there, is a red flag against Navy, coming off two games vs. East Carolina and Stanford defenses. East Carolina is in the early stages of playing a lousy 3-3-5, yet covered vs. Navy. Stanford couldn’t devote the necessary time and attention to deviate from their norm, and Stanford’s offense couldn’t sustain any drives, which allowed Navy’s clock-eating offense to stay on the field and wear down Stanford’s defense. That won’t happen here as Tulsa has a much better offensive system than Stanford currently does. You might think of military kids as resilient and impervious to distractions, but after the Navy lands a revenge torpedo to the broadside of a Pac 10 ship, they’re looking for shore leave."
South Florida +5.5 -- Our new poster, "rooferman" posted in a thread today that inside sources are saying that KU's starting QB may not play this weekend due to a shoulder injury suffered in the Toledo game. After watching Kansas' QB last week against Toledo, this could be a blessing for the team!
In all seriousness, KU has never been known for their great offenses, they have been known for their great defenses. Unfortunately, KU graduated their great defense last year and have been struggling on both sides of the ball this season. South Florida is off to a 3-0 start against some weak sisters -- yes, even including Central Florida which we will be fading next Tuesday evening. Still, the competition gets no better here in this situation and they look really good here as a dog that could very easily win SU.
Georgia Tech -16.5 -- This is a "fade Virginia" play. Pure and simple. I'm not sure Virginia can score and I think G. Tech's defense will cause several turnovers. I know G. Tech is not the greatest offensive unit in NCAA football, but damn, guys, this Virginia team is really, really, really bad!!
Louisville -13 -- I can say that I have been fairly impressed with K-State's defense, but they haven't seen an offense like Louisville is going to throw at them! AND, I don't care if it's the 2nd string, 3rd string, or 4th string QB here, this Louisville QB corps is deep and will produce with this offense. K-State's offense is not very good and they are not very deep at any position. Louisville should have no problems stopping this below average offensive unit. Oh, and, screw the great opening line . . . . I'm not going to need it here! :smiley_acbe:
Buffalo +43 -- Say what you want about Buffalo, but they have not given up in any game they have played since Turner Gill took over as head coach. These guys have heart and will come to play even if they are limited in the talent department. Auburn is coming off a BIG win over LSU and shouldn't even be interested in this game. Word is the first string will likely not play more than 2 quarters so this keeps Buffalo in the game and 43 points are a lot of points for an Auburn team in a "letdown" phase here.
Houston +1 -- Keeper's Power Ratings have Houston an -8 favorite here. I agree. Oklahoma State has looked really good, but they have absolutely not played anybody yet. Houston will be the best competition they have faced this year and I'm mcalling this game Oklahoma State's first road game. Someone will say, "Well what about their game against Arkansas St.?" That was played on a neutral field in Little Rock and there were more Oklahoma State fans there than there were ASU fans. That will not be the case in this game. Houston is promoting Kolb as a Heisman Trophy candidate and they will do everything in their power this game win against a Big 12 school. Especially since they have bitch-slapped by the Big 12 so many times over the past 5 years.
Hawaii +14.5 -- You can see HawaiiGuy's thread for the reasons in this game. I should have took this whenever it was +16.5, but the fact that it has been knocked down to +14.5 I think shows that somebody in the "know" likes this play very much.
Texas Tech -46 $500 and -42 (Pinnacle) $500
Penn St/Ohio State UNDER 45
I hit a 6 team teaser last week, so this week I'll try a 7 team teaser: Rice +37; Buffalo +47; Tulsa +11.5; Iowa St. +32; East Carolina +29.5; Colorado +34.5; Hawaii +22.
Kentucky +27
Rice +31.5
East Carolina +23.5
Middle Tenn St. +30
UTEP -8.5 (2 UNITS) -- I was on Missouri -13.5 last week in a losing effort as they only beat the Lobos by 10. Looking back, I shouldn't have bet it because it was Missouri's first road game with a new QB. The score does not show a great New Mexico effort as much as it shows a poor Missouri effort. The Lobos were only able to manage a little over 200 yards total offense and had 3 turnovers in the game. Let's face it guys, New Mexico sucks this year and should be faded a lot! Why are we going to fade them here after they covered ATS at home last week? This is not UTEP's first road trip. They beat SDSU pretty convincingly in their season opener. Two weeks ago they nearly upset Texas Tech at home. They have had two weeks to figure out what went wrong in the Tech game and to prepare for this pitiful New Mexico team. The best way to get over a loss is to beat the shit out of you next opponent. I look for a 14+ win for UTEP here over NM!
California -8 -- I can't give any better explanation for this play other than what horses has already given http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=3340 .
Tulsa +5.5 -- One of my best plays last week was Navy against Stanford in which they won easily. So, why not take them now playing a 2-1 Tulsa team at home? I had lots of thoughts on why Tulsa was the right play, and then I came across this write-up by "Sports Reporters" that backed up my thoughts:
"The size disadvantage at the line of scrimmage that hurt Tulsa when it was routed by BYU two weeks ago doesn't exist here. And from a schematic standpoint, Tulsa's preparation should be helped immensely by the fact that fourth-year coach Steve Kragthorpe’s team played (and beat) Rice each of the last three seasons when Rice still was running
a triple option similar to Navy's. Tulsa’s unusual 3-3-5 defensive alignment means that its DBs are familiar with providing run support, which they must do in this game. That, right there, is a red flag against Navy, coming off two games vs. East Carolina and Stanford defenses. East Carolina is in the early stages of playing a lousy 3-3-5, yet covered vs. Navy. Stanford couldn’t devote the necessary time and attention to deviate from their norm, and Stanford’s offense couldn’t sustain any drives, which allowed Navy’s clock-eating offense to stay on the field and wear down Stanford’s defense. That won’t happen here as Tulsa has a much better offensive system than Stanford currently does. You might think of military kids as resilient and impervious to distractions, but after the Navy lands a revenge torpedo to the broadside of a Pac 10 ship, they’re looking for shore leave."
South Florida +5.5 -- Our new poster, "rooferman" posted in a thread today that inside sources are saying that KU's starting QB may not play this weekend due to a shoulder injury suffered in the Toledo game. After watching Kansas' QB last week against Toledo, this could be a blessing for the team!
Georgia Tech -16.5 -- This is a "fade Virginia" play. Pure and simple. I'm not sure Virginia can score and I think G. Tech's defense will cause several turnovers. I know G. Tech is not the greatest offensive unit in NCAA football, but damn, guys, this Virginia team is really, really, really bad!!
Louisville -13 -- I can say that I have been fairly impressed with K-State's defense, but they haven't seen an offense like Louisville is going to throw at them! AND, I don't care if it's the 2nd string, 3rd string, or 4th string QB here, this Louisville QB corps is deep and will produce with this offense. K-State's offense is not very good and they are not very deep at any position. Louisville should have no problems stopping this below average offensive unit. Oh, and, screw the great opening line . . . . I'm not going to need it here! :smiley_acbe:
Buffalo +43 -- Say what you want about Buffalo, but they have not given up in any game they have played since Turner Gill took over as head coach. These guys have heart and will come to play even if they are limited in the talent department. Auburn is coming off a BIG win over LSU and shouldn't even be interested in this game. Word is the first string will likely not play more than 2 quarters so this keeps Buffalo in the game and 43 points are a lot of points for an Auburn team in a "letdown" phase here.
Houston +1 -- Keeper's Power Ratings have Houston an -8 favorite here. I agree. Oklahoma State has looked really good, but they have absolutely not played anybody yet. Houston will be the best competition they have faced this year and I'm mcalling this game Oklahoma State's first road game. Someone will say, "Well what about their game against Arkansas St.?" That was played on a neutral field in Little Rock and there were more Oklahoma State fans there than there were ASU fans. That will not be the case in this game. Houston is promoting Kolb as a Heisman Trophy candidate and they will do everything in their power this game win against a Big 12 school. Especially since they have bitch-slapped by the Big 12 so many times over the past 5 years.
Hawaii +14.5 -- You can see HawaiiGuy's thread for the reasons in this game. I should have took this whenever it was +16.5, but the fact that it has been knocked down to +14.5 I think shows that somebody in the "know" likes this play very much.
Texas Tech -46 $500 and -42 (Pinnacle) $500
Penn St/Ohio State UNDER 45
I hit a 6 team teaser last week, so this week I'll try a 7 team teaser: Rice +37; Buffalo +47; Tulsa +11.5; Iowa St. +32; East Carolina +29.5; Colorado +34.5; Hawaii +22.
Kentucky +27
Rice +31.5
East Carolina +23.5
Middle Tenn St. +30
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