SoonerBS Week #4 Plays

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SoonerBS

Guest
Guys, this week has been a tough week of capping which will probably turn out to be good because it has caused me to do some indepth capping to find the good plays. We have a lot of apots of teams coming off BIG games last week. I also think that this is the week the dogs will be barking as it is typically the fiirst three weeks where the favorites sing. I've seen a lot of chalk bet around the board this week and I hope we don't get caught with our pants down. I exactly EVEN overall in record this year, but I am up on UNITS thanks to a 6 team teaser that cashed last week. OK, enough of the preliminaries:

UTEP -8.5 (2 UNITS) -- I was on Missouri -13.5 last week in a losing effort as they only beat the Lobos by 10. Looking back, I shouldn't have bet it because it was Missouri's first road game with a new QB. The score does not show a great New Mexico effort as much as it shows a poor Missouri effort. The Lobos were only able to manage a little over 200 yards total offense and had 3 turnovers in the game. Let's face it guys, New Mexico sucks this year and should be faded a lot! Why are we going to fade them here after they covered ATS at home last week? This is not UTEP's first road trip. They beat SDSU pretty convincingly in their season opener. Two weeks ago they nearly upset Texas Tech at home. They have had two weeks to figure out what went wrong in the Tech game and to prepare for this pitiful New Mexico team. The best way to get over a loss is to beat the shit out of you next opponent. I look for a 14+ win for UTEP here over NM!

California -8 -- I can't give any better explanation for this play other than what horses has already given http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=3340 .

Tulsa +5.5 -- One of my best plays last week was Navy against Stanford in which they won easily. So, why not take them now playing a 2-1 Tulsa team at home? I had lots of thoughts on why Tulsa was the right play, and then I came across this write-up by "Sports Reporters" that backed up my thoughts:

"The size disadvantage at the line of scrimmage that hurt Tulsa when it was routed by BYU two weeks ago doesn't exist here. And from a schematic standpoint, Tulsa's preparation should be helped immensely by the fact that fourth-year coach Steve Kragthorpe’s team played (and beat) Rice each of the last three seasons when Rice still was running
a triple option similar to Navy's. Tulsa’s unusual 3-3-5 defensive alignment means that its DBs are familiar with providing run support, which they must do in this game. That, right there, is a red flag against Navy, coming off two games vs. East Carolina and Stanford defenses. East Carolina is in the early stages of playing a lousy 3-3-5, yet covered vs. Navy. Stanford couldn’t devote the necessary time and attention to deviate from their norm, and Stanford’s offense couldn’t sustain any drives, which allowed Navy’s clock-eating offense to stay on the field and wear down Stanford’s defense. That won’t happen here as Tulsa has a much better offensive system than Stanford currently does. You might think of military kids as resilient and impervious to distractions, but after the Navy lands a revenge torpedo to the broadside of a Pac 10 ship, they’re looking for shore leave."

South Florida +5.5 -- Our new poster, "rooferman" posted in a thread today that inside sources are saying that KU's starting QB may not play this weekend due to a shoulder injury suffered in the Toledo game. After watching Kansas' QB last week against Toledo, this could be a blessing for the team!
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In all seriousness, KU has never been known for their great offenses, they have been known for their great defenses. Unfortunately, KU graduated their great defense last year and have been struggling on both sides of the ball this season. South Florida is off to a 3-0 start against some weak sisters -- yes, even including Central Florida which we will be fading next Tuesday evening. Still, the competition gets no better here in this situation and they look really good here as a dog that could very easily win SU.

Georgia Tech -16.5 -- This is a "fade Virginia" play. Pure and simple. I'm not sure Virginia can score and I think G. Tech's defense will cause several turnovers. I know G. Tech is not the greatest offensive unit in NCAA football, but damn, guys, this Virginia team is really, really, really bad!!

Louisville -13 -- I can say that I have been fairly impressed with K-State's defense, but they haven't seen an offense like Louisville is going to throw at them! AND, I don't care if it's the 2nd string, 3rd string, or 4th string QB here, this Louisville QB corps is deep and will produce with this offense. K-State's offense is not very good and they are not very deep at any position. Louisville should have no problems stopping this below average offensive unit. Oh, and, screw the great opening line . . . . I'm not going to need it here! :smiley_acbe:

Buffalo +43 -- Say what you want about Buffalo, but they have not given up in any game they have played since Turner Gill took over as head coach. These guys have heart and will come to play even if they are limited in the talent department. Auburn is coming off a BIG win over LSU and shouldn't even be interested in this game. Word is the first string will likely not play more than 2 quarters so this keeps Buffalo in the game and 43 points are a lot of points for an Auburn team in a "letdown" phase here.

Houston +1 -- Keeper's Power Ratings have Houston an -8 favorite here. I agree. Oklahoma State has looked really good, but they have absolutely not played anybody yet. Houston will be the best competition they have faced this year and I'm mcalling this game Oklahoma State's first road game. Someone will say, "Well what about their game against Arkansas St.?" That was played on a neutral field in Little Rock and there were more Oklahoma State fans there than there were ASU fans. That will not be the case in this game. Houston is promoting Kolb as a Heisman Trophy candidate and they will do everything in their power this game win against a Big 12 school. Especially since they have bitch-slapped by the Big 12 so many times over the past 5 years.

Hawaii +14.5 -- You can see HawaiiGuy's thread for the reasons in this game. I should have took this whenever it was +16.5, but the fact that it has been knocked down to +14.5 I think shows that somebody in the "know" likes this play very much.

Texas Tech -46 $500 and -42 (Pinnacle) $500

Penn St/Ohio State UNDER 45

I hit a 6 team teaser last week, so this week I'll try a 7 team teaser: Rice +37; Buffalo +47; Tulsa +11.5; Iowa St. +32; East Carolina +29.5; Colorado +34.5; Hawaii +22.

Kentucky +27

Rice +31.5

East Carolina +23.5

Middle Tenn St. +30
 
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Football Junky said:
Best of luck Den! You going elking hunting this year?

No, FJ, I moved over a year and a half ago and my "Elk Hunting Buddies and Resources" were at my former location. I really enjoy elk hunting though and whenever my son is old enough to go (he's only 7 right now) I plan on making that part of my yearly plans again.
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Sooners

Looks good for the most part, not too sure about that Houston play though. Anywho, gotta tell ya to move that Uconn consideration to a MUST PLAY.

GL bro!

:cheers:
 
GL like all your plays... except ECU. Not that they can't cover but I think it will need to be done backdoor style. I don't think they have any chance of hanging with WVU out the gates.. and wouldn't even get them a nod vs. WVU's backups.
 
Glad to see someone else on Houston.

Solid thoughts Den.

Should be a nice week indeed.
 
Good luck Sooner. Glad to know you were digging hard on this card.

I'm with you 100% on UTEP, Louisville, and Buffalo. I'm on the 1/2 and 4/4 with Louisville. I'm on Rice already. Leaning Tulsa. UCONN almost made the cut on my post and it is a lean as well. I was hoping you'd be on USC with me but I guess that is one of those chalky lines you mentioned. Also expected you to chime in on Utah.

No opinion on the others as they were all within 7pts off the line on my programs.
 
East Carolina's offense is better than Maryland so there is hope playing at home and getting the same amount of points BY God beat Maryland by.

but, i'll be looking at a first quarter line for WVa.

Good luck Den.
 
OK, the $500 play is: Texas Tech -46 vs. SE Louisiana

I got this bet at www.betus.com because they and 5dimes are the only two books I know that will put these kind of bets up. Guys, Tech will hang way over -50 on these guys! Leach is already prompting them to do it by calling his players "prima donnas" and "soft" after last week's loss to TCU. He has told them that if he doesn't see more agrresiveness this week in practice and in the game this weekend, he will not be afraid to bench them in future games.

Texas Tech has a history of running up the score on weaker opponents and they will likely do that in this game with all the motivation Leach is handing out. SE Louisiana, by the way, did not even have a football program from 1986-2004. Southern Miss pounded these guys 45-0 and New Mexico State even beat them 30-15. Tech at home will eliminate these guys!!

If you're interested in investing some money on this game at www.betus.com, be sure to PM me and let me give you my account name for referral bonuses!
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Several of you guys know Ppa316 over at Sports Degenerates. He and I confer on a lot of games, and we both agreed that this one was a winner. We've been looking at it since Sunday. Lines just came out on the game today at betus.
 
Good stuff, Den. I'll take another look at UTEP, for sure.

Outta the plays, only disagree with the Houston pick. My reasoning is already typed out for taking Okie St, but good health with that.

No Kentucky game?
You can get it at 4 scores to beat you. And it's not jsut a sandwich game...it's a super sandwich game. Following this game, Gators got a helluva 4 game stretch...and with Auburn and LSU being two of those, wow. IMO, they jsut wanna come out of this one healthy...and they'll jsut keep Kentucky at arm's reach...meaning 10 to 14 pts away. Which is why the suspension is being served this week...and current injuries prolly won't see all that much time.
 
Yanks, I am still considering the Kentucky game I just forgot to list it.

Phil Steele just got through mentioning in an interview that he really felt like that Houston/Ok State line was just where it needs to be. He said that the winner and team to cover will likely be the last team with the ball. He leans very slightly to Houston.

Probably, it should be a no play, but it will be on Fox SW here in Oklahoma Saturday night and being the degenerate that I am, I have to have some money on it.
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SoonerBS said:
Yanks, I am still considering the Kentucky game I just forgot to list it.

Phil Steele just got through mentioning in an interview that he really felt like that Houston/Ok State line was just where it needs to be. He said that the winner and team to cover will likely be the last team with the ball. He leans very slightly to Houston.

Probably, it should be a no play, but it will be on Fox SW here in Oklahoma Saturday night and being the degenerate that I am, I have to have some money on it.
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which is prolly a very accurate assessment
 
I wanted to give a little more explanation on the $500 Texas tech bet: usually whenever I find a game I REALLY like like this, I'll lay $1,000 on it which is a HUGE bet for me. But, BetUS only allows a $500 limit on these Div. 2A bets. I could have called and whined them into a $1,000 bet, but being a new account for me, I want to see if they are going to pay this one off before I extend my account limit with them.

I did research the book and it seems reputable.
 
Den - GL on your plays this week. I really like the Cal play and got on it at 7. I am going to disagree with you on Tulsa as I will take Navy in this one. Tulsa defense did not look good against Byu and I'm not sold on them. I saw this note today on Kansas qb situation that I thought I would pass on to you.

Kansas
Player
Injury
Status
Kerry Meier
Shoulder
downgraded to "?".
Mangino said earlier this week that he expected Meier to play in Saturday's game against South Florida. But as he headed toward the locker room following Wednesday's practice, Mangino didn't sound nearly as optimistic about the health of his freshman quarterback. "He's day-to-day" Mangino said. "If he can play, great. If he can't, we'll go to the next person and get him ready. I'm not going to speculate at this point."
 
Thanks, Tim! I know Tulsa didn't do well against BYU, but it was road game and BYU is a pretty good football team this year. I like Navy, too, but this will be the best offense Navy has faced this season and the Tulsa defense is better equipped for the Navy offense than the other teams as well.

I really think this will be a close game with Tulsa having an opportunity to win SU.

Good luck this weekend, Tim!!
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Sup Denny...

Definitely Like Cal (game & 1st half).

Tedford is 10-0 against the 1rst half line (+10.0 Units) as a favorite of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line as the coach of CALIFORNIA.
The average score was CALIFORNIA 24.5, OPPONENT 7.7 - (Rating = 5*)

After reading you writeup, I need to take a better look at that UTEP game.

I hope Auburn plays their boys through 2 qtrs as I have them 1st half...I'll give you the 2nd half bro!

Wish I could play that Texas Tech game...no account at that site.

BOL buddy!

Shorty
 
Den - Did you take a look at AF/Wyo? Curious as to your thoughts on that game. I was very impressed with AF being able to run so well vs. Tenn in their opener. Don't see Wyoming having enough offense to win this one but definitely respect the Wyo. D.
 
Hey sooner

Looks like some solid picks this week. Im definitly liking Tulsa, buffalo (lol), ECU, and Hawaii (Boise gonna get Bess'd up!!!).

Good luck bro!
 
Tim, Keepers has Wyoming at about -9 favorite? But, I agree with you on Air Force. I decided to leave the game alone.
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Nick, where do you think the Hawaii line will stop? Have any idea?
 
With the public factor probably on boise, I have no idea but it did just go to 14.5 on pinnacle earlier today. I would go ahead and lock in at anything +14.5 or higher because I think the likelihood of it dropping under 14 might be higher than it going up to anything relevant like 16 or 17.
 
I went ahead and jumped on Hawaii +14.5 and it has been added to my plays. You can see HawaiiGuy's thread for info.
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Den - I saw that rating out of Keepers on AF game, really kind of surprised me.
 
Jarret Hicks, Texas Tech's best receiver and an all American, has just been reinstated effective immediately.
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SoonerBS said:
Jarret Hicks, Texas Tech's best receiver and an all American, has just been reinstated effective immediately.
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Now all we need is a QB to get him the ball.
 
On the Cal/ASU play, you have to remember Koetter is 0-California since he's been at ASU, having NEVER won SU in the state!!!!
 
Sooner, you can get the Texas Tech line @ -42 on Pinnacle

I'm sure you have a Pinnacle account so check it out under NCAA Added (and anyone else that wants to bet this game!)

GL
 
Thanks, Mossecock!

I just added: Penn State/Ohio State UNDER 45

Both these teams have good defenses and inclement weather is expected by game time and all day long!!
 
Who told you about the inclement weather?

I'll take a piece if it cashes. If not, no fee. What a deal!
 
OK, guys, just took another $500 bet with Texas Tech at -42 at Pinnacle. That's a rare DIME play for me !!!
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OK, I've added my last plays for the week in first post. Good luck everybody!
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GL denny..might have to roll with you on that TT game small...good looking out!
 
rjurewitz said:
Who told you about the inclement weather?

I'll take a piece if it cashes. If not, no fee. What a deal!

It's raining cats and dogs here right now. But gametime is still 12+ hours away...

GL Denny!

:Cheers:
 
it's on the ncaa added games fellas...lots of DI schools vs I- AA schools...ie TTU, Rutgers, Ball St, Pittsburgh....
 
Good luck today, guys! I'm hoping we're all sitting back drinking premium beers and counting our money at the end of the day!
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Idaho +26 for some change and some action.

This has been a GREAT day for me, dudes!!
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money; Just remember to share that pile of winnings from today:smiley_acbe:

Seems to be good things when we are riding the same "dogs":cheers:
 
mcm481 said:
money; Just remember to share that pile of winnings from today:smiley_acbe:

Seems to be good things when we are riding the same "dogs":cheers:

I hear you, dude, let's stick up the Book's ass again next week!!
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