I agree on both Cleveland and Jax, W2W.
Also, since you've started this, Here are a few (OK, maybe more than a few) thoughts from me.
I don’t have the Sunday ticket this year, which is probably better for my overall health, so this probably won’t be a recurring thing. But a little something for old time’s sake.
So … late in the day, I started to think about the phrase, ‘Hey, word to Wise, listen to my analysis if you want, but don’t touch my bets.’ And Joe’s a pretty transparent guy, case in point, he usually tries not to wear pants. Point is, I’m fine to tell you what I played today and some of it is not pretty.
But beyond that, the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to say something totally different to you all and that is this. Do not be hard on yourself about any of your losses in the NFL today.
Historically, annually, the next 24 hours are an absolute field day of overreaction to exactly one day’s worth of sample size. Not only is that ridiculous, the idea that you (or I) should have gone 4-0, 5-0, 7-1, etc. today is nuts. Based on what? A shortened pre-season that only some teams took seriously?
Don’t get me wrong, if you went 4-0+ today, CONGRATS. You deserve it, but if you didn’t, lighten up on yourself, because you didn’t have any live-bullet info until just now.
With that being said, Joe did find himself watching some of these games today and I feel like I have some answers, but I also have a lot of questions.
The game I may have watched most of—and I know this will shock you—was Atlanta vs.
THE MIGHTY MIGHTY PHILADELPHIA EAGLES.
Now, you think you don’t care about the Eagles, or the Falcons, but first, you’re wrong. And second, because you didn’t watch them, I’m here to help you out in case you want to bet on either of them going forward.
- The Eagles’ OL pushed Atlanta all over the field today. IF the Birds’ OL is healthy, this team will be good for probably about 23 points a game this year. Because they have the weapons to move the ball.
- HOWEVER, and this is the ‘don’t over react part,’ was the Eagles’ OL great and will they be good this year, or does the Atlanta DL just suck like they’re in the alley behind the bar and really need the money. That was pretty much how they were last year, so stay tuned.
- Atlanta didn’t look in any way ready to start the season. I didn’t have faith in this team before the season, and I don’t have any now. They looked flat, Ryan looked a little lost, honestly, they looked like shit. At home. In game one of the season. Maybe it means nothing, but …
There are Seahawk highlights on as I type this and here’s a fun note, if you had gone against the three most pro-Covid teams in the league today, you’d have gone 3-0. Two of them were favored (Buffalo & Minny) and two of them were at home (also Buffalo, and Indy). And if you’d have thrown in Washington—which is shitty because Rivera is trying, his team was just being kind of dickish about it most of the offseason—you’d have gone 4-0. I did not do this, but it is interesting.
Oh, speaking of the Fighting Riveras,
who’s QBing the Washington Armada/Red Hogs/Clusterfuckers next week?
Speaking of Seattle, I don’t really think this result or this score should surprise. There were a couple of spots today where I’d have normally looked at the over, and this is one, Indy at home. Problem is, new QB in Indy, which is thankfully what kept me off and saved me the loss.
The two questions I have from this game are related to that:
Is Seattle’s defense decent? Will they be going forward or was this them getting a cheap win against a QB who really hasn’t had much time with his new offense? Related,
is Indy’s offense going to be able to get close to where they were last year with Wentz or is 17 to 20 points what we should expect from this team?
Joe likes overs. Joe likes overs in climate controlled settings. Joe wants to bet overs in Indy. But Joe is not going to back Carson Wentz if he’s going to chortle balls to the tune of only 16 points at home. Because fuck that guy.
I’m sure seeing Carson Wentz lose will get old at some point, but right now it still makes my heart happy. I didn’t really watch this game, but I’m going to guess being 5-13 on 3rd and 0-3 on 4th is what killed the Colts today. Also, after today, Wentz has still never beaten Seattle, ever.
A game I was wrong on, the over in Houston. Maybe this score looks different if Lawrence doesn’t throw INTs from his own 10 yardline on 3rd and long, but we’ll never know that, now will we.
I’m not totally sure who I wanted to win this game, tbh. I think Houston, because I don’t see either of these teams winning many games. Houston now goes to Cleveland where I imagine the line will be 10, but if it’s less than that Cleveland may be worth a look here, esp. on a tease. If it’s more, is there enough room for a very workman like Houston to get in the back door?
[Editor’s note: No Steed joke here? Are we sure we want to just leave that on the table?]
Jax goes home for Denver which, I hate that it’s Denver’s second road game in a row, but based on both preseason and what we saw today, Denver is clearly the better team.
Speaking of
Denver, I saw it live and I just assume Jerry Jeudy broke his ankle because that looked gross. That may not be a problem next week—and obviously I hope he gets better, but that would be a pretty huge blow to Denver.
Ah, hang on, I looked it up they say the x-rays were negative? Yeah, I’d get a second opinion on that. But they say he’s done for 6 to 8 weeks. Not good.
But Denver is another team who out-classed their opponent today.
The Giants looked awful. Like they looked awful to the point that in the 4th quarter, the Broncos’ defense was asking for noise from the crowd because the fans that were still there were mostly Donks fans. Just not good.
That said, do you overreact to one shitty game from the Giants? Tough to say. The Giants only gave up two sacks and they were 50% on third down. But honestly, this game was not as close as the score.
Speaking of not as close as the score, if there was one game that went according to the script today, it had to be San Fran. As someone who did not watch this game, my major question is this:
Is the Detroit home over back in play? SF had 31 at halftime. Is it possible that the role of Stat Padford has simply been re-cast with Jared Goff and we can look at this team’s total’s at home going forward?
Enough of my losses, let’s talk about one of my wins. Oh, no, wait let’s talk about one more of the losses really quickly because the two games I’m going to bring up felt a lot alike in some ways.
Oh,
Minnesota. You know, I said I wasn’t feeling this team before the season started, then what did I do, I laid points with them on the road? Why? Well, I bought into a lot of that, ‘Cincy looked lost in the preseason’ nonsense. Which, again, let’s not beat ourselves up.
My main takeaway from watching a good bit of this game—you’re welcome—is that these teams, to me, looked very much like who they are.
That old Bill Parcells thing about you are what your record says you are? I think these two teams are who what this score says they are. I think they’re 24 points. And if you play good defense, you may hold them under 20 and you’ll win. And if you don’t, they’ll probably keep you in the game and give you a shot. That’s who I think they both are. So maybe they make decent teaser plays if you can get points with them?
Also, the call in OT to win the game by the Bengals was both a good one, and the right one. You can’t punt on 4th and whatever there. That tells your team you’re playing for the tie in the first week of the season. Honestly, that’s how you lose a locker room. But then to call a bootleg pass? I don’t like that I lost, but at least it wasn’t bullshit. It was ballsy. Cincy deserved that win.
Same game, this one I won on (amazing!!), I think that
NE/Miami game was a game of two teams also being both ready for the season, and being who they are. (I had the under here, not the side.) But unlike Cincy/Minny, I don’t necessarily believe this score is who these teams are as much as the game is who they are. Here’s what I mean.
I don’t think NE or Miami are necessarily only going to be good for 17 points each week. I think that this game thankfully played out like those of us on the under expected. Division game, first game for a rookie QB, second(?) game for Tua vs. Belichick, Miami with a solid defense, conservative game on both sides of the ball.
Especially to start the season, I do think this is what you’ll get from NE as they try to get Jones more comfortable, but I also think you’re going to see them put pressure on their own defense to not force their offense into bad positions.
What I also think you’re going to see all week is more Mac Jones hype. As if we haven’t had enough already. But that may create some value the other way. After all, NE both lost and failed to cover today even though I very much doubt that’s how it gets covered this week.
Also, in my preseason preamble, I mentioned how this league is all QBs all the time? The just abysmal roughing the passer call in this game—which took away from a fantastic defensive play from Miami, btw—is just more evidence of that. Which I didn’t need, but if you needed more evidence, there it was.
The good news is NE gets the Jets next week, the bad, the Jones hype train may make the line something less than appetizing.
Shit, I thought I was done with my losses, but I’ve got one more. OK, technically I split this game as I had the side as well, but I was wrong on the over in
Carolina. My working theory was they were going to let these QBs throw the ball around. Also, I figured if the Jets got down a couple of scores (they did), they’d really open it up (they kinda did), and that would lead to some easy points for Carolina (it did not).
Thing is, not to justify my play here, but there were 70+ passes thrown in the game for over 500 yards. And yet, somehow they barely made it to 30 points.
I thought Zach Wilson looked a lot like the hype train said he would—but here’s the thing that jumped out to me, that Oline sucks. He was sacked six times and he was running all day. Now, maybe Carolina’s DL is better than advertised, or maybe the Jets are going to struggle blocking for this guy all year. Something I would keep an eye on.
As for Carolina, tbh, I think they are who we/I think they are. You can argue their cover today was lucky, I actually would argue that and thank you, Gambling Gods for that failed 2-pt conversion. BUT, when they had to run the clock out, who got the ball? McCaffrey. I still say this team runs through McCaffrey—and if you have a good DL, quick laterally along the line like, say, LAR—Carolina is going to have a long day.
Back to games I didn’t watch, how did Green Bay’s OL look and
how did the Saints defense look? I’m guessing the answers are bad and good respectively because although NO only had two sacks, GB was a pretty spectacular 1-10 on third down and their leading rusher had 19 yards. That seems … sub-optimal.
I didn’t like anything about that game so I stayed away, and didn’t watch, but being that the entire world will want to bet on GB at home next week at home on MNF,
does anybody have some insight on Green Bay? Did it matter that Love got into the game, could they block for him either?
And I know the Saints are in a weird place being without a real home right now, but they go to Carolina next week. Do they fit the criteria of a team that’s quick along the DL and that may be able to slow McCaffrey?
In other games that kind of went how you thought,
Cleveland/KC. I tried to watch some of this game, but I’m one of the few people in the country who doesn’t like Romo/Nantz—I also didn’t bet the game, so I watched more of the Donks/Giants. But everybody who said you could name your score in this one seemed to be right. Nice work. And yes it landed inside the number, but really, this score seems like what you expected, basically, no? You may not have expected how it got there, but the end seems right, no?
Which is to say, I think both KC and Cleveland are going to be just fine if they can stay away from injury.
Buffalo … What happened? You’re up 10-0, against a team you should be able to push around a bit, you leave them in the game and suddenly you’re down by 10? It had to be more than the blocked punt.
To me this feels like one of those games where we look back later in the season and we say, ‘Oh, yeah, Buffalo lost to Pittsburgh, and look at these teams now.’
That said, last year Pitt started off hot and scoring points.
Is it possible the Steez repeat their early season performance from last season, at least to a degree?
Also in the ‘hey, what happened’ pile … Tennessee?
It’s one game, but
where’s that Titans' offense we all ordered?
I didn’t watch this game at all (though I did have the over). Interesting note, last year AZ was 0-8 to the over away from home and Tenny was an over machine. Yet today, at home, Tenny was … flat? IDK, but something happened.
What I have noticed in what I’ve seen from this game is that what I hoped
Arizona would be before the season, fun, high scoring, is who they may be. Now they go home for Minnesota. Another over perhaps?
Currently ongoing: The
Lambs look about as advertised. Though they’re not dry-humping Andy Dalton’s face into the turf as much as I’d expected or hoped.
Maybe Dalton lasts longer as the starter than one week? Hahahaha, I say that and then Fields comes in and scores.
All right, enough nonsense from me, save this:
Based on today, matchups that I want to look at for next week:
- Cleveland > Houston
- Denver > Jax
- Pitt > LV
- Pitt/Vegas over?
- Belicheat > a rookie QB (@NYJ)
- Minny/AZ over?
- AZ > Minny if it’s under -4?
- Tenny + @Seattle if the line is inflated?
- LAR @Indy over?
- Eagles + if the line is double digits?
Anybody else want to jump in with things to add?
