Some observations from the other side of the counter about Thursday...
- Thread starter CollegeKingRex
- Start date
CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
I said earlier in a different thread that I was wrong. I thought they were going to try to bet 10K or so UNDER 11.5 and then try to get four or five times that OVER 10.5 or 11... They would not have been going for a middle; they were looking to win a lot more on the side at 11...
Actually, I was informed in about the second inning yesterday that indeed, very very sharp money was on the UNDER. After seeing what the Wrigley wind was ACTUALLY doing yesterday (blowing IN, and not OUT), it was obvious that at least one group of sharpies had a better line than the folks in CR at CRIS who decided to release it at 11.5 flat.
CKR_
My apologies if that comes off as a knock on you or a shot at you. Reading it now it might seem that way but it was I and as I said I was exhausted .
What I was trying to say with so many games on the board each day sides and totals you have 30 markets to watch. Even yourself being as huge a part of the industry you yourself have to "guess" (educated guesses) at why things might be happening at times and why lines are moving . To which I was saying I have to do the samething . Which puts us in the same boat . You could be right more often the not and so could I but simply because you work in the industry doesnt make you right . In your defense though yo did say only will time will tell if a buyback occurs.
I think if people sat back and logicaly thought about things including the surrounding events you can get a grasp why things happen . Thats all I wanted to say on the subject .
As far as that particular game I simply dont understand why any syndicate would ned to push a line down in that particular situation . I am not saying I dont believe you but I think there is some flawed logic on there part if they ever attempt to do that especially a wind situation @ Wrigley . As for better info about the wind well I would suggest it 's used it context . With two slumping lineups it was a much different scenario then previous day especially with a sinkerballer like Marquis and power arm like Cain facing a nearly all RH Cub lineup (plus 2 slumping lineups). If I only listened to myself on that one I would have been starting with a smile instead to show how tough it is ti think outside the box all I could bring myself to play on in it was two 1/2 unit plays ....I make silly mistakes just like everyone else ....see my SFG plays on Sat ...again value in terms of price loses and I should know better especially after I said last nite I quite confident Cubs win this series ...:shake: Plus I owe you a PM this afternoon... GL
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Class acts throughout the thread. Mucho respect to all of you.
G-Man
Pretty much a regular
:shake:
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jimbo1227
Nice around mics, word to pippen
in response, i guess what i have learned recently is that people have different handicapping styles and as long as they work not one is better than another, as others have stated already. it was pretty much my fault for stirring this pot. i've also learned that sports are obviously not personal and if you take 4-5 bad beats in a row it is not "someone out to get you", or "god punishing you" or even bad luck for that matter. life is crazy and anything can and will happen. people get so pist at, for example, closers who blow saves, but that is the wrong thought process. that guy probably feels shittier than anyone who lost money on it, he wants to succeed. it is really all about ego when someone loses a bet and says "that was the correct/right side." nobody wants to fail/lose and they need an excuse or need to criticize others to make themselves feel better. i'm probably the most relaxed/chilled person anyone will ever meet. sports betting is one thing that makes my blood boil at times; because it is one of the few things no one can excel at all the time. i understand that i was stubborn and please believe that i read everything you wrote SN. i like to think deeply and learn, those are my favorite things in life. sports betting can be subjective, especially for SN and it is hard to understand others thought processes. one thing i am proud of about myself is my empathy. i think that is one thing many people in the world lack. i always like to put myself in others shoes. i would rather ask people questions and listen rather than just give my opinion. i've been to 3 different colleges now and a great majority of people i've met seriously just talk about themselves all day. it is really something that has made me not want to talk to anyone because i don't want to hear about all this self indulged shit. sure it is fine to talk about yourself because that is what you know best, but when it is all fucking day and all you do is think about yourself that is some fucked up shit. this is way off topic of sports and it has nothing to do w/ anyone on here but i'm giving my perspective of life, people, emotions, thoughts. i am very humble and i will be the first to admit i am wrong. i'm still a young ass kid, 21 yrs old, and i dont know shit about the world so i am here to learn as much as i can. i've talked to SN extensively about life, and i know when he left for a long time last year i was on here everyday looking to see if he stopped by or what happened. i asked fuckin everybody where is sportsnut. i find myself caring about others way more than myself and it has been a downfall for me. i know if a girl would give me a chance they would be soo happy but it has never happened and i've been depressed at times. i guess ill end this insane rant w/ the idea that sports investing is fucking crazy and anything will happen, and it will be argued forever. but i think people shouldnt get mad at athletes or others when they lose bets. i gotta cap these games so ill be back to talk later.
Good post VK. I think we are getting mixed up here and I started it so I take the blame for it .
When I say PRICE isnt important I dont mean it as literal it sounds or you are taking it . What I feel like you are saying is the price of a game dictates the decision to make the play which I feel is wrong in fact I know is wrong . I am saying the situation or the context the game is played under coupled with perception is what should create the decision to play a game if the price corresponds . Sounds similiar but more important is understanding why its priced at certain level and if that level is exploitable.
I think most people are poor in calculating odds of something occurring . To often people think things have a 60-40 chance of happening and really its much worse then that . Which gives them the false sense of value . Which is my point on the subject of price . In GMan's post he makes many great points about how lines are set and how they are just a perception tool w/o scientific criteria. You cannot look at a game and prove a price should be so and so . So there is no true fair value . The price is of a reflection of the market's opinion but at times its a reflection of the oddsmakers opinion. Oddsmakers are Market Makers no different then those who do it for stocks . They are trying to create a 2 sided market but as we all know its impossible to have balanced action on games . The world is just not that black and white so to exist they must be very sharp in what they do . Oddsmakers like marketmarkers at times will feel comfortable having positions on games not all games some games . Now as said by GMan these lines are sold to different shops which each book has to adjust accordingly to there action received as well as other books to compete for action. Again why I call it a "game" .
As I said I feel gambling and anything risk related is the world's greatest chess game or mind game because your trying to decipher your opponents move ( your opponent being both the linesmaker and the market (buyers and sellers) on a continual basis . I used to be like many here racing to make plays on early lines in every sport as they appeared . Then I discovered how many times I handcuffed myself on a play that by gametime I had a bad feel about but kept because my price was better then closing market . So I was making snap decisions based on price rather then situation.
Which leads me to the comment PRICE is unimportant . It matters but it should be largely unimportant in your decision. Unimportant because price does not increase your chances of winning that game . It simply doesnt . If you took Cincy +200 , +300 , +400 today you still lost . Again its commonsense that if you continually lay -250 , -300 and -400 your winning pct will NEED to be near perfect to make a profit . Again the situation or context the game is played under is what creates the value . In situations where yo have an early ticket at a good price say 20 even 30 cents better how much greater is your chance of winning ? ZERO ! Your payout is better but you have no better chance the someone with a ticket 30 cents cheaper . Depending on fav or dog all you do is buy yourself more room for error as you may lose slightily less then the other person but you will still lose .By one of your above comments you said who cares if the Yankees win a particular situation that you want to know how many times they will do so to make it a profitable risk. I absolutely disagree with that . We are talking indivual events which is why I made the out of a 100 times comments. I worry about 1 situation and 1 event and if I can find an edge . If I need to pay 260 for the Yanks and I feel they win at least 80% of the time under those circumstances then I fire away ....Why ? Its still cheap . Look at oil its the same deal . If you wanted to buy oil at 110 and missed it and didnt look at the situation or big picture then you missed out on making a nice bet . So if say the Yanks are expensive just because they are -260 I am not very good at what I do because I may have missed an opportunity to make money . Now if I am wrong and the Yanks lose my bet is worth $0 . If I am wrong about OIL at 110 and it retreats to 70 then I still have something left . Simply put in sports with higher prices you want to be clear in your advantage over the listed price .
Getting back to my earlier point most people are terrible at understanding how to create probablties or odds of something occurring.
If we think about what a line says :
-150 says does this play win 60% of the time to which I add does it win better then 60% of the time in this SITUATION.
-200 say does this play win 66.7 % of the time?
-300 says 75% of the time.
How many -300 's do we see ? Few . How many plays do I think have at least a 70& chance of winning ? I would say almost all my sides that I play except when you get to dogs above +130 .....
So if you can reasonable explain a situation has at least a 75% chance of winning and you only have to pay -200 you have value ....The key is not the price is understanding the probability of the situation occuring . You can take a bunch of +200 dogs but of you keep misreading and miscalculating the situation your not going to win any thus enforcing what I say . Price alone does not create value .
Human nature likes the idea of getting something cheaper then its worth . We rather lose $100 a dollars on and underdog that pays +180 rather then win $50 on the favorite . Thats what we are told . Bet underdogs to win which conditions people to think price is the most important factor . Which has been passed down from generation to generation of gamblers w/o be rationalized .
Clearly you want a PRICE better then odds created by the situation . Clearly though price is an illusion and at times we must realie why something is being over or underpriced ( Enter the COL ROCKIES tonight) . Thats why I dont have a system for any sport . Each day and each game is a new analyzation of the situations the game occurs on . In the past few days we have seen some big lines and often hear comments like so-so is to expensive . When price causes one to change there mind thats exactly the intent being accomplished . If something is highly likely to win then books want to talk you out of it and they do so by increasing the price . So it does more then balance there books it creates doubt .
As far as the coin example you are talking a total different subject . There is no market for coin flipping . Sports Gambling is a market . The odds are scentific and proven in flipping a coin . If you flip the coin once there is a 50/50 chance it will be heads or tails so 100 even money bet makes logical sense. That has NO BEARING on this discussion or sports betting . Which why I say things like we have to listen and hear what others are saying because if talk A and you talk B we continue to argue proper points about 2 different subjects . Dont mean to be sound stuck up there but its just easier to understand people when we try and get a feel for what they are trying to say rather then imply what we think we hear . ( I am to into pyschology these days)
In sports the winning play is the correct play . Where it gets misinterpeted is understanding the logical play can and does lose . What gets lost is that illogical things occur and just because something doesn't go smoothly or logically doesnt mean it was wrong . Yes , we might not be able to see something coming like a 2-0 game in the b9th ending 7-5 . However I am telling you there are warning signs . Like when I traded bonds maybe a big instituational trader who seemingly unlimited capital could just buy x amount of an issue till he drove the market up enough to sell it hard . Things as CKR pointed out happen with syndicates looking to get there price . So its all one big educated guessing game . Thats the trick understanding how to "predict" illogical events occurring and I always say BAD LINES lose . Watching a game unfold and not understanding the random effects that will occur and how every little aspect plays a role into the final outcome is IMO a failure to understand how to play this "game" . If people want to convince themselves that there losing plays are right or correct then I promise you they will continue to make the same mistakes . Some may be good enough to overcome them and others not .
Why is it I never get frustrated by a sport or quit a sport ? I know how the game works and I can exploit it if I can trust what I see and feel . I doubt I know more about sports then the avg CTG poster / gambler . I honestly doubt that .
Like Herm Edwards said We Play to Win the game. Thats the objective when we place a bet to WIN not to map out how the game occurs . In my case when I can before a game comment on something looking "off " I dont need to rationalize it but prefer to do so to increase my self confidence in making a play on that feeling . If I can logically understand why something might occur I can better calcuate the probability why it will occur and can place a corresponding bet.
I think to many people take pride in there ability to so called a handicap a game. What skill does it take to breakdown black and white stats? It doesnt take any if we all just looked at numbers we would generally agree something near 75% of the time. The skill is reading inbewteen the lines . Which is what my posts have been about for years . Find the hidden arguement that is logical and probable. In baseball every SP will tell you everytime they toe the rubber they have no idea what type stuff they will have . Most great outings come on the heels of feeling like they had a poor warmup / bullpen session. Again illogical things happen. Doesnt make sense that in the pen in armups you have no pop on your fastball or tilt on your curve and 15 minutes later its all magically working . If a SP cant predict what type stuff he will have on a given day how can someone else do it ? So like GMan said if you dont think your dealing with perception then you probably dont realize what you are doing ( not you in general).
My comments on ego refer to our human ego not anyone in here 's particular ego . It's just human nature when we are so close on something to want to tell ourselves we were right . I am promising everyone if they become aware and look at caution signs before making decisions they will become more profitable gamblers . I have no databases , no sports packages to watch the games , no flat screen monitors , only my laptop to handicap and make decisions. Like BC and Satyr said more positive decisions with positive outcomes will even increase your indivual confidence at making plays . Which is why I am so confident on this subject because I trust what I see very well now . Not 100% of the time because I am like everyone else doubt creeps into my head but generally when I trust my unbiased reads I do very well.
One thing that might baffle people is hardly watch sports and watch about 1% of what I play other then a CBS scoreboard . Which hasnt always been the case but again it helps take away that emotional attachment . A play for me is a decision thats all . If I won I bet the game if I lost it beat me and I try to adjust .
Rather long but I think I need to clarify what I am saying . If people dont agree then so be it but PRICE does not determine value only the situation does . Price is the final factor in deciding to make a play ...
I had a bunch of strong plays on Sunday . Go into the discussion thread look at the one I posted as strong .
Houston ML and look why I felt it was off . Go back to Sat discussion thread what where my two strong plays ? Yanks ML and ATL ML . Look at my comments as to why ....Simply look at what I say on a daily basis and my track record is very high . How did this discussion start on Thurs ?
:cheers:
If I come off as arrogant or a know -it -all its just my confidence in knowing what I am saying is true . Its now who I am .
Shorty - Thanks and I truly respect all that you do as well . I do know how much people appreciate my contribution . For me its just time to move on . Has nothing to do with this topic just had that moment as silly as it sounds . I told myself I would know when enough is enough . I feel like I served my purpose or will have by the end of this thread .
My decision to stop posting daily is simple and zero do with anyone other then me . I cant do it any other way and I see myself wasting so much time here everyday . Once I get involved I get wrapped up and I am sure we all know the countless times we looked at the clock and said WTF where did time go ? For me it was the realization of how I recall looking at the time and it was like 10 PM and it seemed like the next thing I knew it was 6 PM Friday and I never did anything inbewteen but post and sleep. So Its not a waste in the sense it might sound . Its a waste in the sense of how upside down my life got turned after 9-11 and now that I am healthy ( mentally) I really want to get on with my life and have a normal everyday life . This believe or not kept my mind sharp as its alot of thinking , rationalizing and work everyday I do it . I cant even begin to get all my thoughts on a particular game down . Its a big reason why I have never been bored w/o a real job for nearly 6 years (thanks to my inability to function normally in the real world) because everyday I put in so much work , time and effort it feels like a job .
I am not disappearing or anything . I am sure when I am bored I will be logging in and probably get involved if I can. I just know I seem to get wrapped up in this and I have other priorities .
I feel lucky to have never dealt with any of the BS arguements that occur in forums not even in my Covers days . My threads were somehow never ruined there I just lost my taste for that type mentality . Here more serious and through that better relationships developed.
Anyone can PM or Email me if there is anything they want to talk about sports or non sports related . It's just time for me . The past 6-7 years I have lost just about everything I had worked for due to being sick , having no real income and its rather annoying to be much more successful and certainly financially independent at 25 and 26 then 33 . I bought my 1st house at 24-25 and since I am nealy 29 lived at home again ....So I have alot of catching up to do and starting to get eager about doing it already . Thats my story ....
P.S. In a logically world you are right you "should've" of cashed that total but I guess my sermon (lol) is about understanding how to expect the illogical and look for red flags ....
BOL bro ! :shake::cheers:
My decision to stop posting daily is simple and zero do with anyone other then me . I cant do it any other way and I see myself wasting so much time here everyday . Once I get involved I get wrapped up and I am sure we all know the countless times we looked at the clock and said WTF where did time go ? For me it was the realization of how I recall looking at the time and it was like 10 PM and it seemed like the next thing I knew it was 6 PM Friday and I never did anything inbewteen but post and sleep. So Its not a waste in the sense it might sound . Its a waste in the sense of how upside down my life got turned after 9-11 and now that I am healthy ( mentally) I really want to get on with my life and have a normal everyday life . This believe or not kept my mind sharp as its alot of thinking , rationalizing and work everyday I do it . I cant even begin to get all my thoughts on a particular game down . Its a big reason why I have never been bored w/o a real job for nearly 6 years (thanks to my inability to function normally in the real world) because everyday I put in so much work , time and effort it feels like a job .
I am not disappearing or anything . I am sure when I am bored I will be logging in and probably get involved if I can. I just know I seem to get wrapped up in this and I have other priorities .
I feel lucky to have never dealt with any of the BS arguements that occur in forums not even in my Covers days . My threads were somehow never ruined there I just lost my taste for that type mentality . Here more serious and through that better relationships developed.
Anyone can PM or Email me if there is anything they want to talk about sports or non sports related . It's just time for me . The past 6-7 years I have lost just about everything I had worked for due to being sick , having no real income and its rather annoying to be much more successful and certainly financially independent at 25 and 26 then 33 . I bought my 1st house at 24-25 and since I am nealy 29 lived at home again ....So I have alot of catching up to do and starting to get eager about doing it already . Thats my story ....
P.S. In a logically world you are right you "should've" of cashed that total but I guess my sermon (lol) is about understanding how to expect the illogical and look for red flags ....
BOL bro ! :shake::cheers:
Tuck -
I have definetly learned alot from you and how to explore different avenues in attacking each game . When ever we butted heads I am sure we both came away the wiser . Which is why we continued to debate what was relative to a game on a particular day .
I guess alot of my what I see is looking at each game as part of a sports market . Why are people buying and why are the selling ? Why are things priced as they are . What lies ahead in tmrws game and what happened in yesterday's game ...etc , etc, etc . So just like I said each play n a game contributes to how it ends up so does what happened in the previous game which is how I stumbled upon teams sort of evening out after crazy games especially losses . Big reason I rolled with STL today when most would be so called scared to do so and only later regret it .
I think odds are about situations . Which is why you discover some obscure trends and angles to make up your thinking . Things are not as black and white as we think they are . A guy hitting 280 probably fluctuates throughout the season which adds or subtracts from a team value ......
Anyway , as I told Shorty I am incapable of a little involvement so I just need to start prioritizing my life . Since this gig doesnt pay well and never will its just time to get back to real life create some bills and create a way to pay for them .
Whatever seemed like an arguement was me trying to illustrate my points and do so that my points were clear.
:cheers:GL
I have definetly learned alot from you and how to explore different avenues in attacking each game . When ever we butted heads I am sure we both came away the wiser . Which is why we continued to debate what was relative to a game on a particular day .
I guess alot of my what I see is looking at each game as part of a sports market . Why are people buying and why are the selling ? Why are things priced as they are . What lies ahead in tmrws game and what happened in yesterday's game ...etc , etc, etc . So just like I said each play n a game contributes to how it ends up so does what happened in the previous game which is how I stumbled upon teams sort of evening out after crazy games especially losses . Big reason I rolled with STL today when most would be so called scared to do so and only later regret it .
I think odds are about situations . Which is why you discover some obscure trends and angles to make up your thinking . Things are not as black and white as we think they are . A guy hitting 280 probably fluctuates throughout the season which adds or subtracts from a team value ......
Anyway , as I told Shorty I am incapable of a little involvement so I just need to start prioritizing my life . Since this gig doesnt pay well and never will its just time to get back to real life create some bills and create a way to pay for them .
Whatever seemed like an arguement was me trying to illustrate my points and do so that my points were clear.
:cheers:GL
Music - Thanks bro. Always enjoyed our discussions . As this thread is read I think people will understand better where I am coming from . I dont mind disagreeing opinions and views as that is basically what I am . I owuld hate for everyone to agree with me I love being challenged and if I am wrong there is no shame in saying so . :cheers:GL
Satyr - The respect is mutual. I remember still our discussions on Covers when you were Satyr@theKop or something like that and damn I feel old knowing your just 24 now! What I have learned is from life experience whether gambling or non gambling . So I am simply passing on my experience for people to twist into there own experiences . Like everyone I have that if I only knew then what I know thought in my head . Its the way life works , its how we evolve as people , the more intelligent we get the more we tend to learn . Most of you guys are more intelligent then I am now and certainly when I was your age(s). The key is openmindess and listening something I wasnt that good at till 9-11 woke me up .
The rush I get is simply from the decision making aspect but I do admit I do force at times because I like to put myself out there . Meaning I can force a decision cause I need that rush at times to validate my opinion . Whats my opinion worth if something is not riding out is a trap I get caught up in. Which I think if I was playing for higher stakes the validation would be there from the money. Not the need to continually prove it to myself.
On the "Right side " topic is here the aspect I havent talked about . When we win a play isnt it generally a game where we get all the breaks on our side ? The line that seperates right and wrong is very thin IMO. Which is why I said those words dont apply . Alot of what I am trying to get people to realize is that even if you won 7-0 chances are your team made the timely plays in the field and on the big pitches on the mound while your offense got the big hits and the others didnt . Is that clear to understand ? Close games like 4-2 chances are the wining team got the timely hits and the big outs while the losing team didnt . So if its that general in deciphering outcomes what is wrong and what is right ? Its a guessing game to who will produce best in key spots.
Basically every game is a series of breaks . At times when we lose games late we focus on what happened last rather then realize everything that occurred in the game up to the point is what created that ending logical or illogical. Back to SEA blowing a 2 -0 lead in the 9th and people saying they were the right side . I still dont understand how . If predicting how the game will unfold is so important who really thought RA Dickey would throw a shutout and the depleted , overworked pen would finish it off ? Reality is it was just a 2-0 game even if SEA had clearly played better things can change very quickly . Two solo HRs in the b9th is rather odd especially off a guy with an 0.67 ERA but it doesnt make SEA right . He went ahead and allowed another walkoff HR his next time out . So rather say this appearance could be a sign of Morrow's regression in the near term after a great stretch some would rather say SEA was right and maybe make the same mistake next time and trust there pen in a close game. Other times failing in bases loaded situations in te 1st inning or early on can suck the life out a team leading to there later losing .
Games are to complex and made of to many factors then to just realize the last event was the play that ruined something . Which is why I say whats meant to be will be . However the game is supposed to play out is how it will play out not how we logical expect it based on the previous events of that game. Its the best way to simply say I was on to something but here was not the right place to apply it .
Look at todays board of games ? Was Cincy a bad play , did it go as I expected , did I win ?
The Reds gave a great effort and came up just short . As a MILW backer I am actually concious of all the positive breaks that happened in that game for me . I think early on reds had bases loaded no out hit a sac fly and then a DP and CC everytime beared down after allowing runners on . Think 2nd and 3rd no out another time and again single run . Should I feel wrong for beating MILW because Homer Bailey pitched better then I expected ? So what happens in teh 2nd inning is just as important to the outcome of the game as the events of the 9th inning. Again its just human nature when we are so close to think we had it right but there's a reason why people dont remember who finished second..
Same thing with Philly at one point Zona had 2 runs on 11 hits . Every failed opp allowed Philly hope and some momentum. The scoreboard reads 6-3 but if you had Philly big it wasnt smooth sailing .I expected Webb to be Zona;s downfall should I feel wrong for that win? I bet a team I am betting that team to win and its that simple . How many times have went hit unders that were like 9-0 on 9.5 totals or hit overs that were 9-1 I am sure thats not what we expected but it doesnt matter .
So I agree and understand how someone can have the right logic and make sense still to lose a tough game late . I am by no means saying there LOGIC is wrong and method of thinking was wrong . I have said though do we get paid extra for correctly guessing the game , to which we dont . So while its important for future bets to understand what happened and why it happened if the game was similar to as one expected and you lost IMO you must change something in the future becase the ALMOST result is the worst to have . It's fools gold . If people check I never said there logic was wrong and I never claimed to have great logic on how that total would lose . I simply said the TOTAL was off .
To which we discussed a game on Saturday and you expressed interest in backing MILW on the +1 RL. To which I said I think the game is lined to attract to MILW money and gave my reasons . Can I prove it before occurs ? Not really I can try to rationalize why it is so my only proof the line was off is the RESULT . To which the Wash game went over and yesterday Reds won .
Which is alot of what I am saying here . My instincts are so good at this point if I trust my reads and keep my opinion out of the equation until I have looked at the whole picture I can be quite successful. It sounds like bragging and it may sound arrogant but if I have continued to do it for so long there has to be merit to it . I simply cant be guessing right everyday for the 6 years I have posted across various sports . Its just not possible . Which is why those who oppose me think I am being hard headed . I have been on those bad beats in my earlier years and now continually put myself on the so called lucky side . Did I think the Pirates would win on Sat ? YES , I did. I didnt think it was fair for a SP with an elbow injury who was struggling with an incinsistent pen to be -130 favs on the road . Especiallly since I felt if Pitt had any clutch hitting on Friday it would have been a more intersting outcome then the 6-0 it appeared .
I got an amazing comeback but what exactly did I do other then rationalize the line ws to high and the Fri game closer then expected and with Piniero vs Snell off the DL recently being a tough spot . I felt it was now or never for Pitt . I caught a break because I thought it out well beforehand . Now today what did I do ? I play STL as I expect them to bounce back .
Some of the best things I have learned from Tuck and BC is create profiles for teams . Some teams find ways to lose and others ways to win especialy when home / away is involved. Some lineups so extreme variations in offense depending on LH or RH vs home or away scenarios.
We can only do so much and cap fundamentals. It's the same in every sport. You can't cap the little details: I mean who can say "Todd Jones will blow his save tonight". Of course you're not counting on him to do the job every single time, but if you cap the game right and use all the angles, situational, pitcher splits, h2h, lineup, ump, etc, etc, etc...in your favor...and he still goes on and blow a game after they were up 5:0 in bottom of the 9th...how is that NOT the right side, especially if you got a nice pricetag to go along with it. So if a bet is, according to your estimations, 55:45, and the actual odds say 51:49, by betting the discrepancy you should end up on top.
To me part of capping fundamentals is understanding expectations and measuring them vs reality . For instince a trap I feel into past couple of nights was betting TB to end there skid . What good indication have they shown of playing better at all in the past few days ? Outside of a 4 run 8th in a game they trailed 7-0 fom the 3rd inning on ?
Bewteen the lines is more important then surface. The simple fact everyone was willing to pay a steep price for TB with Kazmir who is struggling is a warning sign IMO . Where as with MILW I more comfortable laying a bigger price because they lose both games on sloppy plate and really late . With CC you can sort of negtate the outside influences as he pitchs deep into games .
In your example so Det is 5-0 but how did they get that lead ? Did they score early and flattened out ? Often failing to add on runs and continually stranding runners . If so then they have left the door open for the opponent and while its not logical to blow that lead those are the days it happens . Thats what you must be aware of while watching game rathering thinking how right you were because its 5-0 , flow is very important . Take NYY today for example . I knew they were inflated but guessed wrong as to why. Think about the game though . Pettitte allows a 3 run HR to give tor a 4-0 lead but Yanks top 6th had two on 1 out with Giambi and Posada but did not score . What would have happened had Giambi HR ? The outcomes of these games are decided pitch by pitch so worrying about predicting it is useless . IMO the reason why Tor hits the 3 run HR today and NYY didn was because NYY was inflated and bad lines lose . That was the caution sign to stay off NYY that I didnt pay attention to.....the signs are always there .....
The 2nd part of your post and Return on Investment is important and its great you are aware of that .
What you pointed out hopefully I touched on in the previous. I understand exactly what you are saying about "capping " a game or situation and nearly getting that payday . Again I believe its human nature to accept a close loss @ +160 rather then ask yourself what did I overvalue here or what did I undervalue to see that -180 wasnt as expensive it at looked .
Simply put there is just always some sort of tipoff to what will happen . You say you cant expect a 5 run lead to be blown but I can tell you the times it happens more often thenot is when the play is to one sided and one cant find a reason for the other side ? Like who wanted to play LAA today ? Yet , while Mosely has stunk we had to pay an enormous price for OAK because of the reputations of SP . How the market views something is very important and remember this is not about % 's it about rationale . Looking at what is happening and measuring what is expected to happen and see if it creates flaws....
Good Luck and stay in touch....like I said I am not dropping off the face of the Earth.....:cheers:
The rush I get is simply from the decision making aspect but I do admit I do force at times because I like to put myself out there . Meaning I can force a decision cause I need that rush at times to validate my opinion . Whats my opinion worth if something is not riding out is a trap I get caught up in. Which I think if I was playing for higher stakes the validation would be there from the money. Not the need to continually prove it to myself.
On the "Right side " topic is here the aspect I havent talked about . When we win a play isnt it generally a game where we get all the breaks on our side ? The line that seperates right and wrong is very thin IMO. Which is why I said those words dont apply . Alot of what I am trying to get people to realize is that even if you won 7-0 chances are your team made the timely plays in the field and on the big pitches on the mound while your offense got the big hits and the others didnt . Is that clear to understand ? Close games like 4-2 chances are the wining team got the timely hits and the big outs while the losing team didnt . So if its that general in deciphering outcomes what is wrong and what is right ? Its a guessing game to who will produce best in key spots.
Basically every game is a series of breaks . At times when we lose games late we focus on what happened last rather then realize everything that occurred in the game up to the point is what created that ending logical or illogical. Back to SEA blowing a 2 -0 lead in the 9th and people saying they were the right side . I still dont understand how . If predicting how the game will unfold is so important who really thought RA Dickey would throw a shutout and the depleted , overworked pen would finish it off ? Reality is it was just a 2-0 game even if SEA had clearly played better things can change very quickly . Two solo HRs in the b9th is rather odd especially off a guy with an 0.67 ERA but it doesnt make SEA right . He went ahead and allowed another walkoff HR his next time out . So rather say this appearance could be a sign of Morrow's regression in the near term after a great stretch some would rather say SEA was right and maybe make the same mistake next time and trust there pen in a close game. Other times failing in bases loaded situations in te 1st inning or early on can suck the life out a team leading to there later losing .
Games are to complex and made of to many factors then to just realize the last event was the play that ruined something . Which is why I say whats meant to be will be . However the game is supposed to play out is how it will play out not how we logical expect it based on the previous events of that game. Its the best way to simply say I was on to something but here was not the right place to apply it .
Look at todays board of games ? Was Cincy a bad play , did it go as I expected , did I win ?
The Reds gave a great effort and came up just short . As a MILW backer I am actually concious of all the positive breaks that happened in that game for me . I think early on reds had bases loaded no out hit a sac fly and then a DP and CC everytime beared down after allowing runners on . Think 2nd and 3rd no out another time and again single run . Should I feel wrong for beating MILW because Homer Bailey pitched better then I expected ? So what happens in teh 2nd inning is just as important to the outcome of the game as the events of the 9th inning. Again its just human nature when we are so close to think we had it right but there's a reason why people dont remember who finished second..
Same thing with Philly at one point Zona had 2 runs on 11 hits . Every failed opp allowed Philly hope and some momentum. The scoreboard reads 6-3 but if you had Philly big it wasnt smooth sailing .I expected Webb to be Zona;s downfall should I feel wrong for that win? I bet a team I am betting that team to win and its that simple . How many times have went hit unders that were like 9-0 on 9.5 totals or hit overs that were 9-1 I am sure thats not what we expected but it doesnt matter .
So I agree and understand how someone can have the right logic and make sense still to lose a tough game late . I am by no means saying there LOGIC is wrong and method of thinking was wrong . I have said though do we get paid extra for correctly guessing the game , to which we dont . So while its important for future bets to understand what happened and why it happened if the game was similar to as one expected and you lost IMO you must change something in the future becase the ALMOST result is the worst to have . It's fools gold . If people check I never said there logic was wrong and I never claimed to have great logic on how that total would lose . I simply said the TOTAL was off .
To which we discussed a game on Saturday and you expressed interest in backing MILW on the +1 RL. To which I said I think the game is lined to attract to MILW money and gave my reasons . Can I prove it before occurs ? Not really I can try to rationalize why it is so my only proof the line was off is the RESULT . To which the Wash game went over and yesterday Reds won .
Which is alot of what I am saying here . My instincts are so good at this point if I trust my reads and keep my opinion out of the equation until I have looked at the whole picture I can be quite successful. It sounds like bragging and it may sound arrogant but if I have continued to do it for so long there has to be merit to it . I simply cant be guessing right everyday for the 6 years I have posted across various sports . Its just not possible . Which is why those who oppose me think I am being hard headed . I have been on those bad beats in my earlier years and now continually put myself on the so called lucky side . Did I think the Pirates would win on Sat ? YES , I did. I didnt think it was fair for a SP with an elbow injury who was struggling with an incinsistent pen to be -130 favs on the road . Especiallly since I felt if Pitt had any clutch hitting on Friday it would have been a more intersting outcome then the 6-0 it appeared .
I got an amazing comeback but what exactly did I do other then rationalize the line ws to high and the Fri game closer then expected and with Piniero vs Snell off the DL recently being a tough spot . I felt it was now or never for Pitt . I caught a break because I thought it out well beforehand . Now today what did I do ? I play STL as I expect them to bounce back .
Some of the best things I have learned from Tuck and BC is create profiles for teams . Some teams find ways to lose and others ways to win especialy when home / away is involved. Some lineups so extreme variations in offense depending on LH or RH vs home or away scenarios.
We can only do so much and cap fundamentals. It's the same in every sport. You can't cap the little details: I mean who can say "Todd Jones will blow his save tonight". Of course you're not counting on him to do the job every single time, but if you cap the game right and use all the angles, situational, pitcher splits, h2h, lineup, ump, etc, etc, etc...in your favor...and he still goes on and blow a game after they were up 5:0 in bottom of the 9th...how is that NOT the right side, especially if you got a nice pricetag to go along with it. So if a bet is, according to your estimations, 55:45, and the actual odds say 51:49, by betting the discrepancy you should end up on top.
To me part of capping fundamentals is understanding expectations and measuring them vs reality . For instince a trap I feel into past couple of nights was betting TB to end there skid . What good indication have they shown of playing better at all in the past few days ? Outside of a 4 run 8th in a game they trailed 7-0 fom the 3rd inning on ?
Bewteen the lines is more important then surface. The simple fact everyone was willing to pay a steep price for TB with Kazmir who is struggling is a warning sign IMO . Where as with MILW I more comfortable laying a bigger price because they lose both games on sloppy plate and really late . With CC you can sort of negtate the outside influences as he pitchs deep into games .
In your example so Det is 5-0 but how did they get that lead ? Did they score early and flattened out ? Often failing to add on runs and continually stranding runners . If so then they have left the door open for the opponent and while its not logical to blow that lead those are the days it happens . Thats what you must be aware of while watching game rathering thinking how right you were because its 5-0 , flow is very important . Take NYY today for example . I knew they were inflated but guessed wrong as to why. Think about the game though . Pettitte allows a 3 run HR to give tor a 4-0 lead but Yanks top 6th had two on 1 out with Giambi and Posada but did not score . What would have happened had Giambi HR ? The outcomes of these games are decided pitch by pitch so worrying about predicting it is useless . IMO the reason why Tor hits the 3 run HR today and NYY didn was because NYY was inflated and bad lines lose . That was the caution sign to stay off NYY that I didnt pay attention to.....the signs are always there .....
The 2nd part of your post and Return on Investment is important and its great you are aware of that .
What you pointed out hopefully I touched on in the previous. I understand exactly what you are saying about "capping " a game or situation and nearly getting that payday . Again I believe its human nature to accept a close loss @ +160 rather then ask yourself what did I overvalue here or what did I undervalue to see that -180 wasnt as expensive it at looked .
Simply put there is just always some sort of tipoff to what will happen . You say you cant expect a 5 run lead to be blown but I can tell you the times it happens more often thenot is when the play is to one sided and one cant find a reason for the other side ? Like who wanted to play LAA today ? Yet , while Mosely has stunk we had to pay an enormous price for OAK because of the reputations of SP . How the market views something is very important and remember this is not about % 's it about rationale . Looking at what is happening and measuring what is expected to happen and see if it creates flaws....
Good Luck and stay in touch....like I said I am not dropping off the face of the Earth.....:cheers:
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
It's a little late, but thanks Jimbo and nakina.
Oh, and SN, this place is like the Hotel California. You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
=)
Oh, and SN, this place is like the Hotel California. You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave.
=)
I think the main issue is I understand the stance people have of logical bets and I agree logical does not make it wrong . Which is why I continue to say wrong is improper .....but the goal is to win not be logical thats what IMO makes gambling tough . You cant just predict what will happen based on common knowledge because most people will come to the same conclusion . You have to use a wider approach of information IMO.
Back to this game here is the scenario as I saw it .....
1st 2 games of the series were :
2-0 and 5-0 .
Arizona struggling on offense for a good while and Nats the same both at there worst vs RHSP.
The 2-0 game the total was 7.5 with Webb vs Odalis Perez . It came nowhere near the posted total. Come Game 3 you have Haren who shut them down @ Arizona already like Webb had done previously . However Haren has been lights out of lately were as Webb had not . For Wash we had Bergmann who except for a stretch of starts had been lights out as well and in my estimations was worth more on the total then Perez who is LH and doesnt go deep into games was. Also Bergmann has pitched 8 innings 4 runs @ Zona . The thre times they faced Webb (twice) and Haren Wash ahd not scored .....Nats park is IMO a pitchers park as well
So looking at this in my mind I would have expected to see a 7 -110 total hell 6.5 would have not shocked me as eithe team rarely cracked 3 vs RHP in the past month . The series opener was not even close probably had a better SP matchup and perception was clearly neither team could hit or score .
So why did they open it 7.5 again ? With a stronger indication it would go under . Surely they knew under money would be rolling in ? Bergmann's run support was NIL in his last 10 starts as he once got more then 3 runs . Haren was lights out shutting them down in Zona and they had done worse vs RHP since then and Bergmann if he could do 8 inn 4 runs away whose to say he couldnt do 3 runs or 2 runs ? Nothing pointed any offense in the game .
So why not open it at 7 worst case and still get stuck with an under bias ?
Thats how I developed my logic and CKR mentioned a buyback which I saw occur near 1st pitch as Pinnacle closed it at 7 over -107 where most books were 7 under -120 some under -115 ......
The End - I hope :36_11_6::cheers:
I could never forget about chatting football JP ! At least NFL is once a week event !
I am to close to all of you guys especially yourself to just never want to hear from you guys again......:cheers:
Jimbo- You impress me all the time. For 21 you are well beyond years . I understand where you were coming from as well at the time . It's frustrating and as dejected as you were I was probably equally estatic that trusting myself actually paid off in the end.
As far as styles I certainly agree that there is no one way to do anything in sports wagering . If there was it would be easy for books to adjust . I always labeled myself more of a trader then gambler or even handicapper . I have evolved just as much as any person doing this and continue to learn to how to approach this. What I have learned I do my best to share so people can avoid mistakes and "humps" I was stuck on . The key is to keep learning and evolving staying one step ahead ..
I am glad that you feel like you have realized that sports are not personal. That the outcomes do not happen to us and should not be taking to heart . I think if at 21 you understand how our egos want to tell us we are correct when infact we werent you are light years ahead of me and most others not only in this but in life . I know abit deep for a sports forum but it shows a willingless to listen and reflect to on something that you didnt agree with just days ago. Like I said before when I said EGO I didnt mean it specifically but as in the human ego . I lost Oak today and I myself rather then curse Street said I should have known better . Just leave it at that and move on . Shit happens.
You know you can always PM me here or email me . Glad you hit that 4 teamer today as well . I know you can continue to do well and hopefully having a clear head helps . Right and wrong dont matter only winning and losing ......
:cheers:Kinda burnt out after all the above posts so kept it short
As far as styles I certainly agree that there is no one way to do anything in sports wagering . If there was it would be easy for books to adjust . I always labeled myself more of a trader then gambler or even handicapper . I have evolved just as much as any person doing this and continue to learn to how to approach this. What I have learned I do my best to share so people can avoid mistakes and "humps" I was stuck on . The key is to keep learning and evolving staying one step ahead ..
I am glad that you feel like you have realized that sports are not personal. That the outcomes do not happen to us and should not be taking to heart . I think if at 21 you understand how our egos want to tell us we are correct when infact we werent you are light years ahead of me and most others not only in this but in life . I know abit deep for a sports forum but it shows a willingless to listen and reflect to on something that you didnt agree with just days ago. Like I said before when I said EGO I didnt mean it specifically but as in the human ego . I lost Oak today and I myself rather then curse Street said I should have known better . Just leave it at that and move on . Shit happens.
You know you can always PM me here or email me . Glad you hit that 4 teamer today as well . I know you can continue to do well and hopefully having a clear head helps . Right and wrong dont matter only winning and losing ......
:cheers:Kinda burnt out after all the above posts so kept it short
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
We must agree to disagree, nut.
You make a determination of what percent a given game will fall to which team or which side of a total and compare your determination to a price( price just being a word to replace odds , since that is all that a price is ). In other words , lets say each of your sides that you think win at 70% ( i will get back to this later ) would you lay -250 on those games ? That's what i am saying. You say that all that matters is who wins that day. There is no 100% bet in sports. We bet prior to the game. Therefore we have to make determinations on our own about what a fair price is... that is the beast that is handicapping.
Where have you come up with the number 70% expectancy on your side bets of favorites and sides on dogs of +129 or lower ?? It can't be from results. Not a capper in the world who can predict at that rate. You also play a lot of plays in a given day ... and you think you are making picks with a 70% expectancy ?? No way.
I do know what you are saying about feeling like something is just "off" , i call those "smelly lines". I have made a fortune betting smelly lines. Because in the end they are bad numbers. Now , sometimes i am sure the numbers are right and i have made a misevaluation and so they smell bad to me but they shouldn't. As a sports bettor it is my job to bet "smelly lines" , and every single bet that i make it is because i feel the line is off from my expectancy of how the game ends. Lets say i made the longhorns a 10 point favorite over michigan state and the line came out longhorns minus 2 instead. The idea that i should not only not bet texas but bet the other side because something is just off , doesnt hold for me. Why bother capping to begin with .... in every instance i find something of value to bet doesnt there have to be some level of smelliness ( off-ness ) to the line ??
EV is the God of gambling. EV is the God of gambling. EV is the god of gambling.
In the case of sports handicapping , where the actual odds of the result can't be figured mathematically, we are comparing our analysis of what we believe the percent for each occurence is vs that of the posted line.
I have soaked up everything you have had to say on this particular subject and still feel your thinking is severely flawed in this aspect. You have soaked up everything i have had to say on this particular subject and still feel that my thinking is severely flawed in this aspect. We will have to agree to disagree.
I think you are an incredibly bright guy and wish you the best in whatever you do from here forward and hope your appearances in the forum are closer to daily than weekly.
You make a determination of what percent a given game will fall to which team or which side of a total and compare your determination to a price( price just being a word to replace odds , since that is all that a price is ). In other words , lets say each of your sides that you think win at 70% ( i will get back to this later ) would you lay -250 on those games ? That's what i am saying. You say that all that matters is who wins that day. There is no 100% bet in sports. We bet prior to the game. Therefore we have to make determinations on our own about what a fair price is... that is the beast that is handicapping.
Where have you come up with the number 70% expectancy on your side bets of favorites and sides on dogs of +129 or lower ?? It can't be from results. Not a capper in the world who can predict at that rate. You also play a lot of plays in a given day ... and you think you are making picks with a 70% expectancy ?? No way.
I do know what you are saying about feeling like something is just "off" , i call those "smelly lines". I have made a fortune betting smelly lines. Because in the end they are bad numbers. Now , sometimes i am sure the numbers are right and i have made a misevaluation and so they smell bad to me but they shouldn't. As a sports bettor it is my job to bet "smelly lines" , and every single bet that i make it is because i feel the line is off from my expectancy of how the game ends. Lets say i made the longhorns a 10 point favorite over michigan state and the line came out longhorns minus 2 instead. The idea that i should not only not bet texas but bet the other side because something is just off , doesnt hold for me. Why bother capping to begin with .... in every instance i find something of value to bet doesnt there have to be some level of smelliness ( off-ness ) to the line ??
EV is the God of gambling. EV is the God of gambling. EV is the god of gambling.
In the case of sports handicapping , where the actual odds of the result can't be figured mathematically, we are comparing our analysis of what we believe the percent for each occurence is vs that of the posted line.
I have soaked up everything you have had to say on this particular subject and still feel your thinking is severely flawed in this aspect. You have soaked up everything i have had to say on this particular subject and still feel that my thinking is severely flawed in this aspect. We will have to agree to disagree.
I think you are an incredibly bright guy and wish you the best in whatever you do from here forward and hope your appearances in the forum are closer to daily than weekly.
Very good points and really what we are saying isnt very disimiliar I dont think.
I think part of why we are disagreeing on the surface is use of examples . There really arent many game priced above -200 . So most games are priced with a 66.7 chance or less of winning and most consider above -150 pricey but in reality its a just 60% implied . So most higher priced games really have implied odds of 60-67 % . Which is a point I was trying to make and failed to do so . So if I thought I had a team had a 70% chance and I dont get specific I sort of note a % where I feel very comfortable is the worst case scenario that such and such team wins based on surrounding events and situation(s). So there are not that many judgement calls to be made at these high stakes . Clearly I would lay -160 something I felt had a 70% win rate . Would I ever lay -250 on a game that I thought had a 70% chance of hitting . Rarely and I mean rarely( as in maybe 3-5 times a year). Only If I felt the high price was created to disuade fav backers . Meaning if the price was determined fair through my research and the market felt it was to high . In spread sports this comes up more when a LINE looks to high and I research it , find it to be accurate and feel comfortable playing a high spread . Again its about perception not looking at the event as so literal . I might not pay that price on any other day eve again ! Go back to Friday and someone asked if I liked the Yankee under @ 7.5 and my response was I needed to see Halladay on extended rest and cause I felt 7.5 was where it should be if the number held . Halladay is very good on extra rest and the total held 7.5 w/o extreme movement on the vig . So I played it . Had it went to 7 I would have passed. So its a combination of understanding where things should be as well how it is bet or perceived.
I wasnt exactly saying I was hitting 70% of my plays . I was saying in my estimation the play I was making on that day would win 70% of the time based on my research. Which is a PURE educatd guess on my part . Probably should have not included the +130 price as its rather long to explain ( dogs clearly lower odds needed) . I played SFG today @ +120 and I cant say I ever expected them to win at 70% but would say I felt very comfortable they win this game better then 60% of the time on the heels of consecutive failed comebacks , alosing streak and vs a 10-0 home SP. The 70% figure is what I use for favs usually. My bigger plays like Houston today or NYY yesterday I can bet confidently that they will IMO at the time cap it under that days context win 70 of 100 times ( at least). I got to lay -110 and -130 on such plays which is something I look for . Which is why I say I think people do not understand implied odds very well. Those situations IMO demanded odds above -200 but that would be asburd on the surface but its how I attack things . There also isnt much of a difference bewteen 60 and 70% its a variance of 5 outcomes .. which makes lil difference bewteen hitting 60 and 66.7 % . Which is why I thought people made to big a deal over UMPS with 55% trends it really no different then 50% as 2 reversed outcomes makes its a neutral bias ( exactly 50%). So never meant to imply that I was hitting 70% but this is one of the weeks were my strongest plays did .
In MLB sides I do much better on and would say for the week I probably played nearly the entire board and at least the past 4 days hit at least 67% of my plays but I dont flat bet so at times I fuck myself and I am fucking with props and parlays as ways to risk less win more and week to weeks it different results with that type shit .
Actually today all posted I went 10-2 on sides but then lost the last 3 to take me to 10-5 and really only SD was a significant play of the last 3 . So I kinda forced a side play and still hit 67% . Pretty sure the past 3 days I hit at least 67% on sides and the day before that hit for 15 units and cashed my last 9 plays . Still its a small sample of what I play again handcuffed by no bankroll its tough to build something out of nothing . When I get locked in I can go on crazy runs like the NCAA Bowl Season or NCAABs where I hit something like 20 of 23 Bowl plays . Think 1st year here in MLBplayoffs hit something like 17 straight . Again not sustainable because I lack focus and its just to much hard work on a daily basis to be successful with such limited resources.
With me as I said no bankroll makes life much harder as I the fear of losing is very real and no matter how well I do I dont get cocky about it . Plus I truly do suffer from many forms of mental illness suhc as sever anxiety and ADD . Just cause I am in good groove I never know what tmrw brings ..Time is a HUGE issuse for me . Its 2 AM now I never really cap much this late but troubling sleeping means I wakeup late and today by the time I got capping it was nearly 12 and had 1 to 2 hours to look at sides and totals for most of the day . Mix in a few PMs a day and posting my thoughts on almsot every game and possible trying to concince someone of something . I am often left short on time. Today should have been my best day of the year and wasnt even close . 10-5 on sides and 6-1 on totals and I pissed a good deal away on a couple of RLs , some parlays and 1 unit on MILW 1st 5 inn was retarded...losing -260...think my best Sunday was just shy of 30 units...
As to why bother capping ? Simple . Everyone needs a foundation to work with . You have to know where line should be to be successful. I think you are mistaken if you believe I would simply bet the opposite of something without knowing why it was worth betting . Again , though as far as understanding where a line should be I do it much better then most . I agree its our job to snuff out bad lines but handicapping is so overrated in the big picture . Like I said OIL is seemingly overpriced since it hit 100 but that mentality costs 45% in profits . The current climate is what created the situation for oil and thats how I view sports . I like to know what stats occur and how the occur as I do outcomes .
Perfect example mets under on Sat . Everyone is saying Jiminez cant duplicate his Milw outing and Pedro got blasted @ COL. Which I PMed someone here (Satyr I believe) that this was very untrue if you looked at the data and broke it down there was clear reason to expect both to pitch well .
Again back to human ego . Why are you correct if a line should be -10 in your estimation and you see minus -2 ?? No line is ever off that much . Books would be out of business if things where that simple . If I come up with something that looks crazy like your described situation I ask myself what have I missed and do it again. Chances are I missed something to get it closer to whats posted . I prefer to acknowledge most lines are tight and in tune to what the market expects . Which is why value comes more from the situation then the price . In regards to the smelly line theory I tell most people its accurate it just looks off because most dont know where it should be because we have overvalued someone or something .
How is a team like the WSox favored in Texas ? Makes no sense but the market supports it .......
I do get what you are saying and I dont think we disagree deeply . However I do think where we differ is I dont look at this stuff to be literal . Stats are a mirage unless you look closely at them ...h/a , d/n , L/R and so on and so on current week , current month ....same thing with a SP and even more so I want to see atbat by atbat what happened ......
There is an old saying or mentality I guess . Thats whatever you see on the front of a financial magazine SELL ! If they are talking about Gold it sell it , OIL sell it .....real estate , you know why ? Perception .....by the time they get around to seeing these things as good investments they are overpriced and then uninformed readers come in an drive the prices up further before it falls sharply ....same shit with the housing market once everyone seemed to own a house you knew the shit was about to hit the fan......which is where I developed my thoughts on obvious plays .....there simply is never value in the obvious you always pay a premium ....doubt is a great ally......
people doubted the Mets at -230 today and they won 7-0.......me I looked for a reason to take the + payout and wasted 2 units ........I know my mistake and hope to correct it in the future .....
Also in developing probablities for plays take teams with extrem results - like Chicago at home or Col away .....you get a 75% probability just based on record Cubs 37-12 ....
I am beat maybe we are closer to be ing on the same path . As I said I dont disagree with you as much as think as nothing as cut and dry as it seems....:shake:
I think part of why we are disagreeing on the surface is use of examples . There really arent many game priced above -200 . So most games are priced with a 66.7 chance or less of winning and most consider above -150 pricey but in reality its a just 60% implied . So most higher priced games really have implied odds of 60-67 % . Which is a point I was trying to make and failed to do so . So if I thought I had a team had a 70% chance and I dont get specific I sort of note a % where I feel very comfortable is the worst case scenario that such and such team wins based on surrounding events and situation(s). So there are not that many judgement calls to be made at these high stakes . Clearly I would lay -160 something I felt had a 70% win rate . Would I ever lay -250 on a game that I thought had a 70% chance of hitting . Rarely and I mean rarely( as in maybe 3-5 times a year). Only If I felt the high price was created to disuade fav backers . Meaning if the price was determined fair through my research and the market felt it was to high . In spread sports this comes up more when a LINE looks to high and I research it , find it to be accurate and feel comfortable playing a high spread . Again its about perception not looking at the event as so literal . I might not pay that price on any other day eve again ! Go back to Friday and someone asked if I liked the Yankee under @ 7.5 and my response was I needed to see Halladay on extended rest and cause I felt 7.5 was where it should be if the number held . Halladay is very good on extra rest and the total held 7.5 w/o extreme movement on the vig . So I played it . Had it went to 7 I would have passed. So its a combination of understanding where things should be as well how it is bet or perceived.
I wasnt exactly saying I was hitting 70% of my plays . I was saying in my estimation the play I was making on that day would win 70% of the time based on my research. Which is a PURE educatd guess on my part . Probably should have not included the +130 price as its rather long to explain ( dogs clearly lower odds needed) . I played SFG today @ +120 and I cant say I ever expected them to win at 70% but would say I felt very comfortable they win this game better then 60% of the time on the heels of consecutive failed comebacks , alosing streak and vs a 10-0 home SP. The 70% figure is what I use for favs usually. My bigger plays like Houston today or NYY yesterday I can bet confidently that they will IMO at the time cap it under that days context win 70 of 100 times ( at least). I got to lay -110 and -130 on such plays which is something I look for . Which is why I say I think people do not understand implied odds very well. Those situations IMO demanded odds above -200 but that would be asburd on the surface but its how I attack things . There also isnt much of a difference bewteen 60 and 70% its a variance of 5 outcomes .. which makes lil difference bewteen hitting 60 and 66.7 % . Which is why I thought people made to big a deal over UMPS with 55% trends it really no different then 50% as 2 reversed outcomes makes its a neutral bias ( exactly 50%). So never meant to imply that I was hitting 70% but this is one of the weeks were my strongest plays did .
In MLB sides I do much better on and would say for the week I probably played nearly the entire board and at least the past 4 days hit at least 67% of my plays but I dont flat bet so at times I fuck myself and I am fucking with props and parlays as ways to risk less win more and week to weeks it different results with that type shit .
Actually today all posted I went 10-2 on sides but then lost the last 3 to take me to 10-5 and really only SD was a significant play of the last 3 . So I kinda forced a side play and still hit 67% . Pretty sure the past 3 days I hit at least 67% on sides and the day before that hit for 15 units and cashed my last 9 plays . Still its a small sample of what I play again handcuffed by no bankroll its tough to build something out of nothing . When I get locked in I can go on crazy runs like the NCAA Bowl Season or NCAABs where I hit something like 20 of 23 Bowl plays . Think 1st year here in MLBplayoffs hit something like 17 straight . Again not sustainable because I lack focus and its just to much hard work on a daily basis to be successful with such limited resources.
With me as I said no bankroll makes life much harder as I the fear of losing is very real and no matter how well I do I dont get cocky about it . Plus I truly do suffer from many forms of mental illness suhc as sever anxiety and ADD . Just cause I am in good groove I never know what tmrw brings ..Time is a HUGE issuse for me . Its 2 AM now I never really cap much this late but troubling sleeping means I wakeup late and today by the time I got capping it was nearly 12 and had 1 to 2 hours to look at sides and totals for most of the day . Mix in a few PMs a day and posting my thoughts on almsot every game and possible trying to concince someone of something . I am often left short on time. Today should have been my best day of the year and wasnt even close . 10-5 on sides and 6-1 on totals and I pissed a good deal away on a couple of RLs , some parlays and 1 unit on MILW 1st 5 inn was retarded...losing -260...think my best Sunday was just shy of 30 units...
As to why bother capping ? Simple . Everyone needs a foundation to work with . You have to know where line should be to be successful. I think you are mistaken if you believe I would simply bet the opposite of something without knowing why it was worth betting . Again , though as far as understanding where a line should be I do it much better then most . I agree its our job to snuff out bad lines but handicapping is so overrated in the big picture . Like I said OIL is seemingly overpriced since it hit 100 but that mentality costs 45% in profits . The current climate is what created the situation for oil and thats how I view sports . I like to know what stats occur and how the occur as I do outcomes .
Perfect example mets under on Sat . Everyone is saying Jiminez cant duplicate his Milw outing and Pedro got blasted @ COL. Which I PMed someone here (Satyr I believe) that this was very untrue if you looked at the data and broke it down there was clear reason to expect both to pitch well .
Again back to human ego . Why are you correct if a line should be -10 in your estimation and you see minus -2 ?? No line is ever off that much . Books would be out of business if things where that simple . If I come up with something that looks crazy like your described situation I ask myself what have I missed and do it again. Chances are I missed something to get it closer to whats posted . I prefer to acknowledge most lines are tight and in tune to what the market expects . Which is why value comes more from the situation then the price . In regards to the smelly line theory I tell most people its accurate it just looks off because most dont know where it should be because we have overvalued someone or something .
How is a team like the WSox favored in Texas ? Makes no sense but the market supports it .......
I do get what you are saying and I dont think we disagree deeply . However I do think where we differ is I dont look at this stuff to be literal . Stats are a mirage unless you look closely at them ...h/a , d/n , L/R and so on and so on current week , current month ....same thing with a SP and even more so I want to see atbat by atbat what happened ......
There is an old saying or mentality I guess . Thats whatever you see on the front of a financial magazine SELL ! If they are talking about Gold it sell it , OIL sell it .....real estate , you know why ? Perception .....by the time they get around to seeing these things as good investments they are overpriced and then uninformed readers come in an drive the prices up further before it falls sharply ....same shit with the housing market once everyone seemed to own a house you knew the shit was about to hit the fan......which is where I developed my thoughts on obvious plays .....there simply is never value in the obvious you always pay a premium ....doubt is a great ally......
people doubted the Mets at -230 today and they won 7-0.......me I looked for a reason to take the + payout and wasted 2 units ........I know my mistake and hope to correct it in the future .....
Also in developing probablities for plays take teams with extrem results - like Chicago at home or Col away .....you get a 75% probability just based on record Cubs 37-12 ....
I am beat maybe we are closer to be ing on the same path . As I said I dont disagree with you as much as think as nothing as cut and dry as it seems....:shake:
Amazing I could leave something out BUT what I am saying is your are trying to beat the market just as much as the line . I dont people get that aspect ....Which goes back to who is buying and why and who is selling and why ? The line starts as a reflection of the expected market and afterwards tends to be a reflection of the market by close . So I want cheap lines that dont look cheap to everyone and guess that's my point
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Thanks SC and Tide . I really appreciate the compliments that my opinion holds value . It's just so time consuming for me and takes away from everything else I do(especially gambling wise ) and keeps me from doing things I NEED do . Especially since I have OCD and ADD which tend to keeps me locked in and hyperfocused more then avg person . As I said I wont disappear people can get in touch with me if need be. I just dont want that to come across shady in any way , its just I have been known to disappear without a word . GL:cheers:
VegasKyle- Thanks as well. Knowing your a veteran and older then myself as is SC , I highly respect what you have to say becuase of the experience you have. I absolutely agree everyone has there way of approaching things and hope I didnt come off as different . I think while we may disagee on the topic of price and value , its more an issues of semantics then being opposite . I appreciate your responses and patience in trying to allow me to better explain myself . Which I probably still sucked at but hopefully I was somewhat clearer . As I said always just a PM , email or IM away ......:cheers:
VegasKyle- Thanks as well. Knowing your a veteran and older then myself as is SC , I highly respect what you have to say becuase of the experience you have. I absolutely agree everyone has there way of approaching things and hope I didnt come off as different . I think while we may disagee on the topic of price and value , its more an issues of semantics then being opposite . I appreciate your responses and patience in trying to allow me to better explain myself . Which I probably still sucked at but hopefully I was somewhat clearer . As I said always just a PM , email or IM away ......:cheers:
Hopefully this thread brought some new ideas and approaches to the surface . I have tried my best to explain my points but I am sure at times I may not be clear. By no means was I saying there is a correct way to do things and again apologize if at anytime I sounded like that . My intent was never to try and convince anyone of anything other then share my thought process developed from my years on Wall Street and my years gambling on sports. Which I feel is the reason why I am successful . I dont even like the word gambling because I really dont feel sports wagering is gambling . Playing Craps is gambling IMO or other casino games . You can find valid edges IMO.
If you know anything about me its that I dont believe there is any ONE way to approach sports wagering or anything in life for that matter . Which is the point I was trying to make here . Some games I rely more heavily on " my capping " , some games I rely more heavily on how the line set , some games I rely more heavily on the perception of the teams or SP's involved . Still though the main theme is perception regardless of how you approach it . When I say my capping as I said before the believe the term is overused . What is capping ? Isnt it looking at data and making an educated guess on what will occur ? So doesnt that involve perception ?? I think it does . Plus Players are not consistent for the most part . They dont have similiar stats home or away , day or night , LH vs RHP so when capping you have to make educated guesses based on these variances in statistical outcomes plus most people dont really center on capping the team as much as the indivual player/ SP . A trait of all bad teams is they find ways to lose . We see often in the College Ranks where a big upset is about to happen and a big lead is pissed away late in the game usually killing a nice ML payout . However this is something you can be aware of - bad teams find ways to lose and incorporate that into your decision . Rather then watching the "bad team" lead for 95% of the way until to collapse late and claim to have had the right side . There is always some sort of caution sign to think about it or STOP sign we ignore . Without giving examples another motto I live by is bad lines lose but especially when a heavy majority are backing that bad line . Why it happens exactly - I dont know but I can tell you it does . As I said before and GMan reiterated the odds are basically a perception tool to get balanced action ( not equal action) which still doesnt always occur( again I mean balanced action doesnt always occur) . So we have to know how things should be priced and when they vary we should ask why it does . With understanding the perception of the "market" this isnt something one should care to use for every game across every sport . It's more for plays that seem lopsided or easy . First they might not be easy to everyone which is a good thing because you may have discovered a hidden gem. If it is obvious to everyone then you must ask how will this game play out and I am overlooking or not acknowledging something . Easy plays do to win at times but know there is a reason . This is more Wall Street and stock market orientated thinking . I want to know why people are buying or selling the favorite . Meaning I want to know the reason why people will lay the chalk and see if there arguemnet is valid . Also I want to know who the "sellers" are ( the people playing the dog are technically selling the favorite IMO) and there logic .
Especially when lines move heavily in favor of the dog or the under because its not the normal mentality .
It does come down to the fact misperception will always be around . Just when the Stock Market was reaching new highs we all knew the darkest time was about to approach but still the market skyrocketed up.
An example would be the METS. Many of us were fooled by the price arguement on Sunday . Now just because they proved to be worth -240 on Sunday doesnt mean they are now worth laying high prices with . So while I feel foolish for falling ofr COL on Sunday doesnt mean I accept NYM is worth -240 ish everyday forward now but that day they were nor do I believe that COL is always going to lostaway games at 72% clip it may get better or worse (consistency is rare). Each event is indivual with a new set of circumstances . Granted sometimes it is just as simple as fading cold teams and playing hot ones. It greats tricky when they start adjusting the prices each day creating a new decision . Hell look at TB another great example . They were cruising and on a nice run lose on Monday and a week later who saw them losing 7 straight ? Probably no one . Which is again my point about perception .
As far as the topic of EGO. I tried my best to show that I was not referring to anyone specific here when I spoke of the subject . It was comment on our human nature . Our biggest failing as indivuals and humans is letting our ego's trick us. Everyone has heard the stories of people who came into money and fame and later changed . Why is that a common theme? People start to believe what people are saying about them . They fall into the trap I was trying to point out . Telling yourself a LOSING PLAY was indeed RIGHT is a function of ego . These stars who are overcome by fame and fortune usually lose the people in there lives who kept them grounded and to steal a phrase "Keep them Real" . As in humble , down to Earth and not believing the hype . A LOSING PLAY can certainly be logical , rational and well thought out but the fact remains it still LOST. As I explained many times we FOCUS only on the ending rather what happen before that ending . Each play or each pitch has a great signficance in the final outcome of the game and that is what we bet : FINAL OUTCOMES. It nothing something that just mysetriously happens when a team chokes . In capping terms when a play we capped looks so accurate and so right for a period in the game we then want it to win to prove we are right , once it doesnt win we show resentment , anger , blame and complain . Which goes to my point about not taking it personal. The outcome was NOT specific to you so it was done to you . So you should not feel the need to inflate your ego by saying you were correct . Which I am trying to say when you lose a bet go over it and ask what did I miss? I assure you something was missed or improperly weighed . It's one of the greatest progressions I have taken as a sports bettor. Acknowledging I made a mistake and living with it . Everyone tries to inflate there egos on some level . Funny part was I started reading A New Earth by Echart Tolle on a train ride yesterday and this was a huge topic of the early prtion of his book. It was rather strange I had the time yesterday to read this book and that was the topic of the early chapters . Anyway ...
Going back to the game that started this all. Its not about me saying I am or feeling I am right . I said I dont apply those words . Even if did feel I was right what logical arguement makes the LOSING play better then the WINNING play ? Can we see the absurdity in that ?? Thats really what was I trying to express . Rather then see I missed something and whatever point was missed ( how the line was set , both teams already in 2 low scoring games , weak bullpens or defense , whatever it was ) there were still reason to be cautious and still warning signs. My experience says the best way to be successful longterm is listen to your intution when "you know better" or feel you see a warning sign . I will never completely master that skill no one probably will because it is what makes us human. I look at Sunday and all 5 LOSSES I rejected the warning signs because I wanted my opinion to be right . I know that 100% beyond a shadow of a doubt. bet COL for price reasons when in fact they lose 72% of there away games and just based on that a "fair price" or scientific price as GMan was looking for would be -260 . Slightily less because they did not lose yet on Sunday so they were 14-35 . Now I would never cap a game that literally but when you factor NYM is HOT as could be (27-18 at home ) , Pelfrey off some great starts generally allowing 3 runs or less in his home games , Redman being an over the hill LH started barely ML worthy , NY allowing 4 runs in 5 games and COL off a stretch of 1 run scores . How really were the odds better then 70% COL would NOT LOSE that game ? On the surface we think Mike Pelfrey and NY laying -230 is crazy but yet it was still cheaper then situation dictated ....
Which is why I keep saying PRICE is an ILLUSION . It does not create value . The situation or context the game under creates the value and if the price is in your favor thats how plays should be developed. Most times the situation if accurately figured heavily outweighs the price . Thats why a -250 fav can present value because if you can accurately and realistically impy that the real value of situation is 80% then you are paying -250 for a -400 situation . So situation and context are KEY for me . If other people are having success doing it differently thats great . I guess my biggest pet peave is the ONLY time I ever feel suckered on a play is when I make the play based on price as I did COL on Sunday. Thats the only type play that I feel like I am a dumbass for making . I think everyone should feel that way to some degree because again I think price should not be the sole determant. It's role is important because it's what gives us a possible edge but its not what creates that edge . If we are unsure we should pass but many times we dont again because we like to feel like we are getting something for nothing. Why do people pay high prices for NYY regardless of play ? Cause we all get trapped into looking at the surface rather then dig deeper . Yanks have great names and a great reputation so we are more willing to pay high prices w/o thinking about it deeply . I hate myself for playing Pettitte on Sunday when my 1st insticnt and last instinct was this price is crazy absurd . To round it up say Tor was -120 Halladay vs Joba and Yanks -150 Pettitte vs Burnett . The 1st thing I realize is Tor probably went off Friday to cheap by about 15 cents . The next thing is while Joba has fantastic stuff and can be lights out a good start from ndy Petitte will produce similiar stats . So while they are not equal there is not a great difference either . With Burnett almost similair . Halladay is a much better SP but his stuff is not much better . A good outing from Burnett is little different from a good outing from Halladay . Just from that I expect NYY to be no higherthen -120 but opened higher adn went higher ...STOP SIGN .....and I zoomed through it . With the Mets now at least they opened near -160 and had been -140 previously while COL was sending out its worst SP of the series so it did open way cheap IMO and got bet up a different svenario.....
Anyway , I hope I helped cleared up some disagreements while trying to show there is alot of thinking that goes into my decisions . As well as some points that maybe people can use to better there skills . I asked myself was my posting a function of ego? Really I dont think it was at least not in the past few years . What I got from posting was vindication but vindication in the sense I needed to prove to myself since I was really so messed up mentally that even though I couldnt work I still was useful. It did build my confidence but I dont feel like I will ever believe I as I useful or helpful as you have commented . Thats the truth .
Hopefully I shared as much as I could think of on what I do and how I do it . As well as how important it is to be perceptive and aware . Granted my perceptive nature is what got me stressed out but its also an asset.
GL CTG. All you guys know how to get in touch with me ...:cheers::shake:
Thanks for listening and reading ....
If you know anything about me its that I dont believe there is any ONE way to approach sports wagering or anything in life for that matter . Which is the point I was trying to make here . Some games I rely more heavily on " my capping " , some games I rely more heavily on how the line set , some games I rely more heavily on the perception of the teams or SP's involved . Still though the main theme is perception regardless of how you approach it . When I say my capping as I said before the believe the term is overused . What is capping ? Isnt it looking at data and making an educated guess on what will occur ? So doesnt that involve perception ?? I think it does . Plus Players are not consistent for the most part . They dont have similiar stats home or away , day or night , LH vs RHP so when capping you have to make educated guesses based on these variances in statistical outcomes plus most people dont really center on capping the team as much as the indivual player/ SP . A trait of all bad teams is they find ways to lose . We see often in the College Ranks where a big upset is about to happen and a big lead is pissed away late in the game usually killing a nice ML payout . However this is something you can be aware of - bad teams find ways to lose and incorporate that into your decision . Rather then watching the "bad team" lead for 95% of the way until to collapse late and claim to have had the right side . There is always some sort of caution sign to think about it or STOP sign we ignore . Without giving examples another motto I live by is bad lines lose but especially when a heavy majority are backing that bad line . Why it happens exactly - I dont know but I can tell you it does . As I said before and GMan reiterated the odds are basically a perception tool to get balanced action ( not equal action) which still doesnt always occur( again I mean balanced action doesnt always occur) . So we have to know how things should be priced and when they vary we should ask why it does . With understanding the perception of the "market" this isnt something one should care to use for every game across every sport . It's more for plays that seem lopsided or easy . First they might not be easy to everyone which is a good thing because you may have discovered a hidden gem. If it is obvious to everyone then you must ask how will this game play out and I am overlooking or not acknowledging something . Easy plays do to win at times but know there is a reason . This is more Wall Street and stock market orientated thinking . I want to know why people are buying or selling the favorite . Meaning I want to know the reason why people will lay the chalk and see if there arguemnet is valid . Also I want to know who the "sellers" are ( the people playing the dog are technically selling the favorite IMO) and there logic .
Especially when lines move heavily in favor of the dog or the under because its not the normal mentality .
It does come down to the fact misperception will always be around . Just when the Stock Market was reaching new highs we all knew the darkest time was about to approach but still the market skyrocketed up.
An example would be the METS. Many of us were fooled by the price arguement on Sunday . Now just because they proved to be worth -240 on Sunday doesnt mean they are now worth laying high prices with . So while I feel foolish for falling ofr COL on Sunday doesnt mean I accept NYM is worth -240 ish everyday forward now but that day they were nor do I believe that COL is always going to lostaway games at 72% clip it may get better or worse (consistency is rare). Each event is indivual with a new set of circumstances . Granted sometimes it is just as simple as fading cold teams and playing hot ones. It greats tricky when they start adjusting the prices each day creating a new decision . Hell look at TB another great example . They were cruising and on a nice run lose on Monday and a week later who saw them losing 7 straight ? Probably no one . Which is again my point about perception .
As far as the topic of EGO. I tried my best to show that I was not referring to anyone specific here when I spoke of the subject . It was comment on our human nature . Our biggest failing as indivuals and humans is letting our ego's trick us. Everyone has heard the stories of people who came into money and fame and later changed . Why is that a common theme? People start to believe what people are saying about them . They fall into the trap I was trying to point out . Telling yourself a LOSING PLAY was indeed RIGHT is a function of ego . These stars who are overcome by fame and fortune usually lose the people in there lives who kept them grounded and to steal a phrase "Keep them Real" . As in humble , down to Earth and not believing the hype . A LOSING PLAY can certainly be logical , rational and well thought out but the fact remains it still LOST. As I explained many times we FOCUS only on the ending rather what happen before that ending . Each play or each pitch has a great signficance in the final outcome of the game and that is what we bet : FINAL OUTCOMES. It nothing something that just mysetriously happens when a team chokes . In capping terms when a play we capped looks so accurate and so right for a period in the game we then want it to win to prove we are right , once it doesnt win we show resentment , anger , blame and complain . Which goes to my point about not taking it personal. The outcome was NOT specific to you so it was done to you . So you should not feel the need to inflate your ego by saying you were correct . Which I am trying to say when you lose a bet go over it and ask what did I miss? I assure you something was missed or improperly weighed . It's one of the greatest progressions I have taken as a sports bettor. Acknowledging I made a mistake and living with it . Everyone tries to inflate there egos on some level . Funny part was I started reading A New Earth by Echart Tolle on a train ride yesterday and this was a huge topic of the early prtion of his book. It was rather strange I had the time yesterday to read this book and that was the topic of the early chapters . Anyway ...
Going back to the game that started this all. Its not about me saying I am or feeling I am right . I said I dont apply those words . Even if did feel I was right what logical arguement makes the LOSING play better then the WINNING play ? Can we see the absurdity in that ?? Thats really what was I trying to express . Rather then see I missed something and whatever point was missed ( how the line was set , both teams already in 2 low scoring games , weak bullpens or defense , whatever it was ) there were still reason to be cautious and still warning signs. My experience says the best way to be successful longterm is listen to your intution when "you know better" or feel you see a warning sign . I will never completely master that skill no one probably will because it is what makes us human. I look at Sunday and all 5 LOSSES I rejected the warning signs because I wanted my opinion to be right . I know that 100% beyond a shadow of a doubt. bet COL for price reasons when in fact they lose 72% of there away games and just based on that a "fair price" or scientific price as GMan was looking for would be -260 . Slightily less because they did not lose yet on Sunday so they were 14-35 . Now I would never cap a game that literally but when you factor NYM is HOT as could be (27-18 at home ) , Pelfrey off some great starts generally allowing 3 runs or less in his home games , Redman being an over the hill LH started barely ML worthy , NY allowing 4 runs in 5 games and COL off a stretch of 1 run scores . How really were the odds better then 70% COL would NOT LOSE that game ? On the surface we think Mike Pelfrey and NY laying -230 is crazy but yet it was still cheaper then situation dictated ....
Which is why I keep saying PRICE is an ILLUSION . It does not create value . The situation or context the game under creates the value and if the price is in your favor thats how plays should be developed. Most times the situation if accurately figured heavily outweighs the price . Thats why a -250 fav can present value because if you can accurately and realistically impy that the real value of situation is 80% then you are paying -250 for a -400 situation . So situation and context are KEY for me . If other people are having success doing it differently thats great . I guess my biggest pet peave is the ONLY time I ever feel suckered on a play is when I make the play based on price as I did COL on Sunday. Thats the only type play that I feel like I am a dumbass for making . I think everyone should feel that way to some degree because again I think price should not be the sole determant. It's role is important because it's what gives us a possible edge but its not what creates that edge . If we are unsure we should pass but many times we dont again because we like to feel like we are getting something for nothing. Why do people pay high prices for NYY regardless of play ? Cause we all get trapped into looking at the surface rather then dig deeper . Yanks have great names and a great reputation so we are more willing to pay high prices w/o thinking about it deeply . I hate myself for playing Pettitte on Sunday when my 1st insticnt and last instinct was this price is crazy absurd . To round it up say Tor was -120 Halladay vs Joba and Yanks -150 Pettitte vs Burnett . The 1st thing I realize is Tor probably went off Friday to cheap by about 15 cents . The next thing is while Joba has fantastic stuff and can be lights out a good start from ndy Petitte will produce similiar stats . So while they are not equal there is not a great difference either . With Burnett almost similair . Halladay is a much better SP but his stuff is not much better . A good outing from Burnett is little different from a good outing from Halladay . Just from that I expect NYY to be no higherthen -120 but opened higher adn went higher ...STOP SIGN .....and I zoomed through it . With the Mets now at least they opened near -160 and had been -140 previously while COL was sending out its worst SP of the series so it did open way cheap IMO and got bet up a different svenario.....
Anyway , I hope I helped cleared up some disagreements while trying to show there is alot of thinking that goes into my decisions . As well as some points that maybe people can use to better there skills . I asked myself was my posting a function of ego? Really I dont think it was at least not in the past few years . What I got from posting was vindication but vindication in the sense I needed to prove to myself since I was really so messed up mentally that even though I couldnt work I still was useful. It did build my confidence but I dont feel like I will ever believe I as I useful or helpful as you have commented . Thats the truth .
Hopefully I shared as much as I could think of on what I do and how I do it . As well as how important it is to be perceptive and aware . Granted my perceptive nature is what got me stressed out but its also an asset.
GL CTG. All you guys know how to get in touch with me ...:cheers::shake:
Thanks for listening and reading ....
jimbo1227
Nice around mics, word to pippen
i totally agree w/ your price/ situation explanation. i've seen MANY, MANY times people say, for example, boston is +130 that is great value or doc halladay is +120 that is great value. so in essence they are just playing the line (without research usually), instead of playing the situation. well if boston is going against webb who for explanation purposes, has been pitching shut outs, his team is hot, and at home, then i would say that the line is set correctly or even cheap for webb so i would play it usually. i always think what fucking sucker would bet on boston just because they are underdog? not a great explanation, but i agree w/ nut. books set a line usually right on, and i dont think anyone can figure out how many times one team would be another if they played 100 times like kyle says. also, IF you could, what would be the difference between a team winning 60 times out of 100 or 65 out of 100? sometimes you can figure out 10-20 cents value on a line but "price does not create value" if i can quote my good buddy SN...
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
books set a line usually right on, and i dont think anyone can figure out how many times one team would be another if they played 100 times like kyle says
If you can't , then you should not be betting. How else do you handicap ??
Sure if someone says "halladay is at + 120 ,that is great value" without having done research and handicapping , they are just guessing.
Guys , if you aren't determining what percent a team wins a game by whatever means you use to handicap then how do you determine when you have the best of it ??
Someone explain that to me. please. i am begging. someone.
Which is why I keep saying PRICE is an ILLUSION . It does not create value . The situation or context the game under creates the value and if the price is in your favor thats how plays should be developed. Most times the situation if accurately figured heavily outweighs the price . Thats why a -250 fav can present value because if you can accurately and realistically impy that the real value of situation is 80% then you are paying -250 for a -400 situation
Right nut , inwhich case if you handicap the game to be 80% probability for one way and the price is -250 it is a value. it is a value because the price is -250. It would not be a value if the price was -450. That is what i am saying. i think maybe we actually agree. you determine a price that you think is fair ( in your example -400 is the fair price ) and then compare that price to the posted line ( in your example -250 ). If the difference between the price you created and the price the books created is enough to earn profit , then you bet it. Maybe we don't disagree as much as i thought.
If you can't , then you should not be betting. How else do you handicap ??
Sure if someone says "halladay is at + 120 ,that is great value" without having done research and handicapping , they are just guessing.
Guys , if you aren't determining what percent a team wins a game by whatever means you use to handicap then how do you determine when you have the best of it ??
Someone explain that to me. please. i am begging. someone.
Which is why I keep saying PRICE is an ILLUSION . It does not create value . The situation or context the game under creates the value and if the price is in your favor thats how plays should be developed. Most times the situation if accurately figured heavily outweighs the price . Thats why a -250 fav can present value because if you can accurately and realistically impy that the real value of situation is 80% then you are paying -250 for a -400 situation
Right nut , inwhich case if you handicap the game to be 80% probability for one way and the price is -250 it is a value. it is a value because the price is -250. It would not be a value if the price was -450. That is what i am saying. i think maybe we actually agree. you determine a price that you think is fair ( in your example -400 is the fair price ) and then compare that price to the posted line ( in your example -250 ). If the difference between the price you created and the price the books created is enough to earn profit , then you bet it. Maybe we don't disagree as much as i thought.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I also want to point out the major difference between market economies and sports line markets. In market economies, what the market settles at is the end result. In sports betting , what line the market settles at is NOT the result .... the actual result of the game is in relation to that line.
