Some observations from the other side of the counter about Thursday...

CollegeKingRex

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
OK. I'll let this go to bed after one more comment (see Thursday baseball discussion thread; about page 8 or so, for more insight)...

Nut - PUBLIC perception means very little in baseball, when it all boils down to it. It's about getting a price. The poker players, Blackie, the Asian group, QT, and maybe 2-3 other baseball bettors are the only ones out there in the market - capable of consistently winning and betting five-figures plus on sides and totals. No one else gets that respect in the market.

I cannot tell you where or why the Washington total opened 7.5 and went to 7 but any shop worth its salt will NEVER move the total off of 7.5 and onto 7 (CRIS is an exception; they write so much wiseguy AND public volume that it's ridiculous)... If I were to book that total myself and opened it for the world at 10 AM EDT (basically the time the overnight circles get taken off), I woulda opened it about 7 flat (most people were using 7o15 or 7 over at the time)... Even if we woulda written some overnight bets at 7.5 u30 or so, I woulda had my overnight guy move it to 7.5u45 or something before I took the $500 circles off so the exposure wouldn't have been too bad to my UNDER. The last thing any bookmaker wants to do is move a total that's worth roughly 32 cents (6.5 to 7 to 7.5) up or down to the magical 7 and get sided. If you use 7.5u60 (it's happened to me before when I made a game 7.5ov and the sharpies bet it down from 7.5un25 to 7u25) - you will eventually get buyback from someone who likes to take +140 on a total... though the vast majority of my $100 bettors just get the 'public' line as you say, at 7u20 (as close to -110 as possible on totals)...

So let's stop worrying about the 'public' in baseball. The term "fading the public" has to be the most overused and tired old phrase that comes up in this forum. It holds little merit, particularly in baseball.

The volume that we write both in the States and down here/offshore is enough on both sides of a game and the total that it's pretty hard to lose in the long run as a bookmaker. We don't worry about it - it's the sharpies who get hot (the pokers are finally running a little better now) that are the big concern.

And I disagree with Jimbo - that game stays under closer to 19 out of 20 times than 9 out of 10... Nut, you mentioned all those Arizona scoring chances - if they get 1-2 more runs there, then you have a 3-2 or 4-2 final, rather than 2-2 bonus baseball.

I'll never agree with your logical/illogical argument, and the 9-11 story, albeit an interesting read, had nothing to do with the fact that some incredible events occurred in the last hour of the game in DC to improbably and undeservedly push it over the total. UNDER bettors had the right side; they just did not get the cash. But those who constantly do their work properly to assign the correct number (in my case, 6.3) to the game will get the cash more times than not, and certainly more times than those who play by their 'gut', or 'hunches'...

Nut, you have very articulate writeups and I am in this thread daily now, at least to read, if not comment, primarily because it's easily the best factual daily baseball thread on the internet. I always come up with something to use and it adds or takes away AT LEAST one bet for me every day - considering the prices, of course, which is far and away the MOST important thing in baseball (and every other sport, for that matter)...

But how many times this week have you lamented a loss after the fact, because you were too late to get a winning play in by 20 seconds, or because you had so much information that you overloaded yourself and talked yourself onto something different. The Oakland game - great example. If I remember right, you said some things about Seattle and then I found out later you had bet on Oakland. Once again, the wrong side (though because you won, nevermind HOW you won - two homers in the 9th off a 0.68 ERA pitcher, I'm sure you think it was the RIGHT side)..... But as we all know, that evens out in the end. I'm sure earlier in the year, you've had a big favorite that blew it in the 9th the same way and you ended up losing, despite being right on the total...

It's got nothing to do with emotions and/personal feelings. I used to be that way before I got knee-deep in the business. I handle the highs and lows much better than I used to. That said, with six TV's in the office, I can only laugh off so many things in one day/week/month before at some point, shit starts getting thrown at the TV's.

Milwaukee UNDER was prolly the right side (Colly 1 run, 4 hits, getaway day). Lost it.

Reds/O was easily right and it ended up giving me close to break even on a day where I shoulda crushed.

Arizona was right. UNDER was more right (thank God I believe in the correlated parlays, otherwise I woulda bet both Az and UNDER)... hence, you saw what can happen with the extra three outs (six percent of the game) you get with the home team batting... my whole argument of the road/OV and home/UN parlay - six extra percent of value in every bet.

Detroit RL and ML for half each was right - ahead by more than two for most of the game, the whole thing disintegrated in the last three innings.

Seattle. Up 2-0 in the 9th and blow it on 2 homers.

Baltimore. Up by three in the 8th and spit it out.

Cleveland. Didn't bet it nearly heavy enough despite Sonnanstine being overrated, Devil Rays sputtering into the break and Laffey being tough at home. Tough for me to try to make a losing team win.

Texas. Down by a jillion despite having 10 more hits early on, they come back to tie at 10 and lose.

KC OVER. I liked the Royals myself but couldn't pull the trigger because it went against my correlation and I sorta 'let' BC talk me into an OVER there (definitely not his fault; he's gotten me onto far more winners than losers and I went OVER 8.5 +115 on a game that closed OVER 8.5 -125, which by getting the best of the number, is all you can ask for in betting baseball)...

So it was a mediocre day. Coulda been a great one. But I clocked in this morning and opened the baseball lines up just the same today as if I had won 5K or 6K than broke even or lost 5K or 6K... It's a marathon, not a sprint... and that doesn't just go for baseball.

:shake:
 
Can we never discuss about Baltimore again arrrrrrrrrgh.....even an 1/8 couldn't calm my nerves down.
 
that was some nasty shit rasta. whenever i take a tough beat i will think of yours and not feel so bad, so thank you.
CKR, i have so much respect for you and BC. i know i can win at this but i dont have a big bankroll and i keep getting caught in the trap that in order to win i have to parlay. i go 0-2 on a parlay only about once a week and most are 1-1 and i get enough parlay winners to break even. i am so close to breaking the barrier and just making a ton of money if i can work out my money management. i am amazing at picking sides and it has been one total here and there that get me. just gotta keep plugging away. it is a tough hobby but that is what keeps me coming back because i have this determination to be one of the best handicappers ever. i will conquer this shit. LOL
 
CollegeKingRex said:
OK. I'll let this go to bed after one more comment (see Thursday baseball discussion thread; about page 8 or so, for more insight)...

Nut - PUBLIC perception means very little in baseball, when it all boils down to it. It's about getting a price. The poker players, Blackie, the Asian group, QT, and maybe 2-3 other baseball bettors are the only ones out there in the market - capable of consistently winning and betting five-figures plus on sides and totals. No one else gets that respect in the market.

I cannot tell you where or why the Washington total opened 7.5 and went to 7 but any shop worth its salt will NEVER move the total off of 7.5 and onto 7 (CRIS is an exception; they write so much wiseguy AND public volume that it's ridiculous)... If I were to book that total myself and opened it for the world at 10 AM EDT (basically the time the overnight circles get taken off), I woulda opened it about 7 flat (most people were using 7o15 or 7 over at the time)... Even if we woulda written some overnight bets at 7.5 u30 or so, I woulda had my overnight guy move it to 7.5u45 or something before I took the $500 circles off so the exposure wouldn't have been too bad to my UNDER. The last thing any bookmaker wants to do is move a total that's worth roughly 32 cents (6.5 to 7 to 7.5) up or down to the magical 7 and get sided. If you use 7.5u60 (it's happened to me before when I made a game 7.5ov and the sharpies bet it down from 7.5un25 to 7u25) - you will eventually get buyback from someone who likes to take +140 on a total... though the vast majority of my $100 bettors just get the 'public' line as you say, at 7u20 (as close to -110 as possible on totals)...

So let's stop worrying about the 'public' in baseball. The term "fading the public" has to be the most overused and tired old phrase that comes up in this forum. It holds little merit, particularly in baseball.

The volume that we write both in the States and down here/offshore is enough on both sides of a game and the total that it's pretty hard to lose in the long run as a bookmaker. We don't worry about it - it's the sharpies who get hot (the pokers are finally running a little better now) that are the big concern.

And I disagree with Jimbo - that game stays under closer to 19 out of 20 times than 9 out of 10... Nut, you mentioned all those Arizona scoring chances - if they get 1-2 more runs there, then you have a 3-2 or 4-2 final, rather than 2-2 bonus baseball.

I'll never agree with your logical/illogical argument, and the 9-11 story, albeit an interesting read, had nothing to do with the fact that some incredible events occurred in the last hour of the game in DC to improbably and undeservedly push it over the total. UNDER bettors had the right side; they just did not get the cash. But those who constantly do their work properly to assign the correct number (in my case, 6.3) to the game will get the cash more times than not, and certainly more times than those who play by their 'gut', or 'hunches'...

Nut, you have very articulate writeups and I am in this thread daily now, at least to read, if not comment, primarily because it's easily the best factual daily baseball thread on the internet. I always come up with something to use and it adds or takes away AT LEAST one bet for me every day - considering the prices, of course, which is far and away the MOST important thing in baseball (and every other sport, for that matter)...

But how many times this week have you lamented a loss after the fact, because you were too late to get a winning play in by 20 seconds, or because you had so much information that you overloaded yourself and talked yourself onto something different. The Oakland game - great example. If I remember right, you said some things about Seattle and then I found out later you had bet on Oakland. Once again, the wrong side (though because you won, nevermind HOW you won - two homers in the 9th off a 0.68 ERA pitcher, I'm sure you think it was the RIGHT side)..... But as we all know, that evens out in the end. I'm sure earlier in the year, you've had a big favorite that blew it in the 9th the same way and you ended up losing, despite being right on the total...

It's got nothing to do with emotions and/personal feelings. I used to be that way before I got knee-deep in the business. I handle the highs and lows much better than I used to. That said, with six TV's in the office, I can only laugh off so many things in one day/week/month before at some point, shit starts getting thrown at the TV's.

Milwaukee UNDER was prolly the right side (Colly 1 run, 4 hits, getaway day). Lost it.

Reds/O was easily right and it ended up giving me close to break even on a day where I shoulda crushed.

Arizona was right. UNDER was more right (thank God I believe in the correlated parlays, otherwise I woulda bet both Az and UNDER)... hence, you saw what can happen with the extra three outs (six percent of the game) you get with the home team batting... my whole argument of the road/OV and home/UN parlay - six extra percent of value in every bet.

Detroit RL and ML for half each was right - ahead by more than two for most of the game, the whole thing disintegrated in the last three innings.

Seattle. Up 2-0 in the 9th and blow it on 2 homers.

Baltimore. Up by three in the 8th and spit it out.

Cleveland. Didn't bet it nearly heavy enough despite Sonnanstine being overrated, Devil Rays sputtering into the break and Laffey being tough at home. Tough for me to try to make a losing team win.

Texas. Down by a jillion despite having 10 more hits early on, they come back to tie at 10 and lose.

KC OVER. I liked the Royals myself but couldn't pull the trigger because it went against my correlation and I sorta 'let' BC talk me into an OVER there (definitely not his fault; he's gotten me onto far more winners than losers and I went OVER 8.5 +115 on a game that closed OVER 8.5 -125, which by getting the best of the number, is all you can ask for in betting baseball)...

So it was a mediocre day. Coulda been a great one. But I clocked in this morning and opened the baseball lines up just the same today as if I had won 5K or 6K than broke even or lost 5K or 6K... It's a marathon, not a sprint... and that doesn't just go for baseball.

:shake:
Click to expand...

Agree with everything you said........

With baseball, it seems like the bad beats (closers blowing leads that teams held for 7-8 innings) come in bunches and sometimes they are just hard to take when they add up quickly and you realize the dollar value swing that you just took............Ive been holding my head above water despite a number of bad beats this week and when I play the what if game, I get frustrated...Im not feeling sorry for myself - I realize that the bad breaks even out over time but the games you win when you had the wrong side always seem less than the losses you'll never forget....
 
Wow...why are we making this such a big deal? I've been on winners and losers like this several times. I have a database of 10,000+ games that I personally populated into excel. I've seen countless of times where a game should've gone UNDER and didn't and vice versa. Like Rex said, this is a marathon and you must keep your emotions in check. All I'm trying to do is get an edge to win 54% to 56% of my plays. I realize and expect bad and good breaks in sports investing.

I for one was on the UNDER in DC. Here's why...the first 2 games of the series go way UNDER. The first game is with a struggling WEBB vs PEREZ. Hernandez is behind the dish and he was 6-12 O/U leading into that game. Only 2 runs are scored, so I figured I throw this one out as we had a strong UNDER ump and Webb could be returning to form. The second game was the one that opened my eyes. We had OWINGS vs LANNAN and a decent OVER ump in FAIRCHILD who was 13-8 O/U leading into this game. He called 55.7% strikes in the game which is one of the lowest I've seen in awhile. In addition, he issued 9 Walks and only 6 Stikeouts and these two teams could only muster 9 hits in this game. Are you fucking kidding me...9 HITS. So here is the stat I'm looking at when I made my play:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 301pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=399 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 68pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3291" width=90><COL style="WIDTH: 47pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2304" width=63><COL style="WIDTH: 45pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2194" width=60><COL style="WIDTH: 47pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2267" span=3 width=62><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl60 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 160pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver; mso-ignore: colspan" width=213 colSpan=3 height=18>ARI vs WAS (July 9 & 10)</TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" width=62></TD><TD class=xl70 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" width=62></TD><TD class=xl71 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" width=62></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl62 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" height=18>Results</TD><TD class=xl63 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD><TD class=xl64 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow"></TD><TD class=xl56 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white">Win (2.2)</TD><TD class=xl57 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white">Losses</TD><TD class=xl58 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white">Profit</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" width=90 height=17>Un - H</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl128 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num="0.5">50.00%</TD><TD class=xl72 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" x:num="2.2" x:fmla="=+B3*2.2">2</TD><TD class=xl73 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" x:num x:fmla="=-B5-B6-B8-B4">-1</TD><TD class=xl74 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" x:num="1.2" x:fmla="=D3+E3">1</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" width=90 height=17>Un - A</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl128 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num="0.5">50.00%</TD><TD class=xl75 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" x:num="2.2" x:fmla="=+B4*2.2">2</TD><TD class=xl76 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" x:num x:fmla="=-B3-B5-B6-B8">-1</TD><TD class=xl77 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" x:num="1.2" x:fmla="=D4+E4">1</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" width=90 height=17>Ov - A</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num>0</TD><TD class=xl128 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num="0">0.00%</TD><TD class=xl75 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" x:num x:fmla="=+B5*2.2">0</TD><TD class=xl76 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" x:num x:fmla="=-B4-B6-B3-B7">-2</TD><TD class=xl77 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" x:num x:fmla="=D5+E5">-2</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" width=90 height=18>Ov - H</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num>0</TD><TD class=xl128 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num="0">0.00%</TD><TD class=xl78 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" x:num x:fmla="=+B6*2.2">0</TD><TD class=xl79 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" x:num x:fmla="=-B4-B5-B3-B8">-2</TD><TD class=xl80 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white" x:num x:fmla="=D6+E6">-2</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" width=90 height=18>P - H</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num>0</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff"></TD><TD class=xl106 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2>Correlated Parlays</TD><TD class=xl82 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: white"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" width=90 height=17>P - A</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num>0</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff"></TD><TD class=xl108 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl108 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl108 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl41 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" width=90 height=17>Total</TD><TD class=xl42 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num x:fmla="=SUM(B3:B8)">2</TD><TD class=xl43 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff"></TD><TD class=xl108 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl108 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl108 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl59 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black" height=18></TD><TD class=xl46 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl46 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl108 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl108 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl108 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl65 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Over/Under %</TD><TD class=xl66 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red"></TD><TD class=xl118 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2>Win/Loss %</TD><TD class=xl88 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red" width=90 height=17>OVER</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red" align=right x:num x:fmla="=+B5+B6">0</TD><TD class=xl116 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red" align=right x:num="0">0%</TD><TD class=xl119 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" width=62>HOME</TD><TD class=xl89 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num x:fmla="=+B3+B6+B7">1</TD><TD class=xl90 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="0.5" x:fmla="=+E12/$B$9">50%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl44 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red" width=90 height=18>UNDER</TD><TD class=xl45 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red" align=right x:num x:fmla="=+B3+B4">2</TD><TD class=xl117 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: red" align=right x:num="1">100%</TD><TD class=xl120 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" width=62>AWAY</TD><TD class=xl91 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num x:fmla="=+B9-E12">1</TD><TD class=xl92 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: lime" x:num="0.5" x:fmla="=+E13/$B$9">50%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl107 style="BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=3 height=18>Over/Under 5INN (5=Push)</TD><TD class=xl121 style="BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=3>Run Line (Home -1.5 Runs)</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl84 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=90 height=17>OVER</TD><TD class=xl85 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" x:num>0</TD><TD class=xl112 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" x:num="0">0%</TD><TD class=xl124 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" width=62>RL - H</TD><TD class=xl125 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl126 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" x:num="0.5" x:fmla="=+E15/$B$9">50%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl86 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=90 height=18>UNDER</TD><TD class=xl113 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" x:num>2</TD><TD class=xl114 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" x:num="1">100%</TD><TD class=xl127 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" width=62>RL - A</TD><TD class=xl125 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl126 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: silver" x:num="0.5" x:fmla="=+E16/$B$9">50%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl115 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black" height=18></TD><TD class=xl109 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl109 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl108 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl108 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl108 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt; mso-height-source: userset" height=17><TD class=xl110 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" height=17>Batting Avg</TD><TD class=xl67 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff"></TD><TD class=xl51 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff">Runs</TD><TD class=xl51 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff">Hits</TD><TD class=xl52 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff">HR</TD><TD class=xl93 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" width=90 height=17>HOME</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" align=right x:num="0.19672131147540983">0.197</TD><TD class=xl37 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" x:num="2.5">2.5 </TD><TD class=xl94 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" x:num>6.0</TD><TD class=xl95 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" x:num="0">- </TD><TD class=xl93 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" width=90 height=17>AWAY</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" align=right x:num="0.125">0.125</TD><TD class=xl37 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" x:num="1">1.0 </TD><TD class=xl94 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" x:num>3.5</TD><TD class=xl95 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" x:num="0">- </TD><TD class=xl93 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" width=90 height=17>Total</TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" width=63></TD><TD class=xl37 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" x:num="3.5" x:fmla="=SUBTOTAL(9,C19:C20)">3.5 </TD><TD class=xl94 title="Big Grin" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" alt="" x:num x:fmla="=SUM(D19:D20)">9.5</TD><TD class=xl95 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" x:num="0.5">0.5 </TD><TD class=xl93 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" width=90 height=17>Avg O/U Line</TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" width=63></TD><TD class=xl40 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" x:num="7.75">7.8 </TD><TD class=xl96 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff"></TD><TD class=xl96 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff"></TD><TD class=xl93 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl68 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" width=90 height=17>Avg 5 Inn</TD><TD class=xl69 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" width=63></TD><TD class=xl39 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff" x:num="1">1.0 </TD><TD class=xl96 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff"></TD><TD class=xl96 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #cc99ff"></TD><TD class=xl93 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl48 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black" width=90 height=18></TD><TD class=xl49 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl50 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl97 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl97 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD><TD class=xl98 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: black"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl53 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" height=17>Pitching</TD><TD class=xl54 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99">WHIP</TD><TD class=xl54 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99">K</TD><TD class=xl54 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99">BB</TD><TD class=xl55 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99">K/BB</TD><TD class=xl99 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99">Strike %</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl33 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" width=90 height=17>HOME</TD><TD class=xl34 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" align=right x:num="0.8571428571428571">0.857</TD><TD class=xl38 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" align=right x:num>5.0</TD><TD class=xl100 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" x:num>4.0</TD><TD class=xl101 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" x:num="1.25">1.3 </TD><TD class=xl102 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl33 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" width=90 height=17>AWAY</TD><TD class=xl34 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" align=right x:num="1.1428571428571428">1.143</TD><TD class=xl38 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" align=right x:num>5.5</TD><TD class=xl100 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" x:num>4.0</TD><TD class=xl101 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" x:num="1.375">1.4 </TD><TD class=xl102 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD class=xl35 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; WIDTH: 68pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" width=90 height=18>Total</TD><TD class=xl36 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" align=right x:num x:fmla="=SUBTOTAL(1,B26:B27)">1.000</TD><TD class=xl47 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" align=right x:num x:fmla="=SUBTOTAL(9,C26:C27)">10.5</TD><TD class=xl103 title="Big Grin" style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" alt="" x:num x:fmla="=SUBTOTAL(9,D26:D27)">8.0</TD><TD class=xl104 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #d4d0c8; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" x:num="1.3125">1.3 </TD><TD class=xl105 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffcc99" x:num="0.58899999999999997">58.9%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Basically, neither team is hitting shit (both below .200 ba) with a sub 60% strike percentage.

That leads me to yesterday's play where we have two decent SP and a CLUBBER behind the dish in COOPER.

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 652pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=870 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 77pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 3766" width=103><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=6 width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 47pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2304" width=63><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=5 width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 77pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=103 height=17>Umpire</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=64>R</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=64>BB</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=64>SO</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=64>STR %</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=64>K/Rate</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=64>Avg</TD><TD class=xl28 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 47pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=63>WHIP</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=64>Over</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=64>Under</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=64 x:str="Home ">Home </TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=64>Away</TD><TD class=xl29 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: yellow" width=64>Clubber</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; WIDTH: 77pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" width=103 height=17>Cooper</TD><TD class=xl31 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" width=64 x:num="9.1666666666666661">9.2</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND: red; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; mso-ignore: style; mso-pattern: auto none" align=right width=64 x:num="5.8888888888888893">5.9</TD><TD class=xl30 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right width=64 x:num="13.166666666666666">13.2</TD><TD class=xl32 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND: red; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; mso-ignore: style; mso-pattern: auto none" align=right width=64 x:num="0.63749999999999996">63.8%</TD><TD class=xl33 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND: red; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; mso-ignore: style; mso-pattern: auto none" width=64 x:num="2.2358490566037732">2.24</TD><TD class=xl35 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BACKGROUND: lime; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; mso-ignore: style; mso-pattern: auto none" align=right x:num="0.28273092369477909">0.283</TD><TD class=xl35 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num="1.4402515723270439">1.440</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num>7</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num>11</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num>9</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: #d4d0c8; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff" align=right x:num>9</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext; BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ccffff">Clubber</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

He's not the best CLUBBER, but with these two teams...clearly enough to get the job done.

To me...I make this an UNDER play everytime. I don't care what the public is playing. I let my database lead me to my plays regardless of what the public is doing. I don't make plays based on perceptions, emotions, gut feeling...why would I do this??? This would cause nothing more than second guessing myself out of plays. I let factual data be the basis of all my plays (Umps, SP, Weather, Venue, Current team form).

The most important part of my sports investing to me is...EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED! Don't get caught up in the Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda SHIT. You need to ride the highs the same as the lows and hopefully the gambling gods are kind to you most of the time.

PEACE
 
Great post, Rex.

Hey, quick question. You know, I've never actually understood things like "7.5u60."

I don't bet baseball, and I seem to very rarely deal with it in other sports or, if I do, I don't know that I'm dealing with it. Is that short hand for the under is at -160?
 
Rex, very interesting post. I would like to point out that in my experience baseball is the sport that is most affected by the 'random factor'. Sudden bullpen implosions, gas can pitchers pitching 6 innings of shutout baseball, teams winning in the most unfavorable situational spots, etc...

I just feel that random factor comes into play more than in any other North America based sport.

I'm not complaining about losses here, I'm really not. 2 years ago I had a 114% season, this year I'm around 104%-105%. Since most of the cappers I know, even if they are top class, have similar situations going, I consider it to be normal.

But such swings are very tough to handle since I feel there are no so strong fundamentals as in NBA or NHL. I have been making 113% on the NHL so far, and 111% in the NBA.

MLB is hovering around 108-109% all time for me, I think the difference is obvious.
 
Good stuff so far fellas.

Shorty is a great example of a guy who does things the way they are supposed to be done (except he bets against our clubbers sometimes if the wind, weather, humidity, barometer or other earthly factors dictate it, lol)... he keeps precise records that he can use for future profits - even if the only thing is to put himself in a position where he can win 54-56 percent of the time (at a -110 or better line on the average, which equals a profit in the long run)...

Satyr - Those unpredictabilities are a part of baseball. It's the only sport where time does not dictate when the game ends. There must be at least 51 outs for a game to have action on the side, total, and RL. The other thing that's great about baseball (and to a lesser extent, hockey) is that the prices are not -105 or -110. You can hit less than 50 percent and still make money if you select the proper sides.

More thoughts later - swamped at the store right now...
 
i like baseball because there are so many factors to include. for the nba and nhl you can look at motivation, etc. but it doesnt mean the guys will be making their jump shots or in nhl there can be one mistake by a goalie that can be the difference.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Detroit RL and ML for half each was right - ahead by more than two for most of the game, the whole thing disintegrated in the last three innings.
Click to expand...

148397927_dc0bf10e51.jpg


:shake:
 
Good points fellas. The debate that I hate is calling something the "right" side. Shit happens in sports. Closers aren't perfect, players in the field make errors, and guys hit into double plays with the bases loaded. As a guy who bets a lot of dogs, I get hit with this shit all the time. (See Balt game yesterday, or Mil game winning by five in the ninth inning and losing the game last week). This kind of shit happens all the time.

We can rationalize by telling ourselves, we were on the "right" side of a game - and capped correctly, etc - but in the end tough breaks happen. Its part of the game. Ask Cub fans or Red Sox fans after the Buckner incident. As bettors we just have to keep doing things the right way and hope to minimize the tough losses. But you can never eliminate them.

Like you guys have already said, today's a new day - forget it and move on. Sure it helps once in a while to vent - but don't dwell.
 
scdoggy, I definitely believe in the right side. If a game is 61%-39% according to the oddsmakers and you establish it at 55%-45%, taking the road dog of course, and they play a game like this:

http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/results/2008/boxscore286915.html


Minnesota were the correct side here, almost certainly not Boston at that price.

This is just one example, the other would be Arizona last night. SN said Zona had a lot of chances, but as Rex replied, that doesn't take the game to sick extra innings, it takes Zona to a 3,4:2 win.

Yeah sometimes you pick the "wrong side" but still win due to other factors, but there almost certainly is the correct and the wrong side in a large majority of games.
 
i agree w/ satyr and rex. and that is what i was trying to tell sportsnut for hours last night. i wholeheartedly believe the under was the "correct" play in ari/was last night. i guess w/ the public so heavy on the a low total though the best play would be to stay away but the over was not the play, that is for damn sure.
 
Saying a side is the right one is ok if you're talking about capping a game correctly and finding value on one side (Satyr). But I hate it when guys claim they had the right side because a team collapsed in the ninth inning, or a bunch of runs came late, and bitch becasue they had the "right" side.

If everything happened the way it should based on stats, past performance, etc - we'd all be millionaires from betting baseball. Fact is the game isn't played in a vaccuum and there are a ton of variables that effect outcomes of games. Some we know, many we will never know no matter how informed we pretend we are. (did the closer just have a fight with his wife before the game and she threatened not to let him see the kids, did he wipe his ass too much the night before and its affecting his motion?, on and on and on....)
 
scdoggy said:
Good points fellas. The debate that I hate is calling something the "right" side. Shit happens in sports. Closers aren't perfect, players in the field make errors, and guys hit into double plays with the bases loaded. As a guy who bets a lot of dogs, I get hit with this shit all the time. (See Balt game yesterday, or Mil game winning by five in the ninth inning and losing the game last week). This kind of shit happens all the time.

We can rationalize by telling ourselves, we were on the "right" side of a game - and capped correctly, etc - but in the end tough breaks happen. Its part of the game. Ask Cub fans or Red Sox fans after the Buckner incident. As bettors we just have to keep doing things the right way and hope to minimize the tough losses. But you can never eliminate them.

Like you guys have already said, today's a new day - forget it and move on. Sure it helps once in a while to vent - but don't dwell.
Click to expand...


If anything, I usually try to rationalize betting the wrong side of games and winning - I learn a lot more when I believe I'm wrong than when I'm right. Cause hey, we're "supposed" to be right. When we're not right (win OR lose)... that's when you have to look at your processes and ask if you are doing things the "right" way? (Are my lines off, am I making the total too high in that ballpark, do I have this umpire rated as too much of an 'over' guy? etc.)
 
And, lets not forget that the pendulum swings both ways here. I've certainly been on games this year (I had LAD when the Angels pitched a no hitter against them yet lost 1-0).

So the breaks even out. When we're bitching about how bad of a night we just had adn were on the right side of this and that, remember the games you had no business winning but a miracle happened in the end that put a higher balance in your account at the end of the night.
 
One thing that I've really paid attention to in baseball this season is that when a mediocre pitcher is a small dog to a great pitcher, that it's almost always correct to go with the dog or avoid the obvious play. Of course Vegas gets it wrong every now and then, but it's extremely rare. Here are some examples that stick out from this season.

Tim Hudson was -120 against Dave Bush +110 in Milwaukee earlier this season. It's fairly obvious that with this pitching matchup, that you would think Hudson should be more like -140 and Bush +130. Clearly the books wanted people to bet Atlanta. I was on a family vacation, and I told my dad(non-gambling type) that if there was one game that I'd bet everything I owned, that it would be Milwaukee winning the game. He was like whatever. Sure enough, Atlanta led most of the game, and the Brewers pulled it out late. It happens all the time.

Another case where the books clearly wanted action on one side back-fired on them. The game was an Angels-Phillies game. Saunders was +130 and Myers, who was pitching like trash was -140. The Phillies were in a general funk at the time, and LAA led most of the way. The Phillies tied it in the bottom of the seventh and should have taken the lead but committed a baserunning blunder that cost them what should have been the lead run. Then in the eighth, Myers got two quick outs, walked a guy and proceeded to give up a two run homer to Erick Aybar of all people. There is no doubt that Philadelphia was the right side that night and the books wanted people on the Angels but it backfired. They were correct but they were unlucky.
 
Rex, you probably won't respond to this b/c you stated you were putting this issue to bed. I've always had the perception that lines were set not at a number a linesmaker believes the outcome will be, but where he believes he'll recieve 50/50 action. I'm missing something when you state that public perception means very little in baseball. Are you saying that the lines are based on how 6-7 people may bet a particular game?
 
Counselor - You are correct in your perception that the linesmaker tries to make the OPENING line at a price where he will receive two-way action.

If I open the Jays at -115 last night (+105 Yankees), and write bets on both sides - then I consider that a good line. Right now, it's anywhere from -107 to -115 on the 10-cent line.

What you DON'T want is to open the Jays -135, then they announce Wells is out (which was known at this point yesterday) and then Rios out as well. It would not STUN me for the Yankees to get more action and this game to basically go off at a PICK. You're a quarter or more off on the line and likely to have written more bets on the Yankees because of it... Usually the bookmaker does NOT like to be in that spot.

It's up to the handicappers/oddsmakers to put up a better number for the bookmakers (see the other thread about Friday's baseball thoughts, page 2, about post 50 or 60, when I explain to Jimbo about the Cub total this morning... by the way I was wrong, but it usually doesn't happen that way.)....

And I'm not saying six or seven people altogether influence the way the line moves - but the market is so small in baseball right now that only heavy heavy one-way volume or wiseguy play will move the line dramatically...
 
CKR-

This is going to be a long rant and most probably my last one .


You misunderstand my point about perception . First its not public perception its general perception I speak of . As I have said numerous times I do not care about about who bets what . For every so called sharp bet it always seems to be something I am already on because I think outside the box and know where lines should be . My use of the word of perception is used in conjunction with logical . When things are perceived strongly to only be able to happen in one certain way is IMO the best time to approach it is as occurring illogical . Secondly this has nothing to do with gambling the understanding of perception is relevant in every trading market in the world. You must have heard terms LIKE over bought or over sold ? Basically indicating that perception is ahead of real value . This is what I look for everyday in every sport . So I understand better then any so called professional gambler in the world what role perception plays . Frankly , I am tired of how these pros are worshipped because they have big bankrolls . Labels dont give one person a better understanding .


Simply because so called pros have there ways of doing things doesnt make them better or correct . Which is a trap you have fallen into . There is no right way to do anything in life . Afford me there bankrolls and KNOW I will outperform any of them . Try gambling with ZERO income and for the most part zero bankroll , its not quite that easy to just fire away and trust your opinions when if your wrong its a burden . So lets forget who says what and explore different methods.

Price is important of course but again there is no value in losing plays . There is NO VALUE in the theory this play will be successful so and so amount of times so I will play it repeatedly . That is wishful thinking . So price plays a role in comparision to the situation paying off THAT day not the next 100 times you play it . That arguement is baseless . One day people will understand how priced in is just as much as a trap as any other system play . If you play a hand in poker that you are priced into it could end your tourney . The decision to NOT play that hand could start momentum for you and lead you deeper then expected . Its all about decisions . Isnt that why HOT poker players suckout ? Isnt that why hot teams pull games out ? Once you have momentum it a huge plus to have ...

On this silly game - Zona @ Wash :

I can tell you that it opened at 7.5 -105 on Pinnacle . How long it stayed there I have no clue I didnt really pay attention. I can also tell you that buyback you speak of occurred at minutes before 1st pitch at it closed at 7 over -107 @ Pinnacle go check it I know it happened I watched . If you cant call various resources to check the Pinnacle close I can tell you that I uses Sports Insights to see the closing lines that I missed and I am sure that is there for all to read. As I recall the only other book that didnt show Under viggorsih was Sports Insights which regulary tries to lure bettors with opposite markets . Also I may have commented on it during the discussion thread at some point (the buyback occurring). So it happened clear as day . So lets stop talking about what eberyone thinks happened and what did happen .

AGAIN I never FADE the public . First every BET taken is PUBLIC action . So you cant fade the public and well I dont see what edges a so called Sharp has over me since every wiseguy play mentioned seems to be something I have already played . Regardless SHARP action is part of the same market . Markets are efficient IMO they weed out bad prices and if they dont you need to stop and ask two things :

1- Do I see something MOST others dont
2- I am missing something that others see

I simply understand perception better then most and how when perception gets ahead of reality illogical things occur . As I said millions of times before I learned my craft trading bonds and watching bond issues move up , down , left and right all day for 10 hours a day for years . You think this is hard try doing bond swaps the simutaneous buying and selling of bond issues a market moving 100's of times faster with 100's of millions of dollars at stake. I bring that up because I want people to know I am not speaking out of my ass . Sports betting today is a Market . Its about who and why people are buying and selling teams or SP's . If the logic is off or the price is off then I know how to act .Thats the perception I speak of and hopefully I will never have to explain it again. Everything works in patterns . Thats why people look at Stock Charts or in the gambling world look to discover relevant trends to apply . Its the explotation of a PATTERN! Which is what I did . I saw a total that should have opened at a certain place open uncharacteristically higher and get bet down even if it was 7 -105 it was the wrong open . What do you think I did in the Texas game ? Since that happened more logically it appears more correct ??? Sometimes I think backwards . I use my instincts to see what looks off and research what makes its a valueable play . As I said yesterday Bergmann on extra rest was not as sharp in his last 10 starts as his normal rest starts and 4 of the 6 were overs I believe . So I start with the fact I see 7.5 on a game that might warrant a 6.5 based on recent performance . Of course I know everyone is running to bet the under . Sharp , square , superhero , everyone ....its commonsense . When you see 2-0 , 5-0 , like in this discussion people think in narrow spaces . Just like when teams are playing poorly and people expect the to bounce back for no relevant reason I continue to fade .

Unfortunately everyone rather prove they are right then listen and hear . I may be wrong but I havent seen many people LISTEN or HEAR what I am saying . We are still debating wrong and right which was something early on I said did not APPLY . My points about Arizona scoring chances are simple . They had opportunities and wasted them . How many missed opportunities are going to happen in a game ? Something has to give . Either Zona breaks through or Wash does eventually . Its inevitable . Because they missed the first 5 times they are supposed to miss the next 5 as well? You expect things to happen in a rational manner and well that is jsut not how life works . You must understand you cannot change 1 play without changing everything that happens afterwards . Change one moment in your past and your life is different . If Arizona scores 1 or 2 more runs it might lead to Bergmann's exit quicker , it might lead to Haren being PH with MOB in a 4-0 game , any one things changes the entire game there after changes so you dont know how it played it afterward . I dont and you dont . My point is this what is supposed to happen will ALWAYS find a way to happen . It doesnt simply end 4-2 first off because Wash down 4-2 with bases loaded no out isnt as satisfied cause the game is not tied. So you just cant go in adding 1 run here or 2 runs there for Arizona and know your not creating an entirely different game. Zona doesnt bear down like it did either . The score changes everything after changes .....

So clear as day my point is the game stayed 2-0 allowing Wash to hang around making a comeback much more feasible and LOGICAL . So if its 2-2 then goes 3-2 b10th whose to say the Nats dont tie or win it which either Pushes the total or loses the total . Odd how with bases loaded no out the Nats couldnt win it how come they arent the right side ?? The came back from 2-0 and 5-2 in a half inning twice w/o scoring for 8 innings yet they the Nats arent the right side ?? Very strange IMO. Not sure how this can be selective . The problem is everyone gets caught up in how things unfold and worry about the last thing that happened rather then the effect the prior 99 things that happened in the game . After that happened before the 9th inning played a role in what happened in the 9th inning . I will say very clearly if you think that everything that occurs doesnt have a purpose then you dont understand much about life . While it may be foolish to apply that to sports the people playing these games are real . There everyday lives are affected by what happens to them on a baseball field . There lives change for better or worse depending on whats happens in there careers . So understanding perception is just a relevant in a sporting event as it is in real life . Everything has an ebb and flow to it nothing is constant . The only constant is change ...heard that before . Thats why some athletes do well w/o pressure because there are no expectations to perform to .

So @ Oak -

Oak was the wrong side how ? Did you read everything I wrote ? I did say IF Sexson plays at 1st because he mashes LHP . Which jimbo busted my ballz and said uhm he got released ! I did bet the under , 1st 5 under and Oak ML yet I was wrong ?? Did I expect to win in the b9th ? No , but it wasnt over . Did anyone here ever play sports I wonder ? It seems like no one can look back and see these illogical things happpening to them in there playing days . I just watched my hoops team lead 63-51 with 2 minutes left and loser 64-63 when someone fouled the opponent with 1 sec left on a jumper . You know what I said afterwards while everyone was dejected ? I knew we lost once they got that close . Thats just the way sports work. Our failure wasnt the foul with1 second left it was the 5 possessions before that which made a 12 pt game 1 thus putting the pressure on us .

Did the OAK game go exactly like I suspected ? No , but it was a low socring Oak win which it what I bet . I am supossed to predict every event in the game as well? Once the A's get the 1st HR I feel pretty good about my chances . So in your world because Brandon Morrow has 0.67 ERA he is never supposed to allow runs ? So he is Mo Rivera now ? Right ..that 's what you are saying ? Its ILLOGICAL that he did this. Hmm...funny how that keeps coming up. Furthermore SEA is a bad team and bad teams find way extravagant ways to lose and funny so is Washington .

You expected them to get shutout ? You expected SEA pen to be able to win a close game ? All things I thought out before the game ....Both lineups suck but Oak was home and solid in day games with the better SP and the better bullpen . Chances are they win that game 70% of the time at -170 OAK presents value in my world . Both teams probably have to scratch out runs and well I think OAK has a much better chance to do so .

Simply put my decision to bet OAK was simple . The Mariners released Sexson and replaced him with Cairo and sat Ichiro . They had a cleanup hitter who hit 191 in day games and they had 5-7 hitters who hit below 200 with 1 hr and 16 RBI combined with an OPS in the mid 500 range . They had several LH vs a LHSP (Ibanez and Reed). Which left 1 real concerning bat in Jose Lopez . They had Gerg Smith who was solid at home and even better held opps to a .210 BAA on normal rest . They had a huge gap in bullpen strength . All said before the game started .

So how was Seattle right ? Oh , you got suckered into the price arguement . There was no logical reason how SEA could win that game . So why did 160 present value ? Maybe because SEA won the previous day it looked attractive probably because everyone after think SEA +200 fading Dursch was great value flipped and bet Oak only watch it go up in flames with Blanton . So perception very important in what I do . So this same thing happen when Dursch started on Tuesday . How many why is he -200 commenst did we see? At best they could probably muster 3 runs . How was Dickey and the pen keeping Oak to 2 runs or less ?? They werent and they didnt . Sure was it shocking they hit 2 solo Hrs but again it was shocking SEA scored off the A's pen IMO which SEA backers seem to leave out . The fact it was clear to me but not in the perception of how the game was bet it was put me on OAKLAND . I dont think I am a genius for betting OAK or do I concrn myself with being right . I know the game and I played thed game how I feel it should be played . I simply made a good decision before the game started once I weighed everything . Brandon Morrow doesnt know me , the A's hitter sdont know me so how would I be LUCKY ? The outcome has no effect on my life .

Unfortunately most people suffer from ego problems and need to tell themselves I have bad luck , my play was right , etc to make themselves feel better . Like the kid in the playground who loses a 1 on 1 game but jumps up and down saying he is better . The guy who screams he is cursed with bad luck. Its simple dont rely on LUCK . If there is a caution sign slow down and think .

Whatever plays I bitch about missing are due to the fact for some odd reason alot of times things just become clearer right before 1st pitch . I am not sure if its part of my ADD but seemingly would seem to be . Other times I cant explain how I can be on my wireless access for 10 hours and when I about to enter some plays it freezes for 10 minutes locking me out . Its just one of those things . Are there ways I could prevent it ? yeah . Not stay on this board all night talking about games that causes me to sleep later and shorten the time I have to actual research games. Which this topic has done for 2 days now.

For the LAST TIME Right and Wrong are Personal words . Gambling is a GAME . Its not about me vs you or right vs wrong its about winning and losing . I am simply showing what I have learned . You may not want to believe me , agree with me or trust me . However I can go to sleep everynight knowing I taught myself how to cap sports without any outside help and that was after I learned how to trade bonds basically on my own . To which I was told that people who watched me never saw someone learn to trade bonds at the level I did in the short time I did . That no one ever did what I did in the span of 6 months . Might sound like me pounding my chest but unless you understand my background then I think you will be to quick to rely on so called pro methods . So either I am fooling myself thinking I know what I am talking about and successfully applying it since 1997 or I actually do know what the hell I am talking about it and I waste my time trying to teach the things I have stumbled upon ........

Its not for debate . Losing plays arent right . Everything that occurs in life , in sports isnt logical and we have to teach ourselves that sometimes failure is the greatest teacher and greatest gift we can have if we learn from it . Just because it doesnt happen logically doesnt mean it shouldnt have occurred . Speak to any pyschologist and the worst word we use is SHOULD . There is no such thing as SHOULD. We would like all closers to retire the side like they have previously but there is no logically reason why the SHOULD DO so on that day . Shit happens . Thats why I am rarely the one getting moosed .....I do my best to watch the warning signs .

I dont consider myself right when I win . I consider my DECISION to play something correct.

If you think I am spewing BullShit well examine everything I said yesterday alone . I said before it happened Texas had a good chance of coming back . With minutes 10-7 game s was 10-10 ...lucky I guess . I just noticed that since LAA last score the Rangers had scored every half inning . Momentum is tough to deny . When the Tigers went to extra innings I said based on the fact the Tigers blew there chances in the 9th that the I expected Minnesota to win . Sure enough next half inning twins score an win 7-6 . Again something I just noticed in teams who blow leads . Well I was supposedly luckly on the Zona total and Oak ML . Must have been lucky when I said next run wins in the game @ KC and Royals down 1-0 tied it and scored 4 . I am just so lucky all these opinions I have workout . I must be so special . Thankfully , I dont believe that . I just am perceptive . Sometimes to perceptive .

Bottomline is LOSING plays are never right . The object of the game is to win but if we are smart we learn from our losses. You dont have to be wrong to lose but its still a loss. They may not be wrong but the last thing they are is RIGHT .


I have probably wasted 6 hours of my life trying to teach people that everything that happens is not logical in life . Which is why gamblers lose because they rely on previous events to predict future events . If gambling on sports was logical 100% of the time it would be so fucking easy . You would study the stats and bet accordingly to what occurred in the past as history . Did I know the Wash total would happen like it did . Nope . Did I know the way the total open and subsquently moved was a tipoff to play the OVER . Yes , I did and said before the game started ....... and did the same @ Texas.....read the book BLINK and it a great point is made that human natures wants us to rationalize everything . Rather then believe our gut reaction could be just as acccurate maybe more accurate then gathering every piece of info. I thanks JPicks for seeing this in me and bringing this book to my attention as there is no doubt it applied to me .


I hope that after CKR still looks at me in the same manner as I truly do respect him. If he doesnt that is his choice . I am confident I know what I am talking about . Like I said I have used this everyday for a decade .


I post here for 1 reason to teach what I have learned . Am small all knowing person with all the answers . No fucking way ! Not even close . I do feel like I learned and now understand more then the avg person. I do not talk gambling with any people outside this forum. Few people in my life know I gamble . Very few . I have told some members this in the past and the only reason I post is to try and be helpful and teach . If I wanted to go around feeling like I was so smart and so right I would make this my profession or become a tout and get paid for my opinion. I have no interest in doing so . My life isnt meant to revolve around gambling it simply something to keep my mind sharp in this period in my life .

Most people dont know a big reason why I want to help people think differently is cause some years ago I watched my brother chase loss after loss thinking he had all the answers complain about bad beats and how teams fucked him . I watched him rack up debt after debt . Not so much cause he was a bad gambler as much as what he needed to win every week to pay the vig on his debts was astromonical. By the time he finally gave in after alot of my involvement trying to get him to just stop and move on he was 300K in the hole after years of paying crazy sums to loansharks. So I post because I dont want anyone I know to ever go through that . Not because I want to be hailed and worshipped . I know from experience . I learned the old school way . My experience might not be the same as CKR's but since the day I gradutated college and went to work down Wall Street thats only I have been trying to do - Beat Markets .

So with that ramble and rant I am basically done . I have wasted way to much time here doing my best to teach people to look at things in a different manner . If I helped 10 or 20 people then I am proud of that . I simply dont want to waste my time arguing about what I know is valid when I could be using my time to be more constructive . I am not mad at anyone by any means . I promise that . There is nothing wrong with opossing opinions . I dont expect everyone to agree with me . There is no good in not being questioned . Which is a great part of posting an opinion . Some offers there valuable opinion as to why it may be an unwise choice . Thats how I learn . I learn from wins and losses . I look for reasons why things happen and dont concern how they happened . I am far from the best gambler in the world but I dont see many people who understand it to the depths I do and that because I started doing this on Wall Street first before I got my feet wet in this arena.

So I probably will post here and there this weekend but little going forward . I rather enjoy the summer and will start school come Sept . I am always easy to contact via PM or email . I just feel like I did all I can do . Nothing in my approach is gonna change in the near future so if you dont know my style by now all your going to miss is me repeating myself .

I made a mistake playing SF earlier cause I expected after they played in Bochy's words gis worst series of the season a bounce back effort with a solid SP on the hill. They got it but they are a bad team for a reason and blew it in the 8th and later 9th innings . End of story . I know when they look like a coin flip on the road now its best to pass because they will find a way to lose it . Unfortunately I was correct about the total but baely played it . Shit happens ....

It's just time for me to move on . Its 6 PM and since about 9 PM yesterday all I did was talk about this Wash total , sleep a few hours and talk about this Wash total. The funny part is I am defending a winning decision which I called the situation out well before it occurred .....and have capped no games for Friday and lost 2.5 units already ...If you knew me in everyday life you would know I dont have an ego and only care about being helpful. I just feel there is to much concern with wrong and right and not enough listening to eachother .

Thats it and not mad by any stretch but I just feel I need to do other things with my time. :shake:

Good Luck all . :cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
Frankly , I am tired of how these pros are worshipped because they have big bankrolls . Labels dont give one person a better understanding .


Simply because so called pros have there ways of doing things doesnt make them better or correct . Which is a trap you have fallen into . There is no right way to do anything in life . Afford me there bankrolls and KNOW I will outperform any of them . Try gambling with ZERO income and for the most part zero bankroll , its not quite that easy to just fire away and trust your opinions when if your wrong its a burden .
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Just tackling this one at a time.

If you are as good as any of these guys, then it is quite easy to find someone to back you. It's not like these guys just picked money out of trees to get their bankroll. Whether by inheritance, hard work, or gambling, they've got money...

People like money. If they see you can help them make money betting on sports, then you will get a chance at some point to work for them. They are out there - I've been contacted a time or two to try to work with some of these guys. Your work on the internet (writeups) is usually more profound than mine and I'm quite sure you have built up a decent (and well deserved) following of people who care what you have to say. Hang tight and you will one day get a chance to prove yourself - even if it's just $500 freeroll bets to start with.
 
SportsNut said:
AGAIN I never FADE the public . First every BET taken is PUBLIC action . So you cant fade the public and well I dont see what edges a so called Sharp has over me since every wiseguy play mentioned seems to be something I have already played . Regardless SHARP action is part of the same market . Markets are efficient IMO they weed out bad prices and if they dont you need to stop and ask two things :

1- Do I see something MOST others dont
2- I am missing something that others see

I simply understand perception better then most and how when perception gets ahead of reality illogical things occur . As I said millions of times before I learned my craft trading bonds and watching bond issues move up , down , left and right all day for 10 hours a day for years . You think this is hard try doing bond swaps the simutaneous buying and selling of bond issues a market moving 100's of times faster with 100's of millions of dollars at stake. I bring that up because I want people to know I am not speaking out of my ass . Sports betting today is a Market . Its about who and why people are buying and selling teams or SP's . If the logic is off or the price is off then I know how to act .Thats the perception I speak of and hopefully I will never have to explain it again. Everything works in patterns . Thats why people look at Stock Charts or in the gambling world look to discover relevant trends to apply . Its the explotation of a PATTERN! Which is what I did . I saw a total that should have opened at a certain place open uncharacteristically higher and get bet down even if it was 7 -105 it was the wrong open . What do you think I did in the Texas game ? Since that happened more logically it appears more correct ??? Sometimes I think backwards . I use my instincts to see what looks off and research what makes its a valueable play . As I said yesterday Bergmann on extra rest was not as sharp in his last 10 starts as his normal rest starts and 4 of the 6 were overs I believe . So I start with the fact I see 7.5 on a game that might warrant a 6.5 based on recent performance . Of course I know everyone is running to bet the under . Sharp , square , superhero , everyone ....its commonsense . When you see 2-0 , 5-0 , like in this discussion people think in narrow spaces . Just like when teams are playing poorly and people expect the to bounce back for no relevant reason I continue to fade .

Unfortunately everyone rather prove they are right then listen and hear . I may be wrong but I havent seen many people LISTEN or HEAR what I am saying . We are still debating wrong and right which was something early on I said did not APPLY . My points about Arizona scoring chances are simple . They had opportunities and wasted them . How many missed opportunities are going to happen in a game ? Something has to give . Either Zona breaks through or Wash does eventually . Its inevitable . Because they missed the first 5 times they are supposed to miss the next 5 as well? You expect things to happen in a rational manner and well that is jsut not how life works . You must understand you cannot change 1 play without changing everything that happens afterwards . Change one moment in your past and your life is different . If Arizona scores 1 or 2 more runs it might lead to Bergmann's exit quicker , it might lead to Haren being PH with MOB in a 4-0 game , any one things changes the entire game there after changes so you dont know how it played it afterward . I dont and you dont . My point is this what is supposed to happen will ALWAYS find a way to happen . It doesnt simply end 4-2 first off because Wash down 4-2 with bases loaded no out isnt as satisfied cause the game is not tied. So you just cant go in adding 1 run here or 2 runs there for Arizona and know your not creating an entirely different game. Zona doesnt bear down like it did either . The score changes everything after changes .....
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good points, all.
 
Outside of the hows & whys people arrive at their decisions, I've seen Nut make a total call like yesterdays AZ/WAS affair numerous times, where the line hasn't sat right (to whatever degree) with the physical factors heading into a game.

I think the issue of contention here is those who feel someone who bet Over got lucky having otherwise been on the "wrong side", while Nut, having made the call that something would happen, somehow, to take the game Over and as it happened that way, doesnt feel his win was the "wrong side" beyond the fact the win itself proved it wasn't the wrong side.

I can see both sides, and FWIW I dont believe in right or wrong sides either, pretty much because of what Satyr said. The reality of randomness in baseball is so much higher than in any other sport, is because there are so many individuals involved, with so many specialised jobs. Sports with individuals involved are always going to have a greater random factor involved than team sports, because the random sequence in a team sport has to go through a stronger collective (ie, a soccer defender can fuck up freakishly, but the attacker who benefits still has to then go through the goalie before that defenders freak fuck up actually means anything).
But while baseball is called a team sport, its really about a collective of individuals performing individually. Noone can cover your back at the plate like a fellow defender can cover your back in soccer. And thats why a team can dominate for 8 innings, then a new individual come into the game cold and because he's off, can completely rape all the efforts that have gone before him by the rest of his team. That can't happen in football - a team can't lead 28-0 with 5 mins to go, and then have 1 substitute enter the game and concede 5 TDs to lose soley because of that substitutes presence, can't happen. Because that's a real team sport.
The random factor is amplified the more a team depends on specific individual efforts, that's the real reason why the worst teams still win their 60-70 games. If baseball was truly a team sport, the bad teams would at best win 30-40 games, and therefore the present schedule would be untenable.
Golf is another sport open to a huge randomness factor because of its individual nature. Just ask Jean Van de Velde - 1 hole (the last one) out of 72 cost him a major. Was Van Der Velde the "right" side for that British Open? 1 hole or 1 inning costing someone a win, doesn't matter.

Yesterday produced a line that I'd come closest to saying indicated a "right" side/good bet (CLE/Laffey vs TBY/Sonnanstine). But that line didn't guarantee a Tribe win, and unless something is guaranteed, it can't IMO be called "right" in the context we're talking about (which is winning).
Those who get paid for their bet placed were right, they have the money to prove it. Being wrong (having lost) and calling it right is Orwellian double-speak. An Under thats 0-0 into the top of the 9th and then sees a 13 run inning, was the wrong side. An Over with 9 runs in the top of the 1st that finishes with a 9-0 scoreline, was the wrong side. Because what happened in previous innings guarantees nothing about the very next .5 inning, because of the excessive random factor scale of possibilities that this team sport of individuals allows for.

We don't always agree, Nut, but I'm sorry you won't be posting frequently anymore. Always interested in any angles others have.:cheers:
 
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SN, you know where we stand, we are online friends. i agree w/ pretty much everything you just posted even if it does sound a little know-it-allish. i respect your capping along w/ many others. i guess there is no right and wrong in gambling, just wins and losses no matter how the result happened. i know it was getting heated last night but i hope you understand i was pist off for being told i was on the wrong play in a 2-0 game in the bottom ninth, even though it was a losing play. i guess i try to make my best decisions in plays. ill talk to you later SN. ill have more to say.
 
SportsNut said:
So @ Oak -

Did the OAK game go exactly like I suspected ? No , but it was a low socring Oak win which it what I bet . So in your world because Brandon Morrow has 0.67 ERA he is never supposed to allow runs ? HIS FIRST Earned runs allowed in 2 months...
So he is Mo Rivera now ? Right ..that 's what you are saying ?

He's been better than Rivera since May.


You expected them to get shutout ? Not necessarily.

 You expected SEA pen to be able to win a close game ?
Yes.

They had a huge gap in bullpen strength .
Disagree.

So how was Seattle right ? Oh , you got suckered into the price arguement . There was no logical reason how SEA could win that game. So why did 160 present value ?

That's where you and I will just never see eye to eye. The Mariners had about a 40-45 percent chance to win it the way I played it out, especially considering despite how bad they are, they have the DEED to Oakland and own their ass. +166 was a ridiculous price and I would take it again tomorrow, even though it's a moot point because there will never be the same teams playing in that situation again in the history of baseball.


Unfortunately most people suffer from ego problems and need to tell themselves I have bad luck , my play was right , etc to make themselves feel better . Like the kid in the playground who loses a 1 on 1 game but jumps up and down saying he is better . The guy who screams he is cursed with bad luck. Its simple dont rely on LUCK . If there is a caution sign slow down and think .

I said earlier in the thread that I do most of my thinking when I WIN a game that I was on the WRONG side of. Not sure if you saw that part or not, but that's the way I do it and would recommend to others to do the same.



Its not for debate . Losing plays arent right.

You're right. Not worth debating. Because losing plays CAN be the right side, and winning plays CAN be the wrong side. That's the one thing that differs from the stock market. You're not always rewarded for your hard work. Sometimes laziness prevails. Sometimes LUCK prevails. But we'll never see eye-to-eye on this.

We cannot play the games. All we can do is look at the lines, try to get the best of the numbers (your stock market theory at work) and hope for the best. We don't know the players, influence the games, or any of that. Once the ball is in the air (barring in-game betting or halftime betting), it's out of our hands...



I must be so special . Thankfully , I dont believe that . I just am perceptive . Sometimes to perceptive .

Forgive me for saying so, but pointing out 3 or 4 games where you were perceptive enough to get the cash on a day where you bet about 50 (is that right?) doesn't lead me to think you're Nostradamus. A lot of the things you were saying were basically common knowledge and/or easy to see if you were watching the games on TV like I was.

Which is why gamblers lose because they rely on previous events to predict future events .

Past performance is not NECESSARILY an indicator of future success. That I know. But every little bit of information helps when trying to come up with the right side. To dismiss it entirely is wrong, in my opinion.



Did I know the way the total open and subsquently moved was a tipoff to play the OVER . Yes , I did and said before the game started ....... and did the same @ Texas.....

Just because the line moves one way or the other at post doesn't mean that there was a 'tipoff' to play a certain side or total in any specific game.


I hope that after CKR still looks at me in the same manner as I truly do respect him. If he doesnt that is his choice . I am confident I know what I am talking about . Like I said I have used this everyday for a decade .

I still respect you, sir. And a lot of what you say is absolutely right, and you usually don't have trouble admitting when you are wrong about a bet or something else. Where I have a problem with you is that you are stone-set in your ways (just as a lot of us are) and refuse to admit that there might be other and/or more efficient ways to see a situation. Where I have the advantage over you and everyone in this forum that I know of is that I monitor bets coming from all 50 states and other countries on a daily basis. You might THINK you know what you're talking about MOST of the time - but I believe that more times than not, when it comes to situations that pertain to the industry, that I have as good of a feel on things as any other 31-year old kid I know.
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Thanks for taking the time to respond... GL tonight and this weekend...

:shake:
 
I'm slightly confused as to why such a big deal is made on a differentiation of opinion. If everyone didn't have a different opinion, I wouldn't be signing on this damn forum everyday. Whether a guy is an idiot (certainly not SN) or a fuckin statistical genius, there is always something you can learn from them. I think we need to stop and appreciate the variances in opinion rather then get defensive on your own fundamental beliefs. I respect both CKR and SN, but I cannot agree with either of them at least 40% of the time and play the opposite side. I really wish people would stop taking things so personally. I know you do this for a living, CKR, and probably SN, but you cannot tell any fellow person in any profession that their thought process is wrong when they are producing positive results. You guys both are overall winners as i understand. It's not a black and white perspective. So let's just leave a little room for a gray area and move on...

SN, certainly understand your frustration via the long-ass post, but I am certainly among the 10-20 people that has learned a lot from you without being a zealous tailer. Your thoughts are always appreciated.
 
You guys aint gonna like much here of what I say.

First of all CKR is coming from the wrong side of the table now, as he see things differently and is mainly influenced by action and reaction of guys making bets where he works. I dont mean he is wrong, but there are a few major things missing here from ALL of the guys posting.

Prices on all games has its value. BUT none of the value is even, and no one here really knows a lot of how the value is "perceived".

I didnt read every line in each blog, but there isnt one guy here that can prove me wrong on some of what Im going to say.

There is NO WAY many of you know how the point spread is truly made. I have been on forums since they became popular and posting info for 20 years through many different outlets and media sources. Everyone has a way that THEY understand for themselves that helps them cap sports.

I have no method for bases, baskets, hockey or ping-pong - but to evaluate the info, as best I can, and try to believe that I have an edge for a play.

But, what Sportsnut is saying is true for him and mainly he is right about his approach. It's about perception that HE uses for his OWN logic on betting a game. In his world, he is confident.

But there is more to this than just his perception, as he admittedly stated that its different when you are betting with NO money, some money or endless money.

This thought of losing and not enough money, is always what makes a gambler second-guess himself. The ONLY reason that this happens to gamblers whether they are pros or amateurs, is because they have NO real scientific method to trust. AND - they dont know WHY the pointspread is wrong - IF they FEEL it is! They only think its because someone bet the other side too much, like sharps or whoever!

I am not posting here in this tread for ego reasons and I may not even make all the points I want to make, but I will say that without a scientific value on a side of a game, you cant ever make a bet without being drawn off it because of perceptions and the belief that someone probably loaded up on the other side to move the line.

And as far as Im concerned, less than 1% of all the bets made in the last 60 years ever moved a number against Vegas to cause them any harm.

Most of the guys gambling believe that Vegas moves the line to even out the money on a game. That my friend is not true . What is true, is that all the casinos move lines to balance their own money bet at their house because they never set the line in the first place. They are ORDER TAKERS! NOT scientific geniuses.

But there are games that are posted that never move enough even if action is extremely heavy on one side. As you guys all know, they can only move it so far or they can get "middled" and lose twice on one bet. Because of that fact - Vegas has a winner in the wings just waiting for the final gun to go off.

I have had several different conversations and dialog with quite a few cappers on this site and others before this. NONE of them agree with me. They all think, that all the line does, is balance the money wagered, so the casino gets the juice as profit. That will be true on only a portion of games. NOT all of them.

If CKR is working the counter and taking wagers he probably cant find 50% of the bets with even amounts of money on both teams in a game. His ML odds on some will help the imbalance but when were talking point spreads instead of ML's that is a different world. I have never seen a bookie or a house with balance across the board ever. ( I Know why, I'll explain later)

Point spreads are scientific, and MLs are odds. There is a vast difference and the two cant be compared. Baseball ML's (moneylines) are perception, pointspreads sre scientific. Run lines are subjective to pitchers and hitters and is based on scientific probables. The ONLY one's I have ever conquered are football lines.

Just a short tme ago I asked for capping systems from most of the guys who cap themselves in another thread here for College and Pro football.

One of the most true points made, was by Mags ('Quote" I've been pretty consistent in college ball the last couple of years since I decided to stop playing so many games: end quote).

He is stating - that he now plays less games because he finds it has improved his betting strategy and the outcomes were better for him. By reducing his volume of games he plays in a day he does better. Now here's where "perception" comes into play. 1. There can only be a more focused study of particular games for him. 2. Therefore, he caps them without pressure of having to cap all 100 teams as intense as he caps the few plays. 3. His bankroll isnt stretched out to accommodate excessive plays and he can pay closer attention to some teams he really likes with less pressure.

My point again is, everyone has ways to cap.

Sportsnut is 100% right on his points. He has run this way for 10 years. But its HIS way.

CKR is great at his game as well, but he has never used scientific facts in any of his posts that I have read on football games. Therefore he is just a right as Sportsnut.

Here is the question that you all must ask. When YOU feel the line is wrong, what makes you think you know why?

If you can't PROVE its off or wrong, then you have no basis for feeling its off or wrong from anything but perception!

Now - if you have a formula that is scientific, then it will validate wrong spreads and right ones. Now, how many of you have that for a particular sport?

Ive only found it for football. I have never found it for any other sport.

More later as I have no time left for now...
 
There is NO VALUE in the theory this play will be successful so and so amount of times so I will play it repeatedly . That is wishful thinking . So price plays a role in comparision to the situation paying off THAT day not the next 100 times you play it .

I know that everyone wants to say that there is no right or wrong to things in sports gambling. But this is wrong. period. I can prove that it is wrong. Anyone on the board give me the most positive ml winner tomorrow on the board and i will take the other side at +400. Lets do this for the whole season. I win. You lose. The price in baseball is everything. Who cares if the yankees are going to win a particular game more times than they will lose it. I want to know if they are going to win it enough times at the price given to make a profit betting on them.

So price plays a role in comparision to the situation paying off THAT day not the next 100 times you play it .

This is a complete misportrayal of what people are saying when they say that they need a team to win the game at "X "% of the time in order to profit. They don't mean the next 100 times. They mean that game , that situation at that exact moment ....what percent of the time would team A beat team B ". It is extremely rare for me to bet a +200 dog in baseball where I "expect" that team to win. Very rare. There is usually a logical reason why one team is favored by that much. The reason that I make the bet is that i think they win that game enough times at that price to turn a profit. Again this is easily proven...... anyone pick a winner tomorrow in baseball and i will take the other side at +400. No one will do this because the price will be wrong, no matter how they have capped the game out. As handicappers we have to determine what price range is fair ( those ranges where profit cannot be made betting either side ) and what price range is not fair ( those ranges where we have an edge betting on one side or the other ).

Imagine the flipping of a coin wager. I bet Batman that the coin will come up heads and he bets me that it will come up tails. If i win , he has to pay me $100 and if he wins I have to pay him $1.

We flip the coin. It comes up tails. Batman wins. Since Batman won was he on the right side of the bet ?

You cannot determine value of the bet based on the final score.
 
We flip the coin. It comes up tails. Batman wins. Since Batman won was he on the right side of the bet ?
Click to expand...

Batman was on the bad end of that bet. He was on the "right side" if he won, if I must use that langauge at all.
In my post above, I didn't venture into the territory of odds for that reason - I don't use the language of right/wrong side in relation to odds, I use the good/bad bet dichotomy instead. I simply don't believe in right/wrong sides, I do believe in good/bad bets, for example...

What if you got 10:1 odds on the coin flip and put 50k on it, every last cent you own in the world. Have you then made a good bet? Someone might argue because the odds are so far off reality, you have. I'd argue you havent, because you'll have nothing left if you lose.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Batman was on the bad end of that bet. He was on the "right side" if he won, if I must use that langauge at all.
Click to expand...
BetCrimes1984 said:
In my post above, I didn't venture into the territory of odds for that reason - I don't use the language of right/wrong side in relation to odds, I use the good/bad bet dichotomy instead. I simply don't believe in right/wrong sides, I do believe in good/bad bets, for example...

What if you got 10:1 odds on the coin flip and put 50k on it, everything cent you own in the world. Have you then made a good bet? Someone might argue because the odds are so far off reality, you have. I'd argue you havent, because you'll have nothing left if you lose.
Click to expand...


That is a bankroll management issue.

He was on the right side of the flip but not the bet, is what you are saying. Isn't the right side of the bet what we are discussing here ?? I mean we already know which team won. It is history now.

Perhaps I am lost in the semantics of the words. All I am saying is that there is a Right side to a wager ( one that is long term profitable ) and a wrong side ( one that is not profitable long term ) and of course in a lot of sporting events both sides are wrong sides ( long term unprofitable no matter which side you bet ).
 
The debate about odds is ---fascinating. Next time I take a flight will certainly dig into it or take a nap. Time will tell. On a different topic lets talk about arguing. I think arguing is very good. My heiritage of bridge, backgammon, sports and poker could be described accurately as a long series of arguments. Losing SportsNut would be crippling as he is virtually the only person here I can get into arguments with. Why that is is a mystery because it is most assuredly crazy not to debate this stuff. You can only grow in good competition so I guess what baffles me is that somehow this thread seems to be a mini argument that refuses to come clean so it festers. Pretty silly. Just debate the Games and the relative value of styles probably will be demonstrated over time by What Happens. Hope you stay SportsNut. :cheers:
 
Had no idea that sportsnut was considering leaving and apologize to the whole forum if any participation in this thread contributes in any way to such an occurence.

Would be a devastating loss. Don't do it nut.
 
SportsNut said:
It's just time for me to move on . Its 6 PM and since about 9 PM yesterday all I did was talk about this Wash total , sleep a few hours and talk about this Wash total. The funny part is I am defending a winning decision which I called the situation out well before it occurred .....and have capped no games for Friday and lost 2.5 units already ...If you knew me in everyday life you would know I dont have an ego and only care about being helpful. I just feel there is to much concern with wrong and right and not enough listening to eachother .
Click to expand...

I for one will be sorry to see you go...I think all this shit has really gotten out of hand. IMO, there is nobody on this forum as accessible as you. You take the time to:

1. Show your homework
2. Explain your findings
3. Give your best assessments of any game matchups
4. Treat everyone in a professional manner

You can tell this by the number of hits to the discussion thread. You have quite the following contingent reading your material (which has to be helping them to become better cappers and putting coin in their pockets). Many people with your knowledge would not be so sharing. I'm sure this forum recognizes your efforts...and you leaving would be a great loss.

One final note SN, you put yourself out there everyday when you post. This exposure leaves yourself open for personal attacks (nature of the beast). I've never seen you get mad or act irrational in your behavior. I think your a class act and an overall good guy.

Best Regards, Shorty:shake:

PS...I still think I should've cashed that UNDER...oh well, that's why they call it gambling.
 
SN- I hope you continue posting with regularity. There is absolutely nothing wrong with being unconventional if you are comfortable with it and successful. You're both. I enjoy the insight as it often comes from a different vantage point.
 
That is a bankroll management issue.

He was on the right side of the flip but not the bet, is what you are saying. Isn't the right side of the bet what we are discussing here ?? I mean we already know which team won. It is history now.

Perhaps I am lost in the semantics of the words.
Click to expand...

- while it is a BR issue, that's still part of what goes into a bet being a good or bad one.

- This began in Thursday's thread over a total line, a discussion about the [statistical] circumstances that made for betting the "right side" of that total line. The discussion never had anything to do with the odds for either side of that total line.
That's why I say you're talking about good/bad bets, not right/wrong bets (really, sides). Different language for each realm. The "right" total line side (based on stats analysis) could have bad odds. The "wrong" total line side (based on stats analysis) could have good odds.

If the odds had been +500 for either side of that AZ/Wash total, this discussion would have never existed, because there'd be no room for it to have begun. Everyone would have known then what the "right" side slash good bet was to make.
 
SportsNut, you have helped me, and have helped many others. I feel for your brother, I really do, I know it can be pretty easy to get caught up and end up in a huge hole before you know it. Didn't happen to me personally but I've seen people lose their houses on all sorts of gambling.

I think I can relate to what you said about trying to beat the market. I'm not as experienced as you, only 24 years old, but this is what I've been trying to do as well. I don't get thrills or rushes from betting, my eyes don't shine when I see my account boosted for a couple of thousand, I'm not riding the emotional rollercoaster, I'm looking at things from an analytical standpoint as as much as everyone else who is into this deep enough is trying to do the same in his own way.

I think we help each other. I'd like to think I helped a bit, I know many of you certainly helped me.

Now enough of this cocksucking, I wanted to say some things. :D

Regarding the right side. I think I know where you're coming from. In the endless sea of all possible occurrences and scenarios people tend to get caught up thinking whenever they win it was the right side, because they capped it so well, and whenever they lose it's the unexpected thing that buried them.

These are extremes, so we'll leave such degenerates aside. I agree with BetCrimes about baseball being the most individually affected sport of all team sports. One man can make the biggest difference.

However, I would urge you to read what vegaskyle wrote. He made it graphic and purposely exaggerated, but the point is, I do think sometimes even a lost bet can be the right side. NOT in regards of W or L, because CLEARLY Wins are the only thing that count, but in regards to analyzing the situation prior of the game and how the game actually developed.


We can only do so much and cap fundamentals. It's the same in every sport. You can't cap the little details: I mean who can say "Todd Jones will blow his save tonight". Of course you're not counting on him to do the job every single time, but if you cap the game right and use all the angles, situational, pitcher splits, h2h, lineup, ump, etc, etc, etc...in your favor...and he still goes on and blow a game after they were up 5:0 in bottom of the 9th...how is that NOT the right side, especially if you got a nice pricetag to go along with it. So if a bet is, according to your estimations, 55:45, and the actual odds say 51:49, by betting the discrepancy you should end up on top.

And this is ALL I am interested in. I have a concept. The concept is called, 110% ROI or better. You may think it's easy, because there are always cappers on various boards who are, at some point, hitting amazing 65% or similar, and making 125% or more.

But CONSISTENTLY, over the course of several years, meaning numerous seasons in the sports I cap, it is extremely difficult to maintain such an efficiency.

This is what I've focused on. I'm 110.4% after 2400 documented bets since 2003. And I'm looking to improve. I haven't had a losing season ever in any of the sports I cap sans NFL last year (-25 units, 5 units = average bet). It was my rookie season so it's still ok. I had a small loss in last soccer season but I don't really cap soccer. Which is strange since I've prolly watched 2000 soccer matches in my life and prolly around 300 MLB games. How can I do worse in soccer than in MLB only God knows, since I don't.

I understand what you mean when you say only wins matter, but what I meant to say is you can only cap so much. You can cap by using valid edges and indicators to determine the fair price and on the long run, you will do the job.

But when I say I understand what you mean, let's take a look at what happened tonight shall we. I took the Mets. They win. They could have lost. They had more hits but Perez turned into a walking machine later on and Mets had their fielders save the day more than once.

I had Boston over 11 runs at major plus money price. It was what, 3:3 after 3 innings. It was a pick the score situation. Ended up UNDER, as I got burnt by selling a run.

On the other side, I sold ONE AND A HALF RUN in the TEX-CHW game, which looked DONE and COOKED after 4-5 innings, as Texas lead 6:1 or something like that. Ended up JUST UNDER as I cashed in.

Looking back, I would say all my bets could have gone the other way. So little things decide, but basically if I take a +160 dog and the dog loses in a tough, close battle, I don't think I was necessarily wrong by betting the dog, as I capped the situation right, if you catch my drift.

I agree with Gman about the misconceptions that go around, but you're welcome to share your knowledge with us, to the extent you feel comfortable with. But what can be said really since you admitted yourself that in 20 years in the business you've figured out the football lines. No baseball lines (except that MLs are odds and spreads are scientific), and no NBA lines.

It means it's very hard to do, meaning people do tend to exaggerate on some things to artificially create angles to hold on to. So them making mistakes is understandable, I'm sure we've all said "team A should be fatigued after a killer schedule spot + missing 2 guys + a lookahead + more" and they still end up winning 11:2.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
- while it is a BR issue, that's still part of what goes into a bet being a good or bad one.

- This began in Thursday's thread over a total line, a discussion about the [statistical] circumstances that made for betting the "right side" of that total line. The discussion never had anything to do with the odds for either side of that total line.
That's why I say you're talking about good/bad bets, not right/wrong bets (really, sides). Different language for each realm. The "right" total line side (based on stats analysis) could have bad odds. The "wrong" total line side (based on stats analysis) could have good odds.

If the odds had been +500 for either side of that AZ/Wash total, this discussion would have never existed, because there'd be no room for it to have begun. Everyone would have known then what the "right" side slash good bet was to make.
Click to expand...

to me it always does correlate with the odds. We bet the lines, not winners. This isn't a competition of who wins more, this is a long term investment process. By betting bad lines you are depriving yourself of a lot of units, regardless of your hitrate, which can be only so good.

So basically since we're all using so many parameters in capping the game, why not FOLLOW HOW THOSE PARAMETERS and THOSE EDGES DO in the game you capped and invested money on?

again, this stands IF you are using valid parameters and edges.

For example, remember when you state the two teams "have left 38 baserunners stranded as your over met its doom", that's the thing. You can only cap the game for so much. You can't cap it in LITTLE DETAIL, a lot of random factors hovering around waiting to happen, and if I may add, ESPECIALLY in baseball.
 
Satyr, I understand that.

But go back to Thursdays thread, the discussion was about a total line (not its odds) and what that line supposedly said. The odds weren't anything out of the ordinary.

I dont believe in right & wrong sides, I do believe in good & bad bets, thou.
 
well potatoes potahtoes :D It could be the same thing. But I think we refer to the same thing, in regards to my mention of your over play which had 38 baserunners stranded.

Was that a good bet? I'm thinking yes, since you capped baserunners, hits and walks, and you could have only done so much. A different timing for those hits and you would have had that over nailed big time.

As far as that Zona/WAS bet, I'm thinking of that more as an insanely tough loss than anything else. Didn't see the game closely, the under could have been the better bet there, but hey, so many things happened there and it sailed over the total. Tough loss.
 
well potatoes potahtoes :D
Click to expand...

Well the odds were never discussed regarding that AZ/Wash game. I dont actually know what they were. If Under at 7.5 hypothetically paid +125, then IMO that was a good bet even thou I couldn't say it was the right side (since I simply don't use such language).
Good bets can be beat, but there's no room after the fact to say they "should" have won, which seems to be the implication from having the "right side".
 
All good stuff gentleman . I have browsed through most of it but havent read every single word in the proper context . Here 's what I can comment on quickly .

First topic is I am not mad at anyone and never was . My response simply was getting off my chest what was floating around in my head . My decision to walk away is simply based on the fact I know what I am doing every single day will not change . The input I recieve from you guys is always of value to me and two guys I love to here from BC and Tuck because there out of the box mentality is something I appreciate . They do more then just look at stats and thats what I am trying to preach to everyone . The list goes on and on of people I like to hear from and its definetly all the guys who commented in this thread . No one is pissing me off , no one is chasing me away or anything of that sort . My whole rant is based on observing and learning . I dont feel like I am going to learn much more about how the gambling game works . Surely I continue to learn and tweak my approach daily but my foundation is set . Its time tested in all sports and held up . I dont even watch much sports anymore . I can tell you I rarely watch anything outside of the NFL and Yankees anymore . The games dont matter to me the lines and perception do.


I like what GMan had to say about the indivual apsects of what works for a person . That's alot of what I am trying to say . I cant always rationalize what I feel or see always but at this point I dont need to convince myself . I just know when something is "off" . How and why I do not always know . I do my best to make a logical explanation why something might occur .

For example the Wash game I rationalized for the game to go over Bergmann would have to get hit because I expected Arizona to win and didnt expect Wash to hit Haren. The Texas game I implied that Lackey was due to regress after his laboring 121 pitch effort and Feldman due to the fact he was supposed to get extra rest and wound up losing 3 days of rest would be less then his usual . That is just a much a guess as the logic on Bergmann . Difference is I nailed the Texas game from the 1st pitch to the last . Thats not what its about though . I cant bet the entire board and guess correctly how each game will play out . Regardless of my prediction I won both plays and got paid the same way both times . No extra bonus because the Texas total play went down like I guessed. As BetCrimes pointed out its not the 1st time I pointed out something like this and its not the last .

What does irritate me is when people are not listening to what I am saying. If I come of as all knowing then so be it . I can prove with a winning ticket that what I saw had merit . I am quite confident I know what I am talking about on this topic . The difference with me is I listen and hear your points while it seems when people disagree with me they revert to the same point over and over and over . I will say that I was pissed that Jimbo took my comments as saying he was wrong when I repeatedly said thats not what I am saying and still today he thinks I am saying he is wrong . Mostly because he should know me better then that . The reason why I posted my thoughts BEFORE the game started was because I recalled Jimbo said his two big plays were CLE ML and Under @ Wash . Since I talk to him nearly everyday I posted my thoughts on the game where something struck me as odd . Do I need to say hey Jimbo I advise you not to play that ? Its a Discussion thread and POSTED my thoughts on the game . Did I not clearly say the LINE seemed off ?? Why I keep beating this subject into the heads of my fellow posters is because ego is the fatal flaw in everything . If you cannot accept that you somewhere along the line you missed something then you will never succeed because you will always look to blame something or someone for your mistake . So I gave the knowledge to the best of my ability what to look for in the future . One can apply it or dismiss as trying to be a know-it-all . It doesnt change me . I learned from failure . I wasnt born a good gambler or good trader but I looked why I lost in certain situations . When I bitch about a losing streak what do I always say ? My decision making is terrible . I never say its anyone's fault but mine . Thats all I am trying to teach . You ever read about people success stories and it almost always starts with some sort of failure as a building block . Thats my message . Learn from losses . Every win and every loss has that almost feel where 1 minor change could have changed the outcome . I had the under 10 @ Boston which pushed but Boston had bases loaded in the 9th and I had under 11 @ Texas which had the same thing . Neither game featured alot of hits for DD totals but both were one swing away from losing . So again RIGHT & Wrong dont matter in this game only winning and losing . How many people ran to be the over @ Texas saying Mendoza sucks? I simply said Mendoza is effective vs RHBs and the WSox lineup is a good matchup for him before I logged off last nite in the discussion thread . So I am smarter then anyone or do I simply know when its best to read inbewteen the lines and when its best to lay -160 on Jake Peavy ?

I love the points Satyr and BC bring up about randomness . It 's such a great angle to think about it . How many times have we witnessed a SP get pulled an easy win get pissed away by a reliever in a blink ?? As I said once you change one factor everything else afterwards is different . How bout the fact an 2 out IF single yesterday is what triggered the 3 run 10th by Zona . Do you think Rauch expected that the IF single was the sign the floodgates were about to open ?

I dont expect nor want everyone to agree with me . It would be a boring world. I simply find myself to often arguing about points I know are valid such as this . It;s summer , its nice out and my last 2 days were spent arguing about this and I spent literally 5 minutes outside the house . Outside of sleep I did nothing but say the same thing over and over again on this topic. Do I need to realize what I am preaching ? I clearly dont as I understand very well and apply it very well. I bet 25 sides and totals TODAY and went 17-8 . So I must have some sort of grasp.

CKR is a very helpful person and always have been . I simply disagree with the notion he knows more then I do simply because he works in the industry and gets paids for his lines . I disagree with the notion that because someone is recognized as a PRO they are automatically better then me . Thats my opinion . I recall from the earlier discussion thread today Jimbo saying the "public" was on the under @ Wrigley today . Which CKR said he thought he was actually a syndicate who knocked it down looking to buy it back. Since I was already arguing with both last nite I didnt comment. However explain what logical sense either opinion held ? The game @ Wrigley yesterday saw what 18 runs and 10 Hrs and your telling me the avg person is betting the under the next day ? To me that makes no sense since yesterday's game was not an obvious over play . Second I surely hope a syndicate would not be foolish enough to bet a 11.5 total to 11 just to bet the 11 strong . What exactly would be the difference in 11.5 and 11 ? Your betting a windy game @ Wrigley which tends to see somewhere bewteen 13-20 runs and your going to tell me a professional outfit is looking for a half run on a total that size? Again simple logic that anyone can apply to figure out why a line is moving . Its not about being right its about getting a feel why things happen without having inside knowledge .

Being told I am wrong and without nothing substantial to indicate so other then a conflicting opinion doesnt make sense to me . By no means am I implying my opinion holds more merit of value but I do feel when I comment I have a logical point behind it .

Even going back to the umpire issues . Many times I commented how the smallest factor in the outcome of a total is the umpire . Naturally if Know who is behind the plate its a plus but so many guys are NEUTRAL in reference to the outcome they are few you need to concern yourself with . However people rather tell me how foolish or mistaken I am rather then hear what I have to say . I give VK alot of credit on this subject because we butted heads briefly and I admire the fact he took the time to understand what I was trying to say before condeming it . As I do Shortline since e works his ass of to put a database together but still takes the time to hear my opinion on the subject . Maybe some points I make are incorrect but maybe some are correct .

I leave it that tonight . My leaving is not something set in stone its something I need to do for personal reasons to prioritize my life . Not one single person or poster played any role in this . I said to myself I would know when its time and somehow I just know now its time. I always will find time for CTG friends whether gambling related or personal . If somewhere in this thread I came off as all knowing I apologize . Its truly not my intent but to express confidence I must speak with comviction . I feel even at 33 I have experienced more scenarios and situations in life that most will never have to experience and simply draw from them. The old if I only knew then what I knew now feeling .....

Just be willing to listen , hear and learn .......thats what you have taught me . :cheers:
 
Joe Public said:
Great post, Rex.

Hey, quick question. You know, I've never actually understood things like "7.5u60."

I don't bet baseball, and I seem to very rarely deal with it in other sports or, if I do, I don't know that I'm dealing with it. Is that short hand for the under is at -160?
Click to expand...

YES
 
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