Some Early CF Prop and RSW Bets

[lvmike32]

Hey all, made the following bets at 5d:

McCaffrey to get invited to Heisman -105 1u.
Michigan O9.5 RSW -165 1u

Barring injury don't see how McCaffrey isn't invited to ceremony. I know teams will key on him but don't think it's going to matter unless their QB can't play at all. I don't see many Fournette vs. Bama defense games for him at all.

Here is Michigan schedule.
Haw, UCF, Col, PSU, Wis, @Rut, IU, @MSU, MD, @Iowa, Ind, @OSU

1st 5 at home and only 4 road games with no back to back, albeit at MSU, Iowa and OSU. But I think MSU and Iowa will take a step back this year and Michigan will take step forward. don't like the juice and wouldn't bet it except for Harbaugh - think this team goes 10-2 at worst. worth a unit.

Always interested in feedback.

 

[cubsker]

hard to see mich losing any of

haw
ucf
col
rut
iu
md
ind

without having run the numbers, it looks pretty solid.

 

[twinkie13]

yea Mich Schedule is pretty weak

 

[lvmike32]

Feeling ok about the bets. McCaffrey is now -150 and Michigan is -185, though it's only -140 at SP which I missed. Surprised such a gap between SP and 5d. Added ND to make a New Years Day 6 bowl at +120 and it's down to +100. I thought Michigan schedule was favorable - ND has 9 home games this year. Amazing. Played the Chiefs O9 1/2 -120 - think they have a pretty favorable schedule and they Houston early w/o Watt. Smith can't get hurt though. Thought they had a great backup in Daniel. Lastly played UCLA to win PAC 12 South +173 - going with they got the QB who likely is the #1 pick next year. Always like feedback. This is about all I see that I really liked.

 

[s--k]

Three of those ND games are at neutral sites (Giants Stadium, Jax and San Antonio), but yeah only 3 true road games.

I like your plays. I'd play Michigan O 9.5...with no online source, by the time I get it in Vegas it will probably be 10 though. They seem like a safe 10-2 type team, I give them potential to drop 2 worst case. I was surprised to see that all of their first and second team B1G players returned, think it was 8 all conf players. Not one left early or graduated from last year's team. The senior bowl guy said that they may have double digit players from this team going to their all star game. Alot of good vets on that team. Let's hope Okorn is good enough.

 

[s--k]

Most home games anyone has I think is 8. Just a couple teams have that many.

 

[TheSportsCruncher]

Yeah, Michigan has one of the highest win floors I'm seeing at 9 games. Barring an upset of any of those games where they should be 10+ point faves, they just have to sweat the 3 roadies at MSU, Iowa and OSU. I project losses of 1.2, 2, and 8.6 points in those games, so odds are they'll nab one of the first two to get their 10 wins.

 

[lvmike32]

SK, thanks. Was looking at ESPN's schedule and they only had the @ for 3 games - should have known some neutrals in there. But I like Kelly a lot and it's ND - even with 3 losses they might get a Top 12 game - would just depend on how everyone else does.

TSC, thanks. PSU and Wiscy are part of Michigan's 1st 5 at home but I think they handle both pretty easy. So to me that leaves exactly as you say above - my bet is on Harbaugh in his 2nd year and think they win 2 of them at least. 9-3 would be a huge disappointment for them. Love Meyer too - hit OSU to win NC 2 years ago at 25 to 1 which was a bet that they'd easily get through the B10 and get to NC game where I could hedge - got real lucky in how they got in. Think OSU is only threat to Michigan. But we'll see. As they say, that's why they play them. Still kicking myself for not getting -140 at SP though. Appreciate the feedback.