Some background into the 2006 season...

CollegeKingRex

CTG Regular
Some background on the 2006 season and what it is we're trying to do here...

This will be my third season on the other side of the counter - though make no mistake, I'm still very much a player. I work offshore but don't have any of my own players or packages. I am paid a flat salary and no commission, so I could care less whether the players win or not. One of my main jobs in overlooking our lines guys is to ensure the players don't hoodwink us - they don't lay 7 in a game that is moving to 8 all over the world at the same time - they at least lay us 7.5... I have other responsibilies as well, including sports writing for our company's website, and I make my own numbers in baseball, CFB, CBB and the Niffel - I bet the first three, wanted to watch and monitor my Niffel numbers before I start playing. But I regress.

Betting on sports is not as difficult as you guys make it out to be. There is no such thing as a "trap". There are fixes, but unfortunately it's very difficult to find out about them - before or after the fact - unless large money gets bet on one side of a game and there's no two-way action. In almost every game, though, remember - there is a winner and a loser. Hit more than 53 percent of your games and you cannot lose laying -110 or less. It's pretty simple to say but much more difficult to do.

Still, "the public" or "wagerline" are about the two most meaningless words I see and/or hear on the forums or talking with friends who are not in the business. Where I work, we have more southern California money out there than anywhere else, but there are clients all over the country here. We rarely shade a line because we're going to get bet on Notre Dame or Southern Cal or UCLA or whoever every week, if you know what I mean. After the initial shade towards the super-faves, there's no need to add an additional adjustment on air; otherwise you've giving value to the dog.

Customers are getting smarter, as people are quick to check facts and stuff on the gold-mine that is the Internet. Everyone who bets a game these days and tries to take it seriously is always going to have good reasons to bet the side he likes. Increasingly these days, the money comes on the underdog. That never used to happen and it's already created some unreal value on favorites in the college football in Week 1.

Some days I will have longer writeups than others. I will always try to justify the reason I bet the side I'm on. I had great success with the college football up through 2004 - but I lost last year for the first time since the 90s. Let's hope it all comes back this fall, and then some.
Remember one thing in this business, and in life.

"Winning ain't no accident" - it was from a bookmaker down here who I respect as the BEST in the entire industry.

He's been taking big bets for years and booking for 35-plus years. That comment alone made me wake up and pay attention to my work: you're not going to win if you don't invest your time into it - not over the long haul, anyways.

Here's to a successful season for all of us here at CTG. We're inside a week for first kicks!!!

:cheers:
 
money; Good write up, CKR.

Lot of respect and good inside info. Have to reread this a few times.
 
Good stuff Rexy.... I think it seems to me that sports gambling could be the most overanalyzed thing in the world. Can u imagine if we would put this much time and energy into other things?? LOL..
 
JumpOnBoard said:
Can u imagine if we would put this much time and energy into other things?? LOL..

Like getting a job, moving out of the parents basement, showering, seeing sunlight, and finding out about REAL LIVE girls besides my internet gf...
 
Fondybadger said:
Like getting a job, moving out of the parents basement, showering, seeing sunlight, and finding out about REAL LIVE girls besides my internet gf...

For me, paying attention to my wife!!! :consoling1:
 
Ross: Thanks buddy, though this is not good "inside info". I don't get it very often and by the time I do, a lot of times the line will have moved so far out of whack that it can't be worth anyone's time and effort to try and bet.

One thing I learned over any since getting here...

You ALWAYS want to get the best of the line. ALWAYS. Without question.

And there are some numbers that it's best not to EVER sell off of in favor of better juice (three in the NFL ring a bell anyone?)...

Good point Jump.

And you too, Fondy, ha ha
 
CKR:

"Inside info" meaning inside the book and how the industry operates. Not in terms of any game It's like my line of business, the more I know how insurance companies work and evaluate claims the better it is for me.

Good lines and low juice. Should be easy enough. ;)
 
Can u imagine if we would put this much time and energy into other things??

Shit, that's exactly what my wife keeps telling me.
Good to be aboard with you, Rex. Good luck in this endeavor at this site.
And I just happen to be betting on your alma on opening night. :bow:
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Right, I see now.

Duh.

Think I'll go have a beer and watch those baseball games, ha ha...

Drink an Imperial for me. I'll be drinking a few in an hour or so.
 
CollegeKingRex said:
Some background on the 2006 season and what it is we're trying to do here...

This will be my third season on the other side of the counter - though make no mistake, I'm still very much a player. I work offshore but don't have any of my own players or packages. I am paid a flat salary and no commission, so I could care less whether the players win or not. One of my main jobs in overlooking our lines guys is to ensure the players don't hoodwink us - they don't lay 7 in a game that is moving to 8 all over the world at the same time - they at least lay us 7.5... I have other responsibilies as well, including sports writing for our company's website, and I make my own numbers in baseball, CFB, CBB and the Niffel - I bet the first three, wanted to watch and monitor my Niffel numbers before I start playing. But I regress.

Betting on sports is not as difficult as you guys make it out to be. There is no such thing as a "trap". There are fixes, but unfortunately it's very difficult to find out about them - before or after the fact - unless large money gets bet on one side of a game and there's no two-way action. In almost every game, though, remember - there is a winner and a loser. Hit more than 53 percent of your games and you cannot lose laying -110 or less. It's pretty simple to say but much more difficult to do.

Still, "the public" or "wagerline" are about the two most meaningless words I see and/or hear on the forums or talking with friends who are not in the business. Where I work, we have more southern California money out there than anywhere else, but there are clients all over the country here. We rarely shade a line because we're going to get bet on Notre Dame or Southern Cal or UCLA or whoever every week, if you know what I mean. After the initial shade towards the super-faves, there's no need to add an additional adjustment on air; otherwise you've giving value to the dog.

Customers are getting smarter, as people are quick to check facts and stuff on the gold-mine that is the Internet. Everyone who bets a game these days and tries to take it seriously is always going to have good reasons to bet the side he likes. Increasingly these days, the money comes on the underdog. That never used to happen and it's already created some unreal value on favorites in the college football in Week 1.

Some days I will have longer writeups than others. I will always try to justify the reason I bet the side I'm on. I had great success with the college football up through 2004 - but I lost last year for the first time since the 90s. Let's hope it all comes back this fall, and then some.
Remember one thing in this business, and in life.

"Winning ain't no accident" - it was from a bookmaker down here who I respect as the BEST in the entire industry.

He's been taking big bets for years and booking for 35-plus years. That comment alone made me wake up and pay attention to my work: you're not going to win if you don't invest your time into it - not over the long haul, anyways.

Here's to a successful season for all of us here at CTG. We're inside a week for first kicks!!!

:cheers:


Good Luck to you also this season CKR.

One thing for certain. Losing ain't no accident either, its just the sign of a gambler who wasnt using the information properly, or doesn't know what it looks like.

Good Post here. Thats why everyone's input here is important. After all it's what we do!
 
You got it G-Man. Exactly right.

RJ: I'll be on my first Imperial within the hour. I'll toast a few to my Diego peeps. Go Dodgers.
 
"Some days I will have longer writeups than others. I will always try to justify the reason I bet the side I'm on. I had great success with the college football up through 2004 - but I lost last year for the first time since the 90s. Let's hope it all comes back this fall, and then some."

I barely broke even last year and I'm used to doing much better. Two things caused us to do poorly, Rexy, we had to go through a lot of unnecessary shit about that time (BTB) and for some reason, it was a season where the good dogs didn't cash like usual.

It will be different this season, dude!
smoke.gif
 
Helluva a post rexy. You'll get em this year your to damn good of a capper not to. This should be an interesting year on the forums with SD and SS so damn jealous and all the hating of what we got going on over here. I'm sure will hear it every time we go on a losing streak which is just plain sad.

Funny thing is I've never proclaimed to be a 60% capper and my record on covers the last 4 years shows I'm hitting at 54% of all my total plays. I've still won quite a loot of money because I weigh my plays. I love the sport and love the action so I will throw a $100-$200 bet on a play here or there. I probably hit my big money plays in the upper 60 % range but damn I just can't lay off when there's a game on TV lol.

People view both me and your threads more then anyones for the discussions then anything. I know 95% of the guys that post in my threads don't tail me they just want to hear maybe a different side of a bet a good convo going on the game. Which is why I never understood the hating that goes on.

That is why i always respected you as a capper and your threads were always some of the most infomative around.

GL to you buddy and I'm in the works on planning that trip to CR so I'll let ya know.

:cheers:
 
good shit Rex...do you ever think that your job affects your ability from the handicapping side?...meaning, trying to balance out action and handicapping games seem to be two different deals to me...just wondering if it leaves you as much time as you want to truly handicap the games...I know that your track record is solid, I just think I'd have a tougher time capping games in your position...regardless, good luck this season...
 
Pags: Good question. I don't think it does. All I do is make numbers, and if the numbers they come up with are different than mine, I bet.

Rarely will I bet against my own numbers and I can't tell you how many bets I add when something gets out of whack. For example, today in the baseball, I made Lohse a virtual PICK against Cain. So when I was able to take 117 with the Reds, I jumped on it. The line went up. So I took 122 with them. Then it went up again. I took 125. If it goes up more, I might take 128 if it's out there. A small bet suddenly becomes a big one because of value.

I don't worry about balancing out the action though, pags. That's not my job. I oversee a bunch of other guys down here who keep an eye on the charts. I just keep an eye out for major line moves, syndicate action, etc., and I do a boatload of writing for our website.

To answer your original question, if I had to keep an eye on my charts and whether we were long on every side or not and had to decide whether we wanted a decision on any certain game or not.... then yes, it would likely be more difficult for me to objectively come up with numbers.

Thanks Mugg, Horn, Denny... GL to us this season, I'm ready!!!
 
JumpOnBoard said:
Can u imagine if we would put this much time and energy into other things?? LOL..

Well, I for one would hate life.

This is the most lucrative thing I've ever done that I *LIKE* doing.

fuck teaching.

:smiley_acbe:
 
Great write-up CKR. I believe this year will be a big improvement now we are all togehter on one site and able share info without idiots bothering us.

I will be h eading from Lexington up to Papa John;s for the Sunday night game. Proly a no play, just a chance to tailgate, hope for a decent game and celebrate my winnings from Saturday.

Hope all is well in Costa Rica.
 
HennRoc said:
Great write-up CKR. I believe this year will be a big improvement now we are all togehter on one site and able share info without idiots bothering us.

I will be h eading from Lexington up to Papa John;s for the Sunday night game. Proly a no play, just a chance to tailgate, hope for a decent game and celebrate my winnings from Saturday.

Hope all is well in Costa Rica.

HennRoc, good to see you here, dude!
welcome.gif
 
Rex,

outstanding post...makes sense to me...also good to know there's a linesmaker that doesn't use the balanced action theory...books are at risk all of the time and having a guy like you watch over the numbers is a wise investment...

btw. Lohse struck me out in junior college the only time I faced him...the fucker...
 
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