Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Nothing amazes me more than the ability for a bettor (in this case me, and by "me" I mean "BAR"), to have bet football for years and yet to make the same mistake again and again. It's kind of amazing.
Yesterday I'm walking through a sports book, I look up at the board and say to myself outloud, "Heh, it looks like they're begging for Indy money." And of course what do I do? Sweet Jesus. Some days I'm amazed I can pay a hooker to tie my shoes for me. Or something like that.
But it wasn't just the Indy line. There were a number of those -6ish lines that smelled from a mile away. Hello, Chicago. That Birds line wasn't a six, but for a team that was a big road dog to start the season to jump to -7 in a week? Fishy.
Which isn't to call you an idiot if you bet any of those games, hell I bet the Colts so it shows you how much I know.
But since I brought up the Birds, let's start with them.
I love the LMU Paul Wesphal offense. It speeds up the game and makes the game far more interesting to watch—at least for me. But today we saw the biggest flaw in it and it's not about the offense. It's that when you run 364 offensive plays a game, you're going to allow the other team to run 288. And if you give a decent QB with decent weapons all those chances, they're going to find holes in your defense.
And that's if your defense is good—and I don't think anybody's jumping to that conclusion about the Birds' defense—you're going to be fucked.
San Diego had so many turnovers in the red zone today that they could have—and maybe should have—won that game by two TDs.
To paraphrase someone from the in-game, how the hell do you bet an under in Birds games if that's going to happen?
But if you have any of the Eagles' skill players on your fantasy team. Congrats.
For San Diego, they say Malcolm Floyd is OK and that he flew back with the team. And thank God he's not dead. However, he has to be concussed. So there you lose a weapon. You also have a running back who apparently doesn't enjoy hanging onto the football. Maybe you back them against bad teams? I mean they seem like they know how to move the football. But it's hard to really say they inspire confidence as far as a team that could threaten the top tier of the NFL.
And since I bring up the top tier, let's talk about the Green Bay Packers. Correct me if I'm wrong, because all I really did with that game is check in on the highlights, but they did what you'd expect a top tier team to do against a lesser opponent today. They beat them like AG watching Oliva Munn on The Newsroom.
Because her dialogue is so shit-tastic that's all you can really do with her when she's on screen in that show, that's why. For the love of God, man, give me back the tits.
Sorry. Here's my larger question, what the hell are we to do about the Skins. Two weeks, two teams shredding them defensively?
Thoughts, suggestions, answers?
Also speaking of good teams, the Cleveland Football Browns.
All right, fine, they suck, but let's get them out of the way.
This team has no legit #1 WR. Their coaching, for whatever reason seems to think that Richardson running well early is the perfect excuse to spend the second half using your offense to exclusively to shitty WRs.
Here's the problem, when you stop running Trent Richardson, your offense sucks balls. So unless your goal is to produce TV programming that consists entirely of professional football players tea-bagging each other for hours on end, the only person you're making happy is Steed. And that's not good enough.
I don't really know how much to take from that game if you're looking at Baltimore, though. First, that 10 day thing. Seriously I feel like I rarely see teams play well off that. (He says as Denver puts up 54 points on the Giants on the road.) Second, though, there's the SB hangover which I think is a real thing, the changeover in talent, Flacco's wife having a baby the morning of the game, etc.
Bottom line on the Ravens, they beat a team they should beat. So long as Ray Rice's hip is OK, I think the read on them is right. Good team that's rebuilding. Play them against teams like Cleveland or Buffalo or Oakland, etc. Pick spots against them when they play top tier teams.
All right, let's talk about Indy.
Actually, let's not, let's talk about Miami.
So I played the Colts because I like their talent more and their coaching more—that plus the fact that they were at home made this play a no-brainer to me. Well, that and the fact that I watched both Indy and Miami last week. Here's why I was wrong on Indy today.
I saw an Indy team last week that scored pretty well and, for me, played well enough on offense that if they improved even a little I'd consider them a solid offensive team. I also saw a Miami team that really didn't impress me vs. Cleveland until the second half. But that I chalked mostly up to the fact that I think the Browns have a horrible secondary and that Miami figured out if they'd just pass protect they could move down the field in chunks on Cleveland pretty much at will.
Here's what I selectively ignored: Last week Oakland moved the ball on Indy, in Indy, just fine. And that's OAKLAND. So whether Miami's first half last week was an aberration or not, whatever they figured out in the second half last week they could apply just fine vs. Indy this week if they wanted to. Sure enough they did just that.
Hartline didn't have another 26 catches today, he only had five, but he averaged 13+ a catch and Mike Wallace who complained about touches gets 9 for 115. So basically I saw what I wanted to see, not the whole picture.
Which is why this whole thread started off with the sentence it did.
The smart play here wasn't the side, it was the total. They pushed the final number, covered the early number, and left points on the field.
I like Indy for overs.
Speaking of that, the only reason I didn't play Buffalo over today based on last week's thread here was because they were playing Carolina. Sure enough, they had like 13 points at half combined and got that total in the second half. I wish they wouldn't have as I'd like to look at Buffalo overs and to go against them the rest of the month. But the win today helps out the side plays.
Carolina ... what a mess.
I didn't watch KC/Dallas, but it played out about as I think we all expected. I suppose my questions from this game would be all in the trenches. Did KC's DL play well again this week? Really, how did both OL/DLs look? Because I feel like we have reads on those teams otherwise.
I mean, I'm still a little squishy on Alex Smith, but for the most part I think we have an idea of them as a pretty middling team.
The Bears. Man, I'm so happy I stayed off this game. I wanted to play the over, but I was scared the Vikings might not show up. I wanted to play the Bears, but I was afraid if the Vikings did show up that meant AP and he might just keep it to a 3 point game. all by himself.
Because there's no way I saw Minny letting Ponder win or lose that game, not against the highlights the Bears put up last week on defense in the passing game.
Here's what I like here, I think this Bears team can score points and they look like a team that knows how to win a close game. And maybe that is because Culter doesn't really seem to care where the ball goes when he throws it, but I don't care. I like something about this Bears team.
I also feel like this may be a high point for the Vikings. Huge emotional division loss here. Tough to immediately bounce back from that especially when you're now 0-2 and 0-2 in the division. Really tough. Next week screams let-down spot for them in my book. Funny thing is, they come home for Cleveland and may well use the opportunity to stomp the shit out of the Browns.
But even if they go to 1-2 or 2-2 (Pittsburgh goes to Minny in Week 4), I think it might be false hope.
Some quick hits:
I said it last week and I'll say it again, Arizona's offense is going to score some points this year.
Has anyone checked on all those people jumping off the Lions' bandwagon? There have to be some sprained ankles there.
Great win by the Saints, but man, the amount of moosecockage Tampa backers have taken in two weeks is enough to build an entire episode of Sons of Anarchy around.
Worse 2-0 team, New England or New Orleans?
If you saw Schiano meltdown on the sidelines on his own players today, maybe like me you thought of the Deadspin article from earlier about how much of a nightmare that organization is right now.
Denver's good. The Giants will probably end up around .500, but I feel like there are holes all over that roster. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Atlanta at home is a recipe for betting a team total. Yes, I forgot to do just that.
The Rams score 24, but really, was the game that close? Related: I think the Rams suck.
Thursday night games are useless. I have it on good information that the NFL knows this but they don't care. Because all they care about is the money. Bad product on one night a week is less important to them than the value of reminding people about the brand heading into the weekend. Because Americans are vapid morons with zero long term memory that you absolutely have to spell things out for. Or hadn't you seen the Cadillac ad where the car literally blows the doors off other cars—GET IT? Ugh.
Sorry, where was I?
Teams I want to find ways to play on:
Teams whose totals I want to look at:
I'm sure there's more, there's always more. But for now it's your turn. Last week this thread was really awesome. MCG talked Titans who I never even covered here. Capaholic got in on the Chiefs, multiple people talked Cowboys. Jump rubbed one out in the corner. Seriously, other than that last part it was really great.
So get on in here and tell us things to help us make money.
Yesterday I'm walking through a sports book, I look up at the board and say to myself outloud, "Heh, it looks like they're begging for Indy money." And of course what do I do? Sweet Jesus. Some days I'm amazed I can pay a hooker to tie my shoes for me. Or something like that.
But it wasn't just the Indy line. There were a number of those -6ish lines that smelled from a mile away. Hello, Chicago. That Birds line wasn't a six, but for a team that was a big road dog to start the season to jump to -7 in a week? Fishy.
Which isn't to call you an idiot if you bet any of those games, hell I bet the Colts so it shows you how much I know.
But since I brought up the Birds, let's start with them.
I love the LMU Paul Wesphal offense. It speeds up the game and makes the game far more interesting to watch—at least for me. But today we saw the biggest flaw in it and it's not about the offense. It's that when you run 364 offensive plays a game, you're going to allow the other team to run 288. And if you give a decent QB with decent weapons all those chances, they're going to find holes in your defense.
And that's if your defense is good—and I don't think anybody's jumping to that conclusion about the Birds' defense—you're going to be fucked.
San Diego had so many turnovers in the red zone today that they could have—and maybe should have—won that game by two TDs.
To paraphrase someone from the in-game, how the hell do you bet an under in Birds games if that's going to happen?
But if you have any of the Eagles' skill players on your fantasy team. Congrats.
For San Diego, they say Malcolm Floyd is OK and that he flew back with the team. And thank God he's not dead. However, he has to be concussed. So there you lose a weapon. You also have a running back who apparently doesn't enjoy hanging onto the football. Maybe you back them against bad teams? I mean they seem like they know how to move the football. But it's hard to really say they inspire confidence as far as a team that could threaten the top tier of the NFL.
And since I bring up the top tier, let's talk about the Green Bay Packers. Correct me if I'm wrong, because all I really did with that game is check in on the highlights, but they did what you'd expect a top tier team to do against a lesser opponent today. They beat them like AG watching Oliva Munn on The Newsroom.
Because her dialogue is so shit-tastic that's all you can really do with her when she's on screen in that show, that's why. For the love of God, man, give me back the tits.
Sorry. Here's my larger question, what the hell are we to do about the Skins. Two weeks, two teams shredding them defensively?
Thoughts, suggestions, answers?
Also speaking of good teams, the Cleveland Football Browns.
All right, fine, they suck, but let's get them out of the way.
This team has no legit #1 WR. Their coaching, for whatever reason seems to think that Richardson running well early is the perfect excuse to spend the second half using your offense to exclusively to shitty WRs.
Here's the problem, when you stop running Trent Richardson, your offense sucks balls. So unless your goal is to produce TV programming that consists entirely of professional football players tea-bagging each other for hours on end, the only person you're making happy is Steed. And that's not good enough.
I don't really know how much to take from that game if you're looking at Baltimore, though. First, that 10 day thing. Seriously I feel like I rarely see teams play well off that. (He says as Denver puts up 54 points on the Giants on the road.) Second, though, there's the SB hangover which I think is a real thing, the changeover in talent, Flacco's wife having a baby the morning of the game, etc.
Bottom line on the Ravens, they beat a team they should beat. So long as Ray Rice's hip is OK, I think the read on them is right. Good team that's rebuilding. Play them against teams like Cleveland or Buffalo or Oakland, etc. Pick spots against them when they play top tier teams.
All right, let's talk about Indy.
Actually, let's not, let's talk about Miami.
So I played the Colts because I like their talent more and their coaching more—that plus the fact that they were at home made this play a no-brainer to me. Well, that and the fact that I watched both Indy and Miami last week. Here's why I was wrong on Indy today.
I saw an Indy team last week that scored pretty well and, for me, played well enough on offense that if they improved even a little I'd consider them a solid offensive team. I also saw a Miami team that really didn't impress me vs. Cleveland until the second half. But that I chalked mostly up to the fact that I think the Browns have a horrible secondary and that Miami figured out if they'd just pass protect they could move down the field in chunks on Cleveland pretty much at will.
Here's what I selectively ignored: Last week Oakland moved the ball on Indy, in Indy, just fine. And that's OAKLAND. So whether Miami's first half last week was an aberration or not, whatever they figured out in the second half last week they could apply just fine vs. Indy this week if they wanted to. Sure enough they did just that.
Hartline didn't have another 26 catches today, he only had five, but he averaged 13+ a catch and Mike Wallace who complained about touches gets 9 for 115. So basically I saw what I wanted to see, not the whole picture.
Which is why this whole thread started off with the sentence it did.
The smart play here wasn't the side, it was the total. They pushed the final number, covered the early number, and left points on the field.
I like Indy for overs.
Speaking of that, the only reason I didn't play Buffalo over today based on last week's thread here was because they were playing Carolina. Sure enough, they had like 13 points at half combined and got that total in the second half. I wish they wouldn't have as I'd like to look at Buffalo overs and to go against them the rest of the month. But the win today helps out the side plays.
Carolina ... what a mess.
I didn't watch KC/Dallas, but it played out about as I think we all expected. I suppose my questions from this game would be all in the trenches. Did KC's DL play well again this week? Really, how did both OL/DLs look? Because I feel like we have reads on those teams otherwise.
I mean, I'm still a little squishy on Alex Smith, but for the most part I think we have an idea of them as a pretty middling team.
The Bears. Man, I'm so happy I stayed off this game. I wanted to play the over, but I was scared the Vikings might not show up. I wanted to play the Bears, but I was afraid if the Vikings did show up that meant AP and he might just keep it to a 3 point game. all by himself.
Because there's no way I saw Minny letting Ponder win or lose that game, not against the highlights the Bears put up last week on defense in the passing game.
Here's what I like here, I think this Bears team can score points and they look like a team that knows how to win a close game. And maybe that is because Culter doesn't really seem to care where the ball goes when he throws it, but I don't care. I like something about this Bears team.
I also feel like this may be a high point for the Vikings. Huge emotional division loss here. Tough to immediately bounce back from that especially when you're now 0-2 and 0-2 in the division. Really tough. Next week screams let-down spot for them in my book. Funny thing is, they come home for Cleveland and may well use the opportunity to stomp the shit out of the Browns.
But even if they go to 1-2 or 2-2 (Pittsburgh goes to Minny in Week 4), I think it might be false hope.
Some quick hits:
I said it last week and I'll say it again, Arizona's offense is going to score some points this year.
Has anyone checked on all those people jumping off the Lions' bandwagon? There have to be some sprained ankles there.
Great win by the Saints, but man, the amount of moosecockage Tampa backers have taken in two weeks is enough to build an entire episode of Sons of Anarchy around.
Worse 2-0 team, New England or New Orleans?
If you saw Schiano meltdown on the sidelines on his own players today, maybe like me you thought of the Deadspin article from earlier about how much of a nightmare that organization is right now.
Denver's good. The Giants will probably end up around .500, but I feel like there are holes all over that roster. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Atlanta at home is a recipe for betting a team total. Yes, I forgot to do just that.
The Rams score 24, but really, was the game that close? Related: I think the Rams suck.
Thursday night games are useless. I have it on good information that the NFL knows this but they don't care. Because all they care about is the money. Bad product on one night a week is less important to them than the value of reminding people about the brand heading into the weekend. Because Americans are vapid morons with zero long term memory that you absolutely have to spell things out for. Or hadn't you seen the Cadillac ad where the car literally blows the doors off other cars—GET IT? Ugh.
Sorry, where was I?
Teams I want to find ways to play on:
- GB
- SF
- Atlanta at home
- Denver at home
- Chicago at home
Teams whose totals I want to look at:
- Detroit
- Indy
- Philly
- Atlanta at home
- Green Bay
I'm sure there's more, there's always more. But for now it's your turn. Last week this thread was really awesome. MCG talked Titans who I never even covered here. Capaholic got in on the Chiefs, multiple people talked Cowboys. Jump rubbed one out in the corner. Seriously, other than that last part it was really great.
So get on in here and tell us things to help us make money.
