So, after one quarter of the season, what have we learned so far?
- Thread starter B.A.R.
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D-Woww
Old Man Dan
I actually disagree. Loved the call. Fuck a tie. He knows Indy is most likely not a playoff team and they have the Pats in Foxborough in 4 days, so that is a L, so if the team wanted any chance of being in a decent enough position to make anything resembling a run this year, they needed that win, not a tie. this is one of those scenarios where if they got the first down and ended up winning the game everyone would be talking about how ballsy in a good way he is and how that is the new NFL.
i liked it.
Risk/reward...if you get it you still aren't in FG range (and awful job focusing only on one receiver BTW)...if you miss it your defense that has already given up 34 cannot give up 8 yards or the other team is in field goal range.
I will fight your point in that the loss to a division opponent is exponentially WORSE than the tie. You cannot hand teams a 95% win rate based on whether you cannot convert a 4th and 4 in any spot, in any game.
This may be the worst coaching decision I've ever seen. I cannot even comprehend, Dan, how you can defend this one. If your argument is that a tie and a loss are the same thing, then we have nothing to discuss, because I just feel that is 100% wrong on every level.
here is something I learned (actually confirmed) from yesterday. If you have an NFL coach that doesn't have the IQ equivalency level of a rock, you AUTOMATICALLY have to factor that into your handicapping. Honestly, I'm at the point where I am going to make a Power Rankings chart for NFL head coaches based on some of these intangibles.
McVay vs. an average head coach is probably a 4-5 point advantage. Put him against a dumbfuck like Wilkes (who saved all 3 TO in both halves for whatever reason), and it's more like an 8 to 10 point advantage.
If you're not taking coaching into your capping, then you're making a major mistake.
McCarthy and Tomlin are guys who make HORRENDOUS in game decisions and get away with it because they have star QB. Look no further than Jeff Fisher to Sean McVay to see how important coaching is. Look at Nagy in Chicago and a team that easily could be 4-0 right now.
The scope of every rule is centered around the offense...if you're out there trying to run an offense from the Red Grange era, you're going to get squashed like a bug on a windshield. See my shitbag New York Jets as an example. Or the hapless New York Giants as another example. No certifiable game plan whatsoever on offense. No ability to make adjustments whatsoever in game or at halftime.
This league is just a video game at this point. There are very few outliers right now. It's either score and pray you can outscore your opponent.
Team like the Ravens are so far oppo what the league is right now with all of their 3 TE sets and such...plus their secondary which gets a huge piece back. I am going to see what kind of futures I can get on them to win the AFC, because they're winning that division and the way they play aren't going to be out of any game this season barring colossal injuries on D.
McVay vs. an average head coach is probably a 4-5 point advantage. Put him against a dumbfuck like Wilkes (who saved all 3 TO in both halves for whatever reason), and it's more like an 8 to 10 point advantage.
If you're not taking coaching into your capping, then you're making a major mistake.
McCarthy and Tomlin are guys who make HORRENDOUS in game decisions and get away with it because they have star QB. Look no further than Jeff Fisher to Sean McVay to see how important coaching is. Look at Nagy in Chicago and a team that easily could be 4-0 right now.
The scope of every rule is centered around the offense...if you're out there trying to run an offense from the Red Grange era, you're going to get squashed like a bug on a windshield. See my shitbag New York Jets as an example. Or the hapless New York Giants as another example. No certifiable game plan whatsoever on offense. No ability to make adjustments whatsoever in game or at halftime.
This league is just a video game at this point. There are very few outliers right now. It's either score and pray you can outscore your opponent.
Team like the Ravens are so far oppo what the league is right now with all of their 3 TE sets and such...plus their secondary which gets a huge piece back. I am going to see what kind of futures I can get on them to win the AFC, because they're winning that division and the way they play aren't going to be out of any game this season barring colossal injuries on D.
And a tie is considered half of a win, half of a loss. At least how they calculate winning percentages. How can not caring to at least accept half of a win, vs. a 95% sure loss be a smart decision? I get your point, Dan, in that coaches don't have the understanding of what a tie is, but JFC, knowing you're going to lose based on one play is sheer insanity to me.
The way to play this league (BEST way, i should say) is to play team totals. Team total overs and/or wait until half time for a better feel of game flow and then play 2nd half team total overs. Huge value because of 1. the way the rules are in this league 2. how inept some of the defenses are in this league 3. how teams LOVE prevent defenses or going tempo when the score gets too one-sided.
Sides to me seem like such a crap shoot so often....look at the number of backdoor overs in games yesterday alone?
Philly/Tenny Jets/Jags (with Marrone going for a 4th down at the 1 and then going for 2 up 19)...this shit is crazy.
oh, and just as a note....blindly play the 2H over in any Raiders game, period. Oldest team in the league, QB who makes way too many mistakes and can always dump off to TE or look to a guy who has #1 WR ability....gold mine in the making there, kids.
Sides to me seem like such a crap shoot so often....look at the number of backdoor overs in games yesterday alone?
Philly/Tenny Jets/Jags (with Marrone going for a 4th down at the 1 and then going for 2 up 19)...this shit is crazy.
oh, and just as a note....blindly play the 2H over in any Raiders game, period. Oldest team in the league, QB who makes way too many mistakes and can always dump off to TE or look to a guy who has #1 WR ability....gold mine in the making there, kids.
deaconbreeze
Active Member
That the Giants are never going to score 30 pts despite their “weapons”.
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Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
What are you basing the 95% win rate on?
I'm basing it on the combination of the following things (assuming you don't convert 4th and 4 at your own 43):
1. The other team essentially needs not even 10 yards for field goal range to beat you.
2. 24 seconds is an eternity for a team that can go over the middle of the field or scramble to then get a spike and FG attempt on a dome field/surface with no elements.
3. The Colts D is talentless and had already given up 34 points, now you're leaving them with their back as far against the wall as possible.
4. The Texans kicker even if you only gain 6 yards, which would make it a 54-yarder, has a season long FG of 54 yards.
Between the combination of those things, I think 95% is a fair percentage. And that's not even assuming the possibility of Indy getting a penalty, of which they had 10 yesterday. 95% might be high, but based on that field position, the defense, and the circumstances, I don't think its all that far off.
Now, Cog...there you go using common sense...doesn't everybody realize that the NFL owners don't use that?
They cut short the OT by a third of what it once was to prevent injuries, all of this came during the big hullabaloo over the concussions. So by shortening OT, you eliminate the potential for more concussions...and why is that important (logical)...
Well at the time, the NFL was in the midst of a billion dollar lawsuit.
The NFL and its owners don't give a fuck about ANYTHING but the almighty dollar.
They don't care about common sense, they don't care about the quality of the game, they (honestly) don't care about the health of their players as the owners consider them pawns to make them richer...if they cared so much, why wouldn't they give them all guaranteed contracts and health insurance for life?
The NFL is a product that has slipped drastically due to sub-par management. The owners don't give a flying fuck about their partners (the players) and are so arrogant AND ignorant, led by a buffoon they pay $40 million per year to fall on the sword for them, that they ignore anything but what makes them all richer.
if this league had better direction by the owners of these teams, it would be unstoppable. But they're just 32 greedy old fucks that don't give a shit about anything other than getting richer and having such a wanted product, they couldn't drive it into the ground if they try (and they sure try with how poorly they run the league).
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
With all due respect, the 95% is nowhere close to accurate. Trying to find what the success rate of a 37 yard kick is, but its certainly below 95%. The Texans kicker, FWIW, is a 81% kicker and only 91% on extra points (33 yards).
The Colts had the ball with 4th and 4. While, a non conversion is a rough blow, they still had a better than average chance of ending with a tie vs. a loss. A punt there almost certainly ends in a tie. A 4th down conversion and you have a good chance of having a last second win or tie field goal opportunity. (by the same token, the Colts were moving the ball vs. the Texans defense). I'm not sure the implied conversion rate, but I would guess close to 50%.
A 50 field goal is probably 50% for that kicker (4-7 for career). Each yard they get obviously increases those odds.
A number of things could have happened, the Colts could have converted. The Texans could have been stopped. The Texans could have turned the ball over. The Texans could have scored.
Overall, the odds probably slightly favor the punt. But, I wanted to point out that even after assuming a falled conversion, the odds of the Texans winning is nowhere near 95%. The Texans not only have to get some yards, and spike ball, but also convert a field goal. Whether it was the right call or not, I liked it. Coaches in the NFL are too often scared to lose their jobs and scared to make the aggressive call. The one call won over the locker room even with a loss. Obviously, 4th and long would have been an easy choice, but I can't imagine walking back into the locker room after playing for a tie.
Unfortunately, yes.
Interesting argument and I am probably using some of my personal assumptions in there, but it's a good debate. Let me start by saying this.
I think the Colts may be the worst team in the league in regard to talent in the NFL. To put that type of pressure on their defense is insane to me. Luck being there is the single reason this reason has even been competitive when he's played the last 5 years. He's by far the most important player on their team and maybe a top 5 important player to their team in this league. But you've got a shaky O Line...nobody to run the ball consistently, you've got no WR worth a damn on the field (I believe Hilton left the game in the 4th), so you're already putting Luck behind the 8-ball. He has no Hilton, or no Doyle. Normally, I believe that stat on converting a 4th down is 46% (if not a goal to go situation), but factoring in the total lack of weapons and the almost absolute possibility you're not running the ball there, I think that percentage is much lower.
It is careless for a head coach not to consider his risk-of-ruin percentage if his plan fails, based on the game situation.
I do agree with you wholeheartedly though that NFL head coaches are not aggressive enough...punting on 4th and a half yard (based on field position) can be totally crazy.
But Reich has an offense with one player, a defense who is gassed and has zero playmakers and oh by the way, Watson is a scrambling QB who can run and Hopkins is a top 10 WR in the game.....
I'm all for playing to win, instead of playing not-to-lose. But when playing to win (in this case) give you an extremely high percentage for a loss, then it's just reckless.
Let's for argument's sake say that the non-conversion gives Houston a 75% to win instead of 95%...is it worth it to go for it under those percentages?
I like debates like this as I want to see the argument for the other side...and I'll say this...if you have Doyle and Hilton on the field, I hate this decision by Reich way, way less.
Dollaz
Egor Demin Watch Club Member
I would guess in reality, the non conversion gives the Texans less than 75% chance of winning. I would love to see someone do the analysis. At some point, its obviously not worth the 4th down attempt.....but 4 is still manageable, imo.
FWIW, i am the biggest Luck hater there is. I think he's vastly overrated. But, I think Grant is a good possession WR and Ebron is a weapon at TE.
FWIW, i am the biggest Luck hater there is. I think he's vastly overrated. But, I think Grant is a good possession WR and Ebron is a weapon at TE.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Call I like
I actually think browns should have gone for it on 4th and inchss with 1 min left up 8 vs raiders as 2ell
Issue is the play call
When teams are in a position like that, the play call has to be the best one in the book, that call was what you do on 3rd down in the 4th quarter and youre doen 20
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Just look at vrabel today, hes getting praised and they could have kicked a fg plenty of times yesterday
No one calling him an idiot like reich
No one calling him an idiot like reich
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
I had some overs miss and some unders get blown out, but that is the perception I have also.
I haven't researched it but will before next week.
There's got be a winning percentage on overs, just from the stupid flags alone.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Interesting with earl Thomas, not to get into the stuff today about the last year contract, hold out stuff. I think people are crazy if they are so stuck in either side.
But it sounds like he was likely getting dealt this week, chiefs and falcons mentioned as most likely, so not only does that kill the hawks, but those 2 as well
But it sounds like he was likely getting dealt this week, chiefs and falcons mentioned as most likely, so not only does that kill the hawks, but those 2 as well
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Also if think the clay matthews roughing the passer flags were garbage
braves
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Giants signed a wide receiver to the highest contract ever and drafted a RB , brilliant long term moves by them
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Your boy hurst is making big contributions last few
D line struggling this year but hurst, key, and baby bosa gonna be stout next year
Lions will fight you to the #1 pick for Bosa! :boxing:
guaranteeed
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No chsnce, you guys winning 9
Not with that schedule.
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You need to believe!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I agree. I thought Texans opting for a fg to tie it with less than 2 minutes left was pathetic and gutless. I mean you were 0-3 for Christ sakes and you opt to play for a tie that gets you to 0-3-1!! Why?? They just got incredibly lucky/fortunate Indy gave them the win as they were certainly playing for the tie like a bunch of cowards.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’d agree w you if we were talking about teams that had a good record and sure then tie be much better than a loss. For life of me can’t figure out if you got 0 or 1 win you gonna play for a tie? All that said pretty sure I’d have to be to midfield at least to go for it there. I honestly thought Texans should have treated their red zone trip as 4 down territory instead of throwing one pass to endzone on 3rd down then settling for fg on 4th and goal from the 10, they were absolutely playing for the tie as it would have been if Indy punted. It nauseating to me watching a winless team play for a tie.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
You saying teams only convert 4th and 4 5% of the time? Not like they had a insurmountable amount of yards to gain there. Obviously if it was 4th and long I’d say you got to punt. As you were just saying tho w all the rules geared to the offense and these passing attacks reassembling video games I feel like getting 4 yards or a flag for a 1st down has to be at least a 50-50 proposition at worst doesn’t it?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’d say it a combination of Eli and the oline. Eli so freakin immobile that anytime he even sees a pass rusher it like he sacked already. Obviously the oline has issues but Eli compounds those issue drastically, lot of these guys w decent mobility could perform behind that line imo.
LockthisMonster
Pretty much a regular
We have learned its a MENOPAUSE league. But that's every year right? Fuck em anyway, right?.if you are living what u see go oppo
gsro
Give me the NHL, or give me death
Reminded me of Tony Romo trying to sell that they got Saquon to get third and manageable aka 3 and 7 at the 2 spot lol
gsro
Give me the NHL, or give me death
When KC faces a complete team, I think they are going to hit some reality. The adversity will be good for them, although that might not be until the Rams. Only other teams between then and now might be Jacksonville( don’t buy the offense) and then the Pats but that depends on bill and the boys and how they progressed from their September mini camp
2daBank
Voice of Reason
That the thing about kc, a team like jags who offense you don’t trust should be able to score plenty vs kc. Donks really let them off hook imo by not sticking w a run game that was gashing them to tune of over 6 ypc. Yet they let Keenam throw what 35-36 passes?!! If Donks would have kept him around 20-25 passes and ran it 10-15 more times they win that game. Don’t think jags will make same mistake, and of course jags secondary 10x better than Donks.
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Id trade or release
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Every time he gets a carry im left thinking “damn that kid could be a legit top running back” then of course lions go 10 minutes without getting him another touch! Lol
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Amazing how quickly James Conner became "just a guy" in Pittsburgh once Bell said when he would return.
I'd like to know how Miami was 3-0 heading into last week. They ran 45 plays on offense in a league where the average is 64. BUT, they ran 39 the week before! 58 in Weeks 1 and 2. So at their best they're only running 90% of the plays of an average team,
Must be a highly efficient offense, right? No. Average yards per play is 5.7, a dead middle 16th in the league.
OK, so the defense must be stout. Wrong. Average yards per play allowed is 5.7. again a dead middle 17th.
Turnover margin? Well, that is probably it, they're top 5.
Regardless, they are fantasy poison at the moment.
These teams are averaging under 40 total points in their games:
Buffalo (39)
Tennessee (37)
Jacksonville (36)
Washington (36)
Dallas (36)
Arizona (33)
These teams are averaging over 55 total points in their games:
Cincinnati (60)
Kansas City (65)
New Orleans (64)
Tampa Bay (63)
Atlanta (59)
LA Chargers (58)
Oakland (55)
Close is San Fran (54.5) and Pittsburgh (54.5)
I'd like to know how Miami was 3-0 heading into last week. They ran 45 plays on offense in a league where the average is 64. BUT, they ran 39 the week before! 58 in Weeks 1 and 2. So at their best they're only running 90% of the plays of an average team,
Must be a highly efficient offense, right? No. Average yards per play is 5.7, a dead middle 16th in the league.
OK, so the defense must be stout. Wrong. Average yards per play allowed is 5.7. again a dead middle 17th.
Turnover margin? Well, that is probably it, they're top 5.
Regardless, they are fantasy poison at the moment.
These teams are averaging under 40 total points in their games:
Buffalo (39)
Tennessee (37)
Jacksonville (36)
Washington (36)
Dallas (36)
Arizona (33)
These teams are averaging over 55 total points in their games:
Cincinnati (60)
Kansas City (65)
New Orleans (64)
Tampa Bay (63)
Atlanta (59)
LA Chargers (58)
Oakland (55)
Close is San Fran (54.5) and Pittsburgh (54.5)
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