smo1a Week 5 CFB plays


Pretty much a regular
YTD: 29-13-2 +1512 (69%)
Last Week: 9-5 +354

Not a terrible week 4, but one that had more promise ruined by some crazy plays and kickers missing extra points (Bama and ND). I was very surprised by West Virginia and will do a little more homework this week. Overall, a nice week, especially on my 1st Half plays.

I will add to this post as I finalize and add plays and try to add some comments this time as time permits.

Onto Week 5's picks:

@ UCF +7 -122 (bought 1)

@ TCU -6 -105

@ USF +4 -107

@ MEMPHIS +14 -123 (bought .5)
PURDUE +17 -130 (bought .5)
@FLA -7 1st Half -105
@ TEXAS -45 -105
@ IOWA ST. -15.5 -105
TEMPLE over 3.5 (Team Total) -108
MICHIGAN -6.5 -117 (bought .5)
@ HAWAII -28 -105

This may do it for this week. I feel pretty good about this card. Good luck to all this weekend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Michigan looks like an excellent pick...probably be a 7 or 8 by gametime
BYU @ TCU -6 -105

Well, looks like I was on the wrong side of this line movement as the side is now only -4.5. Sometimes the line will move for you, sometimes it won’t. With the public all over the Frogs, it looks like on going against the smart money play here as the line had started at Pinny at -7. Question is, will it matter? I still feel comfortable with the Frogs at home with a stout D. After holding the potentially potent Texas Tech attack without a TD and a possible shut out, that is what really opened my eyes to this TCU team. Frogs QB Jeff Ballard has been solid in leading his team to an undefeated record since coming off the bench last year against BYU and leading an impressive comeback win. While injuries with the rushing attack have limited this offense, I don’t expect to see the shoot out from last year. John Beck is back this week for BYU, but they will have a very short week (3 days of practice) to prepare for a well rested TCU team that had a bye week to prepare for BYU. I know Gary Patterson will have this BCS Buster team prepared and not looking ahead to Utah the following week. Again, not a high scoring affair here, but I do see a cover for TCU. Perhaps a 24-7 victory for TCU is in line here. I am considering a play on the under (47) as well.

I bought .5 on Purdue to get the number to a more comfortable -17. Purdue comes in with the usual potent spread offense from Joe Tiller in the rivalry that saw the resurgent Irish destroy the Boilermakers in West Lafayette last year. I think this game should be an absolute shoot out with the winner being the last team to score. The Irish D has not shown much since the Penn St. game and were very fortunate to get past a typically self destructing Spartan team last week. Last year, ND attacked the Purdue secondary with a short passing game that relied on the receivers making plays after the catch. Countless times the Boilermakers secondary played 10-15 yards off the Irish receivers and were constantly burned with short passes. Hopefully, the defense can adjust this year to make Brady Quinn work a little harder for his yards. Purdue has played a pretty lame non-conference schedule, but did look pretty good in a win against Minny last week. With a little revenge factor for Purdue and a possible let down after the emotional comeback against Sparty last week, I think the Boilermakers should keep this one within 14 points in South Bend.

The revenge tour continues for the Wolverines as they look to avenge last years home loss to the Gophers. If the Notre Dame game is any indication, the Wolverines should be motivated as they look to a National Championship contending showdown with tOSU. Only problem in my opinion (plenty of UM backers in this forum) is how Lloyd Carr prepares his team for this one. I’m not a huge Big 10 follower, and if anything, I’m always amazed at how these teams can beat up on each other. However, given the line I got at -6.5 (bought down from -7) and now sitting at -9.5 to -10, I think the combination of Henne, Hart, Breaston, and Manningham should have no problem putting up points and controlling the flow of the game. Michigan’s rush defense has been stout and if Minny is going to have a chance, they will have to beat them with Bryan Cupito’s passing, and that will not happen. Michigan should roll by at least 2 or 3 TD’s this week.

I absolutely love this game for the Tigers. Memphis has always given the Vols a good game. 3 of the last 4 games in this series have gone down to the final minutes since 1999 (save for the game in 2001) with Tennessee escaping by a combined 7 points in those three games. Last year, WITHOUT DeAngelo Williams playing for the Tigers, they almost pulled off the upset in Knoxville, falling short 20-16. I grew up in Memphis as a kid and lived there from 2002 until the end of last year. I have followed this tiger team closely and know how important this game is to the kids from Memphis. While the loss of Williams has hurt, the Tigers have a much better QB this year with transfer Martin Hankins and Joe Doss has done a nice job at RB. The Tigers spread offense is showing a lot better balance this year with the passing game and a good corps of receivers. Hopefully Hankins implosion at ECU will not carry forward to this contest. I expect to see him rebound here. The biggest question will be how the D responds after Joe Lee Dunn was canned. I personally feel it was a good move and should help in the long run – just not too sure what will happen here this week. The Tigers have had 2 weeks to prepare for this game and whatever the magical mystique is that allows them to compete with UT should favor Memphis. A lot of these kids from both schools competed with each other in high school and that has helped the Tigers elevate their game in previous contests. As for home field, there are so many Vol fans in Memphis that it’s more of a Neutral site atmosphere. Memphis outclassed Peyton’s team in a stunner in ’96 and have a shot to do it again Saturday. Tennessee was very impressive against Cal, but not so much against Air Force. Memphis destroyed Marshall last year, so UT’s win last week is not much of a barometer for me. On paper, UT should blow Memphis out, but we are not playing on paper. I expect a close game similar to last years game.
KKruissel74 said:
Michigan looks like an excellent pick...probably be a 7 or 8 by gametime

At -9.5 now! Wonder if it moves any higher as the week progresses?

Claassen ratings show Florida as a 18 point fav over Bama. I don't make picks on power ratings, but I do consider them. I think Florida extracts a little revenge after the beat down suffered last year. Bama QB John Parker Wilson will be facing a Gator D that he has never seen the likes of. I expect Shula to be pretty conservative so as not to put his 1st yr QB in a tough situation. Kenneth Darby is averaging less than 3 YPR and and the Gator D is only allowing 42 YPG rushing. If Bama can't get the ground game going (which they won't), Bama is going to be forced to go to the air which is bound to lead to some turnovers. I know Wilson has been consistent with a good TD/INT ratio, but that should change this week. With another year in Meyers system, Chris Leak has come into his own and is showing the leadership qualities and good decision making skills necessary to move this offense. bama's D has been solid, yet they are still inexperienced in the back 7. You know the Swamp is gonna be rockin and if Florida can jump on the Tide early, it could be a blow out. If there is a prat fall, it would be LSU looming on the horizon for Florida, but remembering LY should solve that problem. I'll take the safe play here figuring the Gators and the crowd jump early out of the gate and easily cover the 7 points in the 1st half.
SOUTHERN MISS @ UCF +7 -122 (Bought 1 point)

This play is a toss up in my opinion. I had no intention of playing it, but after the recent line moves - some time you just gotta say "What the fuck." Good info in Big Al's thread on this game. Here are my thoughts after looking at the thread and looking at this game....

"Gotta say after reading this discussion and seeing the line shoot to 6 and 6.5, UCF is looking very attractive. I saw them some last year and was especially impressed with the performance against Memphis. Seeing that most of LY's team is still intact, it's hard to believe they have played so bad this year. I do not read too much into the NCST game for SOMISS, as the NCST is losing control with Chuckie at the helm. If I can buy this up to 7 with reasonable vig, may be a play afterall."

What happened with TCU isnt the wrong side of move really. I think alot people missed that John Beck a out @ QB last week for BYU because the backup QB is named Beck as well. So John Beck is returning this week which was unexpected so the line was adjusted, it was nt a move
SportsNut said:

What happened with TCU isnt the wrong side of move really. I think alot people missed that John Beck a out @ QB last week for BYU because the backup QB is named Beck as well. So John Beck is returning this week which was unexpected so the line was adjusted, it was nt a move

I figured everyone knew JOHN Beck was playing anyway - hence the line move. I really don't think it matters as TCU should be able to handle BYU with relative ease. I would be very suprised if TCU does not win this one by at least 10. Good luck SportsNut and thanks for the discussion on the SoMiss game last night. Was a nice winner for me and UCF should have won SU. Their D really showed up last night.
I am debating this play on Auburn as well. I think that ~uburn needs to make a statement with this game Thursday. If this game were not on the road, I would be comfortable playing Auburn up to -10 in the 1st half. I really don't expect to see much offense from the Cocks against this Tiger D, and -7 is very doable. I need to take a closer look at the USC defense. South Carolina will be up for the challenge and a tight low scoring 1st half would be no surprise. A play on the whole game may be the better way to go. Right now I really like my card as it stands. I am leaning toward Auburn and South Florida as additional games and hope to make a decision shortly.

I'd love to hear your thoughts Stacks.
usf is garbage just like ucf even though they showed up last night and got unlucky.i think i will just stay with my auburn-13 bet for tomorrow
im loooking at that TCU under. You think you will pull the trigger on it? ( keep looking at the 101 total they put up last season)
RSMS9999 said:
im loooking at that TCU under. You think you will pull the trigger on it? ( keep looking at the 101 total they put up last season)

I keep looking at the total from the TCU - Texas Tech game ;-) The only thing that ever scares me about an UNDER is the potential for OT. I don't think it would happen tonight, but if it did, the UNDER would be toast. So in answer to your question, I think TCU -6 (at least where I locked in) is the best play tonight and I'll lay off the total. If you are playing it, I would not consider the 101 from LY's contest and lean on the under (mostly because of the TCU D). Good luck whatever you decide!

This is NOT a popular pick, but I have been looking at this game all week and debating in my head if it made sense to side with the Bulls over a very impressive RU team. On paper AND the field, I think Rutgers is the better team, but I think we could be looking at a huge upset. I see a possible let down after the 1st Top 25 Ranking in years. Could easily be one of those "out as fast as you got in" deals. I'm glad to see the Knights finally get some in state talent and building a program, but this could be a huge let down. After having followed the University of Memphis for years, I see a lot of parallels with this RU team. Both squads have been habitual bottom dwellers and are now starting to see some success. Memphis earned it's first top 25 ranking 2 years ago in Danny Wimprine's senior season. Full of confidence, they went to Arkansas State as a 25 point fav and barely escaped with a come from behind win and then lost as a fav on the road at UAB and never had a shot at the top 25 again. Again, I can not legitimately argure that USF is the better team here, I just have a gut feeling that RU is in a HUGE let down spot Friday night.

Temple SUCKS plain and simple and Vandy will crush them in Nashville Saturday night. However, I think the Owls manage a fluke TD or a couple of FG's off special teams or a Vandy turnover. I think this is a solid play as I always look for an OVER for any team (Temple included) that is less than 6 points.
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Yanks26Sox6 said:
card looks good, smo1a

BOL this weekend. gonna take another look at that memphis game.

Thanks Yanks! Lets all make some cash this weekend!

Texas should be able to be up at least 35-0 at the half and with 2nd & 3rd teamers playing the 2nd half, manage to put this one away with ease. BTW, I got this line at Pinny in the "added games" section.

Also in the "added games" section at Pinny. If Illinois could beat Eastern Illinois 42-17, I think the Rainbow Warriors can cover a 28 point spread at home.

Playing this off the advice of SoonerBS. I know nothing about Northern Iowa, hopefully they don't have a great pass Defense ;-)

This is the last play - I really mean it!