smo1a Week 13 CFB

[smo1a]

YTD: 71-49-5 +3859 59%
WEEK 12: 8-2 +1545

Last week was a nice rebound from a horrible week 11 as I went 8-2 and cleared over 15 units. Highlights from last week was WVU blowing away the team total of 32.5 as this was my largest play last week at 5 units. Had a nice spread and ML win with NIU to close out weekday play and finally a solid Saturday going 5-1 and almost clearing 10 units for the day. For the year, I am up 38.5 units and I'm hoping to get to 50 units and over 60% before the bowl games start. I still have a lot of home work to do for the week 13 card.


All plays will be posted in this thread as they are added. I will provide write ups as time permits. All plays are for 1 unit unless specified...

11/21

BGSU +6.5 -105 2 UNITS

11/23

@ MIAMI +3.5 -102 3 UNITS

11/24

@ TEXAS -12.5 -111 3 UNITS
@ ARKANSAS -1 +104 2 UNITS
@ ARKANSAS +.5 2ND HALF -112 3 UNITS

11/25

SO FLORIDA +21 -102 2 UNITS
FLORIDA -7.5 -105 2 UNITS
MIZZOU -7 -101 2 UNITS
KENTUCKY +21 -108 2 UNITS
NEW MEXICO ST -6.5 -107 5 UNITS
MISS ST +3 -107 3 UNITS
OKLAHOMA ML -219
BOISE ST -2.5 -110 2 UNITS
NOTRE DAME +8 +102 5 UNITS

Best of luck to everyone this Turkey Day Week.

:smiley_acbe:

 

[E.T.G.]

LOVE IT!!!!

Def one of the games I am on!

GL bro!

 

[smo1a]

Opening with a 5 unit play on NMSU -6.5 -107. I have been eyeing this one since Utah St. got blasted at home by visiting Hawaii 63-10. Utah St sports one of the worst pass defense teams in the nation. In Utah State's last 4 games, the D has given up 48, 63, 42, and 49 points respectively. NMSU throws the ball about 70% of the time and Coach Hal will be salivating coming into this game. Both teams are having a piss poor season, which is why I believe the line is currently where it is. Power Ratings are showing NMSU as a 15+ point fav in this battle and I feel that is more in line than what we have right now. For NMSU, their defense is not anything to write home about as well, however, they get to face one of the worst offensive teams in the nation averaging a mere 10 points per game. I expect a better performance from Utah St offensively, but not enough firepower to keep up with the better Aggie squad from New Mexico. NMSU will extract some revenge from 2 straight losses to Utah St winning 43-21.

 

[smo1a]

Tonights contest between BGSU and Toledo features one of the better rushing attacks in BGSU going against a very marginal rush defense from Toledo. Both teams have had better days as they both come in playing for pride as they are only 4-7 on the year. The days of Omar are long gone for the Falcons in this rebuilding year as they come in having lost 4 straight games. As far as I see it, both teams are pretty evenly matched with defenses that have given up a lot of points (both average about 28 pg), however I would give the offensive edge to BGSU because they are so good with the run and should be able to take advantage of Toledo's defense. Although BGSU's pass offense is nothing to write home about, they should have some good opportunities as long as the run sets up short yardage 2nd & 3rd down situations. The Falcon D has been a little more opportunistic in the Turnover department living on the plus side of 2 whereas Toledo is -4 on the year.

I feel this game will stay close throughout with a possible BGSU SU win. Looking for a score in the neighborhood of 24-21 BGSU over Toledo. The key advantage will lie with the Falcons rushing O vs the Rockets rushing D. Otherwise, they are pretty evenly matched.

My play is BGSU +6.5 -105 FOR 2 UNITS

 

[smo1a]

Little time for write ups, but added the following plays...

MIAMI, FL +3.5 -102 3 UNITS

On paper, the "other" Catholics should easily handle the Convicts. However, I am going on gut instincts and think the U pulls one out for Coker as it seems this could be the end. Maimi need this for a bowl, so I think the D steps up and the Hurricanes manage enough to get the win at the Orange Bowl. Even though last weeks Thursday home dog did not cover, I still can't bring myself to go against a Thursday home dog. Canes take it in a physical low scoring affair.

TEXAS -12.5 -111 3 UNITS

McCoy and Blalock slated to play, enough for me. Texas has dominated this rivalry and after the K-State shocker, they will be ready and not look past the Aggies. Sneed has had more reps in practice, so if necessary, he should be much more ready that 2 weeks ago. Horns roll in an ass whooping.

ARKANSAS -1 +104

Most people think LSU rolls here. I have always been a fan of Houston Nutt, and when it looks like the impossible, he manages to come up with the wackiest backyard plays you can imagine and get his teams that seem on the short end of the talent stick to play out of their minds. Arkie has not had this success in years and they can taste a BCS bowl. Hard to go against a hot team and I won't do it. Arkansas pulls out a close one.


Still evaluating Saturdays games, but I have a few leans...

Fla St +9.5 to +10
Okie St +6
Da 'Ville -11
ND +7.5

After listening to Charlie Weiss on ESPN discussing one loss teams that deserve to play OSU for the title, he got my attention by saying that for ND to have any remote chance, they would not only need to beat USC, but beat them "SOUNDLY." I have been leaning to USC all week, but after hearing the Fat Man speak, I'm now leaning to the Irish. Last year in South Bend, no one thought the Irish would actually have a shot, but they played their best game in quite a few years. Although they have underachieved most of this season (in comparison to last), I think USC is very beatable this year. Still weighing this game, but fairly certain I'll pull the trigger soon.

 

[HUNT]

great writeups smo1a..I agree on Arky as well, have a great weekend.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

nice hit today on miami, bro.
opposite tomorrow, so good health on friday.

 

[smo1a]

Added Arkie -.5 2nd half for 3 units

 

[smo1a]

Correction, ARKIE +.5 2H

 

[Aztec4Life]

GL smo1a. :cheers:

 

[smo1a]

Had a pretty awful Friday slate, so hopefully I can make up for it today....

Adding:

SO FLORIDA +21 -102 2 UNITS
FLORIDA -7.5 -105 2 UNITS
MIZZOU -7 -101 2 UNITS
KENTUCKY +21 -108 2 UNITS
MISS ST +3 -107 3 UNITS
BOISE ST -2.5 -110 2 UNITS
NOTRE DAME +8 +102 5 UNITS

 

[smo1a]

Added OU MONEYLINE -219 for a unit. Stupid bet because I hope to lose it so TEXAS gets in the Big XII championship game.