smo1a CFB BOWL SEASON 2006-2007




smo1a

smo1a

Pretty much a regular
CFB REGULAR SEASON YTD: 82-59-6 +3804

CFB BOWLS YTD: 15-17 -1259

It has taken every ounce of disicipline not to have placed any wager on the bowl games until now. My plan is to follow news stories, injuries/recoveries, and dig into strength of schedule, common opponets, recent play, et all. I will more than likely not be placing any wagers for games until gameday or a day or 2 before they start.

Recapping this past regular season, I am happy with the results, but I did miss out on my goal of 50 units profit - falling short with 38 units. I'll still take it and hope that when bowls are over and Ohio State is crowned champs, I'll eclipse that 50 unit mark.

I will update this window with all plays and provide write ups when possible in the windows below. Work is keeping me very busy along with the Holiday bullshit, so time has been short and I've been fuckin around with the other sports and not capping the college footsies as much as I should.

Here's to everyone spanking the books and having a profitable month! BOL to all! :cheers:


ALL PLAYS 1 UNIT UNLESS SPECIFIED


12/19
X N. ILLINOIS +12.5 -107
X TCU/UNI OVER 46.5 -107

12/21
W BYU -3 -105 3 UNITS

12/22
X TROY / RICE UNDER 54 2 UNITS

12/23
W USF -4.5 -104
W SAN JOSE ST +3.5 -111
W UTAH -1.5 -104 2 UNITS

12/24
W HAWAII -7 -101 4 UNITS

12/26
W CMU -7 -121

12/27
X UCLA -3 -110 2 UNITS
W UCLA/FSU OVER 39 -106

12/28
X BAMA +2.5 -101 2 UNITS
W RUTGERS -7 -120 2 UNITS
X TEX A&M +3 -103 3 UNITS

12/29
W KENTUCKY +10 +102
X OREGON ST -3 -115
W S.CAROLINA -5.5 +100 5 UNITS
X Houston/SC 2nd half OVER 30.5 -105 2 units
X MARYLAND PK -104
W TEX TECH Team OVER 36.5 -111
X TEX TECH -7.5 -108
X TEX TECH -8 -103 2 UNITS
W TEX TECH -7 2H +102 2 UNITS

12/30
X BC -7 -106 2 UNITS
W IOWA +8 +100
X IOWA ML +310

1/1
X TENNESSEE -4 -102 3 UNITS
X ARKANSAS -3 +107 2 UNITS
X MICHIGAN -1 -103 4 UNITS (SEMCON SPECIAL)
X OKLAHOMO -7 -109 3 UNITS

1/2
X WF +10 -104 2 UNITS
W L'VILLE/WF u 52 -105

12/3
X IRISH +8 -103 4 UNITS

1/8
FLORIDA +7 -105 4 UNITS
 
Last edited:
NORTHERN ILLINOIS +12.5 -107 and
OVER 46.5 -107

My gut has been saying TCU, but I think overall, TCU is not thrilled with this game. The Frogs had high expectations coming into the year and early in the year suffered massive let downs with losses to BYU and Utah. However, after a 7 game win streak, here they are in the Poinsettia Bowl. My guess is that they were hoping for a better invite. Meanwhile, UNI can't be happier to just be in the post season. Garrett Wolfe will shoot for a 2000 yard season, but to do it, it will be against a stingy rush D. Best bet is that he will because with the rest, he comes in healthy for a change. If Wolfe is effective, that will help QB Nicholson in the passing game.

TCU has been blowing out their opponets with an offense that is clicking, but NIU has been strong of late on the D side and holding opps to about 9 points a game in the last three. However, I expect TCU to score, but NIU will score with them. Also, I think that the overall competition strength favors the MAC and this too could play a role. Both of these teams like being the underdog, but TCU is the clear fav here and we may see a little over confidence tonight.

With respect to the eye popping thread by TroyStacks on Bowl trends, DD dogs cover all 4 last year and Dogs over 7.5 points have hit well. In addition, overs have hit at a huge clip in the post season, and I expect this one to eclipse the 50 point mark tonight. I normally don't pay a lot of attention to trends, but this is worth considering.

Again, my gut was TCU, but gonna chance UNI, so just a 1 unit play.

Prediction:

TCU 31-24
 
BYU -3 -105 3 UNITS

Love BYU in this spot. They have shown they are an offensive juggernaut throughout the season. John Beck has been an absolute stud and I expect the Cougars to come in fired up to prove they can compete with and beat a BCS conference team. Ever since BYU shellacked TCU, I've been a believer in this team. They are an ATS moster and should have little problems moving the ball against Oregon. I am hoping that BYU will have some opportunitites on the defensive side of the ball as Dennis Dixon has more INTs than TDs. If they can get some turnovers and capitalize offensively, BYU should have a comfortable win.

As for motivation, seems BYU should have the edge here. Strength of schedule has favored Oregon, but I just can't give too many props to the PAC-10. No offense to the PAC-10 followers, but always feel that conference is overrated.

Score Prediction

BYU 38
Oregon 31
 
12/22
TROY / RICE UNDER 54 +100 2 UNITS

This game should not merit a 2 unit wager IMO, but after considering the line movements, Clements questionable status, Troy's decent D, both teams motivated to be bowling, yada-yda-yada....I like the total to go under. Opened at 49 and has shot to 54. Fading the pubes here and looking at Troys ability to hold opponets around 22 points a game and their own inability to score - think this stays under 50.


12/23
SAN JOSE ST +3.5 -111

I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched for the most part, but I'd give the edge to SJSU's offense, even though this is more of the Lobo's strength. I think in looking at some competition, Sparty has performed well - especially taking Boise St to the wire. Seems like this can come sown to a FG, so I'll take the .5 on a 1 unit play and hope for a strong performance by SJSU.


12/23
UTAH -1.5 -104 2 UNITS

Tulsa started the season like it would be an easy C-USA champ playing in Memphis at the Liberty Bowl and mid year completely fell apart losing 3 straight before finishing with an easy win over cellar dweller Tulane. Utah, meanwhile, had it's share of ups and downs, but closed the season strong before losing at home to BYU in a close one. I think we all have a clear understanding of the caliber team BYU is and coming into this game, it's hard not to like Utah. Both squads are pretty evenly matched - but I think Utah is the stronger team and plays in a much better conference. The players and coaches have reitterated they are happy to be playing, so I don't think lack of motivation will be a concern. Brett Ratliff seems safe from jail now so all should be well ;-)


12/24
HAWAII -7 -101 2 UNITS

I wish I had hit this one when it was at 6.5, but at least it is down courtesy of our dear friend Dr. Bob. Hawaii is smarting from that OSU loss and should be very motivated to have a shot at another PAC-10 team. We already saw what Oregon brought to the table against BYU - and Oregon smoked the Sun Devils 48-13 IN Tempe. While everyone thinks the visitor in this game is just vacationing, I don't quite see it that way. However, it's hard to justify a reason that ASU wins this game. Colt Brennan makes his audition for Sunday play against a decent ASU D and comes out smelling rosey! Hawaii should roll bu DD's IMO.
 
smo1a said:
12/22
TROY / RICE UNDER 54 +100 2 UNITS

This game should not merit a 2 unit wager IMO, but after considering the line movements, Clements questionable status, Troy's decent D, both teams motivated to be bowling, yada-yda-yada....I like the total to go under. Opened at 49 and has shot to 54. Fading the pubes here and looking at Troys ability to hold opponets around 22 points a game and their own inability to score - think this stays under 50.


12/23
SAN JOSE ST +3.5 -111

I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched for the most part, but I'd give the edge to SJSU's offense, even though this is more of the Lobo's strength. I think in looking at some competition, Sparty has performed well - especially taking Boise St to the wire. Seems like this can come sown to a FG, so I'll take the .5 on a 1 unit play and hope for a strong performance by SJSU.


12/23
UTAH -1.5 -104 2 UNITS

Tulsa started the season like it would be an easy C-USA champ playing in Memphis at the Liberty Bowl and mid year completely fell apart losing 3 straight before finishing with an easy win over cellar dweller Tulane. Utah, meanwhile, had it's share of ups and downs, but closed the season strong before losing at home to BYU in a close one. I think we all have a clear understanding of the caliber team BYU is and coming into this game, it's hard not to like Utah. Both squads are pretty evenly matched - but I think Utah is the stronger team and plays in a much better conference. The players and coaches have reitterated they are happy to be playing, so I don't think lack of motivation will be a concern. Brett Ratliff seems safe from jail now so all should be well ;-)


12/24
HAWAII -7 -101 2 UNITS

I wish I had hit this one when it was at 6.5, but at least it is down courtesy of our dear friend Dr. Bob. Hawaii is smarting from that OSU loss and should be very motivated to have a shot at another PAC-10 team. We already saw what Oregon brought to the table against BYU - and Oregon smoked the Sun Devils 48-13 IN Tempe. While everyone thinks the visitor in this game is just vacationing, I don't quite see it that way. However, it's hard to justify a reason that ASU wins this game. Colt Brennan makes his audition for Sunday play against a decent ASU D and comes out smelling rosey! Hawaii should roll bu DD's IMO.
Click to expand...

I am on them all bro...GL TO US
 
Im taking the under as well. I think its up to 56 now! Waited til the last minute. Im going to go make the play now. Good luck to us.
 
Painful way to lose the under, thought after overcoming that first quater it might be possible..
 
Thanks guys! Hell, after the 1st quarter, I was shocked the under was a possibility.

Added USF -4.5 for today and 2 more units on the Rainbow Warriors Sunday.

GL to you all today!
 
CENTRAL MICHIGAN -7 -121

We have CMU capping off a nice season with a well deserved bowl against MTSU, which has also put forth a nice season. Tossed around this play as I prolly would have sided with NTSU when the line was over 10 points. Public is all over CMU, yet there has been a dramatic line drop. That being said, I would also lean to MTSU. Based on stats and the situation, I have to side with the semi-home team tonight. Both D's are pretty close, however, the offensive edge goes to CMU with amuch more balanced attack. If CMU can hold the rushing attack of MTSU in check and jump to a lead forcing MTSU to throw - CMU wins with ease. If MTSU has a good game running the ball, could be a possible upset. Bottom line, CMU has more offensive weapons at the skill positions and have to give them that edge. Comfort level and lots of juice make this a 1 unit prayer!
 
Is Dr. Bob on the Noles? Don't really get why this line has dropped like it has. Public is all over the Bruins and rightfully so. UCLA is off the great win over SC and looking to finish strong in what can be a strong year next season. A win here would also help on the recruiting front. I like the Bruins mostly because I don't see the Noles doing a lot offensively. The FSU days of dominance are long gone and the only way they win tonight is if the Bruins give it away. FSU has a great D so you have to favor the under, but at 39.5, I'm thinking of adding a small play on the over. We've seen an inordinate amount of unders so far this bowl season, so logic may say this goes over. Thinking as I type this, so fuck it, small play on the over and Murphy's Law. UCLA can put up some points and with the probs FSU has offensively, they may have had enough time to prepare and gameplan to find an area of weakness with the Bruin's D.

Bold Prediction:

UCLA 27
FSU 20

UCLA -3 -110 2 UNITS
UNDER 39 -106

Good luck ya'll
 
THURSDAY BOWLS

I'm on my pocket pc so must be brief. Bama is in an interesting situation without a coach. The D has been solid all year and they will have a good test today against Bobby Reid. Should manage to contain him and get some opps offensively against a weaker D. After FSU's performance on offense last night, thinking Bama may have a surprise or two. Expect a close game with Bama winning by a field goal.

Hated laying the juice on Rutgers, so this is only 2 units. K State came on strong and look solid. Just see RU being focused and ready with a solid D. I'd expect a 10 point win. Ray Rice could go nuts!

Fading my least favorite conference and siding with Aggie. If they can hold Lynch, A&M wins this game. The offense has gotten better and the Aggies have stuck with everyone lately. The Texas win will help with momentum and coach needs this win (even after beating the Horns).

BAMA +2.5 -101 2 UNITS
RUTGERS -7 -120 2 UNITS
TEX A&M +3 -103 3 UNITS
 
FRIDAY BOWLS

Added:

KENTUCKY +10 +102
S.CAROLINA -5.5 +100 *5*
MARYLAND PK -104

Kentucky will fight hard in this game and should compete well enough to stay within 10. Going big on Spurriers boys as I think that the Cocks have played very well 2nd half of the season. Houston also playing well, but give time to prep, Spurrier will be ready to make a statement. Everythingthatsgreen has an excellent thread on this game, so nothing to add that has not been covered.

As for the Boilermakers now favored, not sure why. Ralph is good in bowls, so I'll side with the Terps for a unit in a pick 'em.

Still waiting to play Tech, just hoping that line goes down to 7 with manageable juice. You would think that they should score at will against Minny, but we've seen some wacky shit last few days. Pending outcome of the Gamecocks, I'll decide if and how much I put on Tech. Don't wanna get greedy or chase.
 
Actually like all 3 of ur picks. I feel like i know the sec well. Ive seen every clemson game also. Unless they have their injured guys back, and a new qb who i havent seen all year.. UK should put up enough points to keep it within the number.

South Carolina v Houston is strange imho. Blake Mitchell has been pretty sharp, and the cocks have a nice balance with play calling. Houston has played NO ONE all year. I cant see them stopping south carolina at all.
 
Added:

OREGON ST -3 -115
TEX TECH -7.5 -108

May add to Tech if line drops to 7 with reasonable vig.
 
GL today smo1a, like SC and agree Texas Tech should put up bunches, hopefully the cover because thats my largest play of the bowl season so far
 
Green - Riding SC large because of your insight. Lets get 'em bro!

Renew - Lot's of folks on Tech and on paper, they should cruise. Love a gambler like Leach, so should see some serious points. Still hoping to add more on the side. BOL to you as well.
 
Added:

TEXAS TECH -8 -103 2 UNITS

Hope this hit's cuz I'm screwed if Scary don't cover
 
SATURDAY BOWLS

As a Horn alum, very nervous about Iowa. Our D is suspect and Tate could have a field day. Not too sure about players motivation as there were repeat aspirations and now they are in San Antonio. Iowa will travel well and represent in the crowd. Gut says we lose and historically, we do bad in the shit bowls. Given time to regroup after a truly shit season, the Hawkeyes will be motivated and if they get a good hit on Colt, look out for the other McCoy, cuz he aint the REAL McCoy! I'm a Horn Homer, so this hopefully says something that I think we lose SU.

IOWA +8 +100
IOWA ML +310
 
Green, no prob - glad we hit.

Against my better judgment laying Tech -7 +102 2nd half. WTF is up ?
 
Even without a head coach, BC should have little trouble with Navy. Rutgers and ND to name a few won easily, so BC should manage this as well.

BC -7 -106 2 UNITS
 
NEW YEARS DAY BOWLS

Taking today off and just gonna wait and see how tomorrow does. Riding with some heavy public plays, a little nervous, but all in all - feel I'm siding with the best teams.

TENNESSEE -4 -102 3 UNITS
ARKANSAS -3 +107 2 UNITS
MICHIGAN -1 -103 4 UNITS
OKLAHOMO -7 -109 3 UNITS

Vols should have little problem with an off year (or regular year depending how you look at PSU last year) PSU squad. Ainge should do well and the running game has been solid. SEC to me is the better conference top to bottom and the Vols played a very tough schedule. Think they can win by at least a TD over JoPa.

Arkie let a BCS game just slip by, but still a nice bowl against a solid Wisky team. However, Wisky had a pretty soft schedule, Nutt is great in Bowl games and with time to prepare I think they come out a whip the Badgers. McFadden runs nuts and Arkie wins with surprising ease.

Michigan had their shot and blew it. SC really had a shot and blew it. Who cares more in this one? It's the fucking Rose Bowl, they both care. Should be an excellent game and will come down to the better defense. I like Michigan and homers aside, so does SEMCON. Big Blue takes it to the condoms.

Boise will show why they don't belong with the Big Boys, especially off the blue turf. OU and Peterson steam roll the Broncos.
 
Worst New Years day imaginable. Lost all 4 plays. Here are the gems for Tuesday...

WF +10 -104 2 UNITS
L'VILLE/WF u 52 -105

Can it get any worse?
 
SUGAR BOWL

IRISH +8 -103 4 UNITS

Fat man will end the streak tonight and shock the world. Actually, an Irish cover would be shocking in itself. Should have played this earlier, but after Monday, books prolly needed some ND bettors. Can't think Weiss has ever been more motivated than he has to be for this game to end ND's bowl futility.
 
Bcs Championship

FLORIDA +7 -105 4 UNITS

I can't tell you enough how much I hate this play and that I will more than likely regret it. Based on my performance n the BCS games, I decided to side against my logic and gut tonight because it has done nothing for me thus far. Everyone has excellent reasons for why either team will cover tonight. All are valid and worthy, but my lean is OSU and thus I will fade myself!

BOL to all tonight. Never tought I'd be happy to see the season close, but after a great regular season and early bowls, just glad the losses will end with no more games!

On to BBall full time !

Fuck you college fotsies ;-)
 
smo1a said:
FLORIDA +7 -105 4 UNITS

I can't tell you enough how much I hate this play and that I will more than likely regret it. Based on my performance n the BCS games, I decided to side against my logic and gut tonight because it has done nothing for me thus far. Everyone has excellent reasons for why either team will cover tonight. All are valid and worthy, but my lean is OSU and thus I will fade myself!

BOL to all tonight. Never tought I'd be happy to see the season close, but after a great regular season and early bowls, just glad the losses will end with no more games!

On to BBall full time !

Fuck you college fotsies ;-)
Click to expand...

Fading yourself worked... LOL Nice hit man, good way to end the season..
 
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