SMEGMA week 7

[Tan1010]

Locked in

Alabama & Mizzoo over 73.5
Penn St & Mich St over 52.5
Notre Dame & Pitt over 54

Need help and opinions on games below

1) Wisconsin +9 or over 49?
I hear all the talk how Wisconsin secondary sucks due to injuries and bad play. But they are 4-1 beating Iowa in Iowa. Not sure Michigan would do the same? Anybody with insight on how bad secondary will be for this game? Did they all get hurt prior to and during Nebraska game which they won comfortably...thought they lost from what I was hearing

2) Colorado vs So. Cal over 56.5 - I'm thinking a rested USC team goes against a weaker than they're used to defense at home will put up points. Colorado offense has been chugging along. Thoughts?

3) Can Air Force score 13+ vs SD St?

 

[B.A.R.]

SC and Colly over is very popular right now. And I agree. I haven't been able to talk myself out of agreeing either.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck this week.

 

[Tan1010]

Adding 2 teasers

1) NY Giants +8.5
Texas Tech +13
Air Force +17.5

2) Iowa State +13.5
Duke +10
UCF +2.5

 

[Tan1010]

SMEGMA off to a bad start. NY Giants are really bad.

Added ML parlay:
Ga Southern. WIN
BC
UCF

 

[Fondybadger]

1) Wisconsin +9 or over 49?
I hear all the talk how Wisconsin secondary sucks due to injuries and bad play. But they are 4-1 beating Iowa in Iowa. Not sure Michigan would do the same? Anybody with insight on how bad secondary will be for this game? Did they all get hurt prior to and during Nebraska game which they won comfortably...thought they lost from what I was hearing

https://www.jsonline.com/story/spor...e-out-necessity-badgers-secondary/1530246002/

The Wisconsin Badgers secondary couldn't have been much more depleted than it was leaving Saturday's game against Nebraska, and it meant true freshmen such as Rachad Wildgoose and Donte Burton were getting some extended introductions.

At one point, both were on the field in the fourth quarter of Wisconsin's 41-24 victory over Nebraska at Camp Randall Stadium in a game where the secondary took a beating. Consider:

• Safety D'Cota Dixon landed awkwardly on his right foot late in the game and was taken into the sideline tent for evaluation.*
• Scott Nelson was disqualified in the second half for targeting and will have to sit out the first half of next week's game at Michigan.
• Sophomore cornerback Caesar Williams did not play with a leg injury.
• His replacement, redshirt freshman Deron Harrell, left with a head injury early in the game and did not return.
• Sophomore Eric Burrell needed his left pinkie wrapped after the game when the ball clipped him on the final defensive play of the night.**
• Redshirt freshman Faion Hicks, who played most of the night, has a thumb ligament injury and came into the game questionable to play.

Article continues via link
-------------------------------------
New article - https://www.foxsports.com/wisconsin...s-secondary-depth-injuries-dcota-dixon-100818

*Dixon had his right foot in a protective boot on Monday after getting hurt late in last week’s 41-24 victory over Nebraska. The senior said the boot was just a precaution after landing on the foot the wrong way. He wasn’t listed on the first injury report ahead of this week’s showdown at No. 12 Michigan on Saturday night. “I expect to play but you’re never 100 percent during the season … No one is,” said Dixon. He is tied for third on the team with 25 tackles.

** Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst said Monday that backup sophomore safety Eric Burrell will start in Nelson’s place.

The Badgers are 15-1 in road games under Chryst, including 10 straight.

 

[Fondybadger]

I hit the Badgers team total over 20 not too long ago, probably for too much. I think the Badgers have a chance to win the game, but to do so they're going to need to put up 28-31 points. I think Michigan will get points and I think the game will be decided under 7 (if there isn't a garbage score late). I can see something late in the game in the 27-24 range with a late score putting one team up 31-27 or losing 34-24.

Suggested plays on that game for me in order of preference:
Wisconsin team total over
over 49
Wisconsin +9/9.5 (would put +10, if not too juiced in front of the over 49 if it got there)

Taking off the Badger glasses, I could see a Michigan blowout as well, but even in that scenario I don't see the Badger not putting up 20 unless they settle for and/or miss a ton of field goals. I'll probably do $50 on Wisconsin ML as both a homer, and as something I see good value in.

 

[Tan1010]

Thanks FB.....I'm going to roll with the over 47.5 (bought 1 point by accident...new laptop...new betting window on site messed me up).....parlayed with Notre Dame ML and Fresno ML to win. +113

 

[Tan1010]

And a 10 team Almost Parlay I forgot I put in early. Was also out drinking a few beers so shot from the hip

1) Wisconsin +7.5 - put in before knowing about injuries. Hoping now they can stay close with their offense "keeping up"

2) Colorado +6.5 - Rolling with undefeated team here.

3) Ohio State game over 59.5 - Run it up Urban. Can't count how man times Urban scored a late TD up 20+ points to screw me. Pile it on for me tomorrow.

4) UCF -4.5 - Tulane made Memphis look bad. UCF can too.

5) Missouri +28.5 - Too many points for capable Mizzoo team. Backdoor unlocked if needed

6) Washington -3.5 - They're supposed to be class of PAC 10. Prove it.

7) Pitt +20.5 - Make it look good with a late score

8) Michigan State +13.5 - They play best game of year as everybody says they suck. I'm not falling for it.

9) Tennessee +15.5. - Everybody saying Auburn sucks. I'm falling for this one

10) Bowling Green +13.5 - Home dog barks