Stat that Stands Out
31.82
That’s VT’s 3rd conversion rate. Its also the lowest at VT in at least 6yrs & Id say may be more than a decade if not longer. Yes they played Bama week 1 but they also played an FCS, ECU & Marshall. And while Marshall is playing some stout defense, there is no way a power program should go 2/16 on 3rd down against them. Just shouldn’t happen, like ever. To give some context of just how shitty 31.82% is, here are the teams that finished worst than that LY: Wazzu, Auburn, Colorado, Maryland, BC & Idaho. Those 6 squads produced a whopping 14wins COMBINED!!!
On The Ground
GT does what GT does, and that’s run the goddamn leather off the football, get another and run the goddamn leather off that one too. GT runs 72 plays/gm, of that 73, 60 are runs (82%). We already knew GT runs a LOT, but I don’t think many of us understand just what that means. GT with its triple option & cut blocking puts a toll on front 7 defenders, especially interior linemen. Normally a defensive front 7 gets around 30 plays/gm (roughly43%) where they are in pass rush mode. That means attacking full ahead while the O line is in retreat/give space for time mode. Advantage Defense. Vs GT that happens about 13x/gm (about 18%), the rest of the game it’s the O Line attacking and coming for the DL. This in itself is tiring enough because the offense knows where the play is going and who will be double teamed etc. But GT adds another devastating element: The Cut block. This is EVERY DL’s worst nightmare, not only do they not know where the play is going and who’s getting doubled, they also gotta look down and see who’s about to take their knees out. What does this do? Makes DLinemen hesitant , makes them first look to see who’s coming for their knees. And in option football, that’s all a team needs, that 1 sec of hesitation.
The Jackets main 2 rushers are big David Sims & QB Vad Lee (who I fucking think the world of). 50% of the time the ball is going to be carried by 1 of these 2. Sims is probably the best GT back since Jonathan Dwyer, although a strong case can be made for Anthony Allen. Either way the Jackets haven’t had a 1,000yd rusher since 2010. They might just have 1 this year. Next up is Vad Lee, the conductor of the symphony, just a soph but it already feels as if he has more grasp of the offense than Tevin Washington ever had, and certainly more arm. Vad’s job is to distribute the ball, make decisions on who gets it where and always force the issue on the defense. The Triple option QB’s job is remarkably similar to the dropback passing QBs job. The distributing of the ball is just done by handoff instead of pass. The one caveat is the drop back passer would rarely pass to himself, the Triple Option QB frequently calls his own number. And that’s very simple, when the QB is involved in the run game it’s a numbers advantage for the Offense. The guy that’s the highlight film runner is Robert Godhigh, he doesn’t touch it a lot but when he does its is usually a big run. Johnson usually involves him in the game when defenses overplay the dive & QB. Godhigh is sometimes a pitch man, sometimes the toss man, sometimes the reverse man. But he’s always the “We caught you peeking now here’s our speed” man. If VT is selling out on the dive & QB Godhigh will be 1 on 1 on the outside a lot.
Defensively the Jackets have improved immensely & I think we ALL know why. The removal of Al “I don’t know what the fuck Im dong anymore “ Groh, and the Addition of Ted Roof. Different people feel different ways about Roof, I like him & think he can coach a defense. The key here is GT does just enough on 1st & 2nd down running defense to make 3rd down almost always a passing down. Im not 1 to think Elon, Duke or UNc have in any proven this to be a stout defense by shutting them down on the ground, but they performed very well against those foes and did not give any indication that they are anything but a good run defense. Plus those teams could call complete a forward pass. VT cant. Because of this, you’ll see quite a bit of GT’s safeties crashing down in the box on early downs, forcing VT to have to pass & complete on 1st & 2nd, meanwhile also forcing the VT backs to make their first moves in the backfield/at the line instead of beyond it. That alone allows follow up defenders just that lil bit of time to get there.
The Turkeymen rely on Frosh RB Trey Edmunds to power their ground game, & that sonovabitch is pretty damn talented. 6’1 215 with good speed & the ability to cut, Edmunds is a force to be reckoned with. Now he’s a Frosh tho, so there will be ups & downs to his game, things that only come with time will be missing or spotty. Most schools recruited him as on OLB, that’s how VT was able to snag & keep a kid like this. But also why he will not look as polished as a 5 star back. He’s their most talented runner & learning on the job, but make a mistake in your run fit and you’ll see the back of his jersey.
As far as scheme, LMAO (excuse me while I laugh my ass off)…………..Scott Loeffler, that’s all that really needs to be said. Or maybe for those unfamiliar, go watch Auburn LY, because that’s exactly what VT is this year in EVERY facet on offense. And of course the common factor is Loser err Loeffler. He’s the pound a square peg into a round hole guy, the call them same play 3x in a row after it didn’t waork the 1st 5x guy, the Jesus fucking Christ the whole defense knew the play guy. Guys like Loeffler tend to call plays that on one hand expect high level execution by his players (though don’t they all?) & on the other cover his ass because they expect high level execution by the players. HE doesn’t put players in position to succeed. A team like Bama? Yeah they can call plays that say “Go out there be a 5star player & beat your guy”, its harder to do that with a 2star or a TE playing QB. You need to give them scheme advantages that make up for their physical limitations. Loeffler doesn’t, he calls plays like he has 5stars, and then cans use the old coaching cliché “We didn’t execute”. No shit you asked a guy who probably carried the defender’s jock trap in HS to whip him 1 on 1 like he was the hulk. I hate coaches like that. Give your guys a SCHEMATIC advantage.
Now the VT defense, mmm yeah they aint NO FUCKING JOKE! Ask Bama, ask ECU, ask Marshall. Those will be 3 of the best offenses in the nation by years end and VT capped them all up. The worst performance was 361 total yds vs Marshall (Marshall averages 485yds/gm). Say what you will about Bud Foster, but he is the EXACT opposite of Loeffler. Foster using scheme to give his kids an advantage. He’s basically the father of the hybrid defenses everyone in CFB plays these days. He took a base 4-3, made the Strong safety a wildcard guy (backer/safety hybrid), replaced the WILL backer with basically a big safety, dropped him the SSi n the box and said you will not run on us. Period! And if you wanna go 3 or 4 wide I can stay in base personnel & match up with you across the field. Pure genius then and perfect for right now. VT hasn’t exactly corralled the GT run game unless you use LY in a vacuum. They also had 6 fucking months to prepare for GT LY. This time they have 3 days. BIG difference. Go look how GT has done on the ground vs VT excluding LY and its 6mos runup period. Yeah, not pretty huh?
Through The Air
Lets get one thing straight neither team is very good at the forward pass. But VT is fucking AWFUL, like New Mexico, Ga ST, South Florida, Miami Oh awful. No defense is afraid of the VT passing offense, which then allows defenses to concentrate fully on the run game. A self feeding cycle. Logan Thomas IS NOT A QB, say it with me Logan Thomas IS NOT A QB. I hear folks say “he has no receivers”, well he did LY and wasn’t any better. No its fairly plain to see that Logan Thomas is NOT a QB, the hire of Loeffler was for 1 reason. Make Logan a QB. IF Loeffler can do anything he can teach the QB position. But after the last yr + Thomas has had, you have to think that kid’s head is dust & confidence is at Marianas trench lows. I mean he was told before last season he was a 1st rd QB, prolly had these great dreams of leading an NFL team and having lots of money. Now4gms in to his senior year he already knows that if he’s lucky he might get a TC invite. That does not help the psyche. Its like having $10milly & slowly watching it go away.
Schematically, its hitches, screens, Go Routes & some play action. None of it seems to have any coherence or flow. Teams are willing to go man or cover 3 and say Logan make an accurate throw. This passing game is piss poor.
The VT pass defense, much like the run defense is special. For many of the same reasons I said earlier. Hybrid scheme allows the use of base personnel in many situations. And…….having the Fuller brothers is almost unfair. Those 2 dudes are fucking studs. They will BOTH start in the NFL & my guess is be all pros. Just extremely talented and lockdown receivers.
GT actually has a guy who can pass the ball now. Vad Lee is pretty good at passing considering his 1st, 2nd & 3rd job is running the option. Id say he’s better than Denard Robinson ever was at passing (I know not much of a compliment), but that’s ALL he has to be in this offense. When teams face GT, the secondary’s initial step must be FORWARD. Because of this GT needs only BIG, FAST WRs. They aint gotta be excellent route runner. They just need to be great blockers, be top end fast & be rangy. Every GT WR route looks like a block for the option, combined with the opposing team’s secondary crashing down hard to stop the run means the GT WRs are running full speed in the OPPOSITE direction that the people covering them are running. This is why you need not have the best passer at QB & you need a Big Fast WR, because now the QB needs only chuck it up. If your WR is 6’5 & runs 4.5 or less, you win. Throw it far enough the WR is gone, throw it short, he’s big enough to reach back & get it. Amazingly simple concept that has produced Megatron & Stephen Hill.
GT’s Passing D is actually REALLY good too. They held a UNC team many thought would be a passing juggernaut to 218yds & 48.3% completions. Even better GT is holding opponents to just 45.7% completions on 1st down! That means if you throw vs GT on 1st more than likely its 2nd & 10 or more. Add that with pretty good 1st down run defense & you can see how GT is winning on defense. They make you have to beat them on 3rd down passing. (Hi Logan Thomas lol). Oh yeah GT holds foes to 11/27(40.7%) passing on 3rd down. So in other words TE Thomas has his work cut out for him big time.
What I See
I pretty much made the narrative for this above. GT wins on 1st down, gets TE Thomas in many passing downs & gets him back off the field. GT holds the ball & marches down the field eating clock & taking opportunity away from TE Thomas to toss up some BS. The addition of Vad Lee & his passing allows GT to convert some crucial passing downs plays & some surprise pass plays. Around late 3rd, to mid 4th GT runs away a bit.
GT 31 VT17
. I know we want y'all to not lose anymore games. Need that game to be a banger. Good news for y'all tho is Jorts is gone. Bad for us 
