Second round of NBA playoffs bets

divol

The Spurs can suck my manhood
First round record:
18W - 12L
+40,98 units

Posted RW prop bet in previous thread (and lost), but it will go here obviously.


Took this one a bit earlier, teaser of 5.5 points:

Indiana +12 with Cleveland -2 and Oklahoma +12.5 - 2.50 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle

Will write reasoning for the plays tomorrow.
 
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Thanks guys! I also like Over in Oakland tonight, but more as a TV game bet - to make it a bit more interesting. I think that Livingston and Thompson have huge advantage over Portland guards and should exploit it to the full, but the total is few points short. Hate taking bets in first game of the series though, so keeping is very small and unofficial (2 units bet for me here).

Also decided to take Livingston Over 13.5 points for 1.98 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

See no reason why Thompson and Livingston shouldn't post up on Portland small guards all night long...
 
That Livingston bet is pretty hard to argue with, so I guess I'll just shut up and tail...
 
Thanks guys! I also like Over in Oakland tonight, but more as a TV game bet - to make it a bit more interesting. I think that Livingston and Thompson have huge advantage over Portland guards and should exploit it to the full, but the total is few points short. Hate taking bets in first game of the series though, so keeping is very small and unofficial (2 units bet for me here).

Also decided to take Livingston Over 13.5 points for 1.98 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

See no reason why Thompson and Livingston shouldn't post up on Portland small guards all night long...
I like, GL
 
Livingston doesn't agree with me so far. Was trying to choose between him and Thompson and so far... looks like the wrong choice...
Hate betting on Game 1 of the series...
 
Fwiw I'm on that prop as well as Barnes pts and am fine with it, someone will be scoring for GSW in the 4th
 
Livingston doesn't agree with me so far. Was trying to choose between him and Thompson and so far... looks like the wrong choice...
Hate betting on Game 1 of the series...
Was also looking at Klay props...we can score 8 more w/ Livingston :cheers3:
 
Again, made the wrong choice between player's props. Should have taken Thompson and not Livingston... :(

Will try to post my thoughts on both series that are played tonight later on.

Bets for now:

Kevin Love Under 17.5 points, 1.91 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle
Oklahoma +7.5, 1.95 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle
Russel Westbrook Over 24.5 points, 1.98 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle
 
Few fast thoughts before going to bed.

Cleveland - Atlanta

Atlanta last year was first of all great offensive team, with system that reminded a lot of the Spurs that won the title, the year before that. But, they faded away in the second half of the season, barely made it past the weak Nets and the very injured Wizards and with Blatt's great defensive scheme + injuries of Love and Kyrie, that put Thompson and Deli on the floor, Hawks offense had zero chance and their defense just wasn't good.
This season, it's the other way around. Hawks improved in the second half of the season and were the best defense after ASG break in the entire league. They easily won over Boston, a team that is better than Nets and Wizards teams they faced a year ago.
Love and Kyrie healthy are great news to Lue on offense, but what about defense. Can't see Love doing anything good against Milsap or Horford and he hates to guard player with shooting range. I believe that Lue will be forced to lower Love's minutes in this series, if coach Bud plays his hand right.
Also, if there was ever made a player that is just perfect to break Hawks defense, it's LeBron. Great basketball IQ, one of the best in the game, against defense that gambles a lot - always a bad sign for the defense.
I doubt we will see a sweep and it will be much closer competition than last year, but I would be shocked not to see Cleveland in the NBA Finals.

SA - Oklahoma

LMA admitted that some shots that went in in Game 1, he doubts will go in, in Game 2. Spurs had the perfect storm, with everything good that could happen for them, went their way and Thunder the exact opposite. I believe that Spurs will win the series due to home court advantage and much much much better coaching, but it still should be a close series and statistics usually even out.
Expecting Westbrook to show up and Thunder as well.
 
Miami Heat to win the series - 2.31 odds - 10 units play - Pinnacle

Will elaborate on my thoughts on the series later on today, but mostly it's fading the Raptors and respecting Heat's experience both organization wise and players wise.
 
Heat +4.5, 1.93 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

Livingston Over 12.5 points, 2.07 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Over 213 points in Oakland, 2.00 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle

Will try to write my thoughts a bit later tonight.
 
Didn't have time to write anything before that games, but will write a bit after that.

I believe that bookies and public are really giving Curry's absence too much value as far as the total goes. Both teams play very fast basketball and before tonight's game, all five games had 220+ points scored. The fourth quarter killed the Over bet, but would have taken it again without hesitation. If Curry is out in Game 3, will probably be on the Over (depending on the total of course).

Livingston... bet won, but I feel that it was very lucky. Livingston is good, when GSW offense is flowing. He isn't the guy that will force plays. He also struggles a bit and in both games, took his shots a feet or two further from the basket than he should have. No reason for him not to take his defender a bit closer, especially with Green out on three pointer, drawing his defender with him.
 
Wanted to take Cleveland and Under on Love, but decided not to in the end yesterday... :(

Will take the Raptors tonight. If there is one game that I'm willing to place my money on Toronto the entire postseason, it's this game. Finally out of the first round and down 0 - 1 after Game 1... if they fail to win tonight, they will get swept I believe...

Raptors -5, 1.95 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle
 
Miami -5, 1.88 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

I just really don't believe in Toronto and this series is getting a bit heated, so expecting a strong response from the Heat tonight.


Oklahoma to win, 1.98 odds - 8 units play - Pinnacle

Trusted Thunder in Game 3, but I guess it's zig zag series all the way...
 
There's this thing I keep seeing in live betting, and I'm hoping to try to hit it today: Westbrook gets taken out for a rest every game with around 1-3 minutes left in the first quarter. I don't think the live betting for the first quarter always takes Westbrook's removal into account, especially when the live betting is offered just before Westbrook goes out. So there is this small surge in Spur defense/scoring that takes place for the rest of the first quarter that usually beats the live betting spread that gets offered right before Westbrook is taken out of the game...
 
Very mad at myself for forgetting to bet the Over in Portland last night. Was going to do that and just slipped my mind...

Atlanta - Cleveland

Will be surprised to see Cleveland lose tonight, but bookies agree and the line in my eyes, takes away all the advantage. I need to believe that Cleveland will win by double digits to make this bet...
But, I really doubt that Love will go off tonight. I doubt he can be as dominant two games in a row and Hawks were pretty mad at themselves regarding their defense on Love in Game 3 and I believe they will try to do a better job tonight.
Kevin Love Under 17.5 points, 1.85 odds - 9 units play - Pinnacle

I also really like RW Over 10.5 assists for 2.29 odds, mainly because of the odds, because in my eyes, with him promising to get his teammates more involved in Game 4, the line should be evens at 11 assists...
 
Interesting way of thinking :)
Good luck :)

I thought my previous Trailblazers under bet was interesting as well, and it turned out to be a horrible bet. Hopefully this bet is better, or at least I cash in due to 50% randomness...
 
Took Heat -5 for 1.98 odds for 9 units
Over 214 in Portland for 2.00 odds for 6 units
Livingston Over 12.5 points for 2.34 odds for 4 units

Will post thoughts tomorrow...
 
If it wasn't enough that Curry ended up playing, but also Livingston ejected... But got lucky with the Heat, so can't complain...
 
There's this thing I keep seeing in live betting, and I'm hoping to try to hit it today: Westbrook gets taken out for a rest every game with around 1-3 minutes left in the first quarter. I don't think the live betting for the first quarter always takes Westbrook's removal into account, especially when the live betting is offered just before Westbrook goes out. So there is this small surge in Spur defense/scoring that takes place for the rest of the first quarter that usually beats the live betting spread that gets offered right before Westbrook is taken out of the game...

This actually worked even better than it did the three games previous. With 5 minutes left, live betting offered Spurs -2.5 for 1st quarter (Spurs had a 2 or 3-point lead). Two minutes later Westbrook cussed the ref, got a technical, was rested on the bench, at which point it was Spurs -3.5 for the first quarter (Spurs then led by 3 or 4 points). Spurs won the first quarter by 8 or 10 points...

I guess I'll keep at it until I get burned...
 
Very hard to trust queries in the playoffs... it's all about match ups imo...

Warriors should close the series tonight and win by double digits, but zero desire to bet on that.

I like the Over in this series again tonight and Heat... as always...
 
Golden State - Portland

I thought that Curry's return will bring the total to 220+ points, but I guess elimination game factor keeps the total down.
Again, see zero reason for one of the teams to try and slow the tempo down. Portland can't play it in slow tempo and GSW doesn't want to.
Portland should cross 100 points mark and Golden State should cross 115 points mark. Something like 123 - 107 makes sense here.
Over 217.5 points, 1.95 odds - 7 units play - Pinnacle

Toronto - Miami

Many believe that injuries of both Centers are helping the Raptors and I don't get it to be honest. Vala was Raps best player by far this postseason, together with Joseph. I trust Wade and JJ much much much more than I do DeRozan and Lowry...
Heat +4.5, 1.97 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle
 
So would this indicate Warriors -13 is a play tonight?

"Indicate" is a pretty accurate word. If everything else you look at points to the same conclusion, then this is one more indication. I don't really think there is a 90% chance of a cover tonight, that's for sure. But at least it's not screaming warning signs to stay away from the bet...
 
The other night when Curry first came in the game, gs was way down, and though they didn't explode into an immediate lead after he came in, the team on the floor just seemed to brighten up and recover a good deal of swagger. Especially after the way Curry closed that game out, I am expecting the whole team to kind of pound all over Portland tonight as a way of saying that, not only Curry, but all of them are now back and ready to start dominating again....
 
Weren't they down 18-2 or something like that at the halfway point of the 1st quarter when he came in? Completely changed the Portland defense and obviously injected life into GSW, but 2 points lol
 
Yes, so I am kind of thinking that in Oakland, even if they play no better than they did after Curry came into the game at Portland, that would lead to a 14-16 point lead by the end of the game....but I am hoping they play better than that. I am hoping they play D tonight like they did in overtime in the last game. That's when they really got a handle on Portland.
 
Toronto - Miami

Many believe that injuries of both Centers are helping the Raptors and I don't get it to be honest. Vala was Raps best player by far this postseason, together with Joseph. I trust Wade and JJ much much much more than I do DeRozan and Lowry...
Heat +4.5, 1.97 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle
Not sure why you would say that. Biyombo played very well, as far as I'm concerned - not his fault they stopped going to him, opting instead to let DeRozan and Lowry lose the game for them.
 
Yeah, no doubt, he been great, but still...
He doesn't have the size or the offense of Val...
 
Dub's sure didn't dominate last night... but then again the refs gave portland so many calls. Obviously they couldnt have both the favorite and the over hit.
 
I liked Thunder before the start of the series, but didn't pull the trigger. It's hard to take the Thunder, to win three straight games in a very equal series (aside from Game 1 - all games could have gone either way), but it's impossible for me to fade them as well.
So... will stick to my Under in elimination games bet that I like so much :)

Under 197 points in Oklahoma, 1.95 odds - 10 units play - Pinnacle
Under 190 points in Miami, 1.95 odds - 10 units play - Pinnacle
 
Dub's sure didn't dominate last night... but then again the refs gave portland so many calls. Obviously they couldnt have both the favorite and the over hit.

That game went totally different than I envisioned it. I noticed Curry said afterwards that gs was well aware that they were going to have to dial it up a bit to beat the Spurs or Thunder. And here I was thinking they were going for the glory in one last game against Portland...
 
I liked Thunder before the start of the series, but didn't pull the trigger. It's hard to take the Thunder, to win three straight games in a very equal series (aside from Game 1 - all games could have gone either way), but it's impossible for me to fade them as well.
So... will stick to my Under in elimination games bet that I like so much :)

Under 197 points in Oklahoma, 1.95 odds - 10 units play - Pinnacle
Under 190 points in Miami, 1.95 odds - 10 units play - Pinnacle
BOL Divol
 
Looking at how the Spurs have been playing and how they react to close-out games, I'm thinking they go over today. But I'm not betting against you divol, and I hope I am wrong once again...
 
Miami Heat to win the series - 2.31 odds - 10 units play - Pinnacle

Will elaborate on my thoughts on the series later on today, but mostly it's fading the Raptors and respecting Heat's experience both organization wise and players wise.

What's your situation here? You're gonna let it ride or hedge some back?
 
Miami - Toronto

On top of the Under bet, I like two bets here.
I like Heat in this spot. I'm worried about fatigue, but I still can't trust the Raptors. Heat have much more experience and shouldn't roll over.
I expect Wade and JJ to lead the team and kind of surprised of the low total and nice odds on JJ's prop here - especially if somehow Deng is out tonight (though that won't happen).
Miami -4, 2.00 odds - 6 units play - Pinnacle
JJ Over 13.5 points, 1.94 odds - 5 units play - Pinnacle
 
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