SEC Week One

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I know we still have a whole week of games before the SEC gets underway, but I did my starting PRs this weekend and I'm ready to get to the matchups. Figure there will be some roster news this week as they move from fall camp to game week.

Games:

Alabama @ Mizzou
Florida @ Ole Miss
UGA @ Arkansas
Kentucky @ AU
Tennessee @ SCAR
Miss St @ LSU
Vandy @ aTm

I struggled forming the PRs because like most, I did very little research over the months when a season was very much up in the air, and with the number of opt-outs and possibilities of missed practices and games, I just didn't keep up with it all. So I'm very interested to watch these first games to see what we have.

While I am certainly biased, I think that Alabama is far better suited to navigate the current issues than most, and certainly moreso than Mizzou. I will be on Alabama in multiple ways in that game, unless of course there is a major outbreak or something.

I'm not sure I buy Florida. I mean, I can believe they are the 3rd best team in the conference, but I don't think they're all that close to UGA or Alabama. I think Lane can keep them pretty off balance, especially with Plumlee's running ability.

UGA can name their score against Arky. I think UGA has some issues, but they totally outclass the Hogs everywhere. Maybe Kirby doesn't run it up against a former employee? But Kirby is an asshole, so I wouldn't bet on it

Kentucky @ AU is the most interesting game on the slate to me. UK's OL will likely win the battle against AU's DL. How well the back 7 holds up for AU, which is a strength, will be the story. I'm not a fan of Bo Nix' game, and he has a brand new OL to operate in. Also will be interesting to see if Gus finally lets an OC do his own thing, or if Gus just can't help himself.

I think I'm buying Tennessee this year to make a jump. Not to compete for a title, but to be competitive in all of their games. Pruitt can recruit and he knows how to coach, it just remains to be seen if he can effectively lead the program. Tennessee always seems to make a late season run against a weak schedule, they won't be able to count on this season. Muschamp is starting his 8th straight season on the hot seat. Seems like they lost the few playmakers they had, but maybe I just don't know their situation very well off the top of my head

Miss St/LSU also has my interest. On the Miss St side, it's obvious why. Can't wait to see Leach in the SEC. I don't think anyone knows what to make of LSU. They're basically on probation this season with the number of scholarship players they have, but those players are pretty awesome. I imagine the hangover from last season will be a thing, just don't know how much of a thing. I feel like Orgeron is going to be a roller coaster for the rest of his tenure

Vandy is going to be awful. aTm will be somewhere between average and pretty good. Mond is in his 9th and final year of eligibility I think.
 
What teams have been impacted by covid precautions and protocols? I know Tenn and AU have both had a substantial number of players miss time or had practices canceled. I believe LSU did as well. To date, I don't think Alabama has had anyone that matters miss multiple practices or opt out of the season, and unless I missed it, all practices have proceeded as scheduled. Who else? Mizzou? Ole Miss?
 
I heard some commentators the other day saying TAMU should have LSU preseason ranking.....

Ummmm, no
 
gps_3 said:
What teams have been impacted by covid precautions and protocols? I know Tenn and AU have both had a substantial number of players miss time or had practices canceled. I believe LSU did as well. To date, I don't think Alabama has had anyone that matters miss multiple practices or opt out of the season, and unless I missed it, all practices have proceeded as scheduled. Who else? Mizzou? Ole Miss?
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LSU has had a lot of attrition. Farrell opting back in helps but the D line is a concern.
 
gps_3 said:
I think he is like Gus in that there is a high ceiling (the highest in Oregeron's case) but also a relatively low floor potential.
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Not as egotistical as Gus and not nearly the circus that Aubbie has with cooks in the kitchen, boosters, donors etc.

Just my opinion
 
My guess is that Corral is going to start at QB for Ole Miss. As with all new staffs, not having spring practice hurt Kiffin. I expect him to have the offense rolling by the middle of the season, but I’ve got my doubts about Week 1. He’s got a stable of RBs, a serviceable OL, and WRs with potential which hasn’t materialized yet. As for the D, you can probably just copy/paste my thoughts from the last 4 or 5 years. DL is garbage. LBs are average, and the secondary has major question marks. 5 wins max.
 
Grovehard said:
My guess is that Corral is going to start at QB for Ole Miss. As with all new staffs, not having spring practice hurt Kiffin. I expect him to have the offense rolling by the middle of the season, but I’ve got my doubts about Week 1. He’s got a stable of RBs, a serviceable OL, and WRs with potential which hasn’t materialized yet. As for the D, you can probably just copy/paste my thoughts from the last 4 or 5 years. DL is garbage. LBs are average, and the secondary has major question marks. 5 wins max.
Click to expand...
They’ve got to start getting D Line players

Period
 
twinkie13 said:
Not as egotistical as Gus and not nearly the circus that Aubbie has with cooks in the kitchen, boosters, donors etc.

Just my opinion
Click to expand...

I agree that LSU appears to have everyone pushing in the same direction, but I just feel like Ed will have ups and downs. Could be wrong, it’s happened before
 
Grovehard said:
You’re preaching to the choir. In 2014 Ole Miss had arguably the best defense in the country and it started up front. Since then they haven’t fielded a DL better than 10th or so in conference. Pitiful recruiting at that position.
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Man that was so long ago but I surely remember betting the TT opponent unders quite a bit in a variety of ways.
 
I thought Nix got hurt like a month ago? I guess it wasn't serious

So @gps_3 ...how do you see the QB position playing out this season?
 
gps_3 said:
I know we still have a whole week of games before the SEC gets underway, but I did my starting PRs this weekend and I'm ready to get to the matchups. Figure there will be some roster news this week as they move from fall camp to game week.

Games:

Alabama @ Mizzou
Florida @ Ole Miss
UGA @ Arkansas
Kentucky @ AU
Tennessee @ SCAR
Miss St @ LSU
Vandy @ aTm

I struggled forming the PRs because like most, I did very little research over the months when a season was very much up in the air, and with the number of opt-outs and possibilities of missed practices and games, I just didn't keep up with it all. So I'm very interested to watch these first games to see what we have.

While I am certainly biased, I think that Alabama is far better suited to navigate the current issues than most, and certainly moreso than Mizzou. I will be on Alabama in multiple ways in that game, unless of course there is a major outbreak or something.

I'm not sure I buy Florida. I mean, I can believe they are the 3rd best team in the conference, but I don't think they're all that close to UGA or Alabama. I think Lane can keep them pretty off balance, especially with Plumlee's running ability.

UGA can name their score against Arky. I think UGA has some issues, but they totally outclass the Hogs everywhere. Maybe Kirby doesn't run it up against a former employee? But Kirby is an asshole, so I wouldn't bet on it

Kentucky @ AU is the most interesting game on the slate to me. UK's OL will likely win the battle against AU's DL. How well the back 7 holds up for AU, which is a strength, will be the story. I'm not a fan of Bo Nix' game, and he has a brand new OL to operate in. Also will be interesting to see if Gus finally lets an OC do his own thing, or if Gus just can't help himself.

I think I'm buying Tennessee this year to make a jump. Not to compete for a title, but to be competitive in all of their games. Pruitt can recruit and he knows how to coach, it just remains to be seen if he can effectively lead the program. Tennessee always seems to make a late season run against a weak schedule, they won't be able to count on this season. Muschamp is starting his 8th straight season on the hot seat. Seems like they lost the few playmakers they had, but maybe I just don't know their situation very well off the top of my head

Miss St/LSU also has my interest. On the Miss St side, it's obvious why. Can't wait to see Leach in the SEC. I don't think anyone knows what to make of LSU. They're basically on probation this season with the number of scholarship players they have, but those players are pretty awesome. I imagine the hangover from last season will be a thing, just don't know how much of a thing. I feel like Orgeron is going to be a roller coaster for the rest of his tenure

Vandy is going to be awful. aTm will be somewhere between average and pretty good. Mond is in his 9th and final year of eligibility I think.
Click to expand...
That Mond statement is priceless. I'm still laughing. Good One
 
twinkie13 said:
Yea I thought he tore his ACL?
Click to expand...

Apparently it was just a rumor. I think AU is committed to Nix, I just don't think he's special. Being the son of one of their legends will make any change tough, so I expect him to be the starter until he leaves or for real gets injured. I've been guilty of underestimating AU players for most of my life, so I'm sure he'll end up being a Heisman finalist
 
Week One odds:

Tennessee (-3/48) @ SCAR
Alabama (-28/55.5) @ Mizzou
Florida (-14.5/60) @ Ole Miss
UGA (-26/51.5) @ Arkansas
LSU (-17/54.5) vs Miss St
aTm (-29.5/49) vs Vandy
AU (-8/47.5) vs Kentucky

My PR lines (does not take into account any absences)

Tenn -0.5
Alabama -22
Florida -13
UGA -27
LSU -17
aTm -27.5
AU -10

I use my PR as mainly a starting point and to see if there's something way off. Nothing jumps out to me this week as being way off, so will have to look at each game the best I can and see if I find an edge. I mentioned earlier that I will be on Alabama in a variety of ways, but I can't see myself laying 4 TDs on the road, missing players or not. Will probably look to be on some 1H bets there. I'm sure I'll talk myself into Kentucky based on their line play vs AU's. I'm guessing that will be a popular play, and AU always seems to find a way in these games. Not a lot of betting interest in the other games, so many unknowns I don't feel comfortable laying big numbers on the road with Florida and UGA.
 
Looks like Mizzou will have 5 of the 12 players back that were previously thought to miss this week's game. Alabama is testing everyone every day, so can probably feel better about not missing a ton of guys all at once due to contact tracing, not sure how many other schools are testing with that frequency. Also saw yesterday that the SEC will be implementing the same system the NFL is using as far as monitoring players and personnel. So hopefully there will be a minimum number of players missing time due to covid
 
interested to see Leach in the middle of the toughest division with the 2yd crossing route offense.
SEC usually has CB that will punch you in the mouth unlike the BevoXII with their soft play.
I've played LSU v Messy for about 20 yrs, it's flattened over the last few but had a good run in 90's
lotta points tho. This will be a good game for what 's to come .

Hope LSU crushes
 
pressitup said:
interested to see Leach in the middle of the toughest division with the 2yd crossing route offense.
SEC usually has CB that will punch you in the mouth unlike the BevoXII with their soft play.
I've played LSU v Messy for about 20 yrs, it's flattened over the last few but had a good run in 90's
lotta points tho. This will be a good game for what 's to come .

Hope LSU crushes
Click to expand...

LSU-Miss St feels like one of those games where a lot of people will talk themselves into backing Leach, and then LSU is up like 35-0 midway through the 2nd quarter
 
gps_3 said:
LSU-Miss St feels like one of those games where a lot of people will talk themselves into backing Leach, and then LSU is up like 35-0 midway through the 2nd quarter
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm an Ole Miss guy and all, but if you think Leach is going to work out in the SEC then I think you have to account for his annual bedshittings against Washington when he was at Wazzou. Lake laid out the blueprint to stop Leach's offense, but I don't think many P12 programs had the horses to replicate it. Does LSU have the horses? I think so....
 
Grovehard said:
Yeah, I'm an Ole Miss guy and all, but if you think Leach is going to work out in the SEC then I think you have to account for his annual bedshittings against Washington when he was at Wazzou. Lake laid out the blueprint to stop Leach's offense, but I don't think many P12 programs had the horses to replicate it. Does LSU have the horses? I think so....
Click to expand...

I would feel much more comfortable backing Joey Freshwater this weekend than the Pirate
 
Agree with the Kentucky thoughts. I really have no idea what to expect from the home team but looking forward to seeing Arik Gilbert.
 
Grovehard said:
Yeah, I'm an Ole Miss guy and all, but if you think Leach is going to work out in the SEC then I think you have to account for his annual bedshittings against Washington when he was at Wazzou. Lake laid out the blueprint to stop Leach's offense, but I don't think many P12 programs had the horses to replicate it. Does LSU have the horses? I think so....
Click to expand...
Lotta points, light crowd. That’s the one issue. Day game in the Red Stick with no fans.

I expect trickeration from Messy, either way
 
gps_3 said:
Yes, but Vandy is really bad. Aggies have Alabama on deck, so no sense in keeping starters in any longer than necessary, so it's a stay away game for me
Click to expand...
Vandy is really bad. All SEC schedule does them zero favors
 
twinkie13 said:
Lotta points, light crowd. That’s the one issue. Day game in the Red Stick with no fans.

I expect trickeration from Messy, either way
Click to expand...

Yeah it's a stay away for me, but I lean Tigers. I do think State might have the better QB and RB, but I don't know how much better or if that's enough. As for atmosphere, I think LSU feeds off their home crowd more than any other team in the country. That's obviously hard to quantify but I don't think Death Valley on a Saturday night (day in this case) will be worth much this year.
 
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Grovehard said:
Yeah it's a stay away for me, but I lean Tigers. I do think State might have the better QB and RB, but I don't know how much better or if that's enough. As for atmosphere, I think LSU feeds off their home crowd more than any other team in the country. That's obviously hard to quantify but I think don't think Death Valley on a Saturday night (day in this case) will be worth much this year.
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No way they better RB in my opinion, but yea agree
 
Press let’s keep it real tho. The money is insane. The rest of the country might not know it, but the SEC does.
It’s time. In the big boy league now. Facilities maybe top 2?! Number 1 even?

Jimbo needs to show something. And not a 7 OT win. Texas has enough players to go around, and Texas is doing y’all favors right now but enough is enough.
West is hard enough, but if/when College Station gets it going it’s gonna be a real deal problem
 
Jimbo got his title. He didn’t go to AnM to win or for the competition. He got paid and I can’t blame him. 7OT win my ass. That was highway robbery. Indisputable. Kiss our Natty Jimbo!
 
Kentucky, Ole Miss, Bama, and heavy lean to Tennessee. That appears to be the consensus guesses for a wild 11 week 10 game post Covid stretch? Fingers crossed of course.

Comfortable with assuming Bama 1st half should be fine up to 20. Also like the Over 30. It’s possible both come up short if a reduced risk approach is taken. But all signs point to a 4TD+ performance for the Tide in the opening half.
This approach cost me early last year but let’s hope they’re as ready to go as we are to see it.
TOOK BAMA -15.5, Over 30 1st H, BAMA-27.5

Nix had flashes here and there but wasn’t very accurate IMO and without Brown to stymy the opposition I can see why the support for the Cats is at that oh shit everyone’s on them level. Refusal to act has cost me line value but I may just go SU if I can’t get +7 or more. Very undecided. Things don’t feel right. Barners and Gus likely hungry.

Ole Miss gonna keep it close with Florida they say. Huh? Based on Joey cheesedick Freshwater? I don’t get it here either. I’m surely missing some inside info. Maybe I’ll find it before kickoff. Florida has Natty aspirations and I believe they have the talent and coaching to be in every game they face.
They certainly aren’t looking to squeek by the LandSharks. Trask is willing and able to give a slowly improving OM D fits as are their skillsters.
Thats all for now. Unknowns a plenty. Enjoy the ride.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Kentucky, Ole Miss, Bama, and heavy lean to Tennessee. That appears to be the consensus guesses for a wild 11 week 10 game post Covid stretch? Fingers crossed of course.

Comfortable with assuming Bama 1st half should be fine up to 20. Also like the Over 30. It’s possible both come up short if a reduced risk approach is taken. But all signs point to a 4TD+ performance for the Tide in the opening half.
This approach cost me early last year but let’s hope they’re as ready to go as we are to see it.
TOOK BAMA -15.5, Over 30 1st H, BAMA-27.5

Nix had flashes here and there but wasn’t very accurate IMO and without Brown to stymy the opposition I can see why the support for the Cats is at that oh shit everyone’s on them level. Refusal to act has cost me line value but I may just go SU if I can’t get +7 or more. Very undecided. Things don’t feel right. Barners and Gus likely hungry.

Ole Miss gonna keep it close with Florida they say. Huh? Based on Joey cheesedick Freshwater? I don’t get it here either. I’m surely missing some inside info. Maybe I’ll find it before kickoff. Florida has Natty aspirations and I believe they have the talent and coaching to be in every game they face.
They certainly aren’t looking to squeek by the LandSharks. Trask is willing and able to give a slowly improving OM D fits as are their skillsters.
Thats all for now. Unknowns a plenty. Enjoy the ride.
Click to expand...


Took the same Bama plays myself.....
1H -17 n Over 30
-28 n Over 56
Waiting for 1quarter lines and TT too.....
BOL won’t let me If Bet Or Parlay with Bama game......smh......

Remember last year where the kicking game cost me 1st quarter and 1st half plays too with Bama...

Roll Tide!!!!!!
 
If ol piss is competitive at all I think that game flies over the total. Hate that it a early kick tho.
 
Can one ya’ll tell me how the rb depth chart will go with uga and Bama. Like who will get the second half carries once those games are blowouts and backups in?
 
I didn’t understand much back then. But I know those no good rotten Aggies were dumb as frick and ALWAYS seem to destroy my team the first game of the season. I have not forgotten.
Funny thing is I haven’t heard any of those corny jokes in years. That lets me know who’s in Who’s head at least for the time being. Care to expound on the knee down OT theft. Umpteen reviews all in your favor and highly debatable. Enjoy that win until you earn a real one. Could be this year. Could be 2030. That’s what makes this fun.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
I didn’t understand much back then. But I know those no good rotten Aggies were dumb as frick and ALWAYS seem to destroy my team the first game of the season. I have not forgotten.
Funny thing is I haven’t heard any of those corny jokes in years. That lets me know who’s in Who’s head at least for the time being. Care to expound on the knee down OT theft. Umpteen reviews all in your favor and highly debatable. Enjoy that win until you earn a real one. Could be this year. Could be 2030. That’s what makes this fun.
Click to expand...
our qb was dumb enough to drop his knee, no one argues that.
you had to stop one play for the win
which is worst
 
Huh. When you fall down the play is over. True story. Newsflash: I’m a Degen. So that play happens I switch to another channel where I have action and bask in the win and count my shekels etc. 30 minutes to an hour later I Get a text from a lifelong friend about the atrocious review (in an OT period). I was confused as hell. Turned back to the channel and was mindblown. So live I missed a whole lot of plays that never should’ve occurred. A win is a win is a win. I just remember that the Commish was there and I’m fairly certain the insane targeting on Devin White weeks earlier brought him much rage from the Tiger faithful. I’ll admit to this day I have my own narrative scribbled down in my mind. I’m that guy I own it. Nonetheless we can discuss last year whenever you like. Lol. Good luck tomorrow and the rest of the year in all areas of life. Until we meet again.
 
PNGFROM2003 said:
Huh. When you fall down the play is over. True story. Newsflash: I’m a Degen. So that play happens I switch to another channel where I have action and bask in the win and count my shekels etc. 30 minutes to an hour later I Get a text from a lifelong friend about the atrocious review (in an OT period). I was confused as hell. Turned back to the channel and was mindblown. So live I missed a whole lot of plays that never should’ve occurred. A win is a win is a win. I just remember that the Commish was there and I’m fairly certain the insane targeting on Devin White weeks earlier brought him much rage from the Tiger faithful. I’ll admit to this day I have my own narrative scribbled down in my mind. I’m that guy I own it. Nonetheless we can discuss last year whenever you like. Lol. Good luck tomorrow and the rest of the year in all areas of life. Until we meet again.
Click to expand...
im glad you feel better if you crush those poor aggies
I have liked every SEC team -bama
alwys liked that style of football
I thought the move was ambitious but better than being in the bevo12.
gl hope u win west , if we dont
 
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