My first thought on the total in Tuscaloosa was that it was an overreaction to Mac Jones at QB, but with rain in the forecast, I may consider the under. First, while he's certainly not Tua, Mac Jones isn't a walk on. He's been in the program for 3 years, he was recruited by multiple P5 teams, and has shown flashes of ability at times. With the WR we have, I could see him putting points on the board. To compare him to another Alabama QB, I think he's a more talented version of Greg McElroy. A few things that keep off the over other than rain and Mac Jones: it hasn't been reported widely outside of the Alabama beat, but the run game and the defense have shown some real improvements the last few games. I think we've decided on a starting 5 on the OL finally, and it has paid off as Najee has back to back 100+ yard games. On the defense, the freshmen LBs are starting to make some plays and appear to be playing faster. There will no doubt be mistakes moving forward, but they don't appear to be as lost as they were against South Carolina and Ole Miss. The biggest boost on defense has been Terrell Lewis making an impact. He looks like a top 10 pick in pads, but until aTm, he had been mostly a non-factor on the field. He now leads the SEC in sacks and has been a noticeable presence throughout the last 2 games. Now, this isn't to say that this is 2012 OL and defense, but it is much improved since September. I don't think Arkansas poses much of a threat in this game, so I could see us playing fairly vanilla with a lot of high percentage throws and really leaning on the run game, eating up clock. I doubt they are going to ask Mac to throw it downfield or run RPO all game, though I do expect some play action downfield attempts. Ark put 31 on Alabama last season, and Saban has mentioned it a couple times this week already, so I know the defense will be focused. To me, this game feels like a 38-7, 42-10 type game. If Alabama isn't going to score 50+, I think it may be difficult for them to cover, so Arkansas + the points and under the total feel like the safest bets to me.
