SEC Week 9 Discussion

Timh said:
Guy that really caught my attention Saturday with some great special team work http://rolltide.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=3309
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He did really flash on kick coverage. Got a text from a friend in the stadium after that hit on Speedy Noil and he said it was the hardest hit he's ever seen. Gary Danielson made a good point that we saw Reuben Foster flash on kick coverage just like this a few years back and now he is the best MLB in CFB. Wilson and that LB class he came in with were awesome. Hope you enjoyed the game!
 
Grind_4_Mine said:


It was wild the way Mizzou players were dropping in that one, particularly on the defensive side of the ball as you alluded to. Really appreciate your thoughts on these games on a weekly basis, along with the others who contribute in this thread. GL this week!
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You're welcome, happy to contribute. Work getting in the way of the fun stuff this week but will try to have thoughts up in next few days at least on the games I've played if not the conf as a whole.
 
CrimsonK said:
He did really flash on kick coverage. Got a text from a friend in the stadium after that hit on Speedy Noil and he said it was the hardest hit he's ever seen. Gary Danielson made a good point that we saw Reuben Foster flash on kick coverage just like this a few years back and now he is the best MLB in CFB. Wilson and that LB class he came in with were awesome. Hope you enjoyed the game!
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I had a blast up in Tuscaloosa over the weekend, down at Orange Beach now trying to catch some fish. What are your thoughts on FSU defense being able to stop Clemson this week? Do you think they have it in them to rise up?
 
What you trying to catch in the OB Timh? And where?
In the GOM, jut go drop bottom and get red snapper.....not much of a challenge, and boring to catch BUT sooooo good to eat.
Man you weren't far from Sportman's Paradise pal and some of the best fishing in the world....
GL
 
twinkie13 said:
What you trying to catch in the OB Timh? And where?
In the GOM, jut go drop bottom and get red snapper.....not much of a challenge, and boring to catch BUT sooooo good to eat.
Man you weren't far from Sportman's Paradise pal and some of the best fishing in the world....
GL
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Two legged does lol...
 
Timh said:
I had a blast up in Tuscaloosa over the weekend, down at Orange Beach now trying to catch some fish. What are your thoughts on FSU defense being able to stop Clemson this week? Do you think they have it in them to rise up?
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I'm still working through that game and trying to get a better feel. I mentioned it before FSU played Miami but they have played some serious offenses this season, especially early on, and also had to deal with losing Derwin James before the Ville game and Nate Andrews since. Just tough stuff to deal with the secondary attrition while facing Kelly, Jackson, Flowers and Trubisky. Defense has looked lot better last couple weeks getting class relief against Miami and Wake. They don't get much relief here but I'm not totally on board with believing in the Clemson offense. Their run game has just taken a huge step back this year - Gallman has been a shell of himself from last year and Watson isnt running it near as much as he was last year - his heaviest load has been 14 carries against Ville which was also his most productive but to frame that he carried it 14+ times in 8 of their games last season including 20+ in their final 4 games to go with Gallman's avg of 22 carries per game that final stretch. Their offense is just a slightly above average group when they aren't running it well - and my goodness without Mike Williams at WR this year I think it's safe to assume they would be below average when/if the run game isn't humming along. They've really only run it well in two games - Ville and BC - consequently those were their only above average offensive performances. Their ypp has been 5.48 NC ST, 8.47 BC, 8.53 Ville, 5.02 GT, 4.67 Troy, 5.05 Auburn - the avg undadjusted ypp for CFB teams is 5.50 (think Iowa and Illinois..) - so they will go as far as their run game will take them and if made one dimensional they are just meh. FSU adjusted rush defense is top 25 and has been great except for two games Ville and USF where they were obliterated for 300 ypg and 7 rush TD. Coming off two super efforts against Miami and Wake who ran 60 times for 130 yards. Looking back at the game from last year Clemson was able to run it on them more effectively than anyone else and by a large margin - 42 for 215 (5.12) compared tot heir season avg allowed of 3.83. It was still a 13-13 game in Death Valley heading into the 4Q before Clemson pulled away late and won 23-13. Keep in mind McGuire was the QB for FSU so anytime I get concerned about taking Francois versus Watson that gives me great comfort lol. FSU 12-3 last 15 against Clemson at Doak and I had this game circled pre season as the game Clemson loses. I'll keep working on this one but I still feel FSU is a decent side look and under too - pace should be fine - Clemson fast and FSU slow.
 
CK.....I love you bro. And I feel your struggles.
But fuck me running......you win a typing award?! Damn....how?!?!!

I know the site appreciates you back like I do lol....
 
VT/Pitt UNDER 64

I mentioned it in my blurb with my numbers but Pitt games have just been full of silly scoring that doesn't match outputs. I'll just touch on their last game because I don't have time to go through all of them. They beat UVA 45-31 - there were exactly 700 yards of offense in that game and 141 plays run. That is the recipe to cash a total in the 60's the overwhelming majority of the time and that is just one of many games Pitt has been involved in that has followed that pattern. So I suppose one could say that it's bound to happen again but I'm not one of those people I lean more towards regression happening. Pace should be below average and we should get a ton of running plays. From a matchup standpoint, the VT defense matches up extremely well against the Pitt offense. Pitt relies heavily on the ground game and VT is about as good as anybody in the country in stopping it - they give up 105 ypg and less than 3 ypc. They aren't easy to pass on either as they are top 25 statistically in adjusted pass defense. Basically, VT is back to playing elite defense of yesteryear. If Pitt can't run, and i don't think they will be able to, then I look at their passing attack and I don't see a whole lot to like. They pass for less than 200 ypg and rank 114th in adjusted pass offense. They rely entirely on big plays and VT is one of the better teams in CFB in limiting explosive plays - they gave up a lot more than normal against Miami but were able to stiffen when needed and kept them to just 16 points. The Pitt rush defense is their strength only giving up 103 ypg and are top 30 in adjusted numbers there but it's their pass defense that is abysmal - they rank right around 125th nationally defending the pass and that is even more baffling considering how well Pitt gets after the QB. That is my biggest concern in the game and VT's biggest advantage - they are an above average pass offense and while I don't see them getting out of balance and just throwing it all over the yard, as an OC, I would certainly try to take advantage of that in this game. Last year's game was a slobberknocker - 17-13 Pitt win and VT was held to 100 total yards and 9 rushing yards. Pittsburgh has been unkind to VT as they haven't won their since 1999 and Pitt won on a Thursday two years ago 21-16. I love Foster against pro style offense like this and I don't imagine their straightforward run game couple with all the little end around stuff they run will pose a lot of problems for VT. I think VT wins an ugly game 26-20.
 
CrimsonK said:
VT/Pitt UNDER 64

I mentioned it in my blurb with my numbers but Pitt games have just been full of silly scoring that doesn't match outputs. I'll just touch on their last game because I don't have time to go through all of them. They beat UVA 45-31 - there were exactly 700 yards of offense in that game and 141 plays run. That is the recipe to cash a total in the 60's the overwhelming majority of the time and that is just one of many games Pitt has been involved in that has followed that pattern. So I suppose one could say that it's bound to happen again but I'm not one of those people I lean more towards regression happening. Pace should be below average and we should get a ton of running plays. From a matchup standpoint, the VT defense matches up extremely well against the Pitt offense. Pitt relies heavily on the ground game and VT is about as good as anybody in the country in stopping it - they give up 105 ypg and less than 3 ypc. They aren't easy to pass on either as they are top 25 statistically in adjusted pass defense. Basically, VT is back to playing elite defense of yesteryear. If Pitt can't run, and i don't think they will be able to, then I look at their passing attack and I don't see a whole lot to like. They pass for less than 200 ypg and rank 114th in adjusted pass offense. They rely entirely on big plays and VT is one of the better teams in CFB in limiting explosive plays - they gave up a lot more than normal against Miami but were able to stiffen when needed and kept them to just 16 points. The Pitt rush defense is their strength only giving up 103 ypg and are top 30 in adjusted numbers there but it's their pass defense that is abysmal - they rank right around 125th nationally defending the pass and that is even more baffling considering how well Pitt gets after the QB. That is my biggest concern in the game and VT's biggest advantage - they are an above average pass offense and while I don't see them getting out of balance and just throwing it all over the yard, as an OC, I would certainly try to take advantage of that in this game. Last year's game was a slobberknocker - 17-13 Pitt win and VT was held to 100 total yards and 9 rushing yards. Pittsburgh has been unkind to VT as they haven't won their since 1999 and Pitt won on a Thursday two years ago 21-16. I love Foster against pro style offense like this and I don't imagine their straightforward run game couple with all the little end around stuff they run will pose a lot of problems for VT. I think VT wins an ugly game 26-20.
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Local has this at 56...has it moved that much since this morning?
 
This morning was just when I had the chance to give my thoughts. When I bet it and posted it was Monday - it has been 56 all day it looks like
 
Paul Finebaum ‏@finebaum · 12m12 minutes ago
LSU Senior DB Dwayne Thomas says the Tigers will “dominate” Alabama next Saturday in Baton Rouge. #BAMAvsLSU
 
Bulletin board material is typically a non-issue but you never know....and why the hell even go down that path.

Will never forget the below from Jordan Lynch a couple years back when NIU played FSU in the Orange Bowl. Things didn't go well for Jordan in the game.

They're fast, they're physical, but they haven't seen anything like our offense. We play an uptempo pace. We play really fast, a lot of shifting, guys going back and forth each way. It causes a lot of confusion. We plan on wearing them down. In the fourth quarter, we plan to have them on their knees-and then just keep pounding away.
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gps_3 said:
Paul Finebaum ‏@finebaum · 12m12 minutes ago
LSU Senior DB Dwayne Thomas says the Tigers will “dominate” Alabama next Saturday in Baton Rouge. #BAMAvsLSU
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I saw this

idk....whatever it takes I guess. why he opens his mouth, not sure tho lol
 
twinkie13 said:
Think Lane would go to LSU if O got the job?
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I
still think Kiffin takes over for Taggert at USF next year and if LSU doesn't beat Bama then Coach O may take a job like Fresno St as HC. If LSU beats Bama Coach O gets signed by LSU that Sunday. I know you will like this Twink, I put a few shekels on Fournette to win Heisman today at 50/1. I would feel pretty good with two tickets on Lamar Jackson at 60/1 and Lenny at 50/1 if they both get the invite to NY.
 
BC/NC State Under 49.5

I mentioned it last week but here are BC's scoring outputs since 2014 in conf play 20, 14, 13, 17, 31, 19, 28, 0, 7, 0, 17, 14, 10, 8, 17, 14, 0, 10, 20. Don't expect much from them this week with Towles nursing a hammy at QB. He was one of their lone bright spots against Cuse as he ripped off a 75 yard run and thats good because his 4/14 passing for 45 yards against the vaunted orange crush defense left a bit to be desired and his status is still sort of up in the air as well is Hillman their best RB. NC State has RB issues of their own as Matt Dayes is dinged up. Should be slow moving game with the NC St offense being poor enough not to abuse the BC defense too badly for likely not being able to sustain a bunch of drives. 24-10

Duke/GT UNDER 48.5

Last year Duke held GT to 2.9 ypc and 1 TD with a long of 24 in a game that managed 54 points on less than 600 total yards offense on 143 plays. They already crushed the Army option this year holding them to 214 total yards in the hurricane game and last year they held them to even less than that, 168 yards on 55 plays. All of that to say they have a great methodology to stop the option and have the added benefit of seeing it twice in less than a month. I'm not a fan of the conservative Duke offense and their inability to stretch the field vertically and I believe the extra time for Roof to prep to the WR screen game is an added benefit. Market disagrees with me so far as 50/50' are available but I feel pretty good about this one staying low scoring - 20-17 GT

Miami/ND OVER 57.5

Miami gets class relief here for their offense all the while their body count on defense continues to rise. The Miami high powered offense we saw to start the year has petered out the past 3 averaging just 16 in that stretch. Good news is they get a horrid ND defense here that can only stop a hapless Stanford team or NC State in a hurricane. Prior to those messes, they scored 47, 39, 28, 35, 50 while allowing 50, 10, 36, 38, 33. Through September I don't think I saw a more impressive QB than Kizer and while it's entirely possible he has just regressed big time and this is a ticking time bomb I'm betting that's not the case it's just a what have ya done for me lately and the situations have led to us getting a nice number on the total this week. Pace should be above average and game should feature plenty of passing. Miami is super aggressive on defense and while that can hurt team's efficicency it can also lead to chunk plays and or opportunities to score on defense. Think this game could actually be pretty fun to watch, unlike the UGA/UF game - I hope. 38-35 Catholics
 
I can't remember an assistant ever taking job where it wasn't mutually agreed upon they needed to leave that would parallel Kiff going to LSU as OC. HC sure, OC no I don't see that.
 
New Mexico State/aTm OVER 68

Should be lot of snaps in this game, two of the faster moving teams in CFB. NMSU has one of the worst defenses in CFB but they can score a little bit. They actually hung 42 on Kentucky (and gave up 62) earlier this year and from that point forward their offense has been pretty good - they've averaged 475 ypg. I probably need 14 from them in this game to feel good, anything less and things get dicey and anything more is icing on the cake. I don;t know if there is a bigger gulf in going from seeing the Bama defense to this one - things should be considerably easier for aTm and I think the offense really has a get well game. my concern was the Ags taking foot off gas and shortening game but it looks like at least from presser notes they are looking forward to repping some of the younger guys on both sides of the ball. Not a whole lot more to say about the game - 59-20

UGA/UF UNDER 44

UF defense elite and offense below average. UGA offense average and defense is good. Deficiencies in the UGA defense are more defending the pass and I haven't seen enough from the UF offense against good competition that leads me to believe they can exploit that and it's really not a terrible weakness either, they are just worse against pass and top 15 in adjusted rush defense. Last season UF won 27-3 as 1.5 point favorites and it stayed under the total of 49. There were only 133 plays run, 27 first downs and 636 yards of offense. Florida scored on a fumble return, a 66 yard pass to AC and a 2 play/5 yard drive to go up 20-0 at half. There was a UGA FG and a nice Gator drive for TD to round out the game. I've mentioned it numerous times but the UGA OL is really bad and here they play one of the better DL in the country that have the luxury of having one of the most dominant secondaries in the country behind them. Eason hasn't shown he can consistently find the depth and more importantly the touch to get his undersized and stone handed group of WR the ball. Interesting chess match with Nuss/McElwain on offense and Smart on defense as they shared several years together on the Bama staff. I've been told UGA is going to run almost exclusively out of the shotgun in order to mask their OL deficiency and give Eason enough time to try to do some quick hitters to get the WR the ball and make a guy miss. Pace should move about like a snail. UF just a much better team than a UGA team that needs several more years before there can be relevant. 20-10 Gators

Mizzou -4

This is from a Bill C summary that shows pretty well how weird Mizzou's last game was:

"A large success rate advantage almost always results in a win. Mizzou’s success rate on Saturday was 51%, and MTSU’s was 37%. Teams with between a 10-15% success rate margin have won 89% of games this year with an average winning margin of about 15.8 points. As efficiency is the No. 1 deciding factor in games, this reflects very well on Missouri. Add to that a decent-sized advantage in terms of finishing drives (6.4 points per scoring opportunity to 4.6), and you’ve got an almost guaranteed win.

Basically, these stats suggest that a lot of other things had to go wrong for the Tigers to lose this game.

A lot of other things went wrong. Turnovers, for one. Mizzou handed MTSU a field goal with one fumble and took likely points off of their own scoring ledger by fumbling into the end zone later. And a bad punt snap handed MTSU a touchdown as well. That’s three plays and a 13- to 17-point swing. That’s both deadly and hard to replicate."

So here we have a Mizzou team that couldn't convert on scoring opps against WVU in the opener (which now looks like a really good loss) lost on a last second pass to UGA, were dominated by LSU and UF as was to be expected and then the flukish loss to MTSU. Yes, they are 2-5, but their S&P+ ranking actually improved after that last loss and they rank 40th nationally. This is a team that has flat out been unlucky and some recency bias keep this line too short. Keep in mind, this is a Kentucky team that is 1-9 their last 10 on the road in the SEC and here they are lined where they pretty much need to win. I don't buy it. Both teams are going to be able to run all over one another, I have very little doubt about that. Stoops took some time to spend more time with his defense earlier this year and it paid dividends and reading up on Mizzou this week Odom (a great DC) is pretty much taking over the game planning this game for the first time and they'll have enough time to gameplan without having the services of Scherer at LB who they lost early last game and never could recover from. Drew Lock has been frustrating at times but I trust him and his WR a lot more than I do Johnson for UK to make plays through the air when they have to. This is too big an over reaction from last week and a good time to buy low on Mizzou. 37-27


 
CrimsonK said:
He did really flash on kick coverage. Got a text from a friend in the stadium after that hit on Speedy Noil and he said it was the hardest hit he's ever seen. Gary Danielson made a good point that we saw Reuben Foster flash on kick coverage just like this a few years back and now he is the best MLB in CFB. Wilson and that LB class he came in with were awesome. Hope you enjoyed the game!
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laughable that the TAMU guy got ejected throwing a block and 30 didn't on that play, but i'm not interested in claiming Bama gets more calls than anybody nope
 
CrimsonK said:
I'm still working through that game and trying to get a better feel. I mentioned it before FSU played Miami but they have played some serious offenses this season, especially early on, and also had to deal with losing Derwin James before the Ville game and Nate Andrews since. Just tough stuff to deal with the secondary attrition while facing Kelly, Jackson, Flowers and Trubisky. Defense has looked lot better last couple weeks getting class relief against Miami and Wake. They don't get much relief here but I'm not totally on board with believing in the Clemson offense. Their run game has just taken a huge step back this year - Gallman has been a shell of himself from last year and Watson isnt running it near as much as he was last year - his heaviest load has been 14 carries against Ville which was also his most productive but to frame that he carried it 14+ times in 8 of their games last season including 20+ in their final 4 games to go with Gallman's avg of 22 carries per game that final stretch. Their offense is just a slightly above average group when they aren't running it well - and my goodness without Mike Williams at WR this year I think it's safe to assume they would be below average when/if the run game isn't humming along. They've really only run it well in two games - Ville and BC - consequently those were their only above average offensive performances. Their ypp has been 5.48 NC ST, 8.47 BC, 8.53 Ville, 5.02 GT, 4.67 Troy, 5.05 Auburn - the avg undadjusted ypp for CFB teams is 5.50 (think Iowa and Illinois..) - so they will go as far as their run game will take them and if made one dimensional they are just meh. FSU adjusted rush defense is top 25 and has been great except for two games Ville and USF where they were obliterated for 300 ypg and 7 rush TD. Coming off two super efforts against Miami and Wake who ran 60 times for 130 yards. Looking back at the game from last year Clemson was able to run it on them more effectively than anyone else and by a large margin - 42 for 215 (5.12) compared tot heir season avg allowed of 3.83. It was still a 13-13 game in Death Valley heading into the 4Q before Clemson pulled away late and won 23-13. Keep in mind McGuire was the QB for FSU so anytime I get concerned about taking Francois versus Watson that gives me great comfort lol. FSU 12-3 last 15 against Clemson at Doak and I had this game circled pre season as the game Clemson loses. I'll keep working on this one but I still feel FSU is a decent side look and under too - pace should be fine - Clemson fast and FSU slow.
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like this side, too
 
GWarner27 said:
laughable that the TAMU guy got ejected throwing a block and 30 didn't on that play, but i'm not interested in claiming Bama gets more calls than anybody nope
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I think it highlights the huge subjectivity when it comes to the targeting rule. Every week there are games where the rule is called or not called that leave me scratching my head.
 
Michigan/Michigan State UNDER 56

First off, the concern is that there are many years of pent up aggression here for the Michigan program. We saw to a certain extent what unleashing the beast can look like in a similar position when Washington took it to Oregon 70-21 after a decade of disappointment. The good news is this isnt the Washington offense nor the Ducks defense. I do trust Dantonio to have his guys as ready to play as he can with the talent disparity that will be on the field. In a lot of ways, this kinda reminds me of the Bama/MSU game in which the Tide won 38-0. I really don't think Sparty should do much scoring here and I trust their defense to elevate their play more against just an okay Michigan offense than I do their offense to find an identity against arguably the nation's best defense. I only have the past 10 years numbers in front of me but there hasn't been more than 56 scored in that stretch - I think some rivalries stay true to their identities and this is one that just screams B1G football. Michigan hasn't allowed a team to gain 200 yards or score more than 10 since September and that sounds about right here. Lotta running clock in this one. 34-10

Washington/Utah UNDER 52.5


Game of the year so far in the Pac 12 with both respective division leaders squaring up in the trickiest road venue in all of football. I think the Utes just ugly up this game as much as possible. They are decimated with injury at the skill position, so much so they had a guy come out of retirement and start at RB last week, and this is not the defense you want to face with your MASH unit. The good news is the Ute defense will really only be the second decent defense that UW has seen all year, the other being Stanford where they scored 44 but that was extremely deceptive as they only had 424 yards offense. Their outputs havent matched what I believe their true production should be all year, they average 49 ppg but less than 500 yards offense which paints the picture pretty well. The Utes have shown some vulnerabilities in the secondary and that is my biggest area of concern as the Huskies have several pass catchers that can make you pay in chunks and a very accurate and confident QB to boot. I don't like the Ute offense at all and I think their only impressive offensive performance was last week against what I believe(d) was a good UCLA defense that they lit up. Different test here against a Top 3 secondary and outstanding front 7. Something about playing at this place just helps inferior Ute teams stay in games and I think this will be a relatively close one. It should be a slow moving game and as long as D/ST scores are avoided I think it stays in the 40's - 26-17 Huskies



Tulsa/Memphis OVER 70


Here are two teams that are just gonna play fast. There are gonna be tons of possessions and two potent offenses against two defenses that I don't like near as much. This game is just about pace for me - 44-35

Oregon State +14.5



Oregon State backup impressed me last week against UW. I didn;t expect him to look nearly as good as he did - his stat line won't wow you but if you watch them play at all you can clearly see he is the most talented QB they have on roster and he just faced an elite defense coming off a bye with less than 1 week of first team reps. Things get easier this week being at home against Wazzou and a pass defense that is not full of future NFL players. The Wazzou defense as a whole is quietly the most under rated unit in CFB - this total opened 65.5, I made it 56.5 but for some reason I didn't bet it when I saw it at open and now I'm kicking myself but that's neither here nor there. The Cougs can run but prefer pass and the pass defense for the Beavs is actually incredible - they are top 5 in adjusted pass defense and adj pass defense ypp giving up less than 200 ypg. I really like Wazzou as a team and have won betting them couple times this year but I don't like them as a road favorite of this size - they were unlucky not to cover last week as Graham kicked a dumb FG that only mattered at sportsbooks but this is a really big number against a Beav team that is improving, matches up well and their last two at home feature a win over Cal and a 5 point loss to Utah in a typhoon. I think this game comes down to the end - 28-27 Wazzou
 
Marlo said:
name 1 other coach in college athletics who only suspends their star LB 1 half for getting arrested in a walmart with a gun
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I guess my question is, why on earth would someone be suspended for having a gun? The notion is patently absurd.
 
Timh said:
I had a blast up in Tuscaloosa over the weekend, down at Orange Beach now trying to catch some fish. What are your thoughts on FSU defense being able to stop Clemson this week? Do you think they have it in them to rise up?
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I'm down the road from Orange Beach. We should enjoy a refreshing beverage together while you're down here.
 
Engineer said:
Main question for me re: Ole Miss is what kind of effort can we reasonably expect here? Not much left to play for, right?

Found this article on the subject which is encouraging.
Hugh Freeze likes Ole Miss’ attentiveness ahead of Auburn


http://www.oxfordeagle.com/2016/10/26/hugh-freeze-likes-ole-miss-attentiveness-ahead-of-auburn/
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These are certainly two teams headed in opposite directions, but this is a game that matches Auburn's strength of running the ball versus Ole Miss' weakness in stopping the run. I think Auburn wins this game comfortably.
 
CrimsonK said:
I played Oregon State this AM +14.5. Made that one +9.5 and think Oregon State has decent chance to win SU. Several side leans (VT, Navy, UVA, FSU, Iowa St, ND, Duke, USCe, Utah) but not sure I'm gonna bet any of those yet. So far just got the UF GOY ticket, Mizzou -4 and Wazzou +14.5

ACC:
VT/Pitt UNDER 64
BC/NC State Under 49.5
Duke/GT UNDER 48.5
Miami/ND OVER 57.5

SEC:
New Mexico State/aTm OVER 68
UGA/UF UNDER 44
Mizzou -4

Other:
Michigan/Michigan State UNDER 56
Washington/Utah UNDER 52.5
Tulsa/Memphis OVER 70
Oregon State +14.5
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Good luck this week ck. You still like all your plays at the current numbers?
 
Last week was the first week where my number versus close really came into play on several games but I really place high value on shopping for numbers so it's kind of a hard question for me to answer so I'll just say it like this:

If I hadn't bet anything, at current numbers I would bet:

Duke U50.5
UF/UGA U 43.5
Mizzou -5.5
Miami/ND O58
Mich/Mich St U54
Wash/Utah U54
Oregon St +13

I think/hope the others win, but I probably wouldn't choose to bet them for full amount if I were making my plays today and that has a lot to do with me betting a lot based on variance between my numbers and market. I'm 0-2 past two weeks when beating the market by 10+ points which is almost laughable but still showing to have a nice edge at open just need some bounces to go right
 
CrimsonK said:
Last week was the first week where my number versus close really came into play on several games but I really place high value on shopping for numbers so it's kind of a hard question for me to answer so I'll just say it like this:

If I hadn't bet anything, at current numbers I would bet:

Duke U50.5
UF/UGA U 43.5
Mizzou -5.5
Miami/ND O58
Mich/Mich St U54
Wash/Utah U54
Oregon St +13

I think/hope the others win, but I probably wouldn't choose to bet them for full amount if I were making my plays today and that has a lot to do with me betting a lot based on variance between my numbers and market. I'm 0-2 past two weeks when beating the market by 10+ points which is almost laughable but still showing to have a nice edge at open just need some bounces to go right
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Thank man I really appreciate it. :shake2:
 
CrimsonK said:
Last week was the first week where my number versus close really came into play on several games but I really place high value on shopping for numbers so it's kind of a hard question for me to answer so I'll just say it like this:

If I hadn't bet anything, at current numbers I would bet:

Duke U50.5
UF/UGA U 43.5
Mizzou -5.5
Miami/ND O58
Mich/Mich St U54
Wash/Utah U54
Oregon St +13

I think/hope the others win, but I probably wouldn't choose to bet them for full amount if I were making my plays today and that has a lot to do with me betting a lot based on variance between my numbers and market. I'm 0-2 past two weeks when beating the market by 10+ points which is almost laughable but still showing to have a nice edge at open just need some bounces to go right
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Love your plays. Best of luck
 
CrimsonK said:
I'm still working through that game and trying to get a better feel. I mentioned it before FSU played Miami but they have played some serious offenses this season, especially early on, and also had to deal with losing Derwin James before the Ville game and Nate Andrews since. Just tough stuff to deal with the secondary attrition while facing Kelly, Jackson, Flowers and Trubisky. Defense has looked lot better last couple weeks getting class relief against Miami and Wake. They don't get much relief here but I'm not totally on board with believing in the Clemson offense. Their run game has just taken a huge step back this year - Gallman has been a shell of himself from last year and Watson isnt running it near as much as he was last year - his heaviest load has been 14 carries against Ville which was also his most productive but to frame that he carried it 14+ times in 8 of their games last season including 20+ in their final 4 games to go with Gallman's avg of 22 carries per game that final stretch. Their offense is just a slightly above average group when they aren't running it well - and my goodness without Mike Williams at WR this year I think it's safe to assume they would be below average when/if the run game isn't humming along. They've really only run it well in two games - Ville and BC - consequently those were their only above average offensive performances. Their ypp has been 5.48 NC ST, 8.47 BC, 8.53 Ville, 5.02 GT, 4.67 Troy, 5.05 Auburn - the avg undadjusted ypp for CFB teams is 5.50 (think Iowa and Illinois..) - so they will go as far as their run game will take them and if made one dimensional they are just meh. FSU adjusted rush defense is top 25 and has been great except for two games Ville and USF where they were obliterated for 300 ypg and 7 rush TD. Coming off two super efforts against Miami and Wake who ran 60 times for 130 yards. Looking back at the game from last year Clemson was able to run it on them more effectively than anyone else and by a large margin - 42 for 215 (5.12) compared tot heir season avg allowed of 3.83. It was still a 13-13 game in Death Valley heading into the 4Q before Clemson pulled away late and won 23-13. Keep in mind McGuire was the QB for FSU so anytime I get concerned about taking Francois versus Watson that gives me great comfort lol. FSU 12-3 last 15 against Clemson at Doak and I had this game circled pre season as the game Clemson loses. I'll keep working on this one but I still feel FSU is a decent side look and under too - pace should be fine - Clemson fast and FSU slow.
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Thanks CK, appreciate your thoughts very much. I haven't had time to work it this week like usual, now up in Evergreen visiting my cousin. BOL on the week, appreciate all your efforts and sharing.


Jimmydafreak said:
I'm down the road from Orange Beach. We should enjoy a refreshing beverage together while you're down here.
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Jimmy sorry I missed you, just wasn't on line much fishing and playing golf all week now up in Evergreen.
 
Never bet this before but was just watching Gameday and Corso seemed to really be digging Utah to win the game because of their special teams. These things are probably predetermined based on how absurd the odds are but had to put 10 bucks on Corso to pick Utah to win +5000- $10 returns $500!
 
CrimsonK said:
Never bet this before but was just watching Gameday and Corso seemed to really be digging Utah to win the game because of their special teams. These things are probably predetermined based on how absurd the odds are but had to put 10 bucks on Corso to pick Utah to win +5000- $10 returns $500!
Click to expand...

usually they only get one of the heads for him so if you know the mascots you can know the answer
 
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