SEC Week 8 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making

Saturday, October 23​

MATCHUPTIME (CT)NAT TVTICKETSLOCATION

Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Arkansas		11:00 AMSECNTickets as low as $45War Memorial Stadium , Little Rock, AR

LSU
#12Ole Miss		2:30 PMCBSTickets as low as $69Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS

Mississippi State
Vanderbilt		3:00 PMSECNTickets as low as $11Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, TN

Tennessee
#4Alabama		6:00 PMESPNTickets as low as $84Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL

South Carolina
#17Texas A&M		6:30 PMSECNTickets as low as $61Kyle Field, College Station, TX
 
PR lines:

Ole Miss -11.5
Miss St -23.5
Alabama -29
aTm -22

Pretty light slate this week
 
I took the 29 with Vols at open just because I thought it was an atrocious number. Will see how low this goes and buy back on Bama. I see 24.5 now
 
Grovehard said:
I cared far more about what happened during the game.
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right
just wondered, sometimes I like a coach to be confident , but being a long time sufferer of Battered Aggie Syndrome, I sometime want to say "hold on there seabiscuit"
especially vs the champ
 
pressitup said:
right
just wondered, sometimes I like a coach to be confident , but being a long time sufferer of Battered Aggie Syndrome, I sometime want to say "hold on there seabiscuit"
especially vs the champ
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He was definitely overconfident. I just don't think there was any relationship between his confidence and the game's outcome. Bama had much better players, particularly on the lines of scrimmage. Kiffin should have known that, and if he didn't that would be cause for concern, but I think he got caught up in the moment before one of the most hyped games of the season to that point.
 
Grovehard said:
He was definitely overconfident. I just don't think there was any relationship between his confidence and the game's outcome. Bama had much better players, particularly on the lines of scrimmage. Kiffin should have known that, and if he didn't that would be cause for concern, but I think he got caught up in the moment before one of the most hyped games of the season to that point.
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Didn't I hear that after he did that, he went up to Lebby and told him he had to score a bunch of points because he had done something stupid?
 
gps_3 said:
Didn't I hear that after he did that, he went up to Lebby and told him he had to score a bunch of points because he had done something stupid?
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Yeah he said he immediately got on the headset and told Lebby, “We need to score because I just said something really stupid” or something like that
 
A&M -21 @ home vs SCarolina. Shouldn't this be ez for A&M? They are off the next week. @home at night @ Kyle field. What am I missing?
 
Grovehard said:
Kiffin says Corral is doubtful. I'm very very skeptical of that claim.
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trying to figure out what the line says about his chances of playing? my initial thought was it pretty high if he not playing, but then i thought about how gators were laying more than this at lsu, so chance he doesnt play has to be factored into -9.5 at home doesnt it?
 
bones said:
A&M -21 @ home vs SCarolina. Shouldn't this be ez for A&M? They are off the next week. @home at night @ Kyle field. What am I missing?
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before last week nothing appeared easy for the aggies,, maybe they turned the corner/figured things out offensively before bama and it just gonna keep going? i still have a hard time wanting to lay a big number with them,..
 
2daBank said:
before last week nothing appeared easy for the aggies,, maybe they turned the corner/figured things out offensively before bama and it just gonna keep going? i still have a hard time wanting to lay a big number with them,..
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I tended to agree and commented earlier this year on their horrible O line play. But I watched Mizzu game again & Aggies look improved on O line & beat Mizzu on the road by 21. Scary is not good. I don’t think A&M is in any sort of let down spot/situation seems favorable. I’d like any criticism. Appreciate your comments
 
bones said:
I tended to agree and commented earlier this year on their horrible O line play. But I watched Mizzu game again & Aggies look improved on O line & beat Mizzu on the road by 21. Scary is not good. I don’t think A&M is in any sort of let down spot/situation seems favorable. I’d like any criticism. Appreciate your comments
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i didnt catch any the mizzou game but i think you really gotta temper the results vs them,, their defense is one the worst i ever seen them play at mizzou! every week they just getting gashed, teams basically doing whatever they want, Vols ran for over 4 bills on them!! it is certainly possible aggies have finally figured things out, they def looked really good against bama which validates last week more imo (not a great spot at mizzou either).

i wouldnt say this criticism, just was my initial thought when hearing A&M covering a 3 td spread and easy in same sentence, lol.. only time ive caught any of scary was little of ecu and the uk game which was probably a outlier or more about uk still struggling to figure out their offense at that point? uk still ran all over them as most teams have which obviously bodes well for aggies here.

scary offense hasnt even looked very impressive in their games vs the crappy defenses of ecu, troy, or vandy last week, mfers only scored once after the 1st qrtr last week so your point of them not being very good is probably a understatement! AM holding mizzou to 14 and only 230 passing yards was impressive, seems pretty reasonable to expect scary to be held to 14 or less in this one,. im just not sure what a reasonable point total is to expect out of aggies? did they take foot off the gas last week? the yardage total was plenty good but as i mentioned everyone putting up those kind of numbers on tigers defense, the 35 points wasnt overly impressive but they only scored 7 after half which im assuming was them simply playing ball control with the big lead? Aggies point total seems like the key to me (groundbreaking analysis i know!), if 10-14 a safe estimate of what scary will score (i think it is), then we just have to decide if A&M can score 35-38 minimum? scary is brutal getting off the field on 3rd downs and that with a pretty good sack rate they compiled vs mostly the bad teams they have played, Aggies should def be able to wear them down, just gonna need that to equate to points in the second half to cover this number.. i damn sure wouldnt play scary, laying big numbers just never been a strength of mine..what about 1st half? takes away the wearing down scary defense late but it also defends against them being on cruise control after getting a big lead similar to last week appeared to be..
 
Took LSU on the open at +11x. I don't see any reason for a number that high and thought it must be a typo and it was actually -1x.

Corral is a hell of a QB, but Ole Miss has no defense at all and my guess is they have played more plays the last three weeks than any college team, so what do they have left in the tank?

I guess the number is so high because the announcement was made about coach O, but I'm guessing that fires LSU up and is actually a plus, not a minus.

In conference games Ole Miss got hammered by Bama, gave up 51 to Arkansas and only won because Arkansas went for two and failed, and anyone who watched the Tennessee game knows Ole Miss should have lost that one, and would have if Hooker had been in the game. So based on performance what makes them 11 better than LSU?

LSU beat Florida and Miss State and lost to Auburn and Kentucky, has the best defense, just played their best game of the season, discovered a running game and a running back against Florida, and has the best athletes, so why are they 11 points worse than a soft Ole Miss team

I must be missing something. I thought after I bet it there must be some big injuries for LSU I was missing, but I don't find any listed. I thought that line would open at -3.

Anyone see Ole Miss laying 11 as a good bet?
 
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2daBank said:
when did he leave the vandy game? assuming he played into the 3rd qrtr at least considering amount of passes he threw.
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He played the entire game except for the final series. I thought it was odd at the time they put Noland in for the final drive, but now it must've been something wasn't right with Doty that he got hurt at some point and instead of putting him out there under 100% they had Noland who brought them the win.
 
I didnt read any of the comments but which underdog is best?

The only one I could see is the Vols and I wouldn't want to bet against Bama.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Took LSU on the open at +11x. I don't see any reason for a number that high and thought it must be a typo and it was actually -1x.

Corral is a hell of a QB, but Ole Miss has no defense at all and my guess is they have played more plays the last three weeks than any college team, so what do they have left in the tank?

I guess the number is so high because the announcement was made about coach O, but I'm guessing that fires LSU up and is actually a plus, not a minus.

In conference games Ole Miss got hammered by Bama, gave up 51 to Arkansas and only won because Arkansas went for two and failed, and anyone who watched the Tennessee game knows Ole Miss should have lost that one, and would have if Hooker had been in the game. So based on performance what makes them 11 better than LSU?

LSU beat Florida and Miss State and lost to Auburn and Kentucky, has the best defense, just played their best game of the season, discovered a running game and a running back against Florida, and has the best athletes, so why are they 11 points worse than a soft Ole Miss team

I must be missing something because I thought that line would open at -3.

Anyone see Ole Miss laying 11 as a good bet?
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holy cow, -3? maybe im too high on ol piss, you bring up valid points but even teams on a neutral? that sounds crazy to me .. i think im with you on the fact coach O news will lift them not hurt them.,. can we trust lsu will continue to go to the run game? i been somewhat perplexed why they really hadnt tried to run much at all the rest the year, you would think they stick with it especially in this matchup where rebs basically invite you to run. that is putting trust in a staff i dont have any in, scares me, lol..

is the lsu defense really better? rebs have faced the stronger schedule according to team rankings power rankings, although not by much, think lsu maybe had 1 more cup cake? rebs defensive numbers in ypp, points per play, yards per carry, red zone and 3rd down d are all better than tigers (neither ranks very good). rebs have gotten more pressure and allowed 40 less passing yards per game as well.. certainly not saying i think -11 a good bet, just not sure i love the idea of playing lsu off the gators upset, but as mentioned it could be the coach O news offsets any potential letdown.. im not the person to ask on this one tho, before the gators game i said i didnt think lsu was gonna win another sec game this year!!!! lol
 
s--k said:
He played the entire game except for the final series. I thought it was odd at the time they put Noland in for the final drive, but now it must've been something wasn't right with Doty that he got hurt at some point and instead of putting him out there under 100% they had Noland who brought them the win.
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dang, so Noland 5 for 8 for 75 yards and a td all came on the final drive to win the game? i know it was against vandy but still not to shabby! He did play the entire ecu game where the offense was far from impressive,, is there much a fall off between the 2? now that i know Dory played the rest the game the fact they didnt score in the 2nd or 3rd qrtr looks worse..
 
2daBank said:
dang, so Noland 5 for 8 for 75 yards and a td all came on the final drive to win the game? i know it was against vandy but still not to shabby! He did play the entire ecu game where the offense was far from impressive,, is there much a fall off between the 2? now that i know Dory played the rest the game the fact they didnt score in the 2nd or 3rd qrtr looks worse..
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I don't really think there is much difference and wouldn't expect the spread to be any different for either. Vandy coached were scared and played ultra conservative. No pressure at all, was like a 7 on 7 for Nolan's to just throw to open receivers all the way down the field. It was pretty disgusting. I posted a 10 ML on Vandy but actually took it for 50. That's the most pissed I've been losing a game this ssn by far.
 
spottie2935 said:
I didnt read any of the comments but which underdog is best?

The only one I could see is the Vols and I wouldn't want to bet against Bama.
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dont anticipate playing any sec dogs this week, not sure i see myself playing any sec games period.,. Tahoe seems to like lsu quite a bit..
 
noland is afwul. This guy is all body , just an ugly throwing motion. Worst qb in the league. These guys couldn't score on ECU with him. TAMU I think there was some reason to think they were improving their running game steadily before Bama, still not sure how good they are but think you gotta auto fade carolina without Doty. That's a huge loss imo.

agree 11 seems high with LSU. Is Ole Piss much better than Auburn who lsu played tough ? The only game they looked bad in was games they got bad matchups in the run game. UK, UCLA. Florida was supposed to be another.
 
2daBank said:
dont anticipate playing any sec dogs this week, not sure i see myself playing any sec games period.,. Tahoe seems to like lsu quite a bit..
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agree i like the chalk in most of these

Anyone else agree Mississippi State is making strides, their yardage is up on offense compared to last year vs the same defenses. Guessing their offensive stats have improved quite a bit year over year. Seemed to move it on bama outside the red zone. Defensively I think they may be worse though but for leach teams offense is always the main thing.

Thinking they can take it to vandy this week. Last year Vandy kept it close as anybody could who was dropping guys into coverage. This year Leach gonna let that happen?
 
EL CAPO said:
agree i like the chalk in most of these

Anyone else agree Mississippi State is making strides, their yardage is up on offense compared to last year vs the same defenses. Guessing their offensive stats have improved quite a bit year over year. Seemed to move it on bama outside the red zone. Defensively I think they may be worse though but for leach teams offense is always the main thing.

Thinking they can take it to vandy this week. Last year Vandy kept it close as anybody could who was dropping guys into coverage. This year Leach gonna let that happen?
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oddly enough earlier in the year i really thought the defense was the strength of Mississippi state this season. didnt think the offense did them any favors and havnt paid muh attention last few.. the d was fantastic against ncst..if the offense is getting it together they should roll vandy,, i hate laying big numbers but 20.5 outta be doable..
 
throwing for 408 against A&M was pretty impressive id say,, is there a hangover after bama? feel like ive heard that being a thing before? i recall being told they got totally fucked at memphis on some crazy special teams call or non call, even so they shouldnt have let that game be close enough one play beat them!! of course memphis yardage total doesnt really scream a team who scored 31. smells like a blowout if no hangover..
 
EL CAPO said:
noland is afwul. This guy is all body , just an ugly throwing motion. Worst qb in the league. These guys couldn't score on ECU with him. TAMU I think there was some reason to think they were improving their running game steadily before Bama, still not sure how good they are but think you gotta auto fade carolina without Doty. That's a huge loss imo.

agree 11 seems high with LSU. Is Ole Piss much better than Auburn who lsu played tough ? The only game they looked bad in was games they got bad matchups in the run game. UK, UCLA. Florida was supposed to be another.
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I didn’t realize there was any rhyme or reason to when lsu looked good or bad? Lol. Guess I havnt been paying enough attention. Nix kicked their asses at lsu at night, def didn’t see that coming. He was the driving force for the run game also which if Corall heathy you would think can do something similar except with more yards and points!! In fairness Nix has been a lot better on the road this year.
 
Regarding LSU this weekend, who knows?!
I get texts and am all kind of chains and the one thing I said last week was, “Fuck it. Play the other guys/young guys”. We got that and they won.

It’s hard to cap, because we rarely see a situation like this where Coach is gone, yet still there.
 
bones said:
I tended to agree and commented earlier this year on their horrible O line play. But I watched Mizzu game again & Aggies look improved on O line & beat Mizzu on the road by 21. Scary is not good. I don’t think A&M is in any sort of let down spot/situation seems favorable. I’d like any criticism. Appreciate your comments
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Jimbo shuffled the line each week. Lost Matthews for the year, only one/two returning starters. When haynes went down we lost our mobile qb.
Yeah, they looked like shit but they were plugging in btwn injuries when the line wasn't set in the first place.
The light went on for qb, also.
I would be happy with 21, not much more.
Seth hits the make to end Bama, misses two vs Mizz. I would hate you need a fg/xpt to cover.
There wont be a lookahead to Aubbie with hte bye.

The defense has shown a propensity to not tackle when they feel the use of eneergy is better saved. THink Dallas Cowboys.

my fear is the cocks are kinda psycho. Play/no play/play
 
I think if I was gonna play aggies i would probably play 1st half and see what happens. If they don’t cover half can always fire again at a better number for game if it looks like they in control. I’d just hate to see them jump out then sit on lead like they seemed to last week, much bigger number to cover here and not sure scary is any worse than Mizzou? Their defense can’t possibly be as bad.
 
Thinking playing Bama across the board--first quarter, first quarter tt over, first quarter over may be solid this week. Bama -24 for the game might be worthwhile although I hate to give any points, let alone that many

I know this used to be a big rivalry for both teams, but don't know if the current players still view it that way. I don't know if the Vols have anything left in the tank after last week and doubt Hooker can last the game if he tries to run it as many times against Bama as he did last week and he's their main threat.

Don't see any reason why Bama shouldn't be fired up
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Thinking playing Bama across the board--first quarter, first quarter tt over, bama -24 for the game might be worthwhile although I hate to give any points, let alone that many

I know this used to be a big rivalry for both teams, but don't know if the current players still view it that way. I don't know if the Vols have anything left in the tank after last week and doubt Hooker can last the game if he tries to run it as many times against Bama as he did last week and he's their main threat.

Don't see any reason why Bama shouldn't be fired up
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Alabama 1q,1q over, 1q TT over
1H , 1H over , 1H TT over were gold mine last year

Believe 1Q TT, they juiced it very high. Last week, it was like -170
 
Hooker has taken almost all the reps at practice this week, so I'd say he's a go. Get your Vols ML bets in now.
 
2daBank said:
before last week nothing appeared easy for the aggies,, maybe they turned the corner/figured things out offensively before bama and it just gonna keep going? i still have a hard time wanting to lay a big number with them,..
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I can’t get the colorado game out of my head with a&m. Based on what i have seen, i think they are closer to that team, in actuality, than the team that beat alabama.
 
2daBank said:
I think if I was gonna play aggies i would probably play 1st half and see what happens. If they don’t cover half can always fire again at a better number for game if it looks like they in control. I’d just hate to see them jump out then sit on lead like they seemed to last week, much bigger number to cover here and not sure scary is any worse than Mizzou? Their defense can’t possibly be as bad.
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Scary D is much better than mizzou’s. Especially against the run, which is what jimbo n em wanna do
 
mcculran said:
I can’t get the colorado game out of my head with a&m. Based on what i have seen, i think they are closer to that team, in actuality, than the team that beat alabama.
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i dunno bout that, before start of the season they were widely regarded as the team with the best chance to dethrone bama (on this side the sec, obviously not including uga). replacing the qb and some oline guys turned out to be a tougher task than ppl thought, those things tend to take time at most schools so think they deserve the benefit of the doubt that they doing what most good ncaa teams do and improving as the season goes.. i think the offense light years better now from where they were in the non conf schedule. there no dount jimbo had that bama game circled since the end of last year so did we get what prob turns out to be their best effort in that game? probably, but i do think we will see something closer to the last few weeks going forward.. there no way i would touch scary here, kinda warming up to the idea of playing aggies 1st half. not in love with idea of backing them to cover 3 tds as not sure they a team who gonna keep their foot on the gas once they get a comfy lead? i have no doubt they could have scored way more than 35 on mizzou awful defense had they wanted to, that kind of thing gives me pause on idea of laying -21, i dont expect scary has much success on the offensive side the ball so dont think agges getting up 14 or more by half is a unreasonable ask.. that only way i would get involved in this one, or maybe scary 1st half team total under if you worried bout A&M offense.
 
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