SEC Week 7 Discussion
- Thread starter gps_3
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Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
I feel this card is better than last weekend
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Already took Bama -9.5 for 2u
They should run all over ARK. Have to assume line will rise.
They should run all over ARK. Have to assume line will rise.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I'll have some other thoughts later when I get some time, but this was surprising to me. Nothing I've seen says that LSU should be laying points to anyone right now. I don't know that UF has the offense to exploit LSU's deficiencies, but Muschamp knows it will be tough for Foley to fire him with wins against UT and LSU this season.
Silkydiamonds
Imma sip this tea
Uh oh looks like Jorts is back
@BarrettSallee: RT @DaveJonesUFbeat: Gainesville source has confirmed that #Gators quarterback Treon Harris is being investigated in a legal matter.
@BarrettSallee: RT @DaveJonesUFbeat: Gainesville source has confirmed that #Gators quarterback Treon Harris is being investigated in a legal matter.
treon Harris likely out and being ruled ineligible.. Distractions at the least
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Don't see any real lookaheads or traps, but there are some less than favorable situations this week:
UK off the biggest win in recent history gets La Monroe this week with a road game at a suddenly very beatable LSU next week
UT playing UT-Chattanooga after a deflating defeat. Unbelievable that they can't beat UF
Ole Miss is obvious. Going on the road after winning the self-described biggest game in school history. I don't believe that, but certainly biggest win in my lifetime. Senquez Golson admitted that they have been game planning for Alabama for 4 weeks. Students storm the field, rip down the goal posts, Katy Perry snorts coke off of Bo Wallace's chest. There's no way they will come close to matching the level of intensity and focus. Will it matter? Not impressed with aTm, and the shine from that win over SC has taken a licking, but the situation could not be more favorable for aTm, or worse for Ole Miss
I started to include Miss St, but I don't think it the situation is that bad, and actually may be worse for Auburn. Given the way the students and team reacted, and the fact that the game was over in the 2Q, Miss St acted like they were supposed to beat aTm. And they aren't much of a rival being new to the league. But Miss St has a hard on for Auburn. They should have a 4 game win streak against them, but have choked away the game 3 of those 4. This is a game that is circled in Starkville. AU on the other hand, is playing as well as anyone right now, and just dispatched of LSU with ease. It's definitely not the LSU of the last few years, but this was a circled game for AU. They had lost 6 of 7 and 3 straight, last year's being the only regular season loss. AU has big game experience and a great coach, but they may be walking into a situation similar to what happened in Oxford last week. AU will have to play it's best game of the year to win IMO.
A case can be made that Alabama is in a bad spot too. I originally circled this week as a trap, but I think that's out the window with the loss last week, and Arky playing much better. The question is how does Alabama react after the loss. For right now, I will give them the benefit of the doubt that they will bounce back well. In the last 6 years, the two times Alabama lost 2 in a row were bowl games after they lost a chance to play for a national championship. Obviously the loss last week is painful, but losing in October isn't the same as losing in November and December.
UK off the biggest win in recent history gets La Monroe this week with a road game at a suddenly very beatable LSU next week
UT playing UT-Chattanooga after a deflating defeat. Unbelievable that they can't beat UF
Ole Miss is obvious. Going on the road after winning the self-described biggest game in school history. I don't believe that, but certainly biggest win in my lifetime. Senquez Golson admitted that they have been game planning for Alabama for 4 weeks. Students storm the field, rip down the goal posts, Katy Perry snorts coke off of Bo Wallace's chest. There's no way they will come close to matching the level of intensity and focus. Will it matter? Not impressed with aTm, and the shine from that win over SC has taken a licking, but the situation could not be more favorable for aTm, or worse for Ole Miss
I started to include Miss St, but I don't think it the situation is that bad, and actually may be worse for Auburn. Given the way the students and team reacted, and the fact that the game was over in the 2Q, Miss St acted like they were supposed to beat aTm. And they aren't much of a rival being new to the league. But Miss St has a hard on for Auburn. They should have a 4 game win streak against them, but have choked away the game 3 of those 4. This is a game that is circled in Starkville. AU on the other hand, is playing as well as anyone right now, and just dispatched of LSU with ease. It's definitely not the LSU of the last few years, but this was a circled game for AU. They had lost 6 of 7 and 3 straight, last year's being the only regular season loss. AU has big game experience and a great coach, but they may be walking into a situation similar to what happened in Oxford last week. AU will have to play it's best game of the year to win IMO.
A case can be made that Alabama is in a bad spot too. I originally circled this week as a trap, but I think that's out the window with the loss last week, and Arky playing much better. The question is how does Alabama react after the loss. For right now, I will give them the benefit of the doubt that they will bounce back well. In the last 6 years, the two times Alabama lost 2 in a row were bowl games after they lost a chance to play for a national championship. Obviously the loss last week is painful, but losing in October isn't the same as losing in November and December.
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pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
I think the same situation that faced the Ags last week, pertains to Ole Miss this week. Very few believed the Ags would come out of this 4 game stretch unscathed. I think that is how it will be for all the teams in the west. Unfortunately.
The detractors can say what they will, but it still passes the eye test concerning size/speed the teams are putting on the field.
I will admit with my work schedule I'm seeing less games, but the conference still looks pretty good to me.(jaded)
I like Arky at home right now.
I figured Messy St would get their's vs. Bama. Their sched tends to give them breaks between the west matchups after Au.
Ags and Tigers are the only schools that have 4 consecutive west schools in a row.
Not that 3 is any gift. And I'm sure that Kentucky game is not looking any easier for MSU as the season goes.
The detractors can say what they will, but it still passes the eye test concerning size/speed the teams are putting on the field.
I will admit with my work schedule I'm seeing less games, but the conference still looks pretty good to me.(jaded)
I like Arky at home right now.
I figured Messy St would get their's vs. Bama. Their sched tends to give them breaks between the west matchups after Au.
Ags and Tigers are the only schools that have 4 consecutive west schools in a row.
Not that 3 is any gift. And I'm sure that Kentucky game is not looking any easier for MSU as the season goes.
Why? LSU looks terrible
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
against teams currently ranked #2 and 3
xyzky
Pretty much a regular
Exactly...I just layed the -2
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Ya .. this is true. It isn't that the SEC isn't good .. or to take it to the step everyone else does, it isn't like they are not the best conference. I think argument people have against the SEC is that the gap isn't all that big. To gps' point .. LSU wins the Mw, Sunbelt, MAC, American (maybe), and CUSA conferences if they are in them but are steaming piles of crap within their own division.
What I think bothers most people about the SEC is that they just refuse to go play true road games against ooc competition. You get the semi-neutral ( usually favoring the SEC squad in Atlanta ) game here or there .. but they would rather schedule the sunbelt pansy and get the easy win before entering tough conference play. So then you have them inflating their ooc record with home games against lesser competition who are really just there cashing a paycheck for the athletic department or ... when they lose to the ooc opponent it is because they were overconfident, looking past them, disappointed to be in the bowl they are in .. etc etc ... some credit to Auburn for playing KSU in Manhattan... but that team is probably the fourth or fifth best team in the big12 and they thoroughly outplayed Auburn. Oklahoma physically made bama look like teenage girls on the field last year ... TAMU was a middle tier big12 school and moved into the SEC and became a middle tier SEC team ... and Missouri moved from a middle tier big12 team and became a middle tier SEC team. So yes ... in my opinion the SEC is the best conference, I just don't think it is the dominant force that SEC folks seem to think and the elitism gets a little funny for intelligent people to take after awhile.
Silkydiamonds
Imma sip this tea
Think Clown pretty much nailed it for me. There's no denying the Conf is GOOD! You just can't have that much 4/5* talent & not be. I'll never deny how good some of the teams are. arkansas would win the ACC coastal and it wouldn't be close.
But there is some clear fattening frogs for snakes nonsense in their too. It's beating the brakes off 3 payday games, taking on a maybe a bottom of the league power 5 & then boom 5-0 in 1st conf game vs another who just did the same.
the East has some permanent OOC games that I respect, UF/FSU, UGA/GT, USCe/Clem. LSU always takes on someone that should be more than a scrimmage from a power 5. But some of that OOC stuff then the cross division stuff is grade inflation.
again I do believe some of the best CFB teams reside in the SEC west, but beating SoBama, UAB, & SoMiss before beating over ranked LSU then a middle of the pack aTm doesn't make Miss St some juggernaut. Their 2 big wins may not reach 8 wins. And the wins that made their 2 big wins "formidable" are turning out to be wins vs teams that may play Christmas week bowls vs the Mac & sunbelt.
But there is some clear fattening frogs for snakes nonsense in their too. It's beating the brakes off 3 payday games, taking on a maybe a bottom of the league power 5 & then boom 5-0 in 1st conf game vs another who just did the same.
the East has some permanent OOC games that I respect, UF/FSU, UGA/GT, USCe/Clem. LSU always takes on someone that should be more than a scrimmage from a power 5. But some of that OOC stuff then the cross division stuff is grade inflation.
again I do believe some of the best CFB teams reside in the SEC west, but beating SoBama, UAB, & SoMiss before beating over ranked LSU then a middle of the pack aTm doesn't make Miss St some juggernaut. Their 2 big wins may not reach 8 wins. And the wins that made their 2 big wins "formidable" are turning out to be wins vs teams that may play Christmas week bowls vs the Mac & sunbelt.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
The neutral field OOC game is here to stay unfortunately. Not many schools are interested in a big game and not taking in at least half the ticket revenue. So the true road OOC is dwindling, and that's true of every conference. Too much $. It will eventually ruin the sport
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
Sumlin alluded to this in a presser before Arkansas.
We just agreed to a schedule with ND.....................for 2024/25. The games are done well in advance and you guys know this.
In the Ags/Mizzou case, they switched conferences and the schedules changed. Thus the schools were scrambling to fill some slots.
Ags/Mizzou went from playing possibly 9/10 in the Bevo12 to 8 conf games.
We just agreed to a schedule with ND.....................for 2024/25. The games are done well in advance and you guys know this.
In the Ags/Mizzou case, they switched conferences and the schedules changed. Thus the schools were scrambling to fill some slots.
Ags/Mizzou went from playing possibly 9/10 in the Bevo12 to 8 conf games.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I don't think that's fair. If you count Vandy & Wake at the moment, five of the seven SEC East schools are playing annual home & homes against ACC schools. UGA just finished a home & him with Clemson. Auburn recently did a home & home plus a neutral vs. Clemson. Alabama's played at Penn State and Duke in the last 5 seasons. The last 10 years, Ole Miss has played at Texas, Wyoming (lost), Tulane, Memphis, Fresno, and Wake (lost). Are the other power conferences any better?
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
maybe i just don't buy football in the state of Mississippi, but I am looking forward to fading both of those programs and even the hated Ags look appealing this week. Was hoping to get a flat 3, but I guess that is gone (hope it was never available and i didn't miss it but i suspect i did)
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
this also surprises me
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I'm not buying them long term, but they are solid top 15-25 type teams, and with some good bounces may end up top 10. Even though they probably aren't the best team Alabama plays this year, last week's may be the toughest we play this year, given all the circumstances. Mainly first true road game against a good team. At this point, I still give Miss St the edge between the 2, mainly bc of Dak, but it's close
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
Gonna be a Maroon Out for the game Saturday.
As much as I don't put a lot of stock in it, thank God I don't have to look at the neutral color fest from this past weekend.
Please go back to classic maroon helmet.
The uni's now look almost like when I was there in the mid 70's. I hated them then.
As much as I don't put a lot of stock in it, thank God I don't have to look at the neutral color fest from this past weekend.
Please go back to classic maroon helmet.
The uni's now look almost like when I was there in the mid 70's. I hated them then.
Carolina Guy
Pretty much a regular
The two football schools in Mississippi sure as hell "bought" football. I just wish someone with the balls on TV to ask how both programs got here after generations of just pure shit?
Engineer
Pretty much a regular
I know you're not this naive
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
Please enlighten me. Do Ole Miss and State cheat? Of course, just like everybody else in the SEC except Vandy. Does Ole Miss consistently outbid Bama or anybody else for recruits? No fucking way. As I posted earlier, Bama fans shouldn't point the finger at anybody else when it comes to playing the game. I have a great deal of respect for Bama's program, but don't kid yourself.
Edited to add: I dont want to derail gps' thread, which is a weekly must read for me. It's always helpful. We can start a "Who is cheating the most in the SEC thread" if Ole Miss and State continue to win. I suspect that there won't be nearly as many accusations after we both end up in middle tier bowl games this year.
Edited to add: I dont want to derail gps' thread, which is a weekly must read for me. It's always helpful. We can start a "Who is cheating the most in the SEC thread" if Ole Miss and State continue to win. I suspect that there won't be nearly as many accusations after we both end up in middle tier bowl games this year.
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Carolina Guy
Pretty much a regular
Lol.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
The first 2 seem like slam dunks. Mizzou's offense has looked pretty poor last 2 games against pretty bad defenses, so not excited to count on them to push a game over
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
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gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I don't watch/listen to Finebaum bc of callers like her. It's like Jerry Springer for sports, and it presents such a negative view of what it's like in this state. It's unfortunate, because Paul is a smart guy, and a great sports writer, but I guess there more $ in hosting a circus show every afternoon.
As as for UGA/Mizzou, I lean Bulldogs, but I don't trust them. They win here and the east is all but wrapped up. I'm starting to lean more and more toward big wins for aTm and Alabama. Especially after Golson for OM admitted they've been watching film on Alabama for 4 weeks. No way they can be prepared mentally for this game. If they are, I'm going to pay to see it. Alabama may be a homer play, but this is the kind of offense we are built to stop, and as Saban said in his presser, all of their goals are still attainable. If they show up flat this Saturday, go ahead and write them down for 2 or 3 more losses
As as for UGA/Mizzou, I lean Bulldogs, but I don't trust them. They win here and the east is all but wrapped up. I'm starting to lean more and more toward big wins for aTm and Alabama. Especially after Golson for OM admitted they've been watching film on Alabama for 4 weeks. No way they can be prepared mentally for this game. If they are, I'm going to pay to see it. Alabama may be a homer play, but this is the kind of offense we are built to stop, and as Saban said in his presser, all of their goals are still attainable. If they show up flat this Saturday, go ahead and write them down for 2 or 3 more losses
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
i've determined i know very little (or maybe nothing) about SEC football and i owe Bo Wallace a public apology.
aplous
Donkey Hater
Would depend a lot on what A&M did at Miss State. Assuming they were blown out like they were, and Ole Miss lost a close one...prolly similar line...A&M -4.5 Id say.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
lmao i was waiting for ya and for the record am happy to see Ole Miss get the Mouse that has been there for 15 or so years off their back
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
can't agree more
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Updated lines with totals in the top post.
Looking back at the first 5 weeks, I think the situational capping has been the best for me. I don't know that it's possible for me to be totally objective when capping this league. Even though I dislike 13 teams in this league, there are varying degrees to which I dislike them. Clearly I look through Crimson colored glasses at times. And I'll never give Auburn an ounce of credit. I try my best, but I should have been able to see how bad of a situation Alabama was walking into last week. Same with LSU. Both of those games cost me a pretty good chunk on what had been a great run. Oh well. I'm gonna try harder.
That said, I'm having a tough time getting a read on the AU/MSU game. Miss St has looked more impressive, but I trust AU more in these big games. This is the 3rd big game for AU in the last 4 weeks, and the only one they've looked great in, really the only game all season, was against LSU. Right now, if you can run the ball, especially between the tackles, you're going to have success on LSU. Can't believe I just said that, but they are not nearly as strong up the middle as we have come to expect. Add a TF QB in his first road start, and you get what happened. Miss St's weakness on defense is defending the pass, and they're DL is pretty stout. I think they can force Marshall to beat them with his arm. Which is a 50/50 proposition at best IMO. Dak Prescott is a man and I think he will end up as 1st team All-SEC. Probably by a lot. AU's defense is built to bend and not break, so I expect there will be a lot of yards in this game. I'm most likely taking the points, and will look at TT overs once they are released for me.
This is a game Alabama should win. And should win easily. The Alabama defense is built to stop this type of offense. A couple of issues are that the starting center is out, one of our LBs is out, though that's less of a problem. Landon Collins was severely hobbled in the Ole Miss game, pretty obvious on the last Ole Miss TD, and I don't know how healthy he is. He will be critical in run support and covering the TE. The most concerning thing for me is the number of unforced or lack of focus mistakes by this team. Penalties, no ball security, and a complete inability to get lined up on time on both sides of the ball. I'm not sure those things get fixed in a week, and they've been an issue all season. I do feel that Ark is getting a ton of credit for looking good in losses. Yes they are better than the last couple of seasons, but all they've done is blow the game against aTm, stay competitive with AU for a half, and destroy a Texas Tech team that can't tackle, and doesn't want to learn. They still have lost 14 straight SEC games. But, they've lost to Alabama 52-0 twice in a row, so you know they are ready to get some respect back, and Alabama looks entirely beatable. I'm staying away for now
Anyone have a good read on ULM? I want to bet against UK this week. Horrible spot after the biggest win there in I don't know how long, and trip to LSU on deck. 3 TDs seems like a lot to me
Mizzou let Indiana run all over them. I can't imagine they'll stop Gurley. I have no faith in Mason to pass their way to victory, and I think they will rely heavily on the run game, and why not? I'm guessing that Mizzou isn't as bad on offense as they looked against SC. Maybe they were tired and ready for the bye. I don't know. This game is for the driver's seat in the East, so it's a huge game. Home team getting points. I lean UGA, but will more likely take the under if anything
Looking back at the first 5 weeks, I think the situational capping has been the best for me. I don't know that it's possible for me to be totally objective when capping this league. Even though I dislike 13 teams in this league, there are varying degrees to which I dislike them. Clearly I look through Crimson colored glasses at times. And I'll never give Auburn an ounce of credit. I try my best, but I should have been able to see how bad of a situation Alabama was walking into last week. Same with LSU. Both of those games cost me a pretty good chunk on what had been a great run. Oh well. I'm gonna try harder.
That said, I'm having a tough time getting a read on the AU/MSU game. Miss St has looked more impressive, but I trust AU more in these big games. This is the 3rd big game for AU in the last 4 weeks, and the only one they've looked great in, really the only game all season, was against LSU. Right now, if you can run the ball, especially between the tackles, you're going to have success on LSU. Can't believe I just said that, but they are not nearly as strong up the middle as we have come to expect. Add a TF QB in his first road start, and you get what happened. Miss St's weakness on defense is defending the pass, and they're DL is pretty stout. I think they can force Marshall to beat them with his arm. Which is a 50/50 proposition at best IMO. Dak Prescott is a man and I think he will end up as 1st team All-SEC. Probably by a lot. AU's defense is built to bend and not break, so I expect there will be a lot of yards in this game. I'm most likely taking the points, and will look at TT overs once they are released for me.
This is a game Alabama should win. And should win easily. The Alabama defense is built to stop this type of offense. A couple of issues are that the starting center is out, one of our LBs is out, though that's less of a problem. Landon Collins was severely hobbled in the Ole Miss game, pretty obvious on the last Ole Miss TD, and I don't know how healthy he is. He will be critical in run support and covering the TE. The most concerning thing for me is the number of unforced or lack of focus mistakes by this team. Penalties, no ball security, and a complete inability to get lined up on time on both sides of the ball. I'm not sure those things get fixed in a week, and they've been an issue all season. I do feel that Ark is getting a ton of credit for looking good in losses. Yes they are better than the last couple of seasons, but all they've done is blow the game against aTm, stay competitive with AU for a half, and destroy a Texas Tech team that can't tackle, and doesn't want to learn. They still have lost 14 straight SEC games. But, they've lost to Alabama 52-0 twice in a row, so you know they are ready to get some respect back, and Alabama looks entirely beatable. I'm staying away for now
Anyone have a good read on ULM? I want to bet against UK this week. Horrible spot after the biggest win there in I don't know how long, and trip to LSU on deck. 3 TDs seems like a lot to me
Mizzou let Indiana run all over them. I can't imagine they'll stop Gurley. I have no faith in Mason to pass their way to victory, and I think they will rely heavily on the run game, and why not? I'm guessing that Mizzou isn't as bad on offense as they looked against SC. Maybe they were tired and ready for the bye. I don't know. This game is for the driver's seat in the East, so it's a huge game. Home team getting points. I lean UGA, but will more likely take the under if anything
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
i think Miss St will force Auburn to have Marshall beat them thru the air (much like last year) when they held Auburn to 3.3 per carry and 120 total. Marshall responded with a career high 339 yds passing (but two picks as well). State's pass defense is horrid (123rd out of 125 passing yds allowed). I will be looking for Duke William props. Patrick Miller (OL) is questionable ( good luck getting any injury updates from Gus) but the offensive line is pretty good at shuffling wherever they need to be, so no biggee in my mind. If you think Auburn's defense is porous, its important to note they are 9th in scoring defense (14.4) and 14th in total defense (306.6) but i think it is fair to say they haven't seen an offense like State has (541 per game). Not to state the obvious, but somethings got to give. Have no interest in the side ( gun to my head i'd be on State just because of Auburn's road woes), but i do think the 64 is a little high. I will also be looking for a Prescott rushing prop and have it set around 103 fwiw ( had 122 last yr.) Good luck to everyone.
aplous
Donkey Hater
I watched Auburn in person....in order to shut down their run you really have to commit 8 guys. There will be plenty of chances for Marshall to throw 1 on 1. Also the Auburn defensive guys were the biggest I've ever seen on a college team. It was unreal. I'm sure plenty of SEC teams have these kind of guys but it was unreal.
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