SEC Week 6

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 6 games:

UK +20.5 @ UGA
Texas -6.5 @ Florida
Vandy +10.5 @ Alabama
OU -45.5 vs Kent St
Miss St +14 @ aTm
 
I feel like I want to be on FLA
Kentucky was a bet likely before UGA loss
Vandy is tempting as well
Moo State worth a look as well
 
For whatever reason, UGA struggles with Kentucky. 13-12 last year, 16-6 in 2022, 14-3 in 2020. They did have a blowout in 2023 (51-13) and a comfortable win in 2021 (30-13). Hard to say how they'll respond off of a loss. Not sure I want any part of UK, but I'll be looking at the under pretty closely. UGA has @AU and hosts Ole Miss on deck

I don't think I can bet the Texas/UF game. No clue what to expect from either team. Texas does have Red River on deck and this is the first of 4 straight games away from Austin

I do have some interest in Miss St.

I can see a variety of outcomes in Tuscaloosa. Similar scenario as last season, although there is no way Alabama overlooks Vandy this time. However, Vanderbilt is a good bit better than they were last year. The path to a cover and even a victory for Vandy starts with being able to chew clock and end drives with points, something they've been great with so far. Last year they weren't all that efficient, but kept the ball for forever and hit some explosives. Alabama has shown to be vulnerable to explosive plays, particularly in the run game. The key to a comfortable Alabama win is to get out to a lead and force Vandy to try to play catch up. Vandy's biggest weakness is pass defense, which is not great considering who they've played so far this season. If Ty and the passing offense continue their good play, I think it can even open up the run game some and they will control the flow of the game and probably cover pretty comfortably. So I think it depends on what you think will happen, and that will tell you where to bet. Kind of lost in the pandemonium last year is that Milroe had two critical turnovers: a pick 6 on the first offensive play of the game for Alabama, and a sack fumble inside the redzone late in the game. If either of those don't happen, Alabama likely squeaks it out. But Milroe was gonna Milroe. Alabama is yet to turn the ball over this season, so if that continues I think Alabama wins regardless. But they'll need to get the defense off the field a few times if they are going to cover
 
gps_3 said:
For whatever reason, UGA struggles with Kentucky. 13-12 last year, 16-6 in 2022, 14-3 in 2020. They did have a blowout in 2023 (51-13) and a comfortable win in 2021 (30-13). Hard to say how they'll respond off of a loss. Not sure I want any part of UK, but I'll be looking at the under pretty closely. UGA has @AU and hosts Ole Miss on deck

I don't think I can bet the Texas/UF game. No clue what to expect from either team. Texas does have Red River on deck and this is the first of 4 straight games away from Austin

I do have some interest in Miss St.

I can see a variety of outcomes in Tuscaloosa. Similar scenario as last season, although there is no way Alabama overlooks Vandy this time. However, Vanderbilt is a good bit better than they were last year. The path to a cover and even a victory for Vandy starts with being able to chew clock and end drives with points, something they've been great with so far. Last year they weren't all that efficient, but kept the ball for forever and hit some explosives. Alabama has shown to be vulnerable to explosive plays, particularly in the run game. The key to a comfortable Alabama win is to get out to a lead and force Vandy to try to play catch up. Vandy's biggest weakness is pass defense, which is not great considering who they've played so far this season. If Ty and the passing offense continue their good play, I think it can even open up the run game some and they will control the flow of the game and probably cover pretty comfortably. So I think it depends on what you think will happen, and that will tell you where to bet. Kind of lost in the pandemonium last year is that Milroe had two critical turnovers: a pick 6 on the first offensive play of the game for Alabama, and a sack fumble inside the redzone late in the game. If either of those don't happen, Alabama likely squeaks it out. But Milroe was gonna Milroe. Alabama is yet to turn the ball over this season, so if that continues I think Alabama wins regardless. But they'll need to get the defense off the field a few times if they are going to cover
Click to expand...
Really good info and analysis!
 
No clue on the Horns this week. Gun to my head, play Florida. I realize Lagway is seeing ghosts now but let's see if Manning isn't seeing the same in Gainesville. Cleaning the cobwebs out at home against Sam Houston High doesn't necessarily do much. i still have little confidence in him / the Texas offense. A 20-17 game either way wouldn't surprise.

Over in Vandy / Alabama. Feels like a 37-27 type game.
 
An interesting thing I heard on a Bama podcast today. Since last year, Alabama's defense subs out based on offensive personnel or situation, like most defenses do. However last year against Vanderbilt, they played strictly nickel (4-2-5). According to the analyst, this appears to be a pretty firm indication that the staff believed they could just line up and out-athlete Vandy. Unfortunately that isn't something you can just change mid-game. I would expect a different defensive effort and scheme this weekend. Now that being said, it may not matter since Vandy is good, not just good for Vandy, but interesting nonetheless
 
Frank Costanza said:
No clue on the Horns this week. Gun to my head, play Florida. I realize Lagway is seeing ghosts now but let's see if Manning isn't seeing the same in Gainesville. Cleaning the cobwebs out at home against Sam Houston High doesn't necessarily do much. i still have little confidence in him / the Texas offense. A 20-17 game either way wouldn't surprise.

Over in Vandy / Alabama. Feels like a 37-27 type game.
Click to expand...
Over definitely feels right, though I was really confident in the over in Athens too
 
gps_3 said:
For whatever reason, UGA struggles with Kentucky. 13-12 last year, 16-6 in 2022, 14-3 in 2020. They did have a blowout in 2023 (51-13) and a comfortable win in 2021 (30-13). Hard to say how they'll respond off of a loss. Not sure I want any part of UK, but I'll be looking at the under pretty closely. UGA has @AU and hosts Ole Miss on deck

I don't think I can bet the Texas/UF game. No clue what to expect from either team. Texas does have Red River on deck and this is the first of 4 straight games away from Austin

I do have some interest in Miss St.

I can see a variety of outcomes in Tuscaloosa. Similar scenario as last season, although there is no way Alabama overlooks Vandy this time. However, Vanderbilt is a good bit better than they were last year. The path to a cover and even a victory for Vandy starts with being able to chew clock and end drives with points, something they've been great with so far. Last year they weren't all that efficient, but kept the ball for forever and hit some explosives. Alabama has shown to be vulnerable to explosive plays, particularly in the run game. The key to a comfortable Alabama win is to get out to a lead and force Vandy to try to play catch up. Vandy's biggest weakness is pass defense, which is not great considering who they've played so far this season. If Ty and the passing offense continue their good play, I think it can even open up the run game some and they will control the flow of the game and probably cover pretty comfortably. So I think it depends on what you think will happen, and that will tell you where to bet. Kind of lost in the pandemonium last year is that Milroe had two critical turnovers: a pick 6 on the first offensive play of the game for Alabama, and a sack fumble inside the redzone late in the game. If either of those don't happen, Alabama likely squeaks it out. But Milroe was gonna Milroe. Alabama is yet to turn the ball over this season, so if that continues I think Alabama wins regardless. But they'll need to get the defense off the field a few times if they are going to cover
Click to expand...
Great post.
 
Georgia is also 0-fer ATS this year too. Failed to cover twice as huge faves. Don't know if I'm ready to run to the window to play UK. They looked like a corpse last week.

Anyone else see Beamer run a fake punt on 4th and 12 from their own 30, up 28-10?
 
Pavia feels good about Saturday:

“I don’t know what they’re doing, I just focus on us, but I know we’ve got to bring it, that’s for sure,” Pavia told On3. “The crowd, I think, is going to be a big factor in the game. But we just gotta play within the white lines. If we do that, if we play our game, it won’t be close.”


sports.yahoo.com

Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia on Alabama: 'If we play our game, it won't be close'

Vanderbilt and Pavia beat Alabama 40-35 in 2024.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com
 
twinkie13 said:
I feel like I want to be on FLA
Kentucky was a bet likely before UGA loss
Vandy is tempting as well
Moo State worth a look as well
Click to expand...

I prefer the Texas team total under 24.5. I just do not trust gators offense but think the d keeps them somewhat in the game, assuming they don’t turn it over a bunch and fuck up everything.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Pavia feels good about Saturday:

“I don’t know what they’re doing, I just focus on us, but I know we’ve got to bring it, that’s for sure,” Pavia told On3. “The crowd, I think, is going to be a big factor in the game. But we just gotta play within the white lines. If we do that, if we play our game, it won’t be close.”


sports.yahoo.com

Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia on Alabama: 'If we play our game, it won't be close'

Vanderbilt and Pavia beat Alabama 40-35 in 2024.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com
Click to expand...

Damn. I dunno bout all that but I def want some pavia props in one fashion or another, hard to decide between his higher rush total or reasonably low passing number, lol.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Pavia feels good about Saturday:

“I don’t know what they’re doing, I just focus on us, but I know we’ve got to bring it, that’s for sure,” Pavia told On3. “The crowd, I think, is going to be a big factor in the game. But we just gotta play within the white lines. If we do that, if we play our game, it won’t be close.”


sports.yahoo.com

Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia on Alabama: 'If we play our game, it won't be close'

Vanderbilt and Pavia beat Alabama 40-35 in 2024.
sports.yahoo.com sports.yahoo.com
Click to expand...
Sounds like over to me.
 
2daBank said:
I prefer the Texas team total under 24.5. I just do not trust gators offense but think the d keeps them somewhat in the game, assuming they don’t turn it over a bunch and fuck up everything.
Click to expand...

I think the only way the Horns get to 25, yes, is fluke-like stuff (TOs and short field). Obviously have to keep in mind that the Fla QB considers balls caught by the other team as completions.
 
Frank Costanza said:
I think the only way the Horns get to 25, yes, is fluke-like stuff (TOs and short field). Obviously have to keep in mind that the Fla QB considers balls caught by the other team as completions.
Click to expand...

🤣🤣 yes that the only reason I didn’t play it for more. That is for sure the main concern.
 
Gameday picked a Vanderbilt fan and friend of Pavia to be the guest picker this week. Manziel will be on the Vandy sidelines. This is De Boer's chance to make a statement. Weird saying that about Vandy, but welcome to 2025. I certainly can see this going sideways for Alabama, but I'm starting to think we'll handle them this time around
 
gps_3 said:
Gameday picked a Vanderbilt fan and friend of Pavia to be the guest picker this week. Manziel will be on the Vandy sidelines. This is De Boer's chance to make a statement. Weird saying that about Vandy, but welcome to 2025. I certainly can see this going sideways for Alabama, but I'm starting to think we'll handle them this time around
Click to expand...
I expect the outcome to be undecided until the final minutes. I think Bama has all of the pressure in this one and vandy playing with house money.
 
gps_3 said:
Gameday picked a Vanderbilt fan and friend of Pavia to be the guest picker this week. Manziel will be on the Vandy sidelines. This is De Boer's chance to make a statement. Weird saying that about Vandy, but welcome to 2025. I certainly can see this going sideways for Alabama, but I'm starting to think we'll handle them this time around
Click to expand...

I like Bama to cover. Love the over more.

Fuhrman this AM on TNR...Tomorrow will be Vandy's 51st consecutive SEC game as a dog. Figured that would have changed last season but guess not.
 
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gps_3 said:
Week 6 games:

UK +20.5 @ UGA
Texas -6.5 @ Florida
Vandy +10.5 @ Alabama
OU -45.5 vs Kent St
Miss St +14 @ aTm
Click to expand...

Gonna take a stab at OU and the Over. Local doesn’t reduce correlated plays so figure -46 / O 53.5 worth a stab at +260
 
Two Utes said:
Bama definitely not overlooking them though.
Click to expand...

Hope not having lost as a 23 point favorite last year.

I think the "revenge" factor at all levels is overrated for the most part. Having said that, if Bama doesn't have a significant burr in its ass after Pavia and Vandy last year in Nashville, it never will.
 
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Josh Pate said it in his Sunday night pod, but it seems like DeBoer has flipped a switch since the loss to FSU. Almost like he understands the job now. I think he's right, given the way Alabama has responded since. They are preparing this week as if it is LSU or Florida or Tennessee coming into town. Not sure Vanderbilt has ever had to face a fully invested and prepared Alabama team, or probably any SEC team. They have earned that respect on the field. This is a good opportunity to see how Vandy can handle success. Pavia is a dog for sure, and his teammates share his self belief, so this will be a great barometer game for both programs. If Alabama gets out to a lead, I think they coast. If Alabama plays a clean game, I think they coast. If they make mistakes like last year (pick 6, 2 players wearing same number that negated a Vandy punt, or the sack/fumble in Vandy territory while driving to take the lead), giving them short fields again and stupid penalties, then Vanderbilt will not only be competitive, they will probably win
 
I hope vandy wins just to see the vandy pimp on sec shorts


thats how i find things that bring humor to my life.

i took messy at 14.5
hope i lose
 
Running QB's gives Bama fits. Bama will throw with success even though Vandy has a great front. This game could be high scoring. I hear the revenge factor, but I also know Bama just played Georgia. They should be physically and mentally tired, even if it is just a little. I'm hoping "Pissing Pavia" pulls it off as a fan.
 
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