SEC Week 5

A couple of injury updated from De Boer this morning. Starting safety Malachi Moore (concussion) has been practicing since late last week and he should be good to go. Qua Russaw (starting OLB) injured his leg against Wisconsin. It looked bad on TV, but De Boer said he's been doing some things and he's optimistic he'll be available this weekend. Must have been a low grade high ankle sprain
 
I think the UK/Ole Miss number is pretty sharp. I assume Stoops will try to play keep away and limit possessions. I’m not sure if he can do that against Ole Miss’ front 7, but Ole Miss hasn’t played anyone with an OL built for the run game and a coach who is willing to stick with it. Ole Miss’ secondary might be the weak link, but I don’t think UK has the ability or willingness to test it.

On the other side I think UK can slow Ole Miss’ running game, but I’m not sure how much it will actually matter. Ole Miss has weapons all over the field, and if Kiffin can't get the run game going, I think he will be content to air it out. UK hasn't seen a QB, WRs, and TEs with a coach who will spam them yet.

I would be really surprised if Ole Miss doesn't get in to the 30's. UK probably lands 14-24. 35-17 maybe?

There's a 30% chance of rain in Oxford, but wind shouldn't be a factor.
 
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twinkie13 said:
Y’all made Aubbie vs Oklahoma that? What a line…telling
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Feels pretty short to me. I get that it's on the road, but I'm not sure AU is going to be able to move the ball and score much on OU, especially with how much they turn it over. I thought OU's defense did ok against Tennessee last weekend, and I know AU won't put up as much resistance as Tenn's defense. Having a full week with Hawkins taking QB1 reps will certainly help. AU is a tough place to play, so I could see the young QB getting rattled at times. This is AU's last home game until November, so it feels even more like a must-win than last week did, considering they did not in fact win.
 
Wow, Freeze, not a good look:

Auburn coach Hugh Freeze made it clear that the Tigers lost to a lesser team when they fell 24-14 to Arkansas on Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Speaking Monday night on Tiger Talk with the Auburn Sports Network, Freeze said Auburn's latest home loss, much like the Sept. 7 defeat to Cal, was especially frustrating because of the quality of the opposition.

"I mean no offense whatsoever to Arkansas ... I love [coach] Sam Pittman, I hope he wins the rest of his games, but I'm telling you, the hard truth is if we play them nine more times, we beat them nine times," Freeze said Monday. "That's what's hard to take, and it's hard for our fans, I'm sure, and it's certainly hard for us."
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abcnews.go.com

Arkansas defeat 'hard to take' for Auburn, says Hugh Freeze

abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
That is hilarious coming from freeze who has turned auburn into a total shit show that can’t beat any power 5 team 4 out of 10!!
 
Frank Costanza said:
Guess Bo Wallace and Freeze won't be exchanging Christmas cards.

And first time Bama has been a home dog in 17 years. First thought is I'll happily take the points.
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Sure seems like anytime bama has the offensive weapons they win this matchup, I’m with you gotta take the home doggy
 
gps_3 said:
Feels pretty short to me. I get that it's on the road, but I'm not sure AU is going to be able to move the ball and score much on OU, especially with how much they turn it over. I thought OU's defense did ok against Tennessee last weekend, and I know AU won't put up as much resistance as Tenn's defense. Having a full week with Hawkins taking QB1 reps will certainly help. AU is a tough place to play, so I could see the young QB getting rattled at times. This is AU's last home game until November, so it feels even more like a must-win than last week did, considering they did not in fact win.
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I’ll fade aub pretty much every chance they give me.
 
Based on the mandatory injury reports for conference games, Alabama will have it's full roster at it's disposal on Saturday. I'm not sure if De Boer is playing games by listing players at "probable" with no intention of playing them, but my guess is the conference outlined a fair play protocol/guidelines that is supposed to discourage that kind of gamesmanship. UGA's injury report is more substantial, with Tate Ratledge being out the biggest concern. Mykel Williams is listed as "questionable" and if he doesn't go, or is at diminished capacity/effectiveness, that is a decent sized blow to the UGA defense
 
I'd love to have some in depth insight about the Alabama/UGA game, but I think it just comes down to who you think wins the LOS and makes the fewest mistakes. Really evenly matched teams where I think both defenses have the advantage over the opposing offenses. I've read and listened to a bunch of analysis for the game, and I think people are fooling themselves if they think that either team will all of the sudden improve on something against the best team they've faced. Meaning, I don't think Milroe is going to start hitting the intermediate throws just like I don't think UGA's offense is all of the sudden going to be explosive on offense.

Call me a homer, but I think Alabama wins this game. I've felt all offseason that we'd win this one, while dropping 1 or 2 of the road games. I think where Alabama wins this is their ability to run the ball with Milroe, Miller and Haynes while having the threat of Ryan Williams to keep the UGA defense on their heels. Obviously this is the best defense Alabama has faced, but the new offensive system is one that puts more strain on this type of defense that pretty much plays it straight up. UGA's DL depth is also of concern. UGA is very fast at the LB position and nobody will have much success trying to run sideline to sideline. The secondary has one of the best safeties in the country in Starks, but the rest is young and showed some vulnerabilities against Clemson, but Klubnik was unable to capitalize consistently.

On the flip side, the way Alabama now plays defense in some respects will benefit what UGA wants to do on offense, namely running the ball. It is predicated on havoc and keeping everything in front of the defense and playing with their eyes, rather than the endlessly complicated pattern-match 2 gap scheme that Saban ran. Alabama has been much better at creating pressure than they have in years, especially from the DL. The down side is that there will be "easy" yards for the taking that can result in long drives with a ton of plays. A lot of folks are keying in on a few missed opportunities by opposing QBs against wide open WR in Alabama's first three games, and while technically true, not much is being said that in most of those situations the QB was under tremendous pressure, so having to throw early, or on the run. Beck is at his best when he can throw on schedule, and as we've seen several times in the last two seasons, he throws some dangerous passes when under pressure. He is athletic enough to pick up some yards when things break down, but I don't think Kirby and Bobo envision a game where he is running 7-10 times in a game and being successful. So far, none of their pass catchers has stepped up to fill the huge void left by Bowers and McConkey. I think it's possible that collectively they can be a factor in this game, but like I mentioned above, expecting one of these guys to become "the" guy in this game is wishful thinking.

Special teams I'd call a wash. Both punters are elite, and can both be a huge factor in a game where field position will go a long way. UGA's kicker hasn't missed yet, and while I think Nicholson is elite for Alabama (he did win the Groza last season), he's missed the only attempt he's had this season so if it comes down to him hitting a 46 yarder in the 4th quarter, I'm going to be nervous.

I don't think the game will be high scoring, unless it's an easy Alabama win. I do not think UGA wants to turn this into a track meet because I don't think they can score with Alabama. Alabama can't afford to give UGA the ball over and over after 3 and outs. So I expect a ton of running and trying to shorten the game by both teams. The total is pretty sharp, as I think this ends up being a 24-21, 27-24 type game with Alabama running the ball well enough and pressuring Beck enough to win the game
 
I agree with pretty much all of it, but I didn’t feel this way in the offseason.
I’ll be on Bama, didn’t think I would be
 
twinkie13 said:
I agree with pretty much all of it, but I didn’t feel this way in the offseason.
I’ll be on Bama, didn’t think I would be
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I was pretty optimistic with DeBoer, but he's exceeded my expectations to this point. Time will tell of course, but you can't ask much more as a Bama fan.
 
I think it was in the overall discussion thread, but someone mentioned taking Texas 1h ATS and 1H TT over? Sounds pretty good to me. Are we expecting Arch still with a bye week on deck?
 
satnightfever05 said:
Soooo should A&M really be laying 6 to a pretty good O team in Arkansas? A&M not exactly a world beater on offense either.
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I feel like this game has traditionally favored the underdog, which has normally been Arkansas. I don't think they covered last year, but it seems that I remember crazy stuff happening in this matchup
 
gps_3 said:
I feel like this game has traditionally favored the underdog, which has normally been Arkansas. I don't think they covered last year, but it seems that I remember crazy stuff happening in this matchup
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Yea the dog is 4-2 ATS L6- but A&M (the fav) has covered 2 straight.

A&M also 3-9 L12 games ATS
 
Alabama now favored. Not sure if it's due to money/bets coming in, or if there are more injury/mono concerns with UGA. Maybe Mykel Williams is unlikely to play?
 
gps_3 said:
I think it was in the overall discussion thread, but someone mentioned taking Texas 1h ATS and 1H TT over? Sounds pretty good to me. Are we expecting Arch still with a bye week on deck?
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Have not seen since yesterday but coach said decision had not been made
 
ESPN announces that Mrs Terry is the guest picker for Gameday. UGA walking into a buzzsaw with the way Tuscaloosa will be rocking. Probably going to be the best environment since the 2019 LSU game. Thankfully that team isn't the one coming in for a visit
 
Texas vs. Alabama

Football Game Preview: Carver Birmingham Rams vs. Permian Panthers​


The Carver Birmingham Rams are taking a road trip to challenge the Permian Panthers at 7:00 p.m. on Friday. Both teams are still undefeated after three-games, but that won't be the case come Friday.

Carver Birmingham's defense heads into the matchup hoping to repeat the dominance they displayed on Friday. They blew past Hayden 40-0 on the road. Given the Rams' advantage in MaxPreps' Alabama football rankings (they are ranked 88th, while the Wildcats are ranked 263rd), the result wasn't entirely unexpected.

Tarjuan Johnson and De'Jarvis Wade Ll were among the main playmakers for Carver Birmingham as the former rushed for 120 yards and a touchdown while picking up 7.5 yards per carry and the latter threw for 150 yards and two touchdowns. The dominant performance gave Johnson a new career-high in rushing yards.

Meanwhile, Permian narrowly escaped with a victory as the squad sidled past Tascosa 50-48.
 
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