SEC Week 4 Discussion
- Thread starter gps_3
- Start date
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Surprised CBS didn't take TN/UF
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Really? Or you fucking around?
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Really...I suppose the Big 8 rivalry could be viewed as an equal rivalry. Just know the hate between UF & TN used to be real.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Maybe just my left/west prejudice but I think ARK and TAMU is much much more interesting
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
Hasn’t been in quite some time. Plus, as a Vols fan, I’m extremely happy we weren’t the 2:30 CBS game.
Ticketwindow
Pretty much a regular
Joe Milton could have been one hell of an outfielder with that arm.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Won't be the first, won't be the last
Crazy people still think arm strength is so huge when the two best QBs in history are Brady and Montana
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Yea, that’s my worry
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Under in A&M / Pig.
20 may win the game.
20 may win the game.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
I would tend to agree, interesting though it has been bet up to 48 from 44.5 opener.
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
Yeah - CK said it best yesterday “not many rich people betting unders on mid 40 totals in CFB”
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Only time I recall firing at low-mid 40s unders with confidence and success is the military academy games.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Somebody asked last week about teams' ATS record the week after playing Alabama. Just looking at last year, only 2 of the 11 SEC teams covered the week after playing Alabama. Ironically, in both instances, the team off the loss covered by beating Florida (aTm and LSU). Even though UT is a rivalry for Florida, it wouldn't be the most surprising thing for the Gators to come out a little flat.
Looking at schedules, some things I came across that may be useful for finding flat spots, look aheads, etc
Alabama: @ UF, S Miss, Ole Miss, @ aTm. If the game Saturday had not gone like it did, I would point to this week as a look ahead, even though Saban is constantly preaching to treat all opponents the same. I can't imagine the Florida film study was very much fun for a few starters on defense, so I'd look for a pretty strong effort Saturday, as well as some new faces. I'll likely be on the 1H bets as usual
Big sandwich game for AU and the only breather until their bye. Pretty brutal run here: @Penn St, Ga St, @LSU, UGA, @Arky. I do feel like AU has done a good job winning these games easily in the past, so may tread lightly or not at all
Arkansas starts a pretty gnarly stretch this week: aTm (neutral) @UGA, @Ole Miss, AU
Possible lookahead for UGA against Vandy with Arkansas and AU on deck, but probably doesn't matter if Vandy can't score
UK has Florida on deck, which has always been a tough one for the Cats. Hasn't beaten them at home since 1986. UK can't afford to sleepwalk against SCAR, but I can see next week being their Super Bowl
Tough stretch coming up for Tenny: @UF, @Mizzou, SCAR, Ole Miss, @Alabama
May not mean anything, but felt it was worth discussing for a few of these teams.
Looking at schedules, some things I came across that may be useful for finding flat spots, look aheads, etc
Alabama: @ UF, S Miss, Ole Miss, @ aTm. If the game Saturday had not gone like it did, I would point to this week as a look ahead, even though Saban is constantly preaching to treat all opponents the same. I can't imagine the Florida film study was very much fun for a few starters on defense, so I'd look for a pretty strong effort Saturday, as well as some new faces. I'll likely be on the 1H bets as usual
Big sandwich game for AU and the only breather until their bye. Pretty brutal run here: @Penn St, Ga St, @LSU, UGA, @Arky. I do feel like AU has done a good job winning these games easily in the past, so may tread lightly or not at all
Arkansas starts a pretty gnarly stretch this week: aTm (neutral) @UGA, @Ole Miss, AU
Possible lookahead for UGA against Vandy with Arkansas and AU on deck, but probably doesn't matter if Vandy can't score
UK has Florida on deck, which has always been a tough one for the Cats. Hasn't beaten them at home since 1986. UK can't afford to sleepwalk against SCAR, but I can see next week being their Super Bowl
Tough stretch coming up for Tenny: @UF, @Mizzou, SCAR, Ole Miss, @Alabama
May not mean anything, but felt it was worth discussing for a few of these teams.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
I think they’ll be ready. I watched Liam Coen's interview and he said Chatt had played their 2 safeties high to prevent the long ball and Levis threw right into it on his two INTs. I'm sure their watching film and coming up with a gameplan to help Levis out more to prevent him throwing into INTs like that...He talked a lot about not setting up the pass by establishing the run and they will get back to that. On defense, I also know Jordan Wright was held out and JJ Weaver was not given many snaps to help save them somewhat for next week so I do think our defense will play a little better with those two back in the lineup. Is it all going to be good enough to get out of Columbia with a win?? I'm encouraged that my own data shows the line is about right...since we can't kick any FGs worth a damn, I'll keep my predicted score for Ky in touchdown denominations and say KY-35, USCjr-24.
BOL in what you decide!
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I played Pitt v. Tennessee a couple of weeks ago and as soon as Hooker came in I wished I hadn't. It turned out Pitt covered, barely, but Tennessee was far better with Hooker in there and the only reason Pitt covered is they had a lead when Hooker came in. I doubt Pitt would have won if Hooker had started
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
There was a couple times last week, I don't know how many of us watched Tennessee play Tenn Tech, I know a couple of us did. Anyway, there were times with Hooker, he had the luxury of taking the snap and literally just standing still for a couple seconds while he stared down the receiver he wanted to throw the ball to, waiting until said receiver was open and calmly threw him the ball. I thought, "man, you are lucky you are playing Tennessee Tech!" But agreed, Hooker is better QB for them. Sometimes you wonder with these transfer QBs, what kind of expectation did the player have when coming. They are both transfers so I don't know. Heupel was probably thinking, we need some QBs, get them here, tell them whatever you have to. Like Guarantano going to Washington State. Starting him and sticking with him (until injury) week 1 vs Utah State is stupid. de Laura makes that offense go. Rollo has to know that. What Guarantano told something when he came there? No way he beat de Laura out in camp. de Laura did have DUI in the spring, so maybe that was his punishment, only thing that makes sense. When we see one QB starting when we think it should be the other one.
JROCK1966
Pretty much a regular
2 years ago when my Cats played Va. Tech in a bowl game, all I know is Hooker was making play after play I had rarely seen that year against our defense. Specifically it was up tempo Hooker was running with the rest of their offense that had us beat. If not for the outstanding individual play of Lynn Bowden for my Cats, Hooker most certainly would have led the Hokies to the win. Last year I was expecting more from the Hokies but for whatever reason it didn’t happen. When he transferred to UT I thought he was the obvious QB choice. Not sure what has happened but Hooker is certainly capable from wut I’ve seen.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea I was on pitt too, I was mostly pretty confident but hooker did worry me some. I def think he made it more a game than it woulda been if Milton remained in.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Longer-term, starting in 2009, teams were 67-48-2 ATS the game after playing Alabama. They wre not as good without an extra week of rest: 51-39-2. I'm not sure when I ran those numbers, but I believe those numbers covered the 10 seasons from 2009-2018.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I must be a lot older than you.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Leather helmets?
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
UTSUX
Old-timer
I really Like LSU against a one demanial Offense.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Love fading Leach so this one becomes obvious but not sure why it's just stuck at 2.5, might be one to just take the ML but someone sees something I don't which makes me skittish
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Little bit of a revenge factor here off last years game as well…
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
Hooker was brought in by the previous staff. I guess it's easier for everyone to say Hooker, but as I said, it's going to be Joe. Just have to hope Joe can finally hit on a deep ball or two. Hooker would make me less likely to bet on the Vols - especially against FL.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Nice. Although could be a situation where I’d been better off passing, lol. 20 does seem like a lot for gators coming off what I imagine was a heart breaking loss to Bama, a game they easily could have won if they don’t spot bama the huge 1st qrtr. I’ve always thought Hooker was a gamer, think his skill set and competitiveness will keep vols in a lot of games they would get run out the stadium with Milton.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Already moved to 19.5 for me and I jumped, only see it moving lower
Great situation fading a team so close to but losing to Bama and not sure who else is higher on the Vols motivational chart than UF
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Laid off 20 hoping it might get to 3 TDs but the QB announcement, it's not getting there. Gamblers know the difference in value between Hooker and Milton
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Wasn’t lsu the only team that let leach offense just pick them apart last year? If memory serves me right they sat back in a zone and just got gashed?
