SEC Week 4 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
SEC games for week 4 (will add lines and totals when my local posts them):

Thurs:

AU (-8') @ Kansas St

Sat:

Florida (+14') @ Alabama
UGA (-39') vs Troy
aTm (-31') @ SMU
Missouri (-14') vs Indiana
Arkansas (-14) vs No Illy
Miss St (+10) @ LSU
S. Carolina (-21') @ Vanderbilt

Bye: Tenn, Ole Miss, UK

Discuss...
 
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Potential trap/lookahead games this week:

UGA - has Tennessee next, just lost @ SCAR
SCAR - big win last week vs UGA, plays Mizzou next, although Vandy is dogshit and I will never trust them with my $, but may avoid SC
Missouri - lookahead to SC, which kept them from undefeated regular season in a 2 OT loss that they should have won
 
Looked at that Scary/Vandy game as perhaps a good situational spot then I remembered it is Vandy. Simply have to stay away, amirite?>
 
Week 3 review:

I had a few takeaways from Saturday. First, it is amazing how much more football I watch and remember on Sunday when I have an infant at the house. Less booze and more couch time FTW.

Huge overreaction to UGA's week one win over Clemson. They are good, but not the clear class of the SEC as ESPN was touting for 2 weeks. How they and SC fare against Mizzou will determine the East

SC is a good team, but I expect them to drop another game

Mizzou looks like last season was no fluke thus far

Tennessee put up a pretty good fight in a relatively hopeless situation. They are heading in the right direction and getting all that youth good experience will prove valuable, but I expect it will be next year. I could see them knocking off one of the big 3 in the East though

Florida is not one of those big three. Yes UK is improved, but they have no business taking you to OT at home. And to have been screwed out of a delay penalty at that.

LOL at vandy. They are on my auto-fade list, but will likely stay away bc SC loves to play flat in these situations

Arkansas won't compete in the West, but they aren't as easy an out as they've been the last 2 seasons.

Not much to take away from Ole Miss, LSU, Alabama, Miss St, and aTm from the games Saturday. Did what they should have done
 
B.A.R. said:
Looked at that Scary/Vandy game as perhaps a good situational spot then I remembered it is Vandy. Simply have to stay away, amirite?>
Click to expand...

As of today, yes. But I will probably talk myself into taking SC.
 
I saw the AU @ KSt game opened around a TD, and has been bet up to 8 or 8'? I don't understand this line. The lines guys know that AU has covered something like 15 games in a row, and during their last game, the announcers kept talking about if you bet $100 on the start of the streak and let it ride, you'd have a million or so. They have to know that the public will be all over AU, right? Are they setting this line to get heavy AU action and expect a KSt cover/win? Does it matter? My initial thought was that while, yes, AU could lose this game, but they've had a week off to prepare, and they have to have heard every talking head pick this as a potential loss since the schedule came out. Something just seems off to me
 
At first glance, I like Alabama at 14 or less, but will need 17+ to think about taking the Gators.

I've been all set to bet on KSt all season, but that line is fishy. Would love some discussion on it

I think Mizzou is undervalued, and I would like to make more $ on them while the books catch up. Based on what I saw out of Indiana last week, I like Mizzou ATS, TT over, maybe game over

I'd like to bet against UGA coming off the tough loss, and with Tennessee on deck, but Troy has lost to UAB, Duke and Abilene Christian. UGA's 2nd team could probably cover with ease

Arkansas got a huge boost with the win last week, and I could see it giving them momentum going into this game. The schedule isn't kind going forward, so they can't afford to take any game off.

If aTm is awake, they win by 45+. Lost on them last week, but looking at giving them the Baylor treatment (ATS, TT O) once again

I think the LSU line is on target. Miss St has been uninspiring so far, but LSU certainly doesn't look unbeatable. If Miss St wants to be considered in the top half of the west, they're going to have to start winning these games. Lean points

As noted earlier, would like to fade SC, but never putting my money on Vanderbilt. Ever.
 
Georgia looked the better of the two twams in s carolinas house. Richt runs four times and uga wins....or if they spot the ball correctly on fourth down. That is with s carolina getting the dream start scenario to that game. There might be overreaction to the current quality of the conference overall but not with uga standing within it. Imo anyway. Tamu toyed with opponent and watched bama game twice and they slept walked. Arkansas is an avg football team which won't get them far in best conference but it will keep the positive momentum going for bb
 
Agree Jimmy. As disgusted as I was with Florida this last weekend, there are also many reasons to still like Florida +points this week
 
HammersSpreads said:
Agree Jimmy. As disgusted as I was with Florida this last weekend, there are also many reasons to still like Florida +points this week
Click to expand...

Kentucky was a classic look-ahead game for the Gators. And, oh, by the way, as much as people made not want to believe it, Kentucky is a very respectable football team.

How well would have Alabama have played Kentucky this week with Florida on deck? My guess is not much better.

I think Alabama will ultimately pull this game out, but I think it'll be a dogfight.

Before the season began I said I didn't think Alabama would cover the spreads in any of their first 4 games, and I stick by that even though they may have covered against FAU depending upon the number you got, and weather your book honored the bet.
 
U (-8') @ Kansas St. Auburn should kill KSU if they come to play. Shouldn't be close


Sat:


Florida (+14') @ Alabama. Florida can't score enough points to win. Cover, maybe
UGA (-39') vs Troy. Rout, but can they cover?
aTm (-31') @ SMU same as above
Missouri (-14') vs Indiana Rout . Will play Mizzu
Arkansas (-14) vs No Illy Classic letdown game possibility
Miss St (+10) @ LSU. Could be a close game . Won't touch LSU
S. Carolina (-21'). Another letdown game . Passing
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Kentucky was a classic look-ahead game for the Gators. And, oh, by the way, as much as people made not want to believe it, Kentucky is a very respectable football team.

How well would have Alabama have played Kentucky this week with Florida on deck? My guess is not much better.

I think Alabama will ultimately pull this game out, but I think it'll be a dogfight.

Before the season began I said I didn't think Alabama would cover the spreads in any of their first 4 games, and I stick by that even though they may have covered against FAU depending upon the number you got, and weather your book honored the bet.
Click to expand...


Ya I wrote what I thought about it in my post this week. But I also haven't watched all the game. Saw bits and pieces of it, and watched the last few minutes and OT. I'm going back and watching the whole game now bc there's a few things I want to see from them to really get excited about a bet this week.

You are probably right about the flat spot. I had a hard time believing a team thag just got waxed last year and with UK talking trash all week that they would come out looking ahead.....but after all these are still college kids so high probability that is the case
 
Eh maybe I was a little hard on the Gators. Driskel does think too much at times, & his INT was miserable. He also got lucky on another ball that didn't get picked in the 2nd half. But I believe he started 9-22 & finished 16-23....I think 1 thing is certain, Roper is learning Driskels strengths & weaknesses. Driskel's long ball needs work. 1st half they had 4 dropped balls that stalled drives inside UK territory, all which should have been caught. Towles for UK can throw a nice ball also....they had 3 plays that were for over 30yds where he put the ball perfectly into pretty good coverage. But Florida's secondary is a question mark outside of VH3....lots of guys that can play the run, but they bust coverage. I did count 4 balls that should have been picked off probably....but overall blown coverage & some nice deep balls by Towles kept UK trucking. Really impressed with UK's QB position.

As for this game of UF/Bama.....2 TD's is too much IMO. A big reason of this is b/c I would have a hard time backing Bama when they play hurry up offenses until they actually show they can stop it or slow it down enough. Florida's front 7 is still really good. I'll go more into depth later in the week on my thread, but Florida does have an offense now that has the potential to give Bama problems, and Florida's defense is still very good....although they have spots that need to be shored up. Most exciting match up = Cooper vs VH3....that should be a doozy.

This was a game that I had circled in the preseason that I planned on betting big on....now it's just a matter of if I've seen enough to do so I suppose.
 
Find a way to slow down Amari Cooper and stop Bama? Easier said than done but maybe UF has the guys to do it.


I'll be at the game Thursday night in Manhattan. I'd love to see it happen but I don't think KSU has the athletes to pull it off. Cats do well against the spread but now the power running spread. See the OU game last year in Manhattan. Surely Auburn isn't going to let Lockett beat them and Waters will get killed if he has to run 15 times again. Hoping for some Snyder magic in front a raucous crowd but like I said Im not confident at all. I'm sure after 11 beers Thursday afternoon I'll be singing a different tune though....
 
Gates open at 1:30.....they want yall there early, pounding beers & getting loud!!! Ha Ha. I have faith in your Cats....I will be rooting hard for ya
 
I won't bet LSU because I am scared it will be close, then all my homer dumb wagering friends will all have the 500 dollar bet cashed in the 4th when LSU covers that game again and tell me I am an idiot and think I am so "sharp".....or is this the year?

not playing that one
 
For Alabama to blow the doors off of Florida aka Cover, they are going to have to make passes to Secondary Receivers. Sure Cooper will get yards but VH3 will PROBABLY keep him from making big plays.
 
GatorsLeafsBills said:
For Alabama to blow the doors off of Florida aka Cover, they are going to have to make passes to Secondary Receivers. Sure Cooper will get yards but VH3 will PROBABLY keep him from making big plays.
Click to expand...

Or be able to establish a running game. Everyone is keying on the Cooper v Hargreaves game within the game, but UF's ability to stop the run will determine if they can win or keep it close
 
gps_3 said:
Or be able to establish a running game. Everyone is keying on the Cooper v Hargreaves game within the game, but UF's ability to stop the run will determine if they can win or keep it close
Click to expand...

I agree 100%. I think the defense will be able to stop the RBs, Sims is a different story
 
I just wanna know who was covering Garrett Johnson while he was going off for 6 catches 154yds & 2tds. Cuz whoever that dude is, SUCKS & I'm sure whoever the 2nd WR for Bama is, a combo of he & Sims or Coker is > Towles & Garrett Johnson. But what do I know *shrugs*
 
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And yes I know Neal Brown's AirRaid creates a world of difference schemewise to Kiffin's stuff but look that Frosh was wide open like ALL night with no running game to speak of. With Cooper assuredly drawing extra attention & the run game drawing the same extra attention, Mr Toast will be 1 on 1 with a REALLY fast dude (jones or White). Goodnight Irene
 
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