SEC Week 3 Discussion

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Will post this week's lines when my local releases them

Week 3:

Alabama -48 vs S. Miss
Missouri -9' vs UCF
Vanderbilt -17 vs UMass
Arkansas +2' @ Texas Tech
UGA -6 @ S. Carolina
Ole Miss -27 vs La-Lafayette
Miss St -14' @ S. Alabama
LSU -31 vs La-Monroe
UK +18 @ UF
Tennessee +20' @ Oklahoma
aTm -31 vs Rice
 
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Not a very good week of games for the second week in a row. The marquee game has lost a little luster with how bad SCAR has looked, but this is one of the two most important games of the season for the SEC East. I would love to see Tennessee beat OU, just so Stoops would shut his mouth (unlikely anyway), but OU will probably win this one and he can talk about how much better the Big 12 is than the SEC, and still nobody will care. What is Miss St doing playing at S. Alabama? Great get for the Jags, as this will easily be the biggest home game in program history. They can probably keep it close after seeing MSU's defense against the other in-state satellite school last Saturday. Arkansas @ Tex tech is somewhat interesting, and looks like Ark has a chance, more because of how Tech has looked than anything Arkansas has done to date. Interested to see how UF's offense looks against a team not named E. Michigan, and the Cats are improved. Other games are yawners. Maybe the Alabama game is interesting to see the split of plays for the 2 QBs in preparation for Florida.
 
Any other time, Rice would put up a fight. They don't have the gamers this year.
Myles Garrett will be in the Owl backfield all night.
 
garrett is a freakin monster, btw. that defense looks better than advertised.

like south bama for some reason.
 
One thing I've done in the past is look at the schedule and circle games that are what some would call trap games. I consider these to be games that are in between two big opponents, a look ahead, coming off a big game, or a game at the end of a tough stretch. I'll list the games and dates and reasons why for each team. I try to avoid games that are against terrible opponents, ie FCS teams, because even in a look ahead, it will likely still be a blowout. I won't include any for Vandy because they can't afford to look past anybody on their schedule:

Alabama - 9/13 v S. Miss (look ahead to UF), 10/11 @Ark (in between @ Mississippi and aTm, beat Ark 52-0 last 2 seasons)
Auburn - 9/27 vs La Tech (in between @ Kansas St and v LSU, although it is homecoming), 10/25-11/29 play S. Car, @ Ole Miss, v aTm, @ UGA, v Samford, @ Alabama
LSU - 9/27 vs N. Mexico St (after Miss St, before @AU, @UF) 10/18 v UK (after @AU, @UF and before Ole Miss)
Ole Miss - 9/27 vs Memphis (week before v Alabama) 10/18 v UT (HC, but after Alabama, @ aTm, and before @ LSU and v AU)
Miss St - 9/13 @ S. Alabama (look ahead to @ LSU), 11/22 v Vandy (between @ Alabama and @ Ole Miss)
aTm - 9/27-10/18 play Ark, @ Miss St, Ole Miss, @ Alabama
Arkansas - 10/25 vs UAB (HC, between Alabama, UGA, and @ Miss St)

UGA - 9/20 v Troy (between SC and UT) 11/8 @ UK (between UF and AU)
SCAR - 9/20 @ Vandy (between UGA and Mizzou) 11/22 vs S. Alabama (between @ UF and @ Clemson)
UF - 9/13 vs UK (look ahead to @ Alabama), 11/22 E. Kentucky (between SC and @ FSU)
Mizzou - 9/20 v Indiana (look ahead to @ SC, also revenge game) 10/25 Vandy (HC, after UGA, @ UF)
Tennessee - 9/13-10/4 play @ Oklahoma, BYE, @ UGA, vs UF; 10/18-11/1 play @ Ole Miss, v Alabama, @ SCAR
UK - 10/11 v ULM (after Vandy, SC, and before @ LSU) 9/27-11/15 play VU, SC, ULM, @ LSU, Miss St, @ Mizzou, UGA, @ UT

Obviously not all of these are actionable and will greatly depend on how they are lined, but a good start to look at games where a team may be in a look ahead, sandwich, or just beat up from a rough stretch of games
 
let's talk uga. hit -6 and think it's a steal. home field or not, i don't know how the cocks can stop gurley. even if they load 8 in the box, mason is gonna have some options going against that secondary.
 
Elbutre88 said:
let's talk uga. hit -6 and think it's a steal. home field or not, i don't know how the cocks can stop gurley. even if they load 8 in the box, mason is gonna have some options going against that secondary.
Click to expand...

Something just smells about that line. I don't know what the GOTY line was preseason, but I have to assume SC was favored by a FG, if not more, so a pretty big change in 2 weeks. I doubt UGA is as good as everyone has made them out to be, and I'm not sure SC is as bad, though there is more evidence pointing to that than just the aTm debacle. The Aggies did most of their damage in the air, as did ECU, so I think it comes down to Gurley being able to run on SC, or Mason having to make the throws to win. If SC can limit Gurley, and Mason has to throw to set up their run game, I'm not that confident in UGA to win, nevermind cover a TD. Gurley had a great game last season, but that was with Aaron Murray at QB. SC has changed to a 3-4 defense this season, and I'm not sure they are running it well enough to stop a ground attack like Gurley and UGA. I'm likely not betting this game until I see what the line does, if I bet it all. I can see a low scoring game, and if the line goes to 7+, I'll look at taking Spurrier.
 
might be 180 degrees from you on this one. uga's running game is clearly good, but it ain't just gurley. this o line has shown up this year, and any questions marks i had about their experience is gone after watching the clemson game. i am pretty high on clemson's D line, but 4 quarters of gurley is gonna hurt anyone.

mason has more options throwing the ball then i originally thought. sc had to replace 3 CBs, and it hasn't been pretty. the safety position and LB squad is up there, but they're gonna have to load the box up to stop gurley, meaning those CBs are gonna be on an island against a couple big, tall WRs.
 
Elbutre88 said:
might be 180 degrees from you on this one. uga's running game is clearly good, but it ain't just gurley. this o line has shown up this year, and any questions marks i had about their experience is gone after watching the clemson game. i am pretty high on clemson's D line, but 4 quarters of gurley is gonna hurt anyone.

mason has more options throwing the ball then i originally thought. sc had to replace 3 CBs, and it hasn't been pretty. the safety position and LB squad is up there, but they're gonna have to load the box up to stop gurley, meaning those CBs are gonna be on an island against a couple big, tall WRs.
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Don't think we're 180 degrees different, and I just said Gurley for brevity. UGA has a solid O-line and Gurley is just one of 3 RBs that can hurt you. I'm just saying that after one game that was evenly played for 3 quarters, UGA is all of the sudden the clear favorite in the conference and a national favorite? They may very well end up just that, but I still think it's early. UGA has good WR, but how good is Mason? I didn't see the game and the box score doesn't say much. If SC can't stop Gurley et al, then Mason/passing game is pretty much immaterial. If SC can limit the run game, then I don't know that Mason can beat them. Maybe he can, I just don't know. SC has a pretty experienced offense. Is UGA's new defense really that good? Again, I don't know. I do know that the line is much higher than anyone would have guessed 3 weeks ago. Probably a bit of an overreaction, but SC didn't inspire a lot of confidence against ECU. UGA has been sitting around reading their accolades and watching talking heads place them in the final 4. My guess is that SC looks better than they have, and UGA isn't quite the world beaters they have been proclaimed. I would still pick UGA to win, but I think it's close and wouldn't be shocked at an SC win. Like I said, I don't know that I'll be on a side, but I do have some interest in the under, depending on the #
 
Streakin said:
If Coker sees one snap in meaningful game for BAMA, I will never understand it.
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I think it's too early to judge Coker, but for the purposes of winning this season, Blake Sims is clearly ahead. By quite a lot
 
I did this quick, the numbers don't add up exact to the team total of 328, but it is close enough for the point. UGA's rushing yards vs Clemson by quarter was something like:

1st: 35
2nd: -13 (only 3 possessions and 1 of those was with :48 left in the half)
3rd: 68
4th: 211

The 4th qrt is where the flood gates opened on Clemson D. Clemson O had exactly 1 first down the entire second half, 6 three-and-outs and 1 four-and-out.

Not saying that SC will necessarily limit UGA running game early or often, but am saying that offensive ineffectiveness directly lead to the Bulldog run game success as much as anything else when looking back at that Clem-UGA game.
 
Hey S---K I've got a question. Or anyone for that matter.

Is is there a website where y'all get those detailed box scores?? Such as yards gained per quarter, etc etc??
 
Ya I've always used cfbstats.com.

I don't think they have detailed box scores that say things like (for example) yards gained in a quarter, rush yards gained in the 2ndqtr, pass yards gained in the 3rd qtr, etc....

i may be blind and just not found them on those websites y'all suggested though
 
s--k said:
I did this quick, the numbers don't add up exact to the team total of 328, but it is close enough for the point. UGA's rushing yards vs Clemson by quarter was something like:

1st: 35
2nd: -13 (only 3 possessions and 1 of those was with :48 left in the half)
3rd: 68
4th: 211

The 4th qrt is where the flood gates opened on Clemson D. Clemson O had exactly 1 first down the entire second half, 6 three-and-outs and 1 four-and-out.

Not saying that SC will necessarily limit UGA running game early or often, but am saying that offensive ineffectiveness directly lead to the Bulldog run game success as much as anything else when looking back at that Clem-UGA game.
Click to expand...

That is a great analysis of that game. It was 24-21 with 10 minutes left. I'm not nearly as high on Clemson as I was last year either.
 
HammersSpreads said:
Hey S---K I've got a question. Or anyone for that matter.

Is is there a website where y'all get those detailed box scores?? Such as yards gained per quarter, etc etc??
Click to expand...

espn no?
Click to expand...

Yeah for that I just did a quick run through on ESPN's play-by-play and punched UGA's runs into a calculator.

There are alot of good stat sites, but it always seems like there is something that you want that they just don't have. In this case for the 4th qrt, yards by quarter could've came close to telling the same story as just about every play Georgia ran in the 4th qrt there was a run.
 
And that is by no means a "lucky" way to win a game. Alabama, auburn, and several other offenses are designed to wear out opponents and run away with a comfortable victory. I'm just not buying all the UGA hype until I see them do it again
 
Elbutre88 said:
who do you have higher, clemson's d line, or sc's d line?
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I don't know anything about Clemson, but SC has struggled switching to the 3-4 it would seem, though their run defense appears to be better than the pass defense through 2 games, but why run when you can pass so effectively?
 
i guess i'm wondering how sc's d line doesn't get worn down like clemson did. if the dawgs pound the rock and sc has to put 8 in the box, i like their chances at completing passes against sc's corners. uga's defense is bigger concern to me than their offense.
 
I agree that UGA is going to run, was speaking to aTm and ECU pass yards>>>run yards
 
Thanks for all the help with the stats guys. Appreciate it.


I agree with most of y'all on this SC/Geo game too. Both teams are gonna want/try to run the ball. Mike Davis wasn't healthy for a&m game, but that wasn't why they lost.....the got pounded bc they weren't prepared at all (among other things)
 
Elbutre88 said:
uga now -5.5 on 5dimes.
Click to expand...
Jorja definitely got the early money.




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s--k said:
I did this quick, the numbers don't add up exact to the team total of 328, but it is close enough for the point. UGA's rushing yards vs Clemson by quarter was something like:

1st: 35
2nd: -13 (only 3 possessions and 1 of those was with :48 left in the half)
3rd: 68
4th: 211

The 4th qrt is where the flood gates opened on Clemson D. Clemson O had exactly 1 first down the entire second half, 6 three-and-outs and 1 four-and-out.

Not saying that SC will necessarily limit UGA running game early or often, but am saying that offensive ineffectiveness directly lead to the Bulldog run game success as much as anything else when looking back at that Clem-UGA game.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. Thanks to fuckups by Southwest Airlines, I didn't get to see the game, but I listened on the radio, and Clemson's average starting field position in the 2H was like the 12-yard line. Georgia won the game with special teams and Morris's reluctance to open it up deep in his own territory. Clemson's D wore down, and Georgia started scoring with ease in the 4Q. Ironically, if the game hadn't broken for halftime it could have been broken the other way, as Georgia's D had tired and was getting pushed around toward the end of the 2Q.
 
s--k said:
Yeah for that I just did a quick run through on ESPN's play-by-play and punched UGA's runs into a calculator.

There are alot of good stat sites, but it always seems like there is something that you want that they just don't have. In this case for the 4th qrt, yards by quarter could've came close to telling the same story as just about every play Georgia ran in the 4th qrt there was a run.
Click to expand...

I imagine if I had been able to watch the 4Q of the Clemson-UGA game it would have looked a lot like the 4Q of last year's USC-UGA game.
 
Any thoughts on the other games? I have a feeling Stoops will do everything he can to run it up against Tenny so he can talk about how much better the big12 is than the SEC
 
he's gonna try his heart out, guarantee that. the youth of that tenny o line is what would scare me. they haven't really traveled for shit.
 
Im thinking ULL and four touchdowns has a lot of value. They have good lines, terrific qb, wr, two real good rbs, hence the total higher. They are going to score a bit. Just not a fan of IMO overrated HC and QB of ole miss.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Im thinking ULL and four touchdowns has a lot of value. They have good lines, terrific qb, wr, two real good rbs, hence the total higher. They are going to score a bit. Just not a fan of IMO overrated HC and QB of ole miss.
Click to expand...

Agree....I've been staring at that quite a bit. Seems like a little too many points
 
I dunno if Stoops is going to try to run up the score....but I do think it's a miserable match up for Tennessee. 2/3 of their traveling roster are making their 1st road trip, to Norman for a night game on National TV. The offensive & defensive lines are where the miserable match up is IMO. Only way I can see them keeping it close is finding a way to shut down OU's run game & make Knight & their inexperienced WR's beat them.
Next years game @ Tennessee has potential to be a really good game though IMO.


Other game I cant help but like is Florida. that number should be higher IMO
 
Even though it's 4 weeks away, seeing some interviews with ole miss talking about the Alabama game, so maybe some look ahead
 
LSU WR Travin Dural out this week, in case anyone is looking at that game. He has been the big play guy so far with 4 TDs and 291 yards on only 6 receptions.
 
M.O.T said:
LSU WR Travin Dural out this week, in case anyone is looking at that game. He has been the big play guy so far with 4 TDs and 291 yards on only 6 receptions.
Click to expand...

Twinkie always mentions that Les doesn't run it up on Louisiana schools, so there's that angle as well
 
HammersSpreads said:
Other game I cant help but like is Florida. that number should be higher IMO
Click to expand...

Kentucky has looked better this season, think they win their first SEC game since 2011 this year, and UF is in a look ahead spot. And who knows what UF's offense really looks like?

I'm interested in aTm, over, and TT over. Think they can be like Baylor in that they destroy the overmatched teams. Had them last week, will likely ride them this weekend as well.
 
gps_3 said:
Twinkie always mentions that Les doesn't run it up on Louisiana schools, so there's that angle as well
Click to expand...
I don't think he wants to run it up on anyone to be honest. Remember 4 knees on the ole miss goal line with a bunch of time left in 2011. Generally speaking he wants to see the starters play well, get the backups some good looks, and then shut it down. Determining when exactly those things happen and how many points are scored before hand is the tricky part. In some of these games they've slept through the first half and didn't take control until later in the game. But last week was about as well as I've seen one of his teams play in that type of game in several years, so who knows.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Im thinking ULL and four touchdowns has a lot of value. They have good lines, terrific qb, wr, two real good rbs, hence the total higher. They are going to score a bit. Just not a fan of IMO overrated HC and QB of ole miss.
Click to expand...

HammersSpreads said:
Agree....I've been staring at that quite a bit. Seems like a little too many points
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

Ole MIss was 18/19 in Nashville vs Vandy, so depending what you have for a Vandy homefield at LP field (can't be much) and then for playing in Oxford it likely means that Rebels are favored by more over ULL than they would've over Vandy in Oxford. That doesn't seem right either considering the dumpster fire that Vandy is.

I will have ULL, tend to like them off the loss, a humbling loss, rather than a win actually. Hudspeth says they've heard alot about the potential for the season overall, the down-the-road, how many games can they win, rather than taking one game at a time. Refocusing off the loss might be the best thing to happen for them.

Hudspeth had this to say:

"I just know that the look I see in our guys' eyes is a very hungry attitude. An attitude where they cannot wait to get to practice," he said. "I think they do not feel good about, which they shouldn't, our complete effort as a team.
"Like I said before, it was not a one-person deal. It was a team loss. And I've taken full responsibility of having this team ready," Hudspeth added. "But I know this: We're gonna practice like we're going to the electric chair this week. We're gonna have an unbelievable week of practice."
Click to expand...

Key for ULL should be how well they run the ball. Vandy was able to run, but when they got to 3rd down Rivers couldn't complete a pass. Vandy top two RBs combined for 4.95 on 23 carries (most of the good runs were in the 1st half, not in 'garbage time'). As has been mentioned elsewhere, Boise did gain 399 yards vs Ole Miss D (. Think ULL will have success there and hanging within 4 TDs isn't asking much (even though they lost to LaTech by 28 last week).
 
Ya I've been reading a lot up on the ULL news this week. I heard the electric chair comment lol. I love Hudspeth. You know that cat does lateral dumbbell raises with 50lbs?? He's a beast!!


Anyway, I'm in the same boat as you. I think there's an overreaction to their loss last week, and I know Hudspeth is good ATS after a loss also....something like a 7-2 run I think.
 
Haven't u overlooked another good SEC game, albeit under the radar ? I'm referring to UCF v Mizzou. I would like your thoughts on that one.
Thanks.
 
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