SEC Week 13

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 13 games:

Ole Miss (-9.5/55.5) @ Florida
UGA (-42/55.5) vs UMASS
Tenn (-41.5/53.5) vs UTEP
Kentucky (+20.5/47.5) @ Texas
SCAR vs Wofford
Arkansas (-23/50.5) vs La tech
Mizzou (-8/57.5) @ Miss ST
Alabama (-8/47.5) @ Oklahoma
aTm (-2.5/46.5) @ AU
Vandy (+9/54.5) @ LSU
 
wasn’t expecting 9 in BR.
I’d have to have Vandy and ML.
This LSU team has an extremely poor attitude and is not well coached(obviously). Some of the defensive backs are even worse than thought.
 
The Ole Miss/UF side feels sharp. I may have some interest in the under. Lagway on one wheel against the Ole Miss DL…
 
If that happens, and chalk holds everywhere else, I'm pretty sure that makes is an Alabama/UGA rematch in Atlanta. The more things change...
I've been to too many bama/uga games in the Benz. Are you sure Ole Miss doesn't get in?
 
I've been to too many bama/uga games in the Benz. Are you sure Ole Miss doesn't get in?
I'm pretty sure that if aTm loses to AU and then beats Texas, and all other favorites win, Alabama and UGA will have the 2 highest conference opponent win %. Ole Miss would have beaten 2 SEC teams with 1 win and another with zero. Now if there are other upsets, namely LSU losing out, then that may change things for Alabama, but I think I saw somewhere that as long as Alabama wins out and Mizzou beats one of Miss St or Arky, they are in
 
I feel like this too but I think TAMU gets TX

You going?

Yeah, not feeling good about the matchup right now. We'll see.

We're trying to go but the get-in is $600 plus fees and that's just to sit in another zip code, and lord knows that stadium has them. It's so damn big.

I was at the last Horns / A&M in College Station and promised myself I'd be at the next one. But $750 for a shitty seat? Probably not.
 
10 felt right to me earlier in the week, but the more I hear from the Ole Miss side the more I think it's a little cheap.

LSU closed what last week? -3.5? If you give UF a full 3 for a night game in the Swamp, then the market implied that LSU would -6.5 or -7 on a neutral against UF, right? Ole Miss is -10 and let's give UF a full 3 again for home field (though I think that's high for a noon local kick). That means that Ole Miss would be -6 on a neutral against LSU. This version of LSU versus this version of Ole Miss cannot be 6 on a neutral.
 
I expect there to be some level of chaos these last two weeks, but good luck predicting what it will be. I think the most likely this weekend is AU beating aTm. I guess there's a chance that Ole Miss or Alabama (or both) lose, but I think both of them may have gotten their WTF game out of the way earlier this season.

Ole Miss @ UF - I was out of pocket last Saturday, so didn't see much and honestly didn't even watch the highlight shows like I normally do after. Looking at the box, looks like UF was pretty fortunate to win last week, and especially by DDs. I want to like them here, but with Lagway still not 100% and Ole Miss humming the way they are, I can't take the Gators. I think it will take a total botch by Lane (which is within the realm of possibilities for sure) for Ole Miss to lose. I lean on them covering, but not enough to bet it

UK @ Texas - Outside of the UF game, Texas hasn't looked all that great on offense for a while. And UK has the ability to muck this game up, it's just a matter on if they can do anything on offense. I lean toward a low scoring game here, which would mean taking the points. I haven't looked at the current line, but I would be interested in UK over 21 points and the under.

Mizzou @ Miss St - Here's another one where something crazy could happen. It may not seem like it's important, but a Mizzou loss can definitely impact who goes to Atlanta among the 2 loss SEC teams. I think Mizzou is more solid than good, and Miss St is pretty dreadful. I am assuming Brady Cook is good to go and he will find the Miss St defense more to his liking than those monsters on the SCAR DL. It feels like Drink has been pretty good at winning the ones he's supposed to, and I lean Missouri covering here

Alabama @ OU - On the surface, this looks like a scary game for Alabama. OU's defense has been pretty good all year, especially against the run. Alabama has started to lean into the run game, especially Milroe, the last few weeks, but they are going to find it tough sledding in Norman. And while being on the road is always tougher, I can't imagine Norman is a tougher environment than Neyland or Death Valley. Then factor in all the injuries on OU's OL and WRs, and I don't see a way they score much outside of TO's. Two TDs is a lot to cover and I like the under better anyway

aTm @ AU - If you looked at nothing but stats, you could draw the conclusion that AU is the better team in this one. But stats don't win games, and neither does AU apparently. It's been a while since AU beat a P4 team at home and I think they want this one really badly. I know Alabama is on deck, and the usual circumstance has AU working on that game more than any of their remaining games once the season is lost, but I think Freeze is smart enough to know he's much more likely to get this one than the next one on the road. I do think there can be a little look ahead for the Aggies here. I'm not ready to bet it, but for my it's AU or nothing

Vandy @ LSU - If LSU takes this seriously I think they win easily. Vandy is running out of gas and they haven't had over 300 yards of offense since they played Ball St, and they haven't crossed that threshold against an SEC team other than Alabama. I know LSU struggles with the run game, and Pavia can make them pay with his legs, but I tend to think LSU lets out some frustration here. But if Vandy can hang around early, I do think this could become a game in the 4th quarter. Might be a better candidate to bet live
 
I expect there to be some level of chaos these last two weeks, but good luck predicting what it will be. I think the most likely this weekend is AU beating aTm. I guess there's a chance that Ole Miss or Alabama (or both) lose, but I think both of them may have gotten their WTF game out of the way earlier this season.

Ole Miss @ UF - I was out of pocket last Saturday, so didn't see much and honestly didn't even watch the highlight shows like I normally do after. Looking at the box, looks like UF was pretty fortunate to win last week, and especially by DDs. I want to like them here, but with Lagway still not 100% and Ole Miss humming the way they are, I can't take the Gators. I think it will take a total botch by Lane (which is within the realm of possibilities for sure) for Ole Miss to lose. I lean on them covering, but not enough to bet it

UK @ Texas - Outside of the UF game, Texas hasn't looked all that great on offense for a while. And UK has the ability to muck this game up, it's just a matter on if they can do anything on offense. I lean toward a low scoring game here, which would mean taking the points. I haven't looked at the current line, but I would be interested in UK over 21 points and the under.

Mizzou @ Miss St - Here's another one where something crazy could happen. It may not seem like it's important, but a Mizzou loss can definitely impact who goes to Atlanta among the 2 loss SEC teams. I think Mizzou is more solid than good, and Miss St is pretty dreadful. I am assuming Brady Cook is good to go and he will find the Miss St defense more to his liking than those monsters on the SCAR DL. It feels like Drink has been pretty good at winning the ones he's supposed to, and I lean Missouri covering here

Alabama @ OU - On the surface, this looks like a scary game for Alabama. OU's defense has been pretty good all year, especially against the run. Alabama has started to lean into the run game, especially Milroe, the last few weeks, but they are going to find it tough sledding in Norman. And while being on the road is always tougher, I can't imagine Norman is a tougher environment than Neyland or Death Valley. Then factor in all the injuries on OU's OL and WRs, and I don't see a way they score much outside of TO's. Two TDs is a lot to cover and I like the under better anyway

aTm @ AU - If you looked at nothing but stats, you could draw the conclusion that AU is the better team in this one. But stats don't win games, and neither does AU apparently. It's been a while since AU beat a P4 team at home and I think they want this one really badly. I know Alabama is on deck, and the usual circumstance has AU working on that game more than any of their remaining games once the season is lost, but I think Freeze is smart enough to know he's much more likely to get this one than the next one on the road. I do think there can be a little look ahead for the Aggies here. I'm not ready to bet it, but for my it's AU or nothing

Vandy @ LSU - If LSU takes this seriously I think they win easily. Vandy is running out of gas and they haven't had over 300 yards of offense since they played Ball St, and they haven't crossed that threshold against an SEC team other than Alabama. I know LSU struggles with the run game, and Pavia can make them pay with his legs, but I tend to think LSU lets out some frustration here. But if Vandy can hang around early, I do think this could become a game in the 4th quarter. Might be a better candidate to bet live
I'm on Mizzou -7.5. I know that they got their guts ripped out last week, but this State defense is one of the worst I've ever seen in the SEC. If Mizzou is at all interested, I don't see how this isn't double digits.
 
Yeah, not feeling good about the matchup right now. We'll see.

We're trying to go but the get-in is $600 plus fees and that's just to sit in another zip code, and lord knows that stadium has them. It's so damn big.

I was at the last Horns / A&M in College Station and promised myself I'd be at the next one. But $750 for a shitty seat? Probably not.
Changed game to Saturday
 
Kirby Smart apparently is 0-12 as a fave of 38+. I don't know that I want to run to get UMass +42 but it makes it worth a look. UGA won't spend much time prepping for UMass and probably want to avoid injury. No need for style points and Kirby doesn't really go for them.
 
Kirby Smart apparently is 0-12 as a fave of 38+. I don't know that I want to run to get UMass +42 but it makes it worth a look. UGA won't spend much time prepping for UMass and probably want to avoid injury. No need for style points and Kirby doesn't really go for them.
Interesting stat

Defense was optional that 1st half for the Dawgs lol. Golly.
 
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