SEC Week 12

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 12 games:

South Carolina +19.5 @ aTm
Arkansas +5.5 @ LSU
UK -22.5 vs Tenn Tech
OU +6 @ Alabama
Tennessee -40.5 vs New Mexico St
Florida +15.5 @ Ole Miss
Texas +6 @ UGA
Miss St +7 @ Mizzou
 
survive&advance said:
interested to hear your thoughts on this
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Two good defenses, two limited offenses, though I think Alabama will end up having more success against OU's defense than vice versa. But I do think both teams are going to have to fight for every yard and will likely have to settle for some FGs. Both teams are among the conference best at getting points while in the red zone, while Alabama is the best red zone defense in the conference. All that to say I just think points are going to be hard to come by

Alabama won't be able to run the ball, but that's nothing new. I think we've gotten pretty comfortable with that fact and have still been able to be a pretty strong TOP team, using short passes as an extension of the run game. The two best pass offenses OU has played (only functional ones really) they gave up 393 and 315 pass yards, so their relative weakness on defense lines up with what Alabama does best. I know they are awesome at stopping the run, but I don't think that matters as much because we've been so bad at running anyway. They aren't doing anything that a host of others haven't done. The question will be if our OL can protect, especially against 4-5 man fronts. If they can't, and OU can cover with 7 or even 8 DBs, we won't be able to move up and down the field as easily and will essentially have to stay patient and dink and dunk our way down the field. We've seen more effort in the last 2 games of trying to push the ball vertically more, and it was pretty close against LSU, but we haven't been able to get any consistency there.

I think Alabama will win, and possibly cover, in a relatively low scoring game. I think 2 of the biggest issues for OU here are turnovers and penalties. For the first time in what seems like forever, Alabama is the least penalized team in the conference. We're usually at the bottom of that stat, at least over the last 5 years or so. OU is the most penalized team in the conference. And while Mateer is certainly dynamic and I'm sure as healthy as he's been since the hand injury, he puts the ball in harm's way too much, and Alabama's defense has been really good at getting takeaways, especially in key moments. On the flip side, Alabama hasn't turned it over much at all. I think the only path for OU here is to play a really clean game, and based on this season so far, that seems like an unlikely occurrence. Especially on the road in a homecoming revenge game.
 
survive&advance said:
Yeah certainly not great defenses. But they struggled with worse opponents earlier so wondering if there’s been some improvement to a degree
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They started attacking the perimeter and asking their athletes to beat outmatched guys on the edge. It wouldn't surprise me if Arch's ADOT was single digits in those games. I don't know if they can count on YAC against UGA.
 
Anybody else hearing rumors of Dabo to Arkansas? No clue if it's got any legs, and seems like an interesting fit, but you can definitely see the frustration by Swinney in these press conferences
 
survive&advance said:
Yeah certainly not great defenses. But they struggled with worse opponents earlier so wondering if there’s been some improvement to a degree
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Yes, definite improvement. Sarkisian simplified the offense and pass game for Manning for two reasons - 1.) o-line struggles and 2.) general Manning struggles. That helped things a lot - getting the ball out quickly, et. al. As did playing garbage defenses as mentioned.

Georgia has 14 sacks in its last two games against Texas, just emphasizing that as I could see it being another issue Saturday night.

Smart owns Texas in the same manner Alabama owns Smart. I give Texas a 1 in 4 chance to win the game and about a 2 in 5 to cover. i don't have great expectations so, yeah, maybe "just because" rears its head.
 
Some potentially impactful injuries out there:

Nussmeier won't start and maybe not even play, so it's the Michael Van Buren show against Arky. Not sure what he brings to the table outside of running ability?

R Mason Thomas is doubtful for OU, and Jayden Jackson is questionable. OU has great depth on the DL, but these are two big ones to miss if they hope to disrupt Ty Simpson which is their best path to victory

Florida missing their two best WR

No Pribula again for Mizzou
 
I'm not sure what to think about the game in Athens. I tend to think this is a statement game for UGA, but I'm not sure I trust their offense against the Texas defense, and I don't think the slow starts, especially in big games, is fixed yet. I know the opponent matters, but it looks like Sark has accepted that his offense is what it is and it looked far more functional as of late. UGA isn't especially good at getting to the QB, so even with the weakness on the OL for Texas, it may not be as big a problem as you'd think going up against a UGA defense. All that said, I trust Kirby in big games more than pretty much any other coach as long as he isn't going up against Alabama. I lean UGA, but haven't decided if I play it yet
 
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