SEC Week 12 Discussion
- Thread starter gps_3
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gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Can't see how LSU gets up for this game. You could see how much the win meant by watching the post-game interviews etc. If Ole Miss were a little (maybe a lot) better, I could see an upset, but LSU too good on offense I think.
In year's past, Alabama has rebounded from losses in the regular season pretty well, but with how banged up and inexperienced we are (still), I'm not sold there won't be any hangover effect, especially for an 11 am road game. I'm not sure what they'll do with Tua, I've seen many people say they think Saban should rest him, but that's never been his style. But if Tua does play, I'd expect him to be taken out as soon as they feel comfortable doing so
I am going to watch the number, but I am pretty sure I will be on AU. I don't think UGA's offense can stretch the AU defense like LSU did, and Gus has given Kirby massive problems in the past.
aTm has away games at UGA and LSU in the next 2 weeks, so this is their last home game and a must win. SC may be done for the season.
In year's past, Alabama has rebounded from losses in the regular season pretty well, but with how banged up and inexperienced we are (still), I'm not sold there won't be any hangover effect, especially for an 11 am road game. I'm not sure what they'll do with Tua, I've seen many people say they think Saban should rest him, but that's never been his style. But if Tua does play, I'd expect him to be taken out as soon as they feel comfortable doing so
I am going to watch the number, but I am pretty sure I will be on AU. I don't think UGA's offense can stretch the AU defense like LSU did, and Gus has given Kirby massive problems in the past.
aTm has away games at UGA and LSU in the next 2 weeks, so this is their last home game and a must win. SC may be done for the season.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I will buy the Alabama hangover. Like you say the youth and injuries and spread do make Miss St at home appealing even though I have not bet Miss St once this year.
I can get both sides of the LSU spot - the let down or the shot in the arm. Not sure which way that goes.
I can get both sides of the LSU spot - the let down or the shot in the arm. Not sure which way that goes.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Does LSU keep bombing away to get Joe the Heisman. He may have a strangle hold on the trophy, but a slip up would propel Fields into the conversation as a strong alternate.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I'm curious to see how O manages the next 3 weeks both with Burrow and the team overall.
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
I hate it when great spots are wasted on bad teams. I don't think Ole Miss has enough to keep it within the number given that Rich Rod has basically converted the offense in to a modified Wing T. Also something to consider from a motivational standpoint - Eddie O will want to beat the hell out of Ole Miss. If this were any other game, then I think his players would have a hard time getting re-focused, and they still might, but Orgeron will always want to prove something against Ole Miss.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
It’s tough for sure on LSU.....I was Ole Miss all Saturday, but like most not so sure
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Thanks for chiming in Grove. What’s your tale on
Luke? Long term guy?
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
Hell, I hope not, but unfortunately one of Ross Bjork's last acts as AD was to set Luke and his staff up with insane contracts. I think Ole Miss has to ride him out through this year and probably next year. Tough times.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Yea man. At least you don’t have the Notorious BIG’s biggest fan, but yea.
I like it better when Ole Miss is good
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I always get a kick out of the fact that LSU's primary rival is a team whose primary rival is someone else.
I think it’s just the way things have evolved over the decades. The height of Ole Miss - LSU was back in the 50s and 60s when they regularly met with a lot on the line. I don’t know how they viewed State back then, maybe grove can answer. 2003 is the only time in recent memory where both had a lot on the line in this game, otherwise it’s more nastalgic than anything.
Tulane and LSU also used to be much bigger. It took a while for the programs to go in opposite directions after Tulane left the conference, but that hasn’t been a big deal in football since the early 80’s either.
Tulane and LSU also used to be much bigger. It took a while for the programs to go in opposite directions after Tulane left the conference, but that hasn’t been a big deal in football since the early 80’s either.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I've won more money on Old Miss this year than any other team except K State so I like them this week. I said this on a couple of other threads after the first week he played, but Ole Miss is a lot better team when the freshman QB is on the field. They seem to play a little better each week and the fact the game is at night is a big factor. My favorite proposition is an SEC team at home at night in a big game.
I don't see Bama breathing fire this week, but Miss State is just not good enough to bet on in my opinion, even in a spot like this. Seems to me like they lose a little bit each week of the way they played under Mullen.
Like Auburn too, but haven't decided if I like them enough to risk my money. This one reminds me of Georgia/Florida where it's going down to the last possession and luck decides whether I'm on the right side of a half point or not. Wish this game was at night. if I ran the world all SEC games would be at night.
aTm interests me and I think gps.3 is right when he says the tank may be about empty for S Caro.
I don't see Bama breathing fire this week, but Miss State is just not good enough to bet on in my opinion, even in a spot like this. Seems to me like they lose a little bit each week of the way they played under Mullen.
Like Auburn too, but haven't decided if I like them enough to risk my money. This one reminds me of Georgia/Florida where it's going down to the last possession and luck decides whether I'm on the right side of a half point or not. Wish this game was at night. if I ran the world all SEC games would be at night.
aTm interests me and I think gps.3 is right when he says the tank may be about empty for S Caro.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
A friend of mine has a database that says Alabama is 3-7 ATS after a loss since 2008. This is probably a stay away game for me, because even if Alabama is disinterested, I have no faith in Miss St to cover. On the other hand, Alabama knows if they want to get into the playoff discussion, they need a comfortable win here
Brewers888
Potential 2028 V.P. Selection
I think Bama knows that they have to impress the rest of the way for any shot at the playoffs. A close win against Miss St would hurt tremendously so I expect them to run it up if they can.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
MOT is mostly right. No instate natural rival murks it up......
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I understand your situation. It's just amusing.
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
Pretty normal in the SEC this day and age.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
1-10 ATS in the regular season off a loss in prior game under Saban. 0-5 since the start of the 2011 season.
number2
Pretty much a regular
especially when they’re ranked 5th now.......
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
I find little relevancy to these 10 year datasets with numerous variables especially considering a different opposing head coach, defense, QB and on and on. Miss St is in for a rough day Saturday. It doesn’t matter which QB Bama rolls out they just have too many weapons for State to do any better than they did against LSU. Their only prayer is to run clock and sustain some drives to limit the # of TDS put up against them. Eventually, the dam will break and they will have to abort their only option at keeping the score anywhere near the spread. It’s not that they don’t want to compete with Alabama it’s just that they can’t.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Sorry if buried somewhere in this thread....Is Tua even playing Saturday? He looked beaten and limping pretty badly post-game LSU.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
All indications are that he will play. Saban's policy has always been that if a player is cleared medically, it is up to the player to decide if he can contribute at an acceptable level. If Alabama is able to get a big lead early, I could see him coming out of the game earlier than normal, but I expect him to start
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Those two words, "with Mullen" are the magic words, s--k.
Miss State is not close to what they were under Mullen. Hard for me to risk money on Bama giving that many points in this spot, but it's either that or pass.
Miss State is not close to what they were under Mullen. Hard for me to risk money on Bama giving that many points in this spot, but it's either that or pass.
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gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Oddly enough, I might feel better laying the points if Mac Jones is the QB rather than Tua. We know Mac is healthy and will certainly approach it as an opportunity to get a leg up for next year. Not saying Tua would give anything other than max effort, but you never know
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Line plummeting today. Hmm.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
On the other hand, teams ranked #5 in the playoff rankings are 18-6 ATS (beating the spread by an average of 9.50 points per game) and 12-2 ATS more recently, including Clemson's easy cover last week.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Can Bama afford to be complacent? With the uncertainty of a handful of teams jockeying for the 4 spot, I don't think so.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Tend to agree with this.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Nick Saban shares latest on Tua Tagovailoa ahead of Mississippi State game
Saban was asked about his QB on the weekly SEC media teleconference.
www.saturdaydownsouth.com
number2
Pretty much a regular
wasn’t easy cover till the end......the moose was knocking on the door with 5 mins left.....
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
No kidding. Right on the doorstep.
1H is the way to go w/ Clemson. I'm not stopping this weekend.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Bama down to 17. Dayum.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
It's getting into a range where I can't ignore it. Even if Tua doesn't play, I think there's value
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Agree. I'm on it. Outsider looking in, I'll argue that Tua not playing is just what the team may need in this circumstance. Would seemingly force everyone to be focused in rallying around Jones in a road game / hostile environment.
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
I'm probably the sucker in all this, no surprise.
LSU goes up by two scores with 1:37 left. Holding an LSU ticket, I felt good. Bet they did too.
In 16 s bama scores. Now it still needs possession to win, but that was twice receivers were so open I could have thrown it to them.
I'm not sure they couldn't cover if they laid down and Forrest Gump was playing qb1.
Messy St. not good.
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
I’ll inquire about the State suspensions. I’m going to play Bama for the game and smaller on first half. Will avoid first half total expecting Miss St to play best game of keep away possible. If they manage to stay in it for a quarter or so I’ll likely fire away at a reduced live line if the opportunity presents itself. I’ve decided to focus more on Georgia. Without a +2 to 3 turnover differential can’t see Auburn keeping it within 7.
PNGFROM2003
Where the brain matter, Splatters?
Pretty much but the others add some depth. So it’s about a 95% chance they will not be available Saturday. They’ll play in the 4 games that they have the best chance to win but aren’t necessarily gimmes.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
You have to assume they'll play against Ole Miss. Have they already played in 3 games this season?
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Did the ncaa suspension dictate how many games those involved must miss or are they trying to redshirt them?
Redshirting would be tricky because players these days can up and go somewhere else next year. So you think you saved a year, but you really saved a year for someone else.
Redshirting would be tricky because players these days can up and go somewhere else next year. So you think you saved a year, but you really saved a year for someone else.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I'm pretty sure they have an 8 game suspension, but could use it however they wanted
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
LSU has been utilizing this this year
