ULL @ UGA (Noon) UGA -20/45.5 ULL on some extra rest after game upset win Thursday against Ga So . ULL is 4-5 and while I'm sure they want this game they probably don't need it. When they look at the Nicholls result earlier this year I bet they believe they can compete here. UGA is in a nasty little sammich after upset win over Auburn and has GT on deck. I don't know how much time they dedicate to ULL prep here although they really need this one to bowl. ULL relies on run game and quick passing game and neither should work here. Boise and App St similar defenses to what UGA has - held them to 10 points - 3.66 ypp and 0 points - 3.51 ypp (45-10 -- 24-0). ULL defense has been much better than offense - front 7 and rush defense are really good and that's where you want to be good against UGA. I do get the sense they may try to get the pass game going some to get some work and especially because that is clearly the weak point of ULL defense - ULL hasn't allowed 200 yards rushing this season - Boise and NMSU are only teams that have really racked up tons of yardage against them. 14 feels like a top end projection for what ULL could do - UGA has given up more points than their defensive outputs suggest (they are a better defense than scoring D would indicate). Change in staff for Dawgs so can't really look to see how they handle late season cupcakes but I think at this point looking at Saban's methodology is best forecast of Smart's and that is to get a good half in and reps for backups most of 2H - I don't think that's apples to apples due to competition and state of respective programs. ULL tries to go fast which doesn't rate to go well for them considering UGA defense proficiency and their dominant TOP style offense - UGA only scored in 30's twice this year.
UTSA @ aTm (Noon) aTm -20/58.5 (I have no idea) UTSA already bowl eligible. aTm season derailed again. Sammich here between Ole Miss and LSU. UTSA really hasn't played any teams that are comparable to aTm this year athletically. 32-28 loss to Arizona State earlier this year but that doesn't really feel like a good comp. UTSA losses by 9, 4, 14 and 28. aTm with B2B losses and should have lost by larger margin to OM than they did. Team will prob give good effort against LSU but this is a turrible spot. I know almost nothing of UTSA, have only seen them once and just looking at their numbers they appear to be a total enigma. Hubenak looked awful for Ags and may have gotten hurt late but finished game. UTSA looks like a team that has WAY overachieved and their scoring numbers relative to output on both sides appear to be really skewed (they are prob a worse team than record indicates but I could be wrong) If I were a high school AD I wouldn't hire Sumlin to coach a high school team - he and Larry Fedora are the worst underachievers.
Florida @ LSU (1:00) LSU -10/35 Florida still in contention for SEC East, LSU no longer in SEC contention. Feels like there will be good bit of emotion after the reschedule and everything that transpired - players may not be as worked up as fanbases but I tend to think both teams will be full invested. Last season LSU won 35-28 in game full of odd scores - LSU won last 3 (35-28, 30-27 and 17-6) When originally scheduled LSU was less than FG fav at UF with a total of right around 40. Florida should really struggle to move the ball on LSU and I think the same could be said for LSU but I trust their ground game a lot more as neither team rates to throw well but if LSU can run then I think they can have some success passing. LSU will prob be pretty sizable favorite but not really any interest from me if it's around DD, which I expect, and I think at this point it would take a really big number to back UF which is mildly intriguing in what should be a super low scoring game. UF offense held under 300 yards three times this year (13, 24, 10 points) and the two smaller numbers seem realistic. LSU scoring outputs of 14, 13, 0 against defenses similar to Gators and defensively have held everybody expect OM to under 21. Both teams punt and cover kicks well so no big edge there in a field position game- prefer UF place-kicker to LSU's.
Mizzou @ Tennessee (3:30) Tenn -12.5/74.5 Mizzou 3-1 in the young series but Tenny won last year 19-8. Game much more important for UT than Mizzou. Stopping the run looks to be pretty troublesome for Mizzou in this one. On the other side I don't think that UT is going to be able to stop Mizzou from running it and the UT corners aren't to the same caliber as LSU and Florida which really gave them trouble. Tenny isn't the worst defense they will have faced but they are the type of team that I believe Mizzou can have success against. UK ran for almost 450 yards last week against UT and that is without a viable downfield passing threat.. The pace of this game should be very frenetic - very different than the pace (on paper) of Mizzou's last couple and Mizzou defense is worst FBS group Tenn will face this year although they have improved marginally past couple but Vandy did go over 400 but failed to cash in. Kicking game and finishing still issue for Mizzou but the line is going to be absurdly high if the UT/UK line is any indicator and I'm very interested in potentially backing Mizzou and over. Side came in tighter than I expected, total was in range - I bet Over 64
WCU @ USCe (4:00) USCe -34.5/57 Should have full focus from USCe here as this is their money game. ECU beat them in the opener 52-7. Yardage was 320-688, FD 15-28 and 9.7 - 4.9 ypp edge and this included a scoreless 4Q. WCU went to two SEC schools last year - lost 55-10 at Tenn and 41-17 at aTm. WCU avg 24 ppg and gives up 34 ppg. Rush defense big problem for WCU - 288 ypg at 5.5 ypc and they give up 504 total ypg at 6.5 ypp. USCe is going to score a ton here - they should easily go over 500 yards and score in 40's. Looks like 2Q and 3Q have really been bad for WCU they get outscored roughly 2:1 in those two. WCU balanced offensively, just about 50/50 split run/pass but pass offense appears bit stronger. Hard to imagine them doing a ton here. Clemson on deck but this is a rare time where USCe looks like they could really let loose if they want to - hard to tell whether the QB's split reps late and even if they do I think that's more incentive to look to back USCe here as I don't think they just totally let up. They were +35 and +36 last year on their SEC road tour with totals of 62 and 63. Furman beat WCU 49-21 last game, had two guys rush for 100+ in a 600+ yard total offense output. I bet over 46.5 and like it a lot
Austin Peay @ Kentucky (4:30) Kentucky -49/73.5 Similar to USCe, Cats should be fully focused for the money game. Troy was -41 and total was 55.5 in the opener and they beat AP 57-17. AP gives up 45 ppg to OVC teams, give up 250 ypg at over 6 ypc - on offense they run a lot but not well, 4 ypc, and even though UK isn't great stopping run they have been a lot better and I think they can really limit AP - although the injuries to UK on the defensive side of the ball, particularly to Jones proved to be a huge deal against Vols. This is going to be a real mauling, I think. In 2015 USM beat them 52-5, Vandy 47-7 in 2014 Memphis beat them 63-0. I may lay the biggest number I have here and perhaps over as well - AP coming off 67-30 loss, to EASTERN Kentucky. Total came in higher than I had hoped but it's not out of the question that the Cats get 70 (I feel sick saying that..) I laid the 42.5 with UK and this is not basketball - by far the biggest favorite I've ever taken.
Arkansas @ Miss State (7:00) Miss St PICK/62.5 Arkansas off LSU loss and has roadie at Mizzou to wrap things up. Bowl bid secure but it's NOVEMBERT and the annual quest to be nation's best is in full swing but suffered derailing loss to LSU in which the rush defense and poor OL play showed up again. Miss St coming off aTm upset win at home, loss at Bama and has Egg Bowl next. Miss St won 51-50 last year and have won last 3. This is a streaky series - Miss St wen 4-0-1 first 5 in series, Arky then went 15-2 and most recently it's been Miss St 3-0. I think many people are going to be very interested in Arky if this line opens as low as I think it may. Miss St should run a good bit on Arky, three SEC-W foes have run for 350+, and the Hawgs should be able to pass as much as they like against Miss St secondary. Teams total contrasts in pace but I would lean toward this being a higher scoring game. Last year there was 1,100+ yards and 101 points. Dak threw for 500, B Allen threw 7 TD and Miss St blocked a late FG to win. I bet Over 57.5
Chattanooga @ Alabama (7:00) Alabama -45/52 Chatt is 8-1 oustcoring teams 36-17. They are really solid on defense. 6.5 - 4.4 ypp edge. Their problem is going to be moving the ball - they are about 63% run and that's not good against Bama. Bama has played them a few times over the years 49-0 in 2013 and they tend to use this game to get backups reps. No real interest in the game - stay healthy and get ready for Iron Bowl. Bama clearly emphasized the pass game last week against Miss St and that certainly impacted the total and that wouldn't surprise me to see Hurts work some deep shots here as well to prep for the stretch title run.
aAm @ Auburn (7:30) Auburn -56/63 Alabama A&M is bad. 55-0 loss to MTSU in the opener as 48 pt dogs with total of 62.5. 681-146 yardage edge and 35-6 FD. 52-10 losers at Cincy last year. They avg 26 and give up 38. They are pretty balanced but better running than passing. They are real bad on defense - Auburn should do whatever they want. Get the seniors reps in last home game and stay healthy for Iron Bowl. Not sure Auburn mindset coming off loss - my guess is Pettway and maybe White sit this one out. This seems like exactly the type of team that Franklin will just torch and stoke the flame of unrealistic hope that he can be a good SEC QB.
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt (8:00) Vanderbilt +10.5/54 The Patty Football era is officially underway. He made a few throws that showed it was his first game but he made even more that Jesse Palmer so accurately pointed out were Johnny Football-esque. Ole Miss dominated the game and deservedly won late on a late second FG. Rush defense held up very well, Ags under 4 ypc and they face a Vandy team here that can't pass and relies totally on run game. Both teams gotta have this, OM 5-5 with Egg Bowl on tap and Vandy 4-6 with Vols next. Vandy has given up big yards to couple teams but only two have cracked 30+. Not gonna back OM here as fav, catching DD with the kid last week was a gift but laying it here isn't what I'm wanting to do. I bet over 49.5 smaller - Patty Football throws 8 TD and kicks an XP
Louisville @ Houston (Thursday 7:30) Houston +10/62.5 Expectations couldn't be further from where they are for both teams now versus pre-season - I believe I saw Louisville -1 multiple times on GOY lines. Ville gets prime time spot here to lock up LJ Heisman and perhaps impress the CFP committee and cement their spot. Houston, or more importantly Tom Herman, has another big opportunity to bolster his resume and make a bit more money this off-season. Houston has two losses this year and both teams did what they had previously proven that no one can do on them - run. Navy went 63 for 306 and SMU 40 for 178. Their other 7 games they allowed 49 ypg at 1.7 ypc (before Tulane). Louisville has 30 (before Wake) rushing TD on the year and have only been held below 4 ypc once - they avg 6.41 ypc. On the other side of the ball, Ville has pretty good rush defense in their own right. They allow 3.01 ypc and only 3 TD for entire season (before Wake). Clemson is the only team that has gotten to 200 against them at 6.48 ypc and part of the reason they did it was because Clemson runs Watson more in big games and I tend to think Ward will do some of the same stuff he did - aside from Clemson no one has even gotten 4 ypc. Passing is the way to beat both of these teams - that happens to be Houston's offensive strength and their weaker area on defense. Ville though throws it really well, at least explosively, and they are one of best pass defenses in country - even better than their gaudy rush defense numbers. This could be a really fun game. Ville is so inconsistent and Houston is actually regressing pretty badly, Tulane actually outgained them last week and Wake outplayed Ville for most of 1H before UH poured on two late scores - Bobby P clearly running up score for playoff purposes. I've learned betting against Houston in big games is not fun and betting against a team like Ville that has everything to play for and gain is prob unwise also. Past two years Houston has losses by 3, 6 and 22 and scalps of Louisville, FSU and Houston. Will prob stay sidelined and pull for LJ to stay healthy and cash my Heisman bet unless it's totaled 70's - not sure on this one as both QB for Houston are beat up - def more incentive for an under. Dang it, another Ville under to sweat - U70
UVA @ GT (12:30) GT -9.5/57.5 GT winners of 3 of last 4. I don't think this UVA staff has seen option so not much to glean from past years. UVA much better against run than pass and that is obviously where GT is going to attack. The weakness of the GT defense is through the air and that is where UVA can hurt them. While UVA has been inconsistent passing they have shown flashes - the teams that can pass have done quite well against GT - (304, 241, 305, 353) but they actually don't give up many passing TD even as poor as they are defending it. I think UVA will be less interested - their super bowl will be against VT the following week. GT has UGA next week and coming off huge upset in Blacksburg. That win is somewhat inexplicable to me - backup center, QB and B back and a track record of not being able to move it on Foster's defenses and they play far and away their most complete game of the season on all phases. I have no feel for either of these teams right now, I will pass unless something is crazy.
Miami @ NC State (12:30) NC St PICK/51 Been a few since these guys have played. Miami is bowl eligible now and NC State is fighting for it. I tend to think that is more significant for NCSU here and we should see better effort from them considering that they have UNC next and this is much more winnable. Miami doesn't have a rivalry game so no look ahead but they just got bowl eligible at UVA . Miami rush offense not very good and NC St tough to run on so I get the sense they throw it around a bit more than usual. Pass defense pretty suspect for NC St so would think they exploit that although th Dungey-less Orange couldn't last week. Teams that pass well have scored 33, 24, 54, 24 on NC St. I tend to think Miami doesn't get to 30 here. NC St inconsistent running football but Miami defense has regressed latter part of schedule as they faced more athletic teams. I think I like NC State here a bit as a dog - FSU opened -8 so Miami will be at least -3 I would guess. Looks to be lower scoring and close but prob not a game that gets messed up.
UConn @ BC (1:00) BC -6/31.5 Which game will be totaled lower - this one or UF/LSU? BC is going to be at least a TD favorite here and I'd have them as an underdog to score 20 points. Both need this bad for any shot at bowl - UConn would have to get the 5 win bowl bid deal as they are sitting on 3 wins and extra time to prep here. Handsome Bob Diaco burned the redshirt of his QB Donovan Williams last game against Temple and that didn't go so hot - they scored 0 and had 160 yards of offense - that was after demoting their OC and putting a new guy in place. Now, I suppose this extra time could help but I just don't know they are about as bad as it gets on offense. BC defense stops the run well which is all UConn can do and the BC offense is almost as bad as UConns. I don't think you could pay me to watch this game. This game gonna be played in a phone booth. I
bet Under 40.5
Duke @ Pitt (3:00) Pitt -5.5/63 Per usual, Pitt secondary ripe for exploitation - how about Watson last week 580 through air. Duke rush defense average at best and should have tough time stopping Pitt. Pitt 5-1 in series past 6 and 31-13 winners last season. Duke with a bit of extra time here after hosting UNC last week on Thursday. Both should be motivated but Duke morseo as they need it to bowl. Perhaps slight lookahead for Duke to Miami after the 8 lateral final play loss last season but that doesn't seem to be huge factor here. 7 Pitt games have been 1 score and Duke has 5 so both know how to play in tight games - Duke has losses of 10, 11, 14, 10, 3, 3. Great spot to back Duke here, I think. Gotta be a letdown factor for Pitt moreso than Duke even though both won as DD dogs. I really like the advantage of Cutcliffe and co scheming against this Pitt "defense". I bet Duke +8
VT @ ND (3:30) ND +5.5/58.5 VT coming off option with GT and oddly enough, ND coming off option, twice. Needless to say both teams will actually see a little pace and some forward passing with two very good QB's going at it. Here is the key to the game - is the ND actually getting better or is it a product of playing a hurricane game against NC St, Stanford, Miami, Navy, Army the past 5? I tend to think they may have gotten a bit better but it's more a product of playing about as weak a 5 offenses that I can remember. VT defense is in fact very good however they have shown against good passing teams they can be had ECU, Cuse and Miami all went 300+ through air. Both teams with rivalry games on deck and VT off loss to GT where they could have secured the division after UNC loss. I like VT better in every phase but prob won't lay the TD (prob less now after their loss) or so. ND has to have for bowl and VT now out of playoff hunt really needs the game next week and this one takes back seat which is not what I had anticipated. I don't think I want to lay close to a TD with VT here - well, I won't have to - I bet Hokies +3
Citadel @ UNC (3:30) UNC -16.5/64.5 Citadel is really good FCS team. The run for an astronomical 374 ypg in their triple option offense. They actually beat USCe last season 23-22 in game where they ran for 350 yards on them - unsurprisingly, that was the game after Florida and before Clemson for the Cocks - the absolute worst time you want to see a triple option team would be in this spot - between rivalry games on the second to last game of the year. Citadel has the 15th ranked total defense in FCS, 12th scoring defense, 24th pass d and 26th rush defense. They are a military institute so you can count on them to compete and be disciplined. UNC pass offense in particular, but whole offense is outstanding and they are going to do damage to an undermatched Citadel defense. However, I love the potential for success that the Citadel offense can have against this Jim Chizik defense - UNC is rush defense is 100th nationally and as I previously mentioned, this is just a terrible spot to get the Citadel who are playing for an undefeated season and another Power 5 scalp. UNC will be favored by more than 3 TD here and I will gladly take Citadel here. I'm super excited about the potential in this one. GT option had 500+ yards offense in a super deceptively lopsided game few weeks ago. Not sure on total - UNC pace wise similar to Samford (156 plays, 58 pass 89 run Samford is all pass and Citadel all run but Citadel had the ball the whole game in 37-34 win. Citadel similar pace to Navy so here we have similar pacing on paper to Navy/Tulsa last week (High 60's) or even GT/UNC which was a low 60's total, 38-20 final but 1,100 yards on 138 plays) I think Trubisky is one of nation's best QB but he is consistently put in poor positions due to staff's inability to do their jobs. I'm going to bet Citadel almost certainly. I bet The Citadel +23.5 and Over 55.5
FSU @ Syracuse (3:30) Cuse +14.5/65 (Assuming Dungey although doubtful - his loss is very significant so total would be lower and side longer) FSU should really do whatever they want on offense here. Florida game on deck so definitely not interested in laying couple TD on the road here. The blue(ish) bloods have scored 62, 45, 50, 17, 54 on Orange defense. Cuse managed 28, 20, 33, 31 and 0 in those games. Avg score of first 4 - 44-28. That spread likely falls in line with what we see here but total rates to be good bit lower and over would be the direction of interest for me here in the Carrier dome. Dungey status key here - he has been out past two games and they have become a terrible football team without him. FSU is just getting a lot better after growing up at QB, learning to overcome defensive losses in secondary and playing some mortal offenses. If this is totaled too low again I could be on the over - yep, I bet Over 53.5 smaller
Clemson @ Wake (7:00) Wake +21/48.5 Clemson off Pitt loss and USCe on deck. Wake off Ville and already bowl eligible. Clemson winners of last 7 (last 6 avg score 38-15). Wake shouldn't be able to move the ball at all here but I do think they can limit Clemson some and they should have class relief actually coming off Ville game. Wake a 35 pt dog at Ville and mid 50's total - should both be less here. Will prob get a playable under here with the help of a potential Pitt/Clemson shootout - yep, the shootout happened.
SEC:
Mizzou/Tennessee Over 64
Kentucky -42.5
Austin Peay/Kentucky Over 58.5/60.5/64.5
WCU/USCe Over 41/42.5/43.5/46.5
Arkansas/Miss St Over 57.5
Ole Miss/Vandy Over 49.5 (smaller)
UTC/Alabama Under 62/65.5/69.5/71
aAm/Auburn Under 76/77.5
ACC:
Louisville/Houston Under 70
L. Jackson Under 137.5 rushing yards +100 (smaller)
G. Ward Under 280.5 passing yards +100 (smaller)
UConn/BC Under 40.5
Duke +8
VT +3
The Citadel +23.5/24.5
The Citadel/UNC Over 48.5/52.5/55.5
FSU/Syracuse Over 53.5 (smaller)
Other:
Texas State/New Mexico State Over 61.5 (smaller)
Temple/Tulane Under 53
Ohio State/Michigan State Under 61.5
Umass +31
Umass TT O13
