SEC Week 11

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 11 games:

aTm (-12) vs Ole Miss

Kentucky (-4) @ Tennessee

AU (+14.5) @ UGA

Alabama (-26) vs Miss St

Vandy (+14.5) @ Mizzou

Florida (-6.5) vs S Carolina

LSU (-13) @ Arkansas
 
My PR lines:

aTm -13.5

UK -7.5

UGA -13

Alabama -26.5

Mizzou -11.5

Florida -8.5

LSU -14
 
Like Vandy 1H cause let-down spot for Mizzou. Plus Schurmur can exploit that secondary unlike Franks lol
 
I'm wondering if Vandy can win?

I also think it is possible that Miss St O could challenge Bama more than LSU O. That isn't saying much, but taking the opponents into consideration (aTm and LaTech), MSU has appeared to figure some things out and playing with some confidence. Atleast it could make me want to watch the game instead of just checking the Bama finals which is what I normally do.

I'm also interested in the SC-UF game this week.

Chances Auburn makes the game vs Georgia competitive?
 
Kentucky and LSU have to be on let down alert too. Luckily they are playing probably the 2 worst teams in the league

LSU especially. Gotta be deflated. Kentucky is more of a cinderella story anyways so not sure what their expectations had been anyways? And don‘t they get up to smack Tenny?
 
LSU especially. Gotta be deflated. Kentucky is more of a cinderella story anyways so not sure what their expectations had been anyways? And don‘t they get up to smack Tenny?

I'm not sure which way to take the UK situation. The way the Missouri game ended and the hype that surrounded the Georgia game may be tough to get up from. Traditionally yes, UK has really cared about the Tennessee game, although they did win last year. A game UK trailed in the 4th, were favored by 4 and won by 3 with Vols outgaining them by 74 yards. UK -4TOs. This is a better UK team and that was a worse UT team that what they have now. The flat spot vs Charlotte was somewhat predictable although UT played much worse than even the most optimistic 49er fan could've envisioned. UT is better than we saw last week no doubt, if we get the kind of performance they played with at SC and at Auburn then Vols could win.
 
I'm not sure which way to take the UK situation. The way the Missouri game ended and the hype that surrounded the Georgia game may be tough to get up from. Traditionally yes, UK has really cared about the Tennessee game, although they did win last year. A game UK trailed in the 4th, were favored by 4 and won by 3 with Vols outgaining them by 74 yards. UK -4TOs. This is a better UK team and that was a worse UT team that what they have now. The flat spot vs Charlotte was somewhat predictable although UT played much worse than even the most optimistic 49er fan could've envisioned. UT is better than we saw last week no doubt, if we get the kind of performance they played with at SC and at Auburn then Vols could win.

I think putting them as one of the bottom 2 teams in the SEC is an overreaction to what we just saw. I still tend to think that Vandy and Ole Miss are worse for now.
 
I agree that there should not be an overreaction to the Charlotte game, generally if we look back to their last 4 SEC, or atleast 3 of their last 4 excluding Bama, the games starting with Georgia, Aub, SC people were saying more positive things about UT than negative and there were definite signs of life and Pruitt was earning some respect for his work. I will believe we have a much better chance of seeing one of those Tennessee teams than the team we saw last week. The 64,000 dollar question is as it often is when trying to pick these things, will that be good enough?

UK is better, proved doubters at every turn short of last week and definitely has a higher ceiling on what they can do if they play their well rounded A game. I think we should also remember that this is a UK team that did not run a play in aTm territory until OT and was held under 300y vs Vandy and hasn't scored more than 17 pts the last 4 weeks. They run, they play great defense and they make timely plays. Good team. So, can their O have more success vs UT? I would assume UK's D will be rock solid again, what kind of success might UT be able to have if any?
 
I agree that there should not be an overreaction to the Charlotte game, generally if we look back to their last 4 SEC, or atleast 3 of their last 4 excluding Bama, the games starting with Georgia, Aub, SC people were saying more positive things about UT than negative and there were definite signs of life and Pruitt was earning some respect for his work. I will believe we have a much better chance of seeing one of those Tennessee teams than the team we saw last week. The 64,000 dollar question is as it often is when trying to pick these things, will that be good enough?

UK is better, proved doubters at every turn short of last week and definitely has a higher ceiling on what they can do if they play their well rounded A game. I think we should also remember that this is a UK team that did not run a play in aTm territory until OT and was held under 300y vs Vandy and hasn't scored more than 17 pts the last 4 weeks. They run, they play great defense and they make timely plays. Good team. So, can their O have more success vs UT? I would assume UK's D will be rock solid again, what kind of success might UT be able to have if any?

Obviously, Tennessee has really struggled running the ball this year, and that’s where Georgia really succeeded last week. However, Tennessee did sit out a couple key offensive guys last week, including their top 2 playmakers in Chandler and Jennings.
 
I haven't seen the totals yet, but I'm eyeing some unders this weekend: AU/UGA, LSU/Ark, and UK/UT

LSU has handled Arkansas easily the last 2 years coming off Alabama losses, so I'm not jumping to fade them this year either. If the defense shows up, I think they can grind out a 28-10 type win.

I want to be able to take the points with AU, but I don't trust their offense at all and could see this game going sideways on them much like the SEC Championship game did last year.

No clue on UK/Tenn. Unchartered territory for UK, hard to know their emotional state. Tenn will play hard no doubt, but wonder how much they have in the tank after such a brutal stretch of games.

Miss St defense will likely have some early success, but I don't think their offense will do much of anything against the Alabama defense. Another game that could get sideways without a break or two for MSU. Gonna ride the Alabama 1H train again.

No real opinion on Mizzou/Vandy. 3rd straight road game for Vanderbilt, though they were off last week.

SC has played 4 straight one possession games, going 3-1. Florida has a real problem at QB. Lean Gamecocks here
 

Appealing to the last known motivational angle, "play for yourself". Hey if a guy isn't doing enough for the Gators, for the team, have some pride and competitiveness in yourself and go out and win, beat somebody, kick somebodies' ass in something.
 
Like Vandy 1H cause let-down spot for Mizzou. Plus Schurmur can exploit that secondary unlike Franks lol

My concern here is franks freakin torched vandy secondary, not good!! Tigers have also ran all over vandy last 2 meetings which made life incredibly easy for lock.

You know how bad I am with these situational spots but totally agree this a great one to be against mizzou, they think beating gators was some signature great win! (This regime so garbage! Lol).

I already talked about in dog thread but can never have too much discussion! The way I’m seeing this thing is if you like vandy to cover ya gotta like the over cause unless mizzou just absolutely flat I think they can hang a big number here.

For vandy to take tigers down they gotta come out w a aggressive passing attack game plan much like Purdue did agAinst us earlier this year. Gators tried which was stupid on their part cause obviously franks is terrible and it just killed gators defense with those 45 second 3 and out “drives” gators offense showcased!! Lol.. in this case tho it absolutely the right move for vandy imo, if they try to run on early downs and get themselves into 3rd and longs it could get ugly. Their defense ain’t stopping tigers anyways so they gotta attack on early downs thru the air!!! This might be 1st sec over I play on a mizzou gm this yeAr!!
 
Miss St DC Shoop:

“I think we’re built to compete with these guys,” Shoop said. “Our guys are big and strong up front, and we’re fairly talented in the secondary. I think there are some good matchups that we can exploit.”
 
If Bama beats Miss St 45-10, more power to them. Kind of looking for reasons to back the Bulldogs, but Tua. However, with Jalen banged up, Tua too it probably makes sense for Saban to be conservative when in control
 
If Bama beats Miss St 45-10, more power to them. Kind of looking for reasons to back the Bulldogs, but Tua. However, with Jalen banged up, Tua too it probably makes sense for Saban to be conservative when in control

I think this is one of the tighter MOV in series that Bama has with SEC foes, it is always following LSU game:

2017 - 7
2016 - 48
2015 - 25
2014 - 5
2013 - 13
2012 - 31
2011 - 17
2010 - 20
2009 - 28
2008 - 25
2007 - MSU by 5 (Saban 1st year)
2006 - MSU by 8 (Croom)
 
Soo tempted for Arky. Does lot of high profile recruits visiting tend to mean anything? Coaches expecting rowdy crowd?
 
I think they just pick games vs high profile opponents for the environment of a meaningful game. They play for a trophy, so it is one of those games.
 
Ark has better run D on a ypc basis. Both played Bama, LSU has faced tougher opponents though (Georgia, Florida).

Ark ran for 155y 5.5ypc on Bama (Boyd 102).
 
I actually think Auburn plays well this weekend and covers and gives them a scare for the win. I also think they are an average team with poor coaching so there is that as well. Small play for me that I'm sure I'll regret.
 
Ark has better run D on a ypc basis. Both played Bama, LSU has faced tougher opponents though (Georgia, Florida).

Ark ran for 155y 5.5ypc on Bama (Boyd 102).

Georgia was clearly off its game though against LSU. Fromm, defense, basically everybody. Then four fourth-down conversions is pretty nuts
 
Last 2 years in "letdown spot" following Bama LSU has blasted Arky I believe. Arky steam today down to 11.
 
Kicker out for a&m, Harvey, db out.

I wanna play ole miss but I lack real reasons

I like that "real reasons".

Well, I'm not playing it but looked it over...aTm not a great RZ O or RZ D team in terms of TD % (rank 105th and 108th). aTm pass D pass eff rating ranks 113th and Ta'amu ranks 14. aTm gets sacked 10% of their attempts (allowed 31 sacks this year) and they have bad 3rd down conv %.

With that said, again, I am not betting it, but those are some statistical reasons to not like aTm. I'm sure there are plenty of reasons to not like Ole Miss too.
 
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