Miss St @ Alabama (Noon) Miss St +24.5/47.5 Miss St off huge home win against aTm and FCS prior with Arkansas on deck. Bowl hopes still alive. Alabama off of 10-0 win at LSU and bye prior with FCS on deck. Miss St only gotten to DD once in past 5 games in series - avg score Bama 30- Miss St 9. Miss St offense and inability to pass against good defense should be real trouble for them although Fitzgerald is growing into better QB but shouldn't have tons of open looks to Ross like they had last game. Not great spot for Bama coming off LSU but Miss St shouldn't be able to score much. Prob will be lethargic and low scoring. I don't trust a team that can only run to score much on Bama (see LSU 2010-2016) I bet under 57 big
USCe @ UF (Noon) UF -7.5/37.5 USCe coming off Umass win, Tenn win and had Mizzou at home where they played really well and won by 10. USCe much better with Bentley under center. They are going to have trouble moving ball here consistently. Muschamp back to swamp... UF off bye, UGA win and trip to Arky in which they were just destroyed in all phases. Need this for division and trips to Baton Rouge and Tallahassee on deck. Tricky little spot for UF - few defensive matchups in their favor but situationals in favor of USCe. UF without LDR and arguably top LB duo in nation. UF will be big fav - no way I would lay anything large - should be low scoring and will be totaled super low prob. UF can't run or pass right now and USCe has both trending in the right way and a good enough defense to slow/stop anything the Appleby's wanna do. I bet USCe +17 - really like that one.
Kentucky @ Tennessee (Noon) UT -4/58 Kentucky off three straight wins, before the night game against UGA where they lost late. Tenny off bye and then loss at USCe and killed FCS on scoreboard but game was closer than 55-0 looking at box. Team still in disarray. Tenn strong rush offense and poor rush defense. Kentucky strong rush offense and poor rush defense. Tenn 30-1 last 31 games and past few years have been UT blowouts but it doesn't feel like that this game. Gran has shown he will just commit to run the wildcat up and down field and I trust him to coach to his teams strengths while Debord is prob the worst coordinator in SEC (DC Cross at Mizzou giving him nice run) Vols going to be lined way too high, I think - yep, I bet UK +14 -115.
Auburn @ UGA (3:30) UGA +7.5/45.5 Auburn coming off win @ Ole Miss, Vandy close win at home and FCS on deck. UGA coming off bye, UF loss and trip to UK where Eason drove them late and got the win in gutty game. Auburn rush offense has turned lethal 2H of year although QB and RB situation is murky with injuries and stopping run is strength of UGA defense. I worry about the depth of the UGA front 7 - very young and not much quality depth on DL and they will need it here. UGA can't pass and Auburn super tough to run on but has lot of injuries to LB corp. Looks to be very low scoring and a game where Auburn can salt it away late. Would be mildly concerned how UGA defense holds up for 4Q so if given chance to bet under, would consider 1H. UGA winners of past 2 and 4 of past 5. Auburn with more to play for but should get fully focused effort from Dawgs I think. I bet under 50.5
Vanderbilt @ Missouri (3:30) Mizzou -4.5/52 Vanderbilt off bye and trip to Auburn where they competed very well - Shurmur completed better than 50% of his passes against SEC foe for first time in career. Have to win this one to have shot at bowl game - OM and UT games at home to round out year. Mizzou off trip to Columbia, SC where they played much better and certainly deserved better than a 10 pt loss - defense was improved with Odom's change - @ Tenn and Arky to finish. Webb should be able to run some on Mizzou defense but I'm not sure how much they can do. Mizzou offense should be able to move it against over matched Vandy defense but I'm growing tired of Lock and his inconsistency. Somebody has to win, I think it will be Mizzou and early market indications agree.
LSU @ Arkansas (7:00) Arky +4/49 LSU off bye and Bama game in which the offense fell back into old ways. They rarely play well in the game following Bama - win or lose. Arkansas off bye and demolishing UF - defense was fantastic for Hogs and offense NOVEMBERT balanced. Matchup wise LSU with one main edge, they should be able to run against Hogs and I also things Hogs can have success if they can establish the run. Pace should be slow but get sense there could be lots of big plays. Hogs 2-0 last 2 years and Hogs have only been blown out once in past 10 years. Game is very often decided by one score. Played Hogs +14 on GOY line.
Ole Miss @ aTm (7:30) aTm -6.5/76.5 (*Before last game not sure how to adjust right now*) Ole Miss off 3 losses and then hosted Ga So and the option last week and got the win but prob lost Chad Kelly in 3Q to a knee. They just pounded the ball after that and didn't burn Patterson's redshirt. aTm off Bama, NMSU and trip to Starkville where they got embarrassed and lost their QB as well- neither have much of a lookahead. OM winners of past 2 and 2 of past 4. I had this as an almost surefire over bet but no idea what to do with anything as of now. I bet Ole Miss +20 and Over 52.5/54 large and don't care if Beavis and Butthead split the QB reps those are absurd numbers, IMO. Does Freeze pull Shea's shirt in an attempt to win out for audition for Oregon job where we would be competing with Mullen in interview room? I had aTm less than a TD fav before either team played last week and at most Kelly worth a full TD (he would be about as valuable as any player to team).
UNC @ Duke (Thurs 7:30) Duke +7.5/61 UNC off bye and hosting GT where they won huge but it was super deceptive - GT had 7+ ypp and 500+ yards offense. Duke off close loss to GT and most recently close home loss to VT where they played a good 2H. Duke has to have this for any hopes to go bowling. Duke pass defense is their weak point and UNC should have a lot of success against them in that area. UNC 22-3 SU since 1990. Duke winners in '12 and '13 but UNC last two 66-31 and 45-20. Should be good tempo and I think both teams matchup well to score. I took Duke +11.5 smaller and Over 54 bigger.
BC @ FSU (Fri 7:30) FSU -17.5/48 BC off win over NC St and home game against Ville where they were lambasted 52-7. FSU off Clemson loss and tricky trip to NC St where they scored late and won 24-20. FSU has weaknesses protecting the QB and against the pass and BC can't throw so shouldn't exploit that too bad and don't get after the QB particularly well this year. BC rush defense is tough and that is where FSU will want to pound. All around looks to be pretty defensive and slow paced - BC not a threat to get past 14 (VT - 0, Clemson 10, Ville 7) and FSU unlikely to hang huge number (Clemson and Ville both 50+ though..). FSU winners of past 6 most recently 14-0 and 20-17. I took Under 52.5
NC State @ Cuse (12:30) Cuse PICK/59.5 (Assuming Dungey in and 100%) NC State killed at Ville, embarrassed at home by BC and lost to FSU at home in a game where they played pretty well and were prob unlucky not to win. NC St needs this one to bowl and Cuse absolutely has to have this one. Cuse off bye and trip to Clemson where they lost QB Dungey in 1Q and were embarrassed 54-0 - FSU on deck. NC St 8-1 all time versus Cuse but really nothing I infer due to Cuse coaching change. NC St running game much better last game against FSU than they were against BC. NC St vulnerable against pass and it really all comes down to Dungey status - he has gotten destroyed all season and his injury this time was to head/non throwing shoulder but no status updates. I suppose his backup could fill in and do fine with 1st team reps all week but wouldn't feel comfortable doing much without Dungey.
Miami @ UVA (2:00) UVA +6/58.5 Miami collapsing down stretch and had lost 4 in row before crushing Pitt. Nothing going particularly well for them but losses in trenches impacting them on both sides although Kaaya had a career day against Pitt secondary which is a weekly occurrence for ACC QB's. Miami needs this to go bowling. UVA off close home loss to Ville and trip to Wake where they lost 27-20 in a game they were -3 in TO and both teams inept offensively. Teams split past two years and UVA usually plays them well. UVA all pass on offense and can't stop pass on defense. Miami started out running all over teams but now their true colors show and they can't run but pass pretty well and should be able to move it against Hoos secondary. Hard to gauge UVA mindset here and not sure I'm ready to buy Miami bounce because all Pitt games really mean nothing and should generally be discarded.
Pitt @ Clemson (3:30) Clemson -16/68.5 (Assuming Watson 100%) Clemson off FSU win and just crushed Cuse that was down a QB and they lost Watson for part of 1H and all of 2H as well. Pitt comes to town here and should be their toughest test left on the schedule. Pitt off home loss to VT and trip to Miami where they got a number hung on them. Pitt secondary should get destroyed by Clemson pass offense and Pitt offense facing a rush defense that is super tough to run on. Not a great matchup for Pitt on paper but gut tells me they can compete here they do most games and they are just a team that can't be confined to paper. Pitt had 3 losses by combined 11 points before Miami game and lost by 23 but that was inflamed - field position/TO ultimately cost them big. Only defense comparable to Clemson Pitt has faced was VT and they scored 36 at almost 8 ypp. Pitt has faced a bunch of good offenses and they all score mid 30's+ and Pitt actually hasnt been held to less than 28 since the opener. This is a hard game to handicap for me.
GT @ VT (3:30) VT -11/58.5 (Assuming healthy QB and C for GT - both left game last week) GT off the Carolinas and now have the Virginias. VT off Duke and have ND up next but shouldnt be a look ahead with ND being down and the division being on the line in conference. GT 1-5 last 6 against VT and they haven't score more than 27 in that stretch. This is now quite a few times that Foster has seen the option and I like him to make a plan. GT was lucky against Duke two weeks ago and unlucky last week to be beaten in the manner they were. GT offense has been really good past couple games and defense not so much - past two games against Duke and UNC have avg 1,159 yards - the GT defense may be horrid, I think they could be. Pace would be concern backing points - couldn't back VT here would be dog or nothing on side.
Wake @ Ville (7:00) Ville -28/53.5 Wake off home loss to Army and got pretty fortunate to beat UVA last week. Ville off close win @ UVA and just mauled @ BC. Wake offense should do nothing and their rush defense is pretty good but pass offense looks to be in trouble. Just really looks lopsided though Ville has shown they will give up 13-14 to even the dregs. That seems like a reasonable top end output for Wake who hasn't faced any athletic defenses really except FSU who held them to 250 and 6 points. Wake has given up 500+ twice and that is probably likely as long as Ville interested. 20-19 and 20-10 last two games. Wake rarely blown out only time they've lost by 4TD+ past two years was 50-14 against UNC in 2015. As always with Ville games - side and totally pretty much have outcome determined midway through 1Q. If Ville scores twice fast it's curtains - if Wake can dig in I think their defense could keep them in it for a bit. I bet under 58.5 and will prob add Wake but not in hurry.
SEC:
Arkansas +14 (GOY Line)
USCe +17
Kentucky +14 -115
Ole Miss +20
Miss St/Alabama Under 57
Auburn/UGA Under 50.5
Ole Miss/aTm Over 52.5 & 54
ACC:
Duke +11.5
UNC/Duke Over 54
BC/FSU Under 52.5
Wake/Ville Under 58.5
Other:
WMU/Kent State Under 56
Toledo -6.5 (smaller)
Northwestern/Purdue Over 56.5
Penn State/Indiana Over 57.5
Tulsa/Navy Under 75 (smaller)
South Florida -2.5 (smaller)
